| | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | | 
Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures speaking during a joint news conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2022. | Sergey Guneev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP | With help from Connor O'Brien, Andrew Desiderio and Paul McLeary Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint Usually, your friends here at NatSec Daily like to start off with a single, in-depth story. But so much happened today that we felt the better service was to provide you with all of today's big Russia-Ukraine news in one place. So here we go. Early this morning, Russia's Defense Ministry announced that some of its forces were pulling back from the Ukraine border — potentially signaling a cooling of tensions. But shortly thereafter, NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG told reporters that "so far, we have not seen any sign of de-escalation on the ground," adding: "Everything is now in place for a new attack." Experts also were skeptical that some Russian troops were heading back to their barracks, with some observers noting that the supposedly retreating units were already far from the border. Plus, those Russian forces hailed from the military districts closest to Ukraine, meaning they would be close by if called upon. Still, analysts like the Rand Corporation's SAMUEL CHARAP told us: "Better these signals than more bellicose ones." Then, Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN, speaking after his meeting in Moscow with German Chancellor OLAF SCHOLZ, said he didn't want a war in Ukraine and that he hoped to resolve the standoff diplomatically. Putin claimed that the West was open to discussing missile deployments and the scope of military exercises in Europe — issues the Kremlin has long complained about. Talks on those topics could resolve some of Putin's grievances, but not his main one: Ukraine's desire to join NATO. Scholz indicated to reporters that closing the military alliance's open door to Kyiv might be worth avoiding the worst-case scenario. "The fact is that all involved know that NATO membership for Ukraine is not on the agenda. Everyone must step back a bit here and make it clear to themselves that we just can't have a possible military conflict over a question that is not on the agenda," he said after meeting with Putin. As if that wasn't enough, the State Duma, Russia's lower house of parliament, asked Putin to diplomatically recognize two breakaway, Moscow-backed regions of Ukraine. Both areas in Ukraine's east, the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, declared their independence in 2014 but aren't regarded as sovereign nations by any country. Earlier this month, a senior administration official told NatSec Daily that "if Moscow changes its recognition posture, it could then claim the push for independence led Ukraine to 'attack'" — thereby providing Russia with a pretext for an invasion. Putin today called the situation in the Donbas a "genocide." "To build the case for independence, Russian politicians are advancing this legislation on the false basis that Ukraine is preparing to forcibly retake this territory and that Kyiv has systematically denied local residents their basic rights," the official told us at the time. "In line with its previous interventions, Russia would portray its actions as defending ethnic Russians and coming at the request of a sovereign government for assistance." It's possible that's already happening: A report in Russian media outlet TASS carried an unconfirmed claim by Donetsk officials that the Ukrainian military fired a grenade launcher near the village of Zaichenko. However, such claims are made often, and even Russian media (sometimes) points out when they're unsubstantiated. In the cyber sphere, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's website was taken offline by what it claims was a distributed denial of service, or DDoS, attack. A separate Ukrainian agency, the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security, said the website of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had also been hit . Furthermore, the agency said that Ukrainian banks PrivatBank and Oschadbank had been targeted by the DDoS attack. The Ukrainian Cyberpolice said in a tweet that it had evidence that unidentified individuals were sending out text messages about fraudulent Ukrainian ATM failures. PrivatBank, however, denies being targeted by a cyberattack. Meanwhile, diplomacy kicked into overdrive, as President JOE BIDEN hopped on the phone with French President EMMANUEL MACRON and Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN spoke with Russian Foreign Minister SERGEY LAVROV. Finally, Biden just addressed the crisis in a White House speech, saying "we should give diplomacy every chance to succeed." He confirmed the U.S. was willing to discuss arms control and transparency issues with Russia, but wouldn't compromise on a nation's territorial integrity and ability to choose its own course. The president also said that while it would be "good" if Russia's 150,000 forces pulled back from Ukraine, the U.S. had yet to verify that claim. In fact, he said, American analysts assess Putin's forces remain in a "threatening position." Biden also reiterated that the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline "will not happen" if there's a larger invasion. Biden also made his most pointed comments to date, promising to "respond forcefully" if Russia targets Americans in Ukraine. Tuesday was perhaps the busiest day yet in the ongoing security crisis — and the flurry of developments come just one day before U.S. intelligence says Russia plans to launch its larger invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY has declared Wednesday a nation of national unity and called on Ukrainians to fly the flag and sing the national anthem in unison.
| | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | WORST DROUGHT IN 1,200 YEARS: The drought in America's Southwest has made the region the driest it's been in 1,200 years — and climate change is largely to blame. While a drought would've happened anyway, the effects of a warming planet made it far worse than it had to be, scientists said. Researchers looked into the period between 2000 and 2021 and found that it was the driest 22-year stretch since 800 A.D., which is as far back as the data goes. "This drought at 22 years is still in full swing," A. PARK WILLIAMS, a climate scientist at the University of California who led the study, told The New York Times, adding: "It is very, very likely that this drought will survive to last 23 years." "So-called megadroughts, which are characterized by prolonged periods of dryness that span more than two decades, were woven throughout history, the researchers found. Long before human industry, water availability ebbed and flowed naturally. That variability, however, has been intensified by the climate crisis. According to their findings, soil moisture deficits doubled in the last 22 years compared with levels in the 1900s. Human-caused warming accounted for a 42% increase in severity," The Guardian's GABRIELLE CANON wrote. Last October, the Pentagon released a report about the challenges climate change poses to the U.S. military, stating it was "reshaping the geostrategic, operational, and tactical environments with significant implications for U.S. national security and defense." And last week, the U.S. Army released its first-ever climate strategy. GOP RUSSIA SANCTIONS BILL: After a bipartisan group of lawmakers failed to reach a Russia sanctions deal, Senate Republicans have decided to forge ahead with their own package. The measure led by Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), the Senate Foreign Relations Committee's top Republican, would among other things mandate sanctions on Nord Stream 2 without a waiver after a Russian invasion; place sanctions on major Russian banks; provides millions more in military aid to Ukraine; and doubles funding for U.S. military exercises in Europe With the Never Yielding Europe's Territory Act, or NYET, Risch hopes he and his roughly 30 cosponsors will send a strong message to Putin. "Rather than simply restating authorities the president already has, the NYET Act takes immediate action to permanently stop Nord Stream 2, sends a powerful deterrent message, imposes heavy economic and military costs on Russia, strengthens U.S. allies and partners, and supports Ukraine via new authorities, funds, and tools," he said in a statement. ESTONIAN INTEL: RUSSIA 'READY' FOR WAR: Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service publicly released a remarkable, unclassified assessment of the Ukraine crisis, claiming that a fight will break out once Putin gives the word. "In our assessment, the Russian armed forces are ready to embark on a full-scale military operation against Ukraine from the second half of February. Once military readiness has been achieved, only a political decision is required to launch the operation," reads the summary, also noting that "war in Ukraine would not pose an immediate military threat to Estonia or NATO." These conclusions track with what U.S. and other officials have long said — that Russia could launch an invasion around mid-February, with one intelligence item assessing it could begin as soon as tomorrow. The Estonian assessment also indicates, as we've heard repeatedly, that Putin has yet to make the final decision on whether he wants a new, larger incursion. However, it's worth noting that Estonia didn't unveil its intelligence, so all we have is the readout of the findings. BENNETT IN BAHRAIN: NAFTALI BENNETT became the first Israeli prime minister to visit Bahrain today. The trip marked "a historic move for Israel as it attempts to fortify a regional axis of defense against Iran," per The Washington Post's SHIRA RUBIN , and it also "coincides with a final phase of negotiations in Vienna between Iran and world powers" to resurrect the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal. "In this turbulent era, it is important that our region in particular sends a message of cooperation and goodwill and standing against threats together," Bennett told reporters before flying to Bahrain. Along with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain was one of two Arab states that entered into the Abraham Accords with Israel, formally normalizing diplomatic relations between the nations. Crown Prince SALMAN BIN HAMAD AL-KHALIFA mentioned the Trump-era accords in a meeting with Bennett at the Gudaibiya Palace. "We must do more to get to know each other better and to further establish the Abraham agreements, which were such an important historic achievement," he said.
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The Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) will enable the U.S. to hold fixed, high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk in contested environments from stand-off distances. Learn more. | | | IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. Listen to Alex's appearance on WNYC's "The Takeaway" today.
| | | U.S. SEEKS EXTRADITION OF EX-HONDURAN PRESIDENT: The United States has formally requested the arrest and extradition of former Honduran President JUAN ORLANDO HERNÁNDEZ, per The Associated Press' MARLON GONZÁLEZ and CHRISTOPHER SHERMAN. Hernández, who has long been accused of corruption, left office last month upon the swearing-in of Houduras' current president, XIOMARA CASTRO, and immediately became the country's representative to the Central American Parliament. But on Monday night, "Honduran security forces surrounded Hernández's neighborhood," while Honduras' Supreme Court of Justice "scheduled an urgent meeting Tuesday morning to select a judge to handle the extradition request," according to the AP. The specific charges Hernández is set to face in the United States are still unknown, "but federal prosecutors in New York had previously named him a co-conspirator in a drug trafficking case, alleging that his political rise was fueled with drug profits. Hernández has long denied any wrongdoing." NEW NAVALNY TRIAL BEGINS: As the Western world remains fixated on preventing an invasion of Ukraine, a new criminal trial taking place in a Russian prison colony could result in jailed Kremlin critic ALEXEI NAVALNY having his sentence extended for up to a further 15 years, reports The Guardian's ANDREW ROTH. "The Russian opposition leader is accused of embezzling donations to his FBK anti-corruption organisation, which has accused VLADIMIR PUTIN of owning a £1bn mansion and other top officials enriching themselves through corrupt schemes," Roth writes. "Navalny has denied the charges and calls them politically motivated." Navalny's allies have attacked the Kremlin for holding the trial inside the faraway IK-2 penal colony in Vladimir — a three or four hours' drive east of Moscow — making it difficult for his supporters and other observers to attend the proceedings. Navalny is already serving a three-and-a-half-year sentence at the prison for a separate embezzlement charge.
| | | EU ISSUES CYBER WARNINGS: The European Union's cybersecurity arm ENISA is the latest cyber agency across the NATO bloc to circulate warnings about a potential wave of Russia-backed cyberattacks that could destabilize Western countries, per POLITICO's LAURENS CERULUS and MARK SCOTT. ENISA and its in-house cyber response team CERT-EU said in a joint statement that they'd "reported a substantial increase of cybersecurity threats for both private and public organisations across the EU." The authorities "strongly encourage all public and private sector organisations in the EU to adopt a minimum set of cybersecurity best practices" to avoid getting hacked, they said. And in an earlier, classified Joint Rapid Report dated last month and seen by POLITICO, ENISA and CERT-EU flagged possible attacks from "at least five major threat actors attributed to Russia," including hacking groups best known as Fancy Bear, Cozy Bear, Turla, Sandworm and Berserk Bear — all of which, except Sandworm, were last seen active in the EU in 2021.
| | | MIDEAST COMMANDER ADVANCES: Biden's pick to lead U.S. forces in the Middle East, Lt. Gen. MICHAEL KURILLA, is on his way to confirmation after the Senate Armed Services Committee approved his promotion this afternoon. SASC advanced Kurilla, currently commander of the Army's 18th Airborne Corps, along with 780 routine military officer promotions. If confirmed by the full Senate, he'll receive his fourth star and succeed Gen. FRANK MCKENZIE atop U.S. Central Command. DOD WARNS AGAINST DEFENSE MERGERS: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) wrote about the Pentagon's new defense-industrial base report, which warns against an increasing number of company mergers. "Over approximately the last three decades, the number of suppliers in major weapons system categories has declined substantially: Tactical missile suppliers have declined from 13 to 3, fixed-wing aircraft suppliers declined from 8 to 3, and satellite suppliers have halved from 8 to 4," the report says. "Today, 90% of missiles come from 3 sources." "As a result," it added, "promoting competition and ensuring it is fair and open for future programs is a critical Department priority." The report comes on the heels of Lockheed Martin's decision Sunday to walk away from its proposed $4.4 billion acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne after the Federal Trade Commission sued on grounds that it would stifle competition.
| | | SO MANY LAWMAKERS TO ISRAEL: Israel is about to welcome three separate congressional delegations to the region — all coming around the same time that the United States seeks reentry into the Iran nuclear deal. One delegation is led by House Speaker NANCY PELOSI. "We will meet with the leadership of Israel and leaders in the civic community to discuss the prospects for a two-state solution and regional security," she said in a statement. Some in the group also will visit Germany for the Munich Security Conference and the United Kingdom, while others will just travel to those countries and not Israel. Another delegation is hosted by J Street, the left-leaning pro-Israel group, which will ensure that lawmakers spend equal time speaking with Israelis and Palestinians during their weeklong trip. Rep. DAVID PRICE (D-N.C.), a member of the House Appropriations Committee, is the most senior member of that group. Finally, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee will send its own delegation to the region, with lawmakers staying at the same hotel as the J Street group, we're told. One person familiar said "we do not anticipate any complications from other trips by Members of Congress being in Israel at or about the same time."
| | | |   | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– PRO-IRAN DEAL GROUPS TARGET MENENDEZ: Eleven anti-war groups in favor of the Iran nuclear deal today sent a letter to Sen. BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) criticizing the lawmaker for his recent floor speech against America's reentry into the accord. "We write to express deep concern about your speech on the floor of the U.S. Senate on February 1, 2022, in which you undermined the Biden administration's diplomacy by opposing a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or the Iran nuclear deal," wrote the groups, including MoveOn, the Ploughshares Fund and Win Without War. "As an influential Democrat and Chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, it is both reckless and harmful to jeopardize a Democratic administration's diplomatic efforts without any realistic alternative to the JCPOA." They said that Menendez "recklessly" threatened war by suggesting that "the United States will not hesitate to take any action necessary" to keep a nuclear weapon out of the regime's hands. And they also accused him of failing to consider the plight of Iranian citizens when suggesting the U.S. place even more sanctions on Iran. It's doubtful the letter will change Menendez's mind. But it shows that progressives are already training their eye on the SFRC chair and longtime Iran hawk. Win Without War is already planning to run some pro-diplomacy ads in New Jersey. EURO LEADERS TARGET CATO: Nearly 90 former European leaders and experts wrote to the Cato Institute claiming that two fellows' stances on Ukraine have provided Russia with rhetorical ammo throughout the yearslong standoff. "In a most recent commentary by DOUG BANDOW … he called Western Ukrainians 'less Slavic peoples.' In 2014, Doug Bandow called Ukraine a 'fake country' and defended Russian influence over it,'" they wrote. "In his book, 'Gullible Superpower' … Cato Institute's TED GALEN CARPENTER presented some of the propagandist arguments generated by the Kremlin in its information warfare against the USA and the West," the signatories continued. "More specifically, Carpenter claimed that in 2014 Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity's protestors were killing other protestors and that Ukraine has been under a massive influence of neo-nazis ever since." Here's where we should say that we haven't read Carpenter's book, and we could only find the primary source for Bandow's "less Slavic peoples" comment, but not the "fake country" one. According to the letter's signatories, which include former Estonian Prime Minister MART LAAR, these and other remarks made their way into Russian state media, fueling the Kremlin's narrative that Ukraine's existence is an accident of history. The writers go on to request that Cato "consider the spillover effects of the articles" by Bandow and Carpenter, asking the libertarian-minded think tank to "become intellectually diverse on foreign policy issues and offer more balanced positions on the matters which influence countries' stability." A spokesperson for Cato declined to comment but pointed us to a recent blog post by the think tank's president, PETER GOETTLER, and board chair BOB LEVY: "Advocating for military restraint, of course, does not weaken our support for liberty nor our opposition to tyranny everywhere. The Cato Institute reaffirms its steadfast support for the liberty, human rights, and self-determination of the people of Ukraine — and indeed of people in Russia and around the world."
| | | — KATJA HOYER, MAC MARGOLIS and KEITH RICHBURG are joining The Washington Post as Global Opinions columnists. — DILAWAR SYED has been named special representative for commercial and business affairs at the State Department. POLITICO previously reported he was under consideration for the role. He was nominated in March to serve as deputy administrator of the Small Business Administration, but Senate Republicans have stalled his nomination.
| | | — RAJAN MENON, Defense Priorities: "A New and Better Security Order for Europe" — KENNETH R. ROSEN, POLITICO Magazine: " 'Kill Your Commanding Officer': On the Front Lines of Putin's Digital War With Ukraine" — LESLIE VINJAMURI, Foreign Affairs: "The Myth of Global Britain"
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At Lockheed Martin, customer focus, innovation and purpose are built into everything we do. Every mission is an expedition of the greatest importance: both to you, and to us. Learn more. | | | | | | — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: "What's Next for India and the Quad? — with SANA HASHMI, MANJARI CHATTERJEE MILLER and HARSH PANT" — The Air Force Association's Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, 10 a.m.: "Beyond Pixie Dust: A Framework for Understanding and Developing Autonomy in Unmanned Aircraft — with HEATHER PENNEY" — The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, 10 a.m.: "War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict — with ERIC EDELMAN, THOMAS MAHNKEN and MICK RYAN" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: "Project Convergence: An Experiment for Multidomain Operations — with GARY LAMBERT, TOBY MAGSIG and JAMES RICHARDSON" — House Oversight and Reform Committee, 10 a.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: Defending U.S. Allies and Interests Against Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe — with RICHARD GRENELL, BEN HODGES, ANDREA KENDALL-TAYLOR and MICHAEL MCFAUL " — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 10 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Western Balkans: Supporting Peace and Prosperity — with GABRIEL ESCOBAR and LISA MAGNO" — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 11 a.m.: "Who's Afraid of the Military Industrial Complex? The Shifting Politics of Pentagon Spending — with MICHAEL BRENES, WILLIAM HARTUNG, SHANA MARSHALL and KELLEY BEAUCAR VLAHOS " — The Atlantic Council, 12 p.m.: "Assessing the Impact of Iraq's Incoming Government — with FEISAL AL-ISTRABADI, MARSIN ALSHAMARY and SAJAD JIYAD" — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: "The Shrinking U.S. Fighting Force: Is the American Military Fading Into Irrelevance? — with BRYAN CLARK, DAN PATT and ARNOLD PUNARO" — The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 12 p.m.: "Targeting the Islamic State: Jihadist Military Threats and the U.S. Response — with IDO LEVY and CRAIG WHITESIDE" — The George Washington University's Security Policy Studies Program, 12:30 p.m.: "American Arctic Strategy for the 21st Century" — R Street, 1 p.m.: "The State of Cybersecurity Careers for Black Professionals — with MICHAELA BARNETT , JUMOKE DADA, TASHYA DENOSE, SAFI MOJIDI, LAUREN UNDERWOOD and SONJU WALKER" — House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, 2 p.m.: "Subcommittee Hearing: FEMA Priorities for 2022: Stakeholder Perspectives — with ERICA BORNEMANN, CHRIS CURRIE and CAROLYN HARSHMAN" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2 p.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Reinvigorating U.S.-Colombia Relations — with MARCELA ESCOBARI, BRIAN A. NICHOLS, CELINA B. REALUYO, DAN RESTREPO and TODD D. ROBINSON" — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2:30 p.m.: "Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters" — The Atlantic Council, 3 p.m.: " Preparing the United States for a Mineral-Intensive Future — with DOUGLAS LUTE, HELAINA MATZA and J. PETER PHAM" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 p.m.: " The Future of the Royal Navy — with BEN KEY"
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