Thursday, February 10, 2022

Here come the Covid midterms

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Feb 10, 2022 View in browser
 
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By David Siders

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi joins a bicameral and bipartisan group of lawmakers on the East Front of the U.S. Capitol for a moment of silence for the more than 900,000 people who have died from Covid-19.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi joins a bicameral and bipartisan group of lawmakers on the East Front of the U.S. Capitol for a moment of silence for the more than 900,000 people who have died from Covid-19. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

THE VIRUS VOTERS — Joe Biden always said he'd "follow the science" on Covid, and with few exceptions — such as the White House's premature declaration of victory over the pandemic — he's spent the past year doing just that, largely with the support of Democrats in Congress and in the states.

But from the beginning, politicians have weighed the politics of the pandemic along with the science. And in a Monmouth University poll last week, 7 in 10 Americans — including 47 percent of Democrats — agreed with the idea that "it's time we accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives." The poll was in line with other surveys suggesting people are tired of their restriction-altered realities. Almost on cue, Democratic-led states throughout the country started paring back mandates.

Biden was elected president in part — perhaps largely — because he promised to defeat the virus, to take more aggressive measures instead of punting the problem to the nation's governors, as President Donald Trump had done. But since he took office, the pandemic has been a persistent drag on Biden's presidency. Public approval of his handling of the virus has fallen underwater.

Republican strategists have described the pandemic to Nightly as a godsend, with its effects on both inflation and education, two of voters' top concerns, as well as on Biden's dismal public approval ratings.

GOP strategists are vowing to run on unpopular Covid restrictions even if they've been taken away. They gleefully predict that Biden's party will pay a price in the midterm elections for, in their view, waiting too long.

"They are waving the white freaking flag, after they've completely lost the war and have nothing else to do besides retreat," said Jeff Roe, the Republican strategist who managed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz's presidential campaign in 2016 and helped elect Glenn Youngkin governor of Virginia last year. "The female suburban independent, college educated voter? Good luck. Add people who are married with kids, and put them in the Republican camp. [Democrats] did more damage to that coalition in the last 14 months than any Republican has done in the last 14 years."

Fred Davis, a Republican ad maker, said that in the November elections, "People will remember that the supply chain was broken down, that kids didn't go to school … that the world closed up."

The prospect that people will remember school shutdowns and mask mandates and punish Democrats for them — is one possible outcome of pandemic politics, assuming the lull continues. But let's stipulate that, in November, children aren't wearing masks in schools, that families have spent the summer posing for pictures at Disney World and hugging Mickey Mouse.

In that Clorox-free scenario, it's not clear that Republicans are the party that will gain an advantage.

Take Covid away, and it's not unreasonable to think the mood of the electorate may improve, and that Biden's approval ratings might tick up — and perhaps help to limit Democrats' losses in the House.

"If Covid is in the rearview mirror and there's a return to, quote, normal, whatever normal is, the occupant of the White House will benefit," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

The other possibility — the more likely one, judging by recent history — is that if the pandemic really does subside, it may quickly fade from our politics altogether. In the run-up to last year's gubernatorial race in Virginia, politicians and strategists of both parties were bracing for the pandemic to feature heavily. But several weeks before the election, as Covid conditions improved, polling showed Covid receding as a priority for voters. Campaign advertising related to the pandemic nearly vanished.

And by the time Youngkin defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe, exit polls showed Covid lagging behind education and the economy and jobs as a top issue of concern. The pandemic still mattered to the extent that it infected those facets of life. But as a stand-alone issue, it was not all that salient.

This year, a pandemic-stayed November may look a lot like that — with Republicans likely to win back the House, but not because of Covid.

Republicans probably don't need it. They will have Biden's legislative difficulties to talk about — and gas prices and crime and critical race theory. And then there's whatever else happens — or whatever else the right can dream up — in the nine months before the election. By November, voters may have other things to worry about.

"I think what will be top on their minds is what they're seeing — inflation, gas prices," said Bob Heckman, a Republican consultant who has worked on nine presidential campaigns. "I don't even think they'll be thinking about Covid, to be honest."

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight's author at dsiders@politico.com, or on Twitter at @davidsiders.

 

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What'd I Miss?

— Biden says he's thoroughly reviewed 'about 4' SCOTUS candidates so far: Biden said today that he had thoroughly reviewed about four "well qualified and documented" candidates to fill Supreme Court Justice Stephen Breyer's seat on the bench. Biden, who has vowed to nominate the first Black woman to the Supreme Court, told NBC's Lester Holt that he'd done the "deep dive" on those contenders, making sure there was nothing in their background checks that might disqualify them.

Protestors and supporters set up at a blockade at the foot of the Ambassador Bridge, sealing off the flow of commercial traffic over the bridge into Canada from Detroit in Windsor, Canada.

Protestors and supporters set up at a blockade at the foot of the Ambassador Bridge, sealing off the flow of commercial traffic over the bridge into Canada from Detroit in Windsor, Canada. | Cole Burston/Getty Images

— Canadian bridge blockade could worsen Biden's economic headaches: The anti-vaccine protest blocking a critical trade route between the U.S. and Canada threatens to exacerbate two persistent economic challenges confronting the Biden administration: congested supply chains and rising consumer prices. A convoy of truckers opposing cross-border vaccine requirements has stopped traffic from crossing the Ambassador Bridge between Windsor, Ont. and Detroit, the busiest international crossing in North America that facilitates the exchange of more than $300 million worth of goods per day.

— Schumer moves to limit debate on FDA nomination: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer filed cloture today on Robert Califf's nomination to lead the Food and Drug Administration , signaling Democrats expect to have the votes to confirm him. The motion to limit debate on the cardiologist's nomination sets up a vote next week, meeting Senate HELP Chair Patty Murray's goal of shepherding him through the chamber ahead of the Presidents Day recess.

— Top D.C. lobbying firm reps company alleged by former employees to have paid off Taliban: A top Washington lobbying shop has agreed to represent the U.S. parent company of a major Afghan telecom alleged by three former employees and four former senior Afghan government officials to have paid money and extended other favors to the Taliban as they fought a bloody insurgency over the last 20 years. S-3 Group filed a lobbying disclosure Nov. 1 that it now represents Telephone Systems International, the holding company for Afghan Wireless, one of the largest mobile telephone operators in the country. The document, required by U.S. law, states three of its lobbyists — John Scofield, Jose Ceballos and Michael Long — will lobby on "access to wireless communication in Afghanistan."

— Senate clears #MeToo bill banning mandatory arbitration: The Senate cleared a bill today that would forbid clauses in employment contracts requiring workers to litigate sexual harassment and abuse cases in private , rather than a court, several years after the #MeToo movement drew attention to the issue. The legislation, which was passed by voice vote, has bipartisan support. Lawmakers drafted it in response to the #MeToo movement, which exposed how the clauses — known collectively as mandatory arbitration — prevent repeat offenders from being held accountable.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) surrounded by reporters.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) surrounded by reporters. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

HILL HUNG UP OVER SANCTIONS Bipartisan negotiations over how to deter a Russian invasion of Ukraine are at an impasse, top senators said today, amid fears that a Moscow invasion is imminent, Andrew Desiderio writes.

Senate Foreign Relations Chair Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) and the panel's top Republican, Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, indicated that their weekslong negotiations have hit several snags in recent days, including over the scope of sanctions to impose after a possible Russian incursion.

"We're running out of runway," Risch said bluntly. "It's important that the Senate of the United States express … where the United States is on this issue."

While both lawmakers have insisted that the effort isn't dead, the remaining disputes continue to threaten the time-sensitive package. Republicans and Democrats have long disagreed over the best way to deter a Russian invasion, with GOP lawmakers insisting that some sanctions should be imposed on the front end while Democrats argue that the sanctions should come only after an incursion.

"We're thinking of a different process to move forward," Menendez said, citing the impasse.

Nightly Number

7.5 percent

The annual inflation rate in the U.S., the highest since 1982 , according to a Labor Department report. This is the second report in a row where the number has broken 7 percent.

Parting Words

THE DJT TP OMG — Breaking news reporter Samuel Benson emails Nightly:

When it comes to Trump's bathroom records-keeping practices, the fits are hitting the newsstands.

A new book by New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman, scheduled for publication in October, flushes out new material on Trump's obsession with toilets. Staff in the White House residence told Haberman they periodically found a toilet clogged with wads of printed paper, leading them to believe Trump attempted to flush ripped documents.

Trump was quick to refute the reporting. He released a statement today, calling the story "categorically untrue and simply made up by a reporter in order to get publicity for a mostly fictitious book."

But today's powder room dust-up is only the latest saga in Trump's yearslong crusade against low-flow toilets and sinks. Krystal Campos put together this video of the greatest hits from Trump's WC CV.

Donald Trump talking about toilets

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