| | | | | | | Presented By OurCrowd | | | | Axios Markets | | By Matt Phillips and Emily Peck ·Mar 17, 2022 | | 👋 Hello! Emily here. Welcome to Thursday. Today, March Madness begins. We highlight more nickel trading weirdness and the Russian bond limbo. Scroll to the end and you'll find some boomer music relief — and more reader comments! Today's newsletter is 1,194 words, 4.5 minutes. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Markets have limits |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | The Russian stock market is shuttered. Gasoline prices are soaring, yet the U.S. won't buy cheap Russian oil. The market for nickel stopped trading for a week, tried to restart, then stopped almost immediately, Matt writes. Why it matters: Sanctions, government actions and remarkable price moves are rocking the once-unshakable reliance on rational markets as a pillar of the world economy. The latest: The 145-year-old London Metal Exchange (LME) reopened trading in nickel yesterday after a weeklong freeze — only to slam the market shut again within minutes due to a technical problem. The backstory: The initial nickel market shutdown followed an extraordinary short squeeze that sent prices up over 250% in a little more than 24 hours, culminating on March 8, when they climbed above $100,000 per metric tonne. - The seismic move triggered a cascade of margin calls that would have likely bankrupted major players in the market — and perhaps the exchange itself, though officials there deny it — had the LME not said, basically, "oh, well nevermind," and canceled the offending trades.
- Bloomberg has a great blow-by-blow of the chaos.
- Some people who, presumably, would have made some decent scratch on those trades, are not pleased.
What they're saying: "For the LME to cancel nickel trades between willing buyers and sellers is unforgiveable. UNFORGIVEABLE.," wrote Mark Thompson, a metals trader, on Twitter. The big picture: For decades following the fall of communism, the global economy was organized around the so-called efficient market hypothesis, the quasi-mystical — but incredibly influential — idea that market prices fully and correctly reflect "all known information." - Many people then made the leap that the market in some sense always identifies prices that are "correct."
Others, however, argued that markets can't incorporate all known information — because sometimes people with good info can't participate. This idea is known as "limits to arbitrage." - The financial world is now confronting some serious limits to arbitrage — for instance, those who want to sell Russian stocks, or buy Russian oil, can't.
And the nickel market: When the London Metal Exchange reopened trading yesterday morning, there were clearly plenty of people who thought that the insanely high nickel prices couldn't last. And they wanted to sell. - As a result, prices plunged so fast that some trades exceeded the new 5% limit on daily price changes that the exchange had imposed — forcing it to suspend trading for a while once again.
The bottom line: Markets are human institutions. When events get as crazy as they are now, the illusion of markets as a completely separate system from either grand geopolitics or the more mundane politics of any institution — like a metals exchange — suddenly disappears. Go deeper. |     | | | | | | 2. Catch up quick | | 🚢 A near-record number of LNG tankers sit in the Gulf of Mexico to load, as demand rises for gas exports. (Reuters) 📉 The war will cut global growth by 1 percentage point, the OECD says. (AP) | | | | | | | | 3. Powell bets on buoyant economy |  | | | Jerome Powell. Photo: Michael Nagle/Getty Images | | | | A recurring theme in Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell's news conference yesterday was his confidence that the economy is on a sufficiently robust footing that even a sustained campaign of interest rate increases won't shake it, Axios' Neil Irwin writes. Why it matters: The Fed is now on track to raise interest rates at the fastest clip in at least 16 years as it tries to contain inflation, a trajectory that will test the capacity of markets and the economy to adjust. - Powell is betting that growth is robust enough to withstand both the supply crunches caused by geopolitical events and the tightening by the Fed.
- He was downright dismissive of talk that there's an elevated risk of recession.
Said Powell: "In my view, the risk of a recession within the next year is not particularly elevated." He added that "all signs are that this is a strong economy, indeed one that will be able to flourish in the face of less accommodative monetary policy." - He even said that the labor market might be "tight to an unhealthy level," given the high ratio of job openings to unemployed workers.
Fed officials think this policy course will bring inflation down, though not abruptly. - Their median forecast is for 4.3% inflation this year, but 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, implying they no longer expect the kind of rapid disinflation they envisioned three months ago.
The bottom line: The Fed is looking to bring inflation down gradually while also maintaining a robust expansion. The open question is whether it's too late for that, and it will take a bigger economic shock to undo the inflationary pressures that have been released. Go deeper. | | | | | | | | A message from OurCrowd | | Nobel Prize-winning tech unlocks greater cancer treatment | | |  | | | | Using cutting-edge laser-based tech, HIL Applied Medical is reducing proton therapy costs by 65% — potentially expanding treatment to over 1 million cancer patients annually. HIL has a signed agreement with global leader Proton International. Now, you can invest. Explore HIL's investment potential. | | | | | | 4. Russia's bond payment limbo |  | | | Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios | | | | Russia's status with its creditors is turning into a matter of he said/she said, Axios' Kate Marino writes. Why it matters: A default by the Russian government on its bond payments would cement its status as an outsider of the global financial system. - It could also cause even more losses for investors holding bonds currently worth pennies on the dollar.
State of play: Russia's Finance Ministry this morning said that it had made good on the required interest payments due yesterday on its dollar-denominated bonds, Reuters reports. - That's after Russia's finance minister, Anton Siluanov, told state media yesterday that the payments might not go through because of U.S. sanctions, the WSJ reported. "We have the money, we paid the payment, now the ball is on the side, first of all, of the American authorities," Siluanov said, according to the report.
On the flip side: A Europe-based holder of Russia's dollar bonds told Reuters today that some holders of the bonds still hadn't received the payment. - And the Treasury Department insists that sanctions won't prevent the funds from being transferred. "U.S. sanctions on Russia do not prohibit Russia from making these debt payments," a Treasury spokesperson told Axios.
The backstory: The sanctions targeted Russian banks, and froze a huge chunk of Russia's foreign currency reserves — so, both its willingness, and ability, to transfer payments to foreign creditors has been in doubt. What's next: If the payments aren't delivered, Russia still has a 30-day grace period before it's officially considered in default. | | | | |  | | | | If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. | | | | | | | | 5. Oldies get the goodies |  Data: Luminate; Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios Eager investors scooped up artists' music catalogs over the past couple of years, paying hundreds of millions of dollars for some of the most beloved boomer music from Bruce Springsteen, Bob Dylan and Paul Simon, Emily writes. - The big question: Did they overpay?
Older acts get fewer online streams on platforms including Spotify, Apple Music and Amazon Music, compared to those from younger artists, according to a new analysis from Luminate, an entertainment data provider. By the numbers: Bob Dylan is streamed three times less, annually, than the Red Hot Chili Peppers (777 million vs. 2.3 billion), but Dylan's catalog sold for more than three times as much. - The biggest catalog deals have basically gone to older, white male artists (and Stevie Nicks).
- Rock made up 37% of deals last, year compared to 25% for pop and just 3% for hip-hop, FT recently reported.
Reality check: Streams are a good indicator of an artists' relevance and popularity. But they aren't everything. Well-known songs also bring in royalties through placement in film, television and commercials. | | | | | | | | A message from OurCrowd | | Explore the most advanced radiotherapy treatment against cancer | | |  | | | | HIL Applied Medical uses Nobel Prize-winning tech to expand treatment to more cancer patients. 65% less expensive than existing proton therapy options, HIL has signed an agreement with Proton International, the largest proton therapy provider in the U.S. and Europe. Invest now at OurCrowd. | | | | 📬 Our inbox is bursting with complaints about permanent daylight saving time — people are calling the idea: "a disaster," "dangerous and stupid" and one emailer said, simply, "my family and I despise [it]." Please keep the messages coming, markets@axios.com. |  | It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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