| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
Sections of pipe for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline lie stacked on August 04, 2021 in Sassnitz, Germany. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images | With help from Bryan Bender Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– The vote on Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline sanctions that Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) has forced will likely take place tomorrow, and behind the scenes there's a scramble by the administration and Ukraine-tied lobbyists to sway the outcome. The fight is evident in two dueling documents sent to lawmakers, both exclusively obtained by NatSec Daily. The State Department recently sent around a document titled "The Cruz Bill is Designed to Undermine the Unity of our Allies, not Punish Russia" to Senate Democrats in hopes of rallying them to vote against the Republican's measure. The administration packs a lot of arguments in five pages. They include: "If passed, the legislation would only serve to undermine unity amongst our European allies at a crucial moment"; the ability to deter a renewed Russian invasion of Ukraine with the threat of sanctions on the pipeline would be lost; reimposing sanctions on the pipeline would "split Transatlantic unity" by reversing America's deal with Germany; and the bill would make Europe vulnerable to Russia's energy monopoly in the dead of winter. Those in favor of Cruz's bill won't let those points stand unanswered. Yorktown Solutions' DANIEL VAJDICH, who advises the Ukrainian state-run energy company Naftogaz and engages with officials in Kyiv on the pipeline and other energy matters, sent around a "non paper " countering the administration's arguments. Vajdich wrote that the document, emailed to nearly every Senate Democratic office and about half of Senate Republican ones, was "assembled by Ukraine's energy federation and consistent with the positions of the Government of Ukraine, as expressed by President [VOLODYMYR] ZELENSKY, Prime Minister [DENYS] SHMYGAL, and Speaker of Parliament RUSLAN STEFANCHUK." Among the main assertions: Ukrainian leadership wants sanctions reimposed on Nord Stream 2 because its completion threatens Kyiv's security; trans-Atlantic unity wouldn't be harmed — and might even be strengthened — by an unfinished pipeline; sanctions by themselves won't deter a new Russian invasion; and Germany's new government on the whole opposes the energy throughway. A person close to the Zelenskyy administration texted us: "I can assure you the non paper that Naftogaz has sent reflects the view of the Ukrainian gov." In a text exchange, Vajdich said the administration's fact sheet "is light on facts and includes numerous pieces of misleading information, giving Senate Democrats an inaccurate impression about what the administration and German government have and haven't done on Nord Stream 2." The question is if the pro-Cruz side is too late with its lobbying campaign. A new bill introduced today by 26 Senate Democrats, led by Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair BOB MENENDEZ (D-N.J.) is designed to take the wind of out Cruz's sails, while still allowing Dems to get tough on the Kremlin. The Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act of 2022 , an offspring of Menendez's NDAA amendment from December, would place sanctions on Russia's banking sector should the country re-invade Ukraine, as well as "prohibit transactions on Russia's primary and secondary sovereign debt and authorize sanctions on Russia's extractive industries as well as on providers of specialized financial messaging services." The bill also authorizes up to $500 million in extra defensive weapons and materiel for Ukraine. The White House was consulted during the bill's drafting and has already thrown its support behind the measure. Some on the Hill told NatSec Daily that this measure provides the political cover needed for pro-Ukraine Democrats to vote against Cruz's bill. That unquestionably harms the Vajdich-led push, but he vows his efforts won't stop even if Cruz's bill gets struck down. "The fight to stop Nord Stream 2 will continue," he told NatSec Daily. "Congress will impose sanctions to stop the project sooner or later." | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– SHERMAN'S POWERFUL STATEMENT AT NATO: A source familiar with the events sent us some remarkable color about the NATO-Russia meeting today, specifically how Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN chose to get her point across in that forum. Sherman, the last one to speak in the meeting following comments by NATO's 29 allies and Russia's deputy foreign minister, handwrote her concluding remarks while she listened to them all. As she delivered, the personal familiar said "you could hear a pin drop in the room." She addressed the Russians directly: "You've come as one to a room of 30. We are 30. But here at NATO, we are one." As she spoke, the Russians started passing notes and whispering among themselves. Seeing that, Sherman stopped her remarks and demanded the Russians pay attention to her. "The room again was silent," the person said. The deputy secretary proceeded to weave in her family history, noting how her grandmother was from Russia — modern-day Ukraine — and her father served in the Marines during World War II, a war where the U.S. and Soviet Union fought the Nazis. That's of particular resonance to Sherman, a Jewish American. "There were tears in the eyes of some allies' representatives," this person told us. "Afterwards the secretary general rushed up to the deputy secretary to praise her speech," adding "other representatives said it was one of the most powerful speeches they had heard." Sherman still made sure to note that Russia would face severe consequences if it chose violence over diplomacy: "The secretary general of NATO has offered another and better path. The Polish chairman-in-office of the OSCE has offered another and better path. The French presidency of the Council of the European Union has offered another and better path. And so has the president of the United States." NO BREAKTHROUGH IN NATO-RUSSIA TALKS: After nearly four hours of back-and-forth between NATO members and Russia in Brussels, the military alliance's chief said "significant differences" remained on the situation in Ukraine. "NATO allies made it clear that, of course, we are open for dialogue. We can discuss many issues. But we cannot discuss some core principles," NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said in a news conference following negotiations. He added that NATO suggested holding more meetings on Ukraine, but the Russians neither accepted nor declined the offer. DAVID HERSZENHORN , who's following the high-stakes diplomacy in Europe for POLITICO, reported afterward that "[t]he inconclusive outcome suggested that after Wednesday's meeting, and an initial eight hours of bilateral talks with the U.S. in Geneva on Monday, Russian diplomats now need to return home to receive further instructions from President VLADIMIR PUTIN." "There is a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe," Stoltenberg said, noting the alliance is "clear-eyed about the risk for a breakdown [in] all these talks." At her own news conference Wednesday, Sherman said she left the NATO-Russia Council meeting having not learned anything about Moscow's negotiating position that she didn't already know. "I would say I did not hear substantively new things," Sherman told reporters. Sherman also reported that Moscow remained mum about its intentions for Ukraine, where roughly 100,000 Russian troops have assembled along the country's eastern frontier. "There was no commitment to deescalate, nor was there a statement that there would not be," she said, choosing her words carefully. As for NATO's stance, Sherman insisted the alliance's members were united in their opposition to Russia potentially ramping up its aggression. "Every one of the allies in NATO laid out the same set of principles, the same hopes and expectations of Russia. Every single one, without exception," she said. The talks now move to Vienna, where the Permanent Council of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe will meet Thursday. BIDEN'S UKRAINE WEAPONS ORDER: As NatSec Daily reported yesterday, Biden used a little-known authority to authorize up to $200 million in extra weapons shipments to Ukraine to help the country defend itself against another Russian invasion. As part of that authority, Biden's team must notify Congress of the impending transfers of arms — and we obtained the actual notification. The Dec. 28 Congressional Transmittal Letter, sent by State's Congressional lead NAZ DURAKOGLU to the top members of relevant committees and leadership in both chambers, includes an unclassified section explaining the decision to send more weaponry to Ukraine. That section, signed by Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN, says he determined that an "unforeseen emergency exists which requires immediate military assistance to Ukraine; and The emergency requirement cannot be met under the authority of the Arms Control Act or any other provision of law." "I, therefore, pursuant to authority delegated to me by the President, direct the drawdown of up to $200 million in defense articles and services of the Department of Defense, and military education and training … to provide assistance to Ukraine," Blinken continued, adding that State "will coordinate implementation of this drawdown." Rep. JASON CROW (D-Colo.), a House Armed Services Committee member who traveled to Ukraine in December, told NatSec Daily that the package includes "munitions and other basic military support" alongside the already-reported radar systems and maritime equipment. "I was pushing the administration to do this," he told us, adding he's a "proponent of this authority." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Lockheed Martin's LMXT is built in America by Americans for Americans. The LMXT leverages 60 years of experience producing tanker aircraft for the U.S. Air Force, U.S. Marine Corps, U.S. Navy, and multiple operators around the world. Learn More | | | A FEW GOOD NUKE NERDS: The MacArthur Foundation, which has been the leading backer of arms controllers for decades, is opening its checkbook one last time before ending its philanthropic support in the nuclear field. The final grants, to 28 organizations to the tune of $21.3 million, give particular emphasis to helping to cultivate a new and more diverse generation of nuclear specialists, our own BRYAN BENDER reports. "MacArthur's goal for these grants is to help generate increased attention, recognition, and influence of diverse voices including voices of women and Black, Indigenous, and People of Color experts in the nuclear field," the foundation said in announcing the recipients this week . MacArthur's final nuclear grants are also supporting new research challenging deterrence theory as well as tackling the "nexus of nuclear and climate risks." As Bender previously reported, MacArthur's announcement last year that it is exiting the nuclear field to focus on other areas of philanthropy came as a big blow to the arms control and disarmament community. IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | 'CHERNOBYL' AT STATE: HuffPost's AKBAR SHAHID AHMED reports how Covid-19 has decimated the State Department's ranks in recent weeks — hitting right as the diplomatic agency needs to be tip-top for negotiations with the Russians and Iranians. "The State Department is experiencing a stunning surge in COVID-19 cases, three U.S. officials told HuffPost this week. One said the situation is internally being called 'Chernobyl,' a nod to the worst nuclear disaster in history," Ahmed reported. "Some staff say the agency is still putting them at risk and making it harder for them to cope with being sick if they do contract the virus. A career staffer told HuffPost that personnel 'feel pressured to be in [the] majority of the time and it's a bit scary.'" It's not just State's HQ in Washington that's affected: America's embassies and consulates around the world have been impacted, though the true extent is unclear. CAR BOMB KILLS 8 IN SOMALIA: A car bomb killed at least eight people and injured another nine Wednesday in Mogadishu, Somalia's capital. The al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab terrorist group claimed reponsibility for the attack, The New York Times' ABDI LATIF DAHIR reported. A news website affiliated with the extremists, Somali Memo, published that al-Shabab purposefully targeted "a convoy of vehicles carrying white security officers." "Photos and videos posted on social media showed a plume of smoke rising from a mangled vehicle at the site of the bombing along with damaged buildings. Witnesses said the explosion could be heard in many of the city's districts," Dahir wrote.
| | | KAZAKHSTAN'S BITCOIN FALLOUT: A side effect of the protests in Kazakhstan is that bitcoin mining has taken a severe hit, seeing as the Central Asian country is the world's No. 2 locale for that practice, Wired's GIAN VOLPICELLI reported. "The shutdown's impact on crypto mining was evident — the Bitcoin network has lost 12 percent of its hashrate so far. JARAN MELLERUD, an analyst at cryptocurrency insights company Arcane Research, estimates that the shutdown alone might have cost Kazakh miners $7.2 million," Volpicelli wrote. Protests aren't the only problem for Bitcoin miners: Kazakhstan's aging power grid is struggling to function, especially as residents turn up the heat during winter months. The problem, though, is that miners can't really move their infrastructure elsewhere at the moment. "All the other major countries that have cryptocurrency mining infrastructure — including Russia, Canada, and the US — are grappling with an acute shortage of adequate facilities," Volpicelli noted. | | | |   | | | | | | NAVY SHIPBUILDING: Our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note that Adm. MICHAEL GILDAY, chief of naval operations, told the Surface Navy Association that the 30-year shipbuilding plan due soon will be solely in his service's purview. The document will "show what the art of the possible is based on different funding profiles," Gilday shared, and while "our analysis has shown that we need way more than [the legally mandated 355 ships], for me, 355 is a great target right now." It's not clear whether that 355 goal will include several new classes of experimental unmanned ships. Gilday bemoaned the service's failure to "deliver game-changing, innovative technologies and concepts at pace," especially as the Chinese fleet continues to modernize "backed by a robust industrial base and the biggest shipbuilding infrastructure in the world." Gilday also made a new pitch for a bigger budget. "I'd really like to have a topline to have a bigger Navy. I think we need a bigger Navy," he said. ARMY UPS ENLISTMENT BONUS: The Army is offering up to $50,000 to new recruits, a sign that the service is struggling to bring in new talent during the pandemic, The Associated Press' LOLITA BALDOR reported. "Maj. Gen. KEVIN VEREEN , head of Army Recruiting Command, told AP that shuttered schools and the competitive job market over the past year have posed significant challenges for recruiters. So heading into the most difficult months of the year for recruiting, the Army is hoping that some extra cash and a few other changes will entice qualified young people to sign up," Baldor wrote. "We are still living the implications of 2020 and the onset of COVID, when the school systems basically shut down," Vereen told her. "We lost a full class of young men and women that we didn't have contact with, face-to-face." So who gets the money? Per Baldor: "those who sign up for a six-year enlistment in one of several high-demand career fields can get bonuses that total as much as $50,000. Given the high standards, it will be difficult for many to qualify for the top bonus.
| | | TOP LAWMAKERS QUESTION ADMIN ON SYRIA: The top Democrats and Republicans on the Senate and House foreign relations/affairs committees wrote a letter to Biden panning his handling of Syrian President BASHAR ASSAD. "Given Assad's horrific crimes against the Syrian people, the United States has long maintained that the international community cannot reintegrate the Syrian regime without meaningful reforms that demonstrate accountability and reflect the will of the Syrian people. We urge your Administration to reinforce that position," wrote Sens. Menendez and JIM RISCH (R-Idaho) alongside Reps. GREGORY MEEKS (D-N.Y.) and MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas). "We are concerned that a number of our Arab partners continue to increase their formal and informal relationships with the Assad regime, including the establishment of official diplomatic outposts and publicly released diplomatic overtures," the lawmakers continued. As NatSec Daily has previously reported , Syrian resistance leaders continue to lobby Congress and the administration to oppose Assad's reintegration into the international community. Critics fear the U.S. isn't doing enough to sway its allies from welcoming Syria back into the fold — which may have prompted this rare bipartisan letter. AFGHANISTAN BRIEFING: The Senate Foreign Relations Committee has announced a Jan. 26 classified briefing on Afghanistan with SecState Blinken and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN. It's a rare get for the panel to have the Pentagon chief, as the Defense Department doesn't fall under the SFRC's jurisdiction. | | | WALTZ RIPS ADMIN ON AFGHAN AID: A day after the White House announced an additional $308 million in humanitarian aid for the people of Afghanistan, Rep. MIKE WALTZ (R-Fla.) said on Fox News that the money will eventually end up in Taliban hands. Instead, Waltz proposes a different funding target. "Why aren't they giving at least a portion of that money to these veterans groups who have so heroically stepped up when their government failed, and are still to this day keeping thousands of Afghans who are being targeted by the Taliban safe in safe houses," the House Armed Services Committee member and former Green Beret said Wednesday said. Waltz says withholding money would give the administration leverage with the Taliban, eventually forcing the group to allow girls back in school, end the manhunts for U.S. partners during the 20-year war and release the American hostages they're holding. Waltz has long been one of the administration's harshest critics on Afghanistan, going so far as to say the president holds the worst human rights record of any president in modern history. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: LMXT: America's next strategic tanker.
Improved range and fuel offload, INDOPACOM base flexibility, automatic air-to-air refueling, and enhanced defensive systems come together in our next strategic tanker. Learn More | | | | | | — Two moves on the Democratic side of the House Armed Services Committee: CALEB RANDALL-BODMAN is now the communications director having previously been the deputy. CHRISTOPHER ESTEP has assumed the role of press secretary and digital director for the majority. — ANDREW MARA was named the executive vice president of CNA's Center for Naval Analyses. Before assuming this role, Mara spent 11 years as an analyst, division director and deputy director in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Cost Assessment & Program Evaluation.
| | | — ERICA MARAT and ASSEL TUTUMLU, Foreign Policy: "Kazakhstan's Protests Aren't a Color Revolution" — JOSHUA KEATING, Grid: " Invading Ukraine Would Be a Terrible Idea for Putin. He Might Do It Anyway." — JOHN HUDSON, The Washington Post: "Biden Mulled Reducing Support for France's Military Operations in Africa. Instead, He Doubled Down."
| | | — The Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association, 8 a.m.: "Northern Virginia Virtual Army IT Day 2022: The Digital Transformation Driving Convergence — with STEPHEN BUCK, RAJ IYER, LLOYD MCCOY, PATRICK SURBECK, MIKE YARMIE and more" — The Brookings Institution, 9 a.m.: "U.S.-Jordan Relations: Jordan's Vision for the Future — with AYMAN SAFADI" — Senate Armed Services Committee, 9:30 a.m.: " Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with MELISSA DALTON, JOHN PLUMB and CELESTE WALLANDER" — Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, 10:15 a.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: Nominations — with MARGARET A. BURNHAM, GABRIELLE M. DUDLEY, HENRY KLIBANOFF and BRENDA E. STEVENSON" — Washington Post Live, 11 a.m.: "Securing Cyberspace — with DMITRI ALPEROVITCH, JEREMY SHERIDAN and TONYA UGORETZ" — The Institute of World Politics, 5 p.m.: "Global Security in the Era of Advanced AI — with MARK BEALL" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who sends us "non papers" about how great his views are all the time. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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