Axios World: Putin's Plan B

Plus: Somaliland's case for recognition | Monday, March 21, 2022

Open in app View in browser     Axios World By Dave Lawler ·Mar 21, 2022 Welcome back to Axios World. Tonight's edition (1,980 words, 7½ minutes) is devoted mainly to two places: Ukraine and... Somaliland. New arrival? Subscribe     1 big thing: Putin's Plan B Data: Institute for the Study of War; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios Russian forces planned to storm Ukraine's major cities in a matter of days. After nearly four weeks, they're instead bombarding those cities from a distance. The big picture: As Russia's military adjusts its tactics to a new battlefield reality, analysts are watching for signs that Vladimir Putin is shifting his overall objectives as well. Driving the news: The Pentagon believes the Russians are increasing their long-distance strikes because, having failed to achieve their objectives on the ground, they are "flummoxed," "frustrated" and desperate to gain some momentum, spokesperson John Kirby said today. Russia's advance on Kyiv has been stalled for over a week, and Russian forces that had seemed poised to move on Odessa have been repulsed. The front lines are largely frozen, with Russian forces consolidating the positions they already hold. However in the east, Russian forces are attempting to break through south of Kharkiv and use a pincer movement to pin down a large number of Ukrainian troops, according to Michael Kofman, a leading expert on Russia's military at CNA. Russia also continued a brutal bombardment of Mariupol in the southeastern Donbas region today after Ukrainian leaders rejected a demand to surrender the besieged port city. Civilians lack heat and electricity and have been scavenging for scraps of food between explosions. Mariupol would be the biggest city to fall thus far, and taking it would free up some of Russia's forces in the south, Kofman says. The symbolic significance could be greater still, as Putin originally justified the war in part as a mission to "liberate" the Donbas. What they're saying: "I've been watching them revise down what I think the war aims are, and if they're searching for anything they can claim as a victory and get out of this conflict, one of the things they would need is to have captured most of the Donbas," Kofman says. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) tweeted today that Putin's objective was "no longer to take over most of Ukraine" but to achieve a ceasefire "on terms he will claim are a strategic victory" by annexing the southern coast, laying siege to Kyiv and other major cities in the north, and degrading Ukraine's military and industrial capabilities. A senior defense official also briefed reporters today that Russia may be seeking to "improve their position at the negotiating table." Moscow is demanding that Ukraine rule out future NATO membership and give up all claims to Crimea and the Donbas "republics." President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled some flexibility on the former but not the latter. It's also not clear how serious Putin is about seeking a deal.     2. Part II: What to expect in the next phase What remains of a shopping center in Kyiv. Photo: Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty   For now, the war appears likely to drag on. What to watch: Russia's exhausted and depleted forces will need to be reinforced and resupplied, perhaps during an operational pause or even a temporary ceasefire, Kofman says. A pro-Kremlin tabloid today published and then deleted what it said was a Defense Ministry assessment that 9,861 Russian troops had been killed and 16,153 wounded, while 96 planes and 118 helicopters had been lost — staggering numbers that have not been officially confirmed. Russia has additional forces and weaponry at its disposal, but "the best of the Russian military has already gone into this war," Kofman says. The scale of Ukraine's losses is unclear, but a war of attrition would be difficult to win. It will be increasingly vital that Western weapons shipments reach Ukrainian troops in the field. Already, over 10 million Ukrainians have fled their homes, with 3.5 million now outside of the country, the UN reports. More headlines: President Biden will travel to Brussels on Tuesday to attend a European Council summit and meet with NATO leaders. He'll then travel on to Warsaw, but is not expected to visit Ukraine. On Friday, he spoke for two hours with Chinese President Xi Jinping and warned of consequences if China aids Russia's war effort. A 96-year old Holocaust survivor was killed last week after Russian forces bombed his home in Kharkiv. A Russian missile strike destroyed a shopping center and killed at least eight people in a residential district of Kyiv on Sunday. Worthy of your time: Two AP reporters were evacuated from Mariupol after learning that they — the last journalists in the city — were on a Russian hit list. They took enormous personal risks to document the horrors of what was happening there. "I have never, ever felt that breaking the silence was so important." — AP reporter Mstyslav Chernov Read their story.     3. Interview: Somaliland's president takes recognition pitch to D.C. President Bihi in 2017. Photo: STR/AFP via Getty   Somaliland President Muse Bihi Abdi spent the past week in Washington making the case that the U.S. should become the first country to recognize his self-declared state's independence — and he's leaving with some positive signals to show for it. Why it matters: Somaliland has governed itself for three decades, but is recognized internationally as part of Somalia. Unlike the remainder of Somalia and most of its neighbors on the Horn of Africa, though, it's democratic and relatively secure. "We know that for the sake of international diplomacy, they will not recognize Somaliland tomorrow," Bihi told Axios in an interview. "So the question is, below that, how to deepen engagement between the governments." In meetings with Biden administration officials, Bihi proposed that the U.S. open a diplomatic office in the capital, Hargeisa. Six other countries including the U.K. have such offices. The conversations were "very positive" but ended without concrete commitments, Bihi said. Bihi noted in our interview that his country would be a willing security partner for the U.S. and had recently signed a cooperation agreement with Taiwan (that made Chinese officials "a little bit angry with us," he told me). Somaliland's democratic bona fides and location in an area where the U.S. is competing for China with influence did not go unnoticed on Capitol Hill. Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which hosted Bihi, told Axios it was "urgent" that the U.S. increase its engagement with Somaliland, starting with a diplomatic presence in Hargeisa and direct development aid to the government. Such steps would counter Russian and Chinese influence, "reinforce support for Taiwan, and embolden democracy advocates worldwide," McCaul said. Another House Republican, Scott Perry (R-Pa.), went further by introducing a bill to recognize Somaliland's independence, though it's unlikely to pass anytime soon.     A message from Axios Hiring? Axios Local gets the job done     Axios now has job boards in the fastest growing cities in America. Reach smart professionals that use Axios Local daily to make decisions about where to work, what to do and where to live. Post your job opening on Axios Local.     Bonus: Where in the world? Screenshot via Apple Maps   We're taking a nighttime tour of Southeast Asia, visiting two tiny countries (5 and 7) and six cities that are either current or former (3) national capitals. Can you name them all? Scroll to the bottom for the answers.     4. Part II: In search of the first country Waiting to vote in the 2021 parliamentary elections. Photo: Musfata Saeed/AFP via Getty   Somaliland's independence push is opposed by the African Union, with members fearing that it could further destabilize Somalia and embolden separatists elsewhere. While the circumstances of South Sudan's independence in 2011 were far different, the country's trajectory since then is another source of pessimism. Bihi argues that every country on the map had to gain independence at some point, and Somaliland is no different. He says he's working to strengthen relations with every country except one: the current government in Mogadishu. "We see it as the No. 1 enemy of Somaliland," he said, and "have absolutely no relations with them." Bihi said nine rounds of peace talks with previous Somali governments went nowhere and there is no point in future dialogue, though "we have no war with them." "We survived the last 33 years with our own efforts," Bihi told me. International recognition would unlock foreign aid and access to international lenders like the World Bank. Somaliland has deposits of petroleum and minerals including gold, but lacks the expertise or capital to develop them and wants to partner with U.S. companies, he said. He also said a new port built by the UAE could make Somaliland a more attractive partner. Bihi argued that Somaliland's severe poverty and lack of progress on recognition threaten to undermine its democracy. It's very hard to convince someone who has voted in three elections but never had a job that democracy is the right path, he said. Flashback: Somaliland was briefly independent after British colonial rule ended in 1960, joined almost immediately into a union with Italian-administered Somaliland to form Somalia, then unilaterally declared independence three decades later. Bihi notes proudly that in 33 years of self-government, the country has had eight national elections and a series of peaceful transfers of power. Those elections are imperfect and often delayed, notes Freedom House, but the pro-democracy group ranks Somaliland far above its neighbors (particularly Somalia) in terms of political rights and civil liberties. The bottom line: "Every country we meet for the past 30 years, they have the same answer for us," Bihi said, recounting praise for Somaliland's stability and improvements in its institutions, but reluctance to be the first country to recognize its independence. "Someday, we will find the first country," he said.     5. The view from Switzerland: Not so neutral on Putin's invasion Zelensky's remarks are livestreamed in Bern. Photo: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty   In an emotional address to the Swiss people on Saturday — which was livestreamed at a solidarity rally outside the Federal Palace in the capital, Bern — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for tougher sanctions on oligarchs and asked, "Why can't we live like the Swiss?" Why it matters: Switzerland is not so neutral when it comes to the war in Ukraine, writes Fabienne Kinzelmann, foreign affairs editor of the Zurich-based Blick newspaper and a former Axios fellow. Driving the news: Swiss President Ignazio Cassis spoke at the rally on Saturday, praising the Ukrainian people's spirit of resistance but drawing a rebuke from the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP), which provides two of the Swiss government's seven ministers. "A demonstrating federal president is the last thing Switzerland needs," the SVP said. One of the party's leading figures has called for a referendum to ban sanctions to preserve Switzerland's neutrality. Yes, but: The Swiss population broadly supports the sanctions against Russia, and all three major newspapers published editorials over the weekend calling for additional steps, like ending Switzerland's reliance on Russian gas. Unlike during the 2015 migrant crisis, solidarity with Ukrainian refugees is also high. During his speech, Zelensky specifically called on Swiss multinational Nestlé, the world's largest food company, to end its business in Russia. "We have stopped all imports and exports from Russia, except for vital products," a spokesperson told Blick. He also called on Swiss banks to freeze oligarch's funds and for Switzerland to expel Putin's supporters. Worth noting: The Swiss Federal Department of Police and Justice has responded to media reports that Putin's "secret wife" and their children might be hiding out in a luxury chalet in the Alps, saying it has "no indication of the presence of this person in Switzerland."     6. Global news roundup Assad with the ruler of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Photo: Government of Dubai/Media Office/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images   1. The Biden administration formally declared today that Myanmar's military has committed genocide against the country's Rohingya minority. 2. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan is in danger of losing a no-confidence vote on Friday after being abandoned by some allies in parliament and, apparently, the military establishment. He warned would-be turncoats in his party today that "no one will marry your children." 3. A Rwandan company with close links to President Paul Kagame has made a last-minute bid for a major natural gas project in Cabo Delgado, the territory in Mozambique where Rwandan forces helped put down an insurgency last year, the Continent reports. 4. The U.S. is "profoundly disappointed and troubled" by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's visit to the United Arab Emirates last week, which it sees as an attempt to "legitimize" the embattled dictator, a spokesperson said. 5. In another unexpected comeback, former Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak is once again a major national political player and election winner, the Economist reports, despite being convicted in the enormous 1MDB corruption scandal.     7. Stories we're watching Selling chickens at a market in Bukavu, eastern DR Congo. Photo: Guerchom Ndebo/AFP via Getty   Inside the bidding war for Chelsea FC China making new billionaires much faster than U.S. China Eastern Airlines plane crashes with 132 on board Trump officials enlisted on China competition bill China militarizes islands in South China Sea Saudi Arabia mull oil sales in Chinese yuan Surgeon general: No need to panic over Europe COVID wave Quoted: "I know that it's the instinct of the people of this country, like the people of Ukraine, to choose freedom, every time. ... When the British people voted for Brexit in such large, large numbers ... It's because they wanted to be free to do things differently." — Boris Johnson to a Conservative Party conference on the similarities between Brexit and Ukraine's resistance to Russia's invasion.     A message from Axios Hiring? Axios Local gets the job done     Axios now has job boards in the fastest growing cities in America. Reach smart professionals that use Axios Local daily to make decisions about where to work, what to do and where to live. Post your job opening on Axios Local.   Answers: 1. Hanoi; 2. Bangkok; 3. Ho Chi Minh City (formerly Saigon); 4. Manila; 5. Brunei; 6. Kuala Lumpur; 7. Singapore; 8. Jakarta. Like this email style and format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 200 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: