| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Joseph Gedeon | | 
Polish Air Force MiG-29 aircraft perform during a military parade in Warsaw, Poland, Saturday, Aug. 15, 2015. | Czarek Sokolowski/AP Photo | With help from Paul McLeary, Connor O'Brien and Rebecca Kern Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Poland can send its warplanes to Ukraine without the Biden administration's approval. No, really, it can — right now, actually. But the issue is Warsaw doesn't want to, not that President JOE BIDEN unilaterally blocked the handover to Kyiv. This straightforward point — that Poland is in charge of its MiG-29s, not America — has gotten lost in the brouhaha over the botched U.S.-Poland deal. After a broader secret arrangement was errantly made public by the European Union's top diplomat, Washington worked for weeks with Warsaw to salvage the warplane transfer to Ukraine. Ultimately it fell through because Poland wanted the U.S. to act as the middleman instead of directly giving the keys to Ukrainian pilots. The reason? Fear, from all sides. "They are worried about Russia responding with military strikes against Polish bases, including nuclear strikes," someone familiar with the Polish government's thinking told NatSec Daily. In effect, Poland passed the buck to the U.S., hoping America would take the heat while guaranteeing F-16s as a backfill. Biden and his team didn't think that was a good idea. Not only did the U.S. fear an open handover of warplanes would ratchet up tensions, but officials in the Pentagon and intelligence community made clear the costs would outweigh the benefits. The president agreed with them, leading the administration to express its opposition to the deal, even though they repeatedly said Poland maintains the sovereign right to give Ukraine its fighter jets. "The transfer of MiG-29 aircraft will not appreciably increase the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Force. The Ukrainian Air Force currently possesses numerous mission capable aircraft that are flying daily. Adding aircraft to the Ukrainian inventory is unlikely to change the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Air Force relative to Russian capabilities. Therefore, we assess that the overall gain is low," Gen. TOD WOLTERS, the U.S. European Command chief, said in a Thursday statement. A senior U.S. defense official added Friday that the Ukrainians "are not using their fixed-wing fighter aircraft very much. They have about 56 fighter aircraft remaining on the ground, and that is the majority of their fleet." Kyiv is only flying about five to 10 sorties a day compared to Russia's roughly 200, the official continued. The Ukrainians "haven't proven that they need to do more than what they're doing. They've been very effective with the other tools that they have used, very creatively, and those are having a good effect on Russian airpower." (NatSec Daily can't help but note that Ukrainians figured out how to drop Molotov cocktails from drones.) Instead of fighter jets, the U.S. and its allies may soon provide what they deem are more effective weapons to counter Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's forces. "The surface-to-air systems under consideration are more sophisticated than the shoulder-launched, heat-seeking missiles NATO members and others have already provided Ukraine. They include what NATO refers to as the SA-8 and SA-10, which can target planes at much higher altitudes, as well as what Russia calls the S-300, which was a state-of-the-art system until a few years ago," The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday . "The S-300 is an air-defense system, first produced by the Soviet Union and later Russia, that is capable of shooting down aircraft and cruise missiles. The S-300 was designed to be highly mobile, allowing air-defense forces to fire their weapons and quickly relocate to avoid being hit in a retaliatory strike." It's still unclear where the S-300s would come from, but three NATO countries — Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia — have them. And yet, all the administration's critics can talk about is the lack of MiGs, which, again, is Poland's decision, not America's. "[W]e strongly disagree with your decision to delay and deny Poland the option to transfer fighter jets to Ukraine," 28 Republican Senators, including Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, wrote to Biden in a Thursday letter. "At this point, why are we picking and choosing what we think would constitute a bridge too far with Putin? He has said in the past he thinks sanctions are an act of war. We've been sending in military equipment already that is being used against Russian soldiers and likely killing Russian soldiers. We don't understand why the administration thinks these planes will somehow become the straw that broke the camel's back," said a senior House GOP aide. Democrats are pushing back. "Bottom line is Congress and the admin have poured an unprecedented amount of defensive and lethal aid to Ukraine to meet their most urgent needs. If Ukraine needs planes, we'll find a way," a senior Democratic staffer texted NatSec Daily. "But right now, it's clear that's not at the top of the list of what they need. But yet again, Republicans seem to be looking for ways to use Ukraine to score political points at home."
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | SITUATION REPORT: We will only cite official sources. As always, take all figures, assessments and statements with a healthy dose of skepticism. War in Ukraine: — Russia has lost more than 12,000 personnel, as well as 1,165 armored combat vehicles, 353 tanks, 125 artillery systems, 57 warplanes, 83 helicopters, 558 vehicles and three ships ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — Russia's "main focus" right now is Kyiv and Mariupol ( Ukrainian Ministry of Defense) — The 40-mile-long Russian military convoy has dispersed to protect itself from Ukrainian attacks, but the vehicles are stuck on other roads. "It's not like they're off-roading their way to Kyiv." (Senior U.S. defense official) — 564 civilians have died in the Ukraine war, though the toll is likely higher. Nearly 1,000 people sustained injuries. (United Nations)
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A map of Russian forces' positions in Ukraine is pictured. | Janes | Global Response: — U.K.: Britain sanctioned 386 Russian members of Parliament who voted to recognize the independence of two Moscow-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. (U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office) — Canada: After returning from Europe, Trudeau announced new sanctions on 32 business entities and five individuals closely associated with Putin. ( Global Affairs Canada) — Australia: Imports of Russian oil, gas and other energy products will be prohibited in Australia, starting April 25. (Australian Government, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade) U.S. ENDS NORMAL TRADE TIES WITH RUSSIA: Biden announced that he wants to work with Congress to impose Cold War-era trade restrictions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, our own DOUG PALMER reported. Removing "permanent normal trade relations," or PNTR, with Russia "is going to make it harder for Russia to do business with the United States and doing it in unison with other nations that make up half of the global economy will be another crushing blow to the Russian economy. It's already suffering very badly from our sanctions," Biden said at a White House event to announce coordinated action with Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United Kingdom as well as the European Union. Biden also announced he was banning imports of Russian seafood, vodka and diamonds, which White House officials said collectively totaled more than $1 billion. The Commerce Department also moved Friday to cut off Russia's access to luxury goods, imposing restrictions on the export and reexport of American-made booze, jewelry, vehicles and clothing to all consumers in both Russia and neighboring Belarus. Congress could vote on repealing PNTR as early as next week. "Vladimir Putin doesn't get to tear down the international order, brutalize the Ukrainian people with his unjust war and then benefit from normal trade relations," Senate Finance Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.) said. RUSSIAN DRONES ARRIVE: Two weeks into the war, and Russian drones are finally starting to show up on the battlefield. Social media posts by Ukraine watchers have identified Russian Orlan and Forpost surveillance drones on the ground, suggesting that the lack of evidence of Russian unmanned operations doesn't mean their absence. The fact that small Russian units have been so regularly ambushed in the early days of the war indicates they weren't using small drones for surveillance and reconnaissance, in effect ignoring their own doctrine and training, said SAMUEL BENDETT, an adviser with CNA's Russia Studies Program and adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. "They were supposed to have [intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance] ISR assets overhead," Bendett said. While the Russian ground forces are still making "strange mistakes and errors, we are starting to see evidence of Russian UAVs as ISR assets" helping them out over the past several days. The Russian defense ministry — possibly trying to match the epic videos of Ukrainian Bayraktar drones wiping out Russian armor — has released two videos of their Orion mid-range combat drone firing missiles at Ukrainian targets. "They're doing sort of a piecemeal PR by showing that an Orion drone is capable of striking targets," Bendett said. But it's still not clear how many drones Russia is flying, or why they don't seem to be feeding useful intel back to the forces on the ground who continue to be surprised, and attacked, by the Ukrainians. UKRAINE ON THE BRAIN: Instead of our normal Friday "Drinks with NatSec Daily" feature, for the next few weeks we'll ask members of our community to send us their favorite things about Ukraine. Today, we're featuring the memories of Puck News' JULIA IOFFE , who has been a must-read source on all things Ukraine these past few weeks. Here's what she sent in: "My favorite fact about Ukraine is that it gave us both the Beylis trial and [Ukrainian President] VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY . It is a country that had fought and worked to break away from its past, from its Soviet past, its nationalist, anti-Semitic past. It wasn't always perfect, but it was doing it, forging its way into a better, more tolerant, more democratic future. It is awful to see it being punished for exactly that, for having a future that is unlike its past," she wrote. "Favorite memory is sitting with my grandmother one evening on the patio of a traditional Odessa courtyard where we were staying with her cousin Volodya and his Greek-Ukrainian wife Galya. My grandmother's father and Volodya's father were brothers, born in Odessa to a poor, alcoholic Jewish cobbler. There were something like 11 siblings and they all scattered across the Soviet Union. Now we were sitting under the stars in their fathers' home city, drinking beer, and telling old Odessa jokes because Odessa is the wellspring of Jewish humor," she continued. Please send us your favorite memories of Ukraine and we'll try to feature them in an upcoming Friday edition of NatSec Daily.
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The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn more. | | | IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio and our new fellow @JGedeon1.
| | | EU DOESN'T FAST TRACK UKRAINE MEMBERSHIP: The European Union firmly sided with Ukraine during a summit in Versailles Friday, but stopped short of promising to admit the country into the bloc any time soon. "The European Council acknowledged the European aspirations and the European choice of Ukraine," the EU said in a statement, adding that it's moving "swiftly" to get the European Commission's "opinion" on the matter. As our own DAVID HERSZENHORN and JACOPO BARIGAZZI reported, all this means is Ukraine is at the "the initial stage of a long process toward being declared a candidate country and beginning membership talks." "While the statement was unequivocal in voicing the EU's intention to help Ukraine, including with political and financial assistance and temporary protection for refugees, it did not offer the guarantee of membership that Zelenskyy had requested," they continued. "A number of EU countries, led by the Netherlands, had insisted that there was no way to shortcut the lengthy accession process, even for Ukraine, which is under active military attack by Russia." Still, the EU will contribute around $550 million in assistance to Ukraine and further pledged to rebuild the country after the war — "presuming the country still exists and has not been occupied by" Russian forces, Herszenhorn and Barigazzi wrote. DID DRONE FROM UKRAINE WAR LAND IN CROATIA? The War Zone's TYLER ROGOWAY has a wild story about a drone from the Ukraine-Russia war possibly crash landing in Croatia — a NATO country. "After close examination of the visual evidence, The War Zone strongly believes this was actually a Tu-141 'Strizh' reconnaissance drone that must have severely malfunctioned and crossed over the entirety of Hungary or parts of neighboring countries and into Croatia from Ukraine. Flying direct from Ukraine's border to Zagreb is nearly a 350-mile journey. It has been reported that Ukraine has been putting the high-speed, Soviet-era drones to work in recent days following Russia's invasion of the country. Ukraine is the only known current operator of the Tu-141," Rogoway wrote. Croatian President ZORAN MILANOVIĆ said the drone crash was a "serious incident" but "was not directed at Croatia." "The drone flew over Hungary for over 40 minutes, it was less than seven minutes in the Croatian air space, and crashed in the Jarun neighbourhood, fortunately with no casualties," he said in a Friday statement. "[C]ertain procedural things must be examined, we must ascertain how it has come to this, and how come a drone the size of an airplane was not struck down on its path from evidently Ukraine to Zagreb."
| | | YOUTUBE BLOCKS RUSSIAN STATE MEDIA WORLDWIDE: YouTube announced on Friday that it's banning Russian-state funded media channels on its video platform globally, setting up potential pushback and blockage by Moscow. Google's video platform announcement has larger implications for how Russia spreads its state-run propaganda through its RT (formerly Russia Today) and Sputnik channels on YouTube, which will no longer be accessible in Russia or the rest of the world. This is an expansion from YouTube's ban of these channels in Europe on March 1, due to the spread of disinformation justifying Russia's invasion into Ukraine. YouTube's actions — the furthest the platform has taken since Russia's invasion in Ukraine — puts the company square in the target of Russia's communications regulator, Roskomnadzor. The regulator has blocked Facebook and restricted access to Instagram due to their parent company's efforts to clamp down on Russian disinformation and the prevalence of Ukrainians calling for violence against Russian soldiers, our own REBECCA KERN wrote (for Pros!).
| | | |   | | | WH BRIEFED TIKTOKERS ON UKRAINE: I guess we can now add TikTok stars as extended members of the White House press corps. Per The Washington Post's TAYLOR LORENZ, White House press secretary JEN PSAKI and her team briefed 30 influential TikTokers about the administration's Ukraine policy and strategic goals. The aim — other than promoting viral dances or one-person bits — is to better inform those with large followings so they can spread that message to the larger public. "This week, the administration began working with Gen Z For Change, a nonprofit advocacy group, to help identify top content creators on the platform to orchestrate a briefing aimed at answering questions about the conflict and the United States' role in it. VICTORIA HAMMETT, deputy executive director of Gen Z For Change, contacted dozens with invitations via email and gathered potential questions for the Biden administration," Lorenz wrote. "The invitations to the event were distributed Tuesday and Wednesday. KAHLIL GREENE , 21, a creator with more than 534,000 followers on TikTok, said he wasn't surprised when an invitation arrived in his email inbox. 'People in my generation get all our information from TikTok,' he said. 'It's the first place we're searching up new topics and learning about things.' So, he figured, it made sense that the Biden administration would engage people like him on the platform," Greene told Lorenz. You can listen to the 50-minute recording of the call, led by special adviser for communications MATT MILLER.
| | | HERMEUS PAYDAY: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) reported that hypersonic aircraft company Hermeus raised $100 million — bringing its total to $176 million to make a new (very) fast plane. Backers include In-Q-Tel, a nonprofit tech investor for U.S. intelligence agencies, and Founders Fund, the VC outfit that has invested in other start-ups such as Anduril, Palantir and SpaceX. The Air Force has invested up to $30 million in the Atlanta-based company to expand the hypersonic propulsion industrial base. Hermeus was the only start-up present at the Pentagon's unclassified meeting in February on hypersonic weapons development. The new funding will be used to complete the development of the hypersonic aircraft Quarterhorse — which is slated to make its first flight next year — and accelerate the uncrewed Darkhorse. Both projects are expected to assist in development of Halcyon, a hypersonic commercial passenger aircraft.
| | | $1.5B McCONNELL-SCHUMER CALL: McConnell and Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER's call this week led to the doubling of a $1.5 billion fund to assist Ukraine's troops. "While Ukraine came under attack, Congress scrambled to boost lethal and humanitarian aid for the European ally. So as leaders finalized a $1.5 trillion government spending bill that included emergency assistance for Ukraine, the Senate GOP leader phoned his Democratic counterpart this week with a simple but significant request: Double the size of a critical $1.5 billion fund for Ukraine to help its military fight Russian invaders," our own BURGESS EVERETT and ANDREW DESIDERIO wrote. "To Chuck's credit, he said, 'OK,'" McConnell recalled in an interview Thursday in his Capitol office. "It wasn't a hard sell." All told, the bill Biden will soon sign will more than double his initial request of $6.4 billion for Ukraine to roughly $14 billion. Senators in both parties negotiating the aid deal described a pot of money that ballooned each day as Russia's assault on Ukraine escalated, killing civilians and sending millions of refugees across Europe. "I do think that they've taken every step they've needed to take, but not soon enough to have had a real impact," McConnell said of the Biden administration. Nonetheless, he described his approach to Biden this way: "What I'm trying to do is, in a respectful way, get him to change. I'm not trying to take political advantage of the situation. I'm trying to influence him." FUNDING FIGHT FINISHED: A $1.5 trillion government spending package is ready for Biden's signature after it passed the Senate Thursday night in a 68-31 vote. The deal provides a major funding hike to the Pentagon. National defense programs — including the Pentagon, nuclear programs and other security initiatives — get $782 billion for the full year, roughly $29 billion more than Biden sought. The package also includes nearly $14 billion in emergency military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine. The package ultimately won strong backing from Democrats, despite progressives' push to hold the line on defense spending. Democrats ultimately agreed to back a big Pentagon increase to lock in a major boost for spending on their domestic priorities. No Democratic senators opposed the spending package. When the defense portion of omnibus came up for a vote Wednesday in the House, just 15 Democrats voted against it. Our colleagues SARAH FERRIS and CONNOR O'BRIEN previewed the progressive defense dilemma earlier this week. EGYPT DEAL SEALED: The Senate on Thursday also rejected in a whopping 19-80 vote a resolution from Sen. RAND PAUL (R-Ky.) to cancel a $2.2 billion sale of a dozen C-130J cargo planes to Egypt over the country's human rights record. The Biden administration has walked a fine line with Egypt, notifying lawmakers about the sale in January within days of withholding $130 million in military aid due to human rights concerns. But most senators were fine allowing the sale of non-lethal equipment to go forward. Connor has the details.
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Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn more. | | | | | | RUBIO BASHES NSC STAFFER: Sen. MARCO RUBIO wishes there were a dislike button on Instagram so he could smash it for a pic by a top NSC staffer. Rubio tweeted out an IG picture of JUAN GONZALEZ, the NSC's Western Hemisphere lead. He recently traveled to Venezuela for a meeting with officials in Caracas, namely to secure the release of Americans hostages and convince Caracas to export oil to the U.S. But the Florida lawmaker — a longtime Venezuela hawk — didn't appreciate the photo Gonzalez posted on his personal account. "This is Biden's NSC staffer for Western Hemisphere posting on instagram like he is a celebrity as he flies in the luxury of a government jet to #Caracas to meet with a narco-dictator responsible for 6 million refugees who have had to flee #Venezuela," Rubio tweeted. It's unclear precisely why this bothered Rubio so much. Perhaps if Gonzalez were on his way somewhere other than Venezuela it wouldn't have irked him. Still, this social media squabble underscores the intense resistance the White House is facing for thawing relations with Venezuela, including from some Democrats. Gonzalez did return home having secured the release of two unlawfully detained Americans, however.
| | | — Biden nominated SHEFALI RAZDAN DUGGAL as ambassador to the Netherlands. She's a former presidential appointee to the United States Holocaust Memorial Council and continues to serve as a western region adviser. — LILY ADAMS was named the Treasury Department's new assistant secretary for public affairs. — STELLA SIMANTIRAKI was promoted to staff analyst for corporate investigations at Boeing. Previously she was a legal administrator at the company and worked for the EU's delegation to the U.S.
| | | — ELAINE GODFREY, The Atlantic: "Congressional Republicans Have Found Their Red Line" — ALI NOORANI, The Bulwark: " The Moral Clarity of Resettling Refugees" — KEVIN WILLIAMSON, National Review: "Are We At War?"
| | | — International Association of Lawyers Against Nuclear Arms, 4 a.m.: "Looking Back and Looking Ahead: Give Justice to Nuclear Victims! –– with DANIEL RIETIKER, MANFRED MOHR and KAZUE MORI" — National Defense Industrial Association, 9 a.m.: "Defense Workforce Summit — with GILBERT CISNEROS, BETTY McCOLLUM, KEN CALVERT, DUANE HAWKINS and more" — The Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 9 a.m.: "On China and the Indo-Pacific" — with GEN. KENNETH WILSBACH" — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 9:30 a.m.: " Evolving Threat of Illegal Drug Trafficking To Our Communities — with JOSEPH M. EBERT, JON DELENA, MICHAEL P. MANNING and more" — The Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies, the WWC Polar Institute, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs, 10 a.m.:" Ukraine and the Arctic: Perspectives, Impacts, and Implications — with ULF SVERDRUP, LAWSON BRIGHAM, MICHAEL SFRAGA and more" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: "Cyber in the Ukraine Invasion — with CHRIS PAINTER and MARK WARNER" — The Jewish Institute for National Security of America, 12 p.m.: "Understanding Russia in Ukraine — with ANGELA STENT, MICHAEL MAKOVSKY and STEPHEN SESTANOVICH" — The Atlantic Council, 5 p.m.: "Transatlantic cooperation in the area of strategic foresight –– with MAROŠ ŠEFČOVIČ, RICHARD MORNINGSTAR and JULIA FRIEDLANDER"
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