Wednesday, January 12, 2022

It's Hard to Trust This 9.6% Yielder

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A 9.6% Yielder Likely to Cut Again

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

It's been awhile since I last covered MFA Financial (NYSE: MFA). Back in July 2019, I said there wasn't much to like about the prospects of the company's $0.20 per share quarterly dividend. I rated it an "F," expecting a dividend cut in the near future due to falling net interest income and recent dividend cuts.

Less than a year later, MFA Financial eliminated its dividend entirely. The mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) reinstated the dividend in September of 2020 at $0.05 per share - 75% below where it had been in 2019.

Since then, MFA Financial has raised the dividend three times to where it currently stands at $0.11 per share, which is still 45% below the 2019 level.

Can the company maintain even that lower payout?

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In 2021, net interest income, the measure of cash flow we use for mortgage REITs, is expected to come in at $204.2 million. MFA Financial is forecast to have paid out $169.8 million in dividends for a payout ratio of 83%, which is fine for a REIT.

However, excluding 2020, net interest income is at its lowest level since the mortgage meltdown in 2008.

MFA Financial's Net Interest Income
 

So we have a company that can't get its net interest income moving in the right direction. MFA Financial also has a history that includes not only cutting the dividend but eliminating it entirely less than a year and a half ago.

Unless net interest income starts moving in the right direction, expect another dividend cut in the not-too-distant future.

Dividend Safety Rating: F

Dividend Grade Guide
 

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Good investing,

Marc

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