Friday, March 4, 2022

Can a wider war be prevented?

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DRIVING THE DAY

UKRAINE LATEST, DAY NINE — "Ukrainian firefighters on Friday extinguished a blaze at Europe's biggest nuclear plant that was ignited by a Russian attack and no radiation was released, U.N. and Ukrainian officials said, as Russian forces seized control of the site and pressed their campaign to cripple the country despite global condemnation," reports the AP.

"The head of the United Nations' atomic agency said that a Russian 'projectile' hit a training center at the plant. Ukraine's state nuclear regulator earlier said that no changes in radiation levels have been recorded so far after the Zaporizhzhia plant came under attack."

— In a televised address, Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY said the Russian attack on the nuclear plant could have caused destruction equal to "six Chernobyls," per the BBC. "People of Ukraine! We survived the night that could have stopped the course of history — history of Ukraine, history of Europe," Zelenskyy said, calling the shelling campaign an act of "terror on an unheard-of level."

— The White House said Thursday night that President JOE BIDEN had spoken with Zelenskyy and top U.S. nuclear security officials about the Russian shelling of the nuclear plant.

— Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN's actions "could now directly threaten the safety of all of Europe," said British PM BORIS JOHNSON, per the BBC. The U.K. announced it would seek an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting on the matter.

HOW TO PREVENT A WIDER WAR — Biden has been adamant that he will protect every inch of NATO territory and that no American troops will step foot in Ukraine. The discipline to prevent escalation that leads to a NATO-Russian war and to remain firm about his no-boots-on-the-ground pledge is being tested every day. The pressure on Biden to intervene is increasing.

Biden's first test is the no-fly zone. The unified opposition to an NFZ — "World War III," Russia hawk Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) recently called it — has started to crack. Illinois Rep. ADAM KINZINGER, every liberal's favorite Republican, has loudly called for Biden to defend the skies above Ukraine from Russian planes. "I fear if this continues, we will have to intervene in a bigger way," he said Thursday night after a day of heightened Russian attacks on civilian areas. Sen. ROGER WICKER (R-Miss.) is also on board, as are some big-name Democratic policymakers from the Obama years, such as EVELYN FARKAS, the top official for Ukraine in the Obama Pentagon.

Zelenskyy reiterated his call for a no-fly zone on Thursday. "How long do you need? How many arms and legs and heads should be severed so that you understand?" he said at a press conference in Kyiv. "If you don't have the strength to provide a no-fly zone, then give me planes. Would that not be fair?"

As the refugee crisis worsens and Russian artillery decimates Ukraine's largest cities, the pro-NFZ voices will get louder.

This week on our Playbook Deep Dive podcast, we talk to two top experts about what escalation would mean.

— From Ukraine, MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN's man in Kyiv who has filed some of the most memorable reporting since the invasion started, takes us behind the scenes of what happened when he found himself in the middle of a firefight and inside the presidential bunker where he interviewed Zelenskyy.

You'll be riveted by Chance's stories about what it's like on the ground in Kyiv, where one day he stumbles upon a column of burned-out tanks filled with dead soldiers and another he's caught in a firefight after sticking around too long talking to a Russian soldier he mistook for a Ukrainian.

But we also discussed what it's like to report on the human suffering of war knowing that a single viral video from him can drastically affect world opinion and the decisions of policymakers inside the Situation Room.

— In Washington, we talk to TOM DONILON, BARACK OBAMA's national security adviser from 2010-2013, when he was in the Situation Room as world opinion shaped Obama's decisions on the revolution in Egypt, and the conflicts in Syria and Libya.

A quote from Tom Donilon is pictured.

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Some highlights from the interviews:

— Chance on whether he thinks about how his own reporting can shape policy:

"I do think about it. Yes. But, you know, you've got to be careful what you wish for, particularly with Russia. You can stand up there on your high horse all you like and say, 'We should be putting boots on the ground. We should be imposing a no-fly zone over this country to stop the civilian deaths.' But that action is going to provoke a reaction from Russia. Russia has more nuclear weapons than any other country in the world. I grew up in the Cold War. I remember as a kid crying myself to sleep, thinking that I wasn't going to make it to adulthood. The 'mutual assured destruction' idea that if we get into a confrontation that could escalate was something that is really a deep-seated fear in people of my age."

"And so I do understand the calls for a no-fly zone here. I do understand the debate about whether there should be boots on the ground and whether NATO countries should join in or whether Ukraine should be quickly embraced into the community of the Western military alliance. I'm not sure that I would advocate for that. In the end, you can't predict … what Putin might do. There are all sorts of rumors about the Russian military doctrine allowing them to use tactical battlefield nuclear weapons. Again, a week ago, I would have been like, 'Putin is a rational actor.' Is that now true? Or are we talking about somebody who's been isolated for the past two years during this Covid pandemic and has been getting advice from a very limited circle of advisers, with no one really telling him the reality of the situation?"

— Donilon on what worries him the most as the crisis drags on:

"The first concern, obviously, is that Putin, in terms of his decision-making, is a very isolated leader. I even saw in my dealing[s] with him during the Obama administration increasing isolation and an increasing dismissal of his aides. … He had been kind of moving in that direction and towards kind of an isolated czar-like existence. … I think that's become exacerbated during the course of Covid, where the advisers that he's talking to are small in number and all come basically the same kind of KGB, FSB kind of background that will reinforce a lot of the grievance and paranoia that he has. I also think you're in a situation where it doesn't really — in those circumstances, it doesn't pay to be the truth teller. I don't think he really regards any of his advisers as having anywhere near the strategic sense that he has. …You worry [about] someone who is that isolated, operates the way that he operates." You can listen to both interviews here

 

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BIDEN'S FRIDAY:

— 10 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— 12:25 p.m.: Biden will make an announcement billed as "delivering on his Made in America commitments."

— 2:30 p.m.: Biden will have a bilateral meeting with Finnish President SAULI NIINISTÖ in the Oval Office.

— 5:35 p.m.: Biden will leave the White House for New Castle, Del., arriving at 6:40 p.m.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' FRIDAY — The VP will have a bilateral meeting with Bahraini Crown Prince/PM SALMAN BIN HAMAD AL KHALIFA at 1:10 p.m.

Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 1:15 p.m.

THE SENATE is in. THE HOUSE is out.

 

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PHOTO OF THE DAY

People leaving their relatives press their palms against a window of a Lviv-bound train, on the platform in Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 3, 2022.

People leaving their relatives press their palms against a window of a Lviv-bound train, on the platform in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Thursday, March 3. | Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo

PLAYBOOK READS

ALL POLITICS

SCOTT FIRES BACK AT MCCONNELL — Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) penned a defiant op-ed in the WSJ on Thursday evening defending his move to release a high-profile policy platform against Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL's wishes — including the proposal to make low-income people pay federal income taxes. "If we have no bigger plan than to be a speed bump on the road to socialism, we don't deserve to govern," he wrote.

Speaking of headaches for McConnell …

TRUMP WARMS TO GREITENS — Missouri GOP Senate candidate ERIC GREITENS has been rising in former President DONALD TRUMP's estimation, and that's got party leaders worrying, Alex Isenstadt writes.

"Greitens has staunchly aligned himself with the former president, become a favorite of the pro-Trump media universe, and distinguished himself as one of the few Republican Senate candidates willing to speak out against McConnell. Now, Trump, who in the past has privately criticized the former governor over the scandal that led to his downfall, is telling people he's open to endorsing Greitens — despite fears among other powerful Republicans that the Missouri Republican is the only GOP candidate who could potentially lose the seat in November."

A DYING BREED — Democrats' brand has become so toxic in rural America that the thousands of Biden voters in any given Trump county "feel somehow as if they're under siege," Chris Cadelago reports in a big POLITICO Magazine feature this morning from DuBois, Pa. The party "can't afford to disengage," he writes, even with voters who sometimes refuse to listen. "There's evidence, though, that Democratic leadership isn't any better at communicating right now than its traumatized voters, who are more likely to retreat into safe bubbles than evangelize for a president with an approval rating stuck in the low 40-percent range."

DEMS' FAVORITE REPUBLICANS — Outside Democratic operatives want to make far-right Reps. LAUREN BOEBERT (R-Colo.) and MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE (R-Ga.) the faces of the opposition in this year's midterms, NYT's Jonathan Weisman reports.

THE WHITE HOUSE

PAGING ROSA DELAURO — The White House publicized an online widget to help low-income people collect their child tax credit payments. But now, out of concerns that the wrong people will use it during an overloaded tax filing season at the IRS, the administration is putting the tool on hold until after April 18, Brian Faler reports this morning . Some advocates worry the about-face "will mean some will face long waits for assistance or miss out on the payments altogether."

JUDICIARY SQUARE

SCOTUS WATCH — WaPo's Seung Min Kim rounds up the early Republican/conservative arguments emerging against Judge KETANJI BROWN JACKSON's Supreme Court nomination. The main narratives: (1) calling her a radically liberal pick, (2) warning that her public defender years would make her soft on crime, (3) fingering the "dark money" groups that support her nomination and (4) pressing her on committing not to expand the high court.

 

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WAR IN UKRAINE

LATEST ON THE GROUND … 

— Russian forces continued to blast Ukrainian cities Thursday and made particular advances in the south of the country, where they're seeking to choke Ukraine's Black Sea coastal access. The port city Mariupol came under siege. Putin gave no indication of backing down, saying Thursday that his war was going according to plan.

— "The Ukrainian Navy purposely sank the flagship of its Black Sea fleet on Thursday to prevent the warship from being seized by the Russian military," reports the NYT.

— France warned that after his call with Putin, President EMMANUEL MACRON was convinced the Russian leader seeks to take over all of Ukraine, per WaPo.

— But Russian troops appeared to have advanced more slowly in the 40-mile-long convoy headed for Kyiv, amid fierce Ukrainian resistance. NYT map tracking the invasion

— The second round of Russia-Ukraine negotiations yielded no agreement on a cease-fire, but the two sides did agree Thursday on creating "humanitarian corridors" so civilians can evacuate from the hardest-hit areas. More from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

More developments: The last holdouts of an independent press in Russia collapsed Thursday … Zelenskyy has reportedly survived three assassination attempts.

LATEST IN THE WEST … 

— Some Democrats see Biden's handling of this international crisis as a solid political opportunity to demonstrate leadership and highlight threats to democracy. Others are urging him to get more aggressive on drawing a contrast with the GOP, Chris Cadelago and Laura Barrón-López report in a look at the party's Ukraine messaging. Biden's been reluctant to hammer Republicans on the crisis, even as they've been more than happy to torch him. The White House wants to limit partisanship in foreign policy, and it's cautious about the highly fluid situation.

Quite the line: "'We're Zelenskyy Democrats. And they're Putin Republicans' would be my bumper sticker," DCCC Chair SEAN PATRICK MALONEY (D-N.Y.) said.

— Sen. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-S.C.) called for the assassination of Putin on Thursday night: "Is there a BRUTUS in Russia? Is there a more successful COLONEL STAUFFENBERG in the Russian military? The only way this ends is for somebody in Russia to take this guy out. You would be doing your country — and the world — a great service."

— The White House doesn't support the bipartisan congressional effort to ban Russian oil imports. "We don't have a strategic interest in reducing the global supply of energy," said White House press secretary JEN PSAKI , "and that would raise prices at the gas pump for the American people."

— Even so, the bill is gaining momentum, Josh Siegel reports, and there's "a potential standoff" looming between Biden and Congress on the issue. Sen. JOE MANCHIN (D-W.Va.) called Psaki's stance "irresponsible."

Speaking of gas prices: "We are raising our forecast for the yearly national average to $3.99/gal from $3.41/gal, with the average household to spend $2,745 on gasoline, up from $1,977 in 2021," PATRICK DE HAAN, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, tweeted Thursday.

— DHS gave Temporary Protected Status to Ukrainians in the U.S. on Thursday for the next 18 months. That will allow about 75,000 people to stay without fear of deportation while the war back home is ongoing. More from CBS

— Treasury on Thursday announced a new round of sanctions aimed at Russian oligarchs and nearly a dozen outlets the administration said were spreading FSB-directed disinformation. More from Reuters The announcement

— But some administration officials are worried that the crush of sanctions could backfire, as U.S. intelligence sends worrisome signals about Putin's mental state and his tendencies to double down and lash out when trapped, NYT's David Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Julian Barnes report. Still, the administration isn't planning to dial it back.

— RT America, the Russian state media's outlet in the U.S., is essentially shutting down, CNN's Oliver Darcy scooped. The network told its staff Thursday that most of them would be permanently laid off.

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

TOP-ED — "When I Confronted Trump About Election Fraud," by former A.G. BILL BARR in the WSJ, excerpted from his new book.

THE LATEST COMMITTEE TARGET — The House Jan. 6 committee subpoenaed KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE on Thursday after she backed out of a scheduled interview last week and announced she wouldn't cooperate. More from ProPublica

THE PANDEMIC

THE POLITICS OF COVID — The Senate voted 48-47 on Thursday to end the national public health emergency for the coronavirus. (The resolution isn't going anywhere: House Dems won't let it advance, and Biden would veto it anyway.) More from The Hill

TRUMP CARDS

THE INVESTIGATIONS — The Trump family and New York A.G. TISH JAMES' office have reached an agreement on their depositions in the civil investigation into the Trump Organization, NBC's Tom Winter reports . The depositions had been scheduled for Thursday at the latest, but the agreement holds off on them until an expedited appeal can be heard in court.

TV TONIGHT — PBS' "Washington Week": Leigh Ann Caldwell, Weijia Jiang, Nick Schifrin and Jeff Zeleny.

SUNDAY SO FAR …

FOX "Fox News Sunday," guest-anchored by Shannon Bream: Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) … Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). Panel: Katie Pavlich, Jonathan Swan, Catherine Lucey and Mo Elleithee.

Gray TV "Full Court Press": Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) … Nina Khrushcheva.

ABC "This Week": Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.). Panel: Jonathan Karl, Donna Brazile, Chris Christie and Julie Pace.

CBS "Face the Nation": Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) … Ukrainian Ambassador Oksana Markarova … IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva.

CNN "Inside Politics": Panel: Tarini Parti, Kaitlan Collins, Alexander Burns, Greg Ip and Beth Sanner.

NBC "Meet the Press": Panel: Eddie Glaude Jr., Stephen Hayes, Hallie Jackson and Robin Wright.

 

SUBSCRIBE TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY : Keep up with the latest critical developments from Ukraine and across Europe in our daily newsletter, National Security Daily. The Russian invasion of Ukraine could disrupt the established world order and result in a refugee crisis, increased cyberattacks, rising energy costs and additional disruption to global supply chains. Go inside the top national security and foreign-policymaking shops for insight on the global threats faced by the U.S. and its allies and what actions world leaders are taking to address them. Subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

SPOTTED: Jared Kushner and Ye (formerly known as Kanye West) having breakfast together Thursday at the Four Seasons at the Surf Club near Miami, dining on the Lido Restaurant terrace.

Jamarcus Purley, a former aide to Dianne Feinstein, talks about the time he took mushrooms and hung out in Feinstein's personal office smoking a joint and blasting DeBarge's "I Like It." He also made a video.

Ketanji Brown Jackson's then-11-year-old daughter Leila asked Barack Obama to put her mom on the Supreme Court in 2016.

Joe Biden said of Lindsey Graham on Thursday, "Lindsey used to be a really close friend. I'm gonna work on it again."

Joe Manchin walked across Constitution Avenue against a red light to get away from Arthur Delaney .

ON THE ROAD — The Republican Main Street Partnership is bringing several congressional Republicans to Del Rio, Texas, today for a fact-finding border tour led by Rep. Tony Gonzales (Texas). Also on the trip: Reps. Cliff Bentz (Ore.), Ken Calvert (Calif.), John Curtis (Utah), Andrew Garbarino (N.Y.), Carlos Gimenez (Fla.), Bill Huizenga (Mich.), Chris Jacobs (N.Y.), Young Kim (Calif.), Peter Meijer (Mich.), Carol Miller (W.Va.), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa), John Rutherford (Fla.) and David Valadao (Calif.).

OUT AND ABOUT — The Meridian International Center hosted a "Welcome to Washington" reception Thursday night for newly arrived foreign ambassadors. SPOTTED: Chief of Protocol Rufus Gifford, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Ed and Marie Royce, Megan Beyer, Reta Jo Lewis, Jennifer Hall Godfrey, Amanda Mansour, Asel Roberts, Jonathan Spalter, Roxanne Roberts, Maryland Secretary of State John Wobensmith, Steve Clemons, Suzanne Kianpour, Raquel Krähenbühl, Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, Kathleen Doherty, Vinai Thummalapally and the ambassadors of Algeria, Armenia, Italy, Liechtenstein and Peru.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Michael Gruber is joining the Household & Commercial Products Association's executive leadership team as SVP of government relations and public policy. He previously was VP of public policy at the Consumer Brands Association, and is a Hill alum.

MEDIA MOVE — Katty Kay is returning to the BBC as U.S. special correspondent, per Axios' Sara Fischer. She left for (and then resigned from) Ozy Media last year.

STAFFING UP — The Interior Department announced a slate of new appointees: David Baler as advance representative, Laura Bloomer as adviser in the Office of the Solicitor, Michael Brain as deputy commissioner at the Bureau of Reclamation, Katherine Pustay Currie as deputy infrastructure coordinator, Gary Gold as deputy assistant secretary for water and science, Catherine Ming as scheduler and Joan Mooney as principal deputy assistant secretary for policy, management and budget.

TRANSITIONS — Scott Farnin will be legal counsel at Better Markets. He previously was financial services counsel for Rep. Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio). … Sebastian Roa is now comms director for the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. He previously was digital director for D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser. … Jayce Genco is now comms director for Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.). He most recently was comms director for the Democratic Party of Virginia, and is a Biden campaign alum. …

Shipt is adding Chasseny Lewis as director of federal affairs and Justin Hyer as head of the state and local government affairs for the Western region. Lewis most recently was chief of staff for Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.). Hyer previously was SVP of government relations for the Silicon Valley Leadership Group. … Lot Sixteen has added Geof Koss and Alissa Ohl Koay as VPs, Ayla O'Scannell Solorio as a director, and Maggie Delaney, KateChuirazzi and Olivia Medina as associates.

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Jeffrey Rapp, senior adviser in the office of financial markets at Treasury and a Biden and Obama White House alum, and Amanda Rapp, legal counsel at Palantir and an Obama alum, welcomed Holland Judith Rapp last Friday. Instapic ... Another pic

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sens. James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.) … Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) … Doug HoelscherShirley Henry … UNICEF's Cathy RussellMaria RecioJesse Solis … NBC's Vaughn Hillyard Emily Bazelon … POLITICO's Mark McQuillan, Amanda Bertholf and Seth Washington Allison Putala … CNN's Kate Bennett Stephanie Gidigbi Jenkins Abby Jagoda … Fenton's Valerie Jean-CharlesSean SimonsJennifer Loraine Larkin Parker of Rep. Haley Stevens' (D-Mich.) office … Scott CunninghamGary WhidbySimone Ward … former Energy Secretary Rick Perry Callista Gingrich

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