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"I don't think anybody is thinking of sending troops to Ukraine," Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister Ann Linde said. "That is not the answer that will be coming." | Virginia Mayo/AP Photo | The most important diplomatic week in the U.S.-Russia standoff over Ukraine kicks off Monday — even as both sides remain far apart on the key issue: How much freedom Kyiv and other European capitals should have to join the NATO alliance. Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN will first travel to Geneva to discuss the Ukraine situation with her Russian counterpart, SERGEI RYABKOV. Talks will move to Brussels on Wednesday for a NATO-Russia meeting, followed by a Thursday tête-à-tête with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. If jaw jaw doesn't work, then logic holds that the only remaining course is war war, except that the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency option is already off the table. That point, emphasized already by President JOE BIDEN, was reiterated Friday by Swedish Foreign Affaris Minister ANN LINDE. "We've said that there needs to be a robust answer, and what we're thinking of is different kind[s] of economic sanctions. … I don't think anybody is thinking of sending troops to Ukraine. That is not the answer that will be coming," she told a small group of experts and reporters virtually gathered by the Center for American Progress. Her remarks echoed what NatSec Daily and our POLITICO colleagues keep hearing: That despite all the tough rhetoric on both sides of the Atlantic, no one's really looking for a fight, save for the possible implementation of tough economic measures. What's unclear at the moment is how much of this is rhetoric to deescalate tensions and how much of it is a true aversion to battle. Linde joined the discussion ostensibly to discuss her nation's commitment to curbing climate change and her vision of a feminist foreign policy . But the conversation quickly turned to the world's most-watched standoff and how Sweden — along with Europe writ-large — sees the situation. Simply put: Stockholm is as confused as Washington is. "What we don't know is the intention of the Russian proposals," Linde said, referencing Moscow's list of demands such as a veto over troop deployments in NATO's east or the end of America's nuclear protection of allies . "Are they serious, or do they just want to put those proposals — which some are totally unacceptable — on the table, using that as a pretext when they are planning to do something worse with military means?" Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN made a similar point during a new conference today: "I think that's certainly part of the playbook, is to put out a list of absolutely non-starter demands and then to claim that the other side is not engaging." Few expect a week's worth of talks to change much, as both sides remain far apart on the key issues. On whether NATO should keep its door open to nations who want to join — namely Ukraine and Georgia — alliance members and partners say yes while the Kremlin says nyet. Linde, who represents a non-NATO member, said "I definitely think that the door should be open. … I don't think that NATO will agree to close that door. I think they will be very steadfast on pursuing the open door policy." NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG said as much today, telling reporters in Brussels that "we will not compromise on core principles, including the right for every nation to decide its own path, including what kind of security arrangements it wants to be a part of." Finland's leader this week also reminded his Russian neighbors that the Nordic nation reserves the right to join NATO. That stance is precisely what Ryabkov will rail against next week. Just on Thursday he told The Wall Street Journal's MICHAEL R. GORDON that Kyiv's ties with NATO forces means "Ukraine de facto is already a NATO member." Of course, Ukraine itself would disagree, noting that NATO countries aren't obligated to defend it if attacked — precisely because it isn't in the alliance. At least, Linde said, the Biden administration's stance toward Europe is much improved from the Trump years: "It's much more easy now, because we share so many more of our values [and] the things we would like to do together. For me, it's kind of a relief." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is breaking barriers in hypersonic tech with the world's most advanced portfolio.
The Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) will enable the U.S. to hold fixed, high-value, time-sensitive targets at risk in contested environments from stand-off distances. Learn More | | | | | | HARRIS WAS INSIDE DNC ON JAN. 6 NEAR PIPE BOMB: Then-Vice President elect KAMALA HARRIS was inside the Democratic National Committee on Jan. 6 last year, when a pipe bomb was discovered outside the building, our own BETSY WOODRUFF SWAN, CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO and KYLE CHENEY report. This revelation, based on four sources, "raises the chilling prospect that the riots could have been far more destructive than they already were, with the incoming vice president's life directly endangered," they wrote. The pipe bomb discovered outside the DNC and another outside the Republican National Committee were described by the FBI as "viable" and said they "could have been detonated, resulting in serious injury or death." The New York Times' BLAKE HOUNSHELL asked the same question we had: "How did we not know this earlier?" U.S.-JAPAN DEFENSE PACTS: Tokyo and Washington will soon sign two defense agreements, per Blinken: one to support U.S. forces in the East Asian country and another to jointly develop new technologies. "We're launching a new research and development agreement that will make it easier for our scientists, for engineers and program managers, to collaborate on emerging defense-related issues: countering hypersonic threats, advancing space capabilities," Blinken said before he and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN met virtually with their counterparts Thursday evening. "When Japanese and American researchers bring their complementary strengths to bear, we can out-compete and out-innovate anyone." Japan will pay the U.S. $1.82 billion annually to house 55,000 troops in the country under the new hosting deal. FRENCH FM: PROGRESS ON IRAN DEAL, BUT TIME RUNNING SHORT: French Foreign Minister JEAN-YVES LE DRIAN said today that there's still a good chance that parties to the 2015 Iran deal will agree to reenter the lapsed nonproliferation pact but warned that the clock is ticking. "I remain convinced we can reach a deal. Bits of progress have been made in the last few days," he told France's BFM TV and RMC Radio. "We have been heading in a positive direction in the last few days, but time is of the essence, because if we don't get an accord quickly there will be nothing to negotiate." This seems to be the new line for Western diplomats, with State Department spokesperson NED PRICE speaking Thursday of "modest progress" in the talks. Meanwhile, some officials in Israel — which isn't a party to the nuclear accord — are privately expressing confidence that the many rounds of talks in Vienna will end in success. "It will be a big surprise if some kind of deal doesn't emerge from Vienna," a senior Israeli official told Axios' BARAK RAVID this week. That said, there will surely be some private griping in Jerusalem should the accord come back on the books. DRINKS WITH NATSEC DAILY: At the end of every long, hard week, we like to highlight how a prominent member of Washington's national security scene prefers to unwind with a drink. Today, we're featuring EMILY HORNE , chief spokesperson for the National Security Council. She told us about her husband KEVIN KIERNAN's "elaborate brewing operation in our backyard," which features "multiple refrigerators in the shed." Kevin's homebrewing sparked a new pastime: gathering outside with friends around the firepit to enjoy his concoctions. It's "been a welcome bright spot amidst the challenges of the pandemic," she said. So which of Kevin's beers is Emily's favorite? It's called The Deep Stout, and no wonder: It won a silver medal in the 2021 National Homebrew Competition. Cheers, Emily (and Kevin!). IT'S FRIDAY. WELCOME TO THE WEEKEND: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | 'SHOOT TO KILL' IN KAZAKHSTAN: Kazakh President KASSYM-JOMART TOKAYEV has authorized security forces "to shoot to kill without warning" as he seeks to stamp out days of violent anti-government protests across the Central Asian nation, per The Associated Press' DASHA LITVINOVA. "Those who don't surrender will be eliminated," Tokayev said in a televised address. The authorization comes as Kazakhstan's Ministry of Internal Affairs has reported 26 protesters killed by security forces, another 26 protesters wounded and more than 3,800 people detained. Among law enforcement, 18 officers have been reported killed and more than 700 others injured. The White House has called for a peaceful resolution to the conflict and warned against potential human rights violations after Tokayev requested assistance earlier this week from the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Russian-led military bloc of six nations. But Tokayev's address Friday is likely to exacerbate those international concerns; he criticized proposed talks with protesters as "nonsense" and asked rhetorically, "What negotiations can be held with criminals, murderers?" MARIE STRUTHERS, Amnesty International's Director for Eastern Europe and Central Asia, condemned Tokayev's authorization in a statement, describing it as "unlawful and a recipe for disaster." She added: "Unless this order is immediately and clearly revoked, Kazakhstan's already abysmal human rights record and the ongoing crisis which it has produced are set to get worse." Make sure you read NatSec Daily's top story yesterday on Kazakhstan. | | | |   | | | | | | FACEBOOK'S DATA CENTER ANGERING DUTCH: Facebook's parent company, Meta, plans to build a massive data center in the small town of Zeewolde in the Netherlands — and it's pissing residents off. "[R]esidents of Zeewolde are outraged that Meta has chosen their town for its first gigantic data center in the Netherlands. They claim the company will be allowed to syphon off a large percentage of the country's renewable energy supply to power porn, conspiracy theories, and likes on Meta's social platforms," Wired's MORGAN MEAKER reported. "Their attitude reflects a wider shift against Big Tech's plans to flock to the Netherlands, one of three key hubs for data centers in Europe alongside the UK and Germany, turning the issue into a national debate ahead of local elections later this year." "We don't oppose data centers at all," CAROLINE DE ROOS of the biodiversity group Land von Ons told Meaker. "What we are opposed to is the use of this superb, really excellent agricultural ground for the data center or any industry. It's a waste of cropland." What's more, residents also believe Meta will take more from the local community than it will give back. "We don't gain too much from all this," said SUSAN SCHAAP, one of the leaders of the anti-Meta-in-Zeewolde movement. The company "speaks about community programs and social return. But that's just a big joke, because it's going to be peanuts compared to what we give to them." | | | DOD'S NEW FOREIGN WEAPONS SALES CHIEF: The Pentagon has a new boss overseeing foreign weapons sales with the appointment this week of JAMES HURSCH as director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) note. Hursch took over from HEIDI GRANT, who left DSCA in November and raised eyebrows by starting at Boeing the very next day as VP of business development for international sales programs. Hursch, who served in a variety of jobs in DoD and in NATO, has a full plate as the Biden administration addresses a stalled sale of F-35s to UAE, the potential sale of MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones to Indonesia and possible new weapons for Ukraine. | | | TURNER'S TIME: Our own OLIVIA BEAVERS and ANDREW DESIDERIO are out with a sharp profile of the House Intelligence Committee's new top Republican, Rep. MIKE TURNER of Ohio. Lawmakers in both parties are hoping the congressman can help turn down the temperature on the key national security panel, which has seen intense partisan battles in recent years under Turner's predecessor, former Rep. DEVIN NUNES (R-Calif.). As Beavers and Desiderio explain, however, Turner himself has contributed to the committee's rancorous atmosphere; the lawmaker signed onto a 2019 letter calling for the removal of Chair ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.). But in a possible sign of a detente, Turner repeatedly declined to endorse Schiff's potential ouster in an interview this week. "Obviously, Adam Schiff is not going to change fundamentally who he is. And that certainly is going to be a complicating factor," Turner told POLITICO. "But on national security, I have a strong record of being able to work across the aisle and to try to advance what's important to our country. And I'm going to continue in that vein." As for Turner's broader worldview, Beavers and Desiderio note "his tendency to reaffirm the neoconservative foreign-policy doctrines that Trump's allies sought to eviscerate and replace with a populist, isolationist" perspective. He memorably clashed with Fox News host TUCKER CARLSON last November over U.S. support for Ukraine in territorial disputes with Russia. | | | IRAN DEAL OPPONENTS PUSH MILITARY OPTION: Two of Washington's most prominent Iran hawks penned a Wall Street Journal op-ed encouraging Biden to prepare military options should Tehran push to build a nuclear weapon. "The red line for military action will come when Iran's timeline to sprint to a nuclear weapon shrinks to less than the Pentagon's response time. On the current trajectory, that could happen early this year. If and when it does, the president should order military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities to prevent Tehran from building the bomb," wrote the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies' MARK DUBOWITZ and the Atlantic Council's MATTHEW KROENIG . "American strikes would delay Iran's efforts by years at minimum and forever at best. Tehran can't enrich uranium without the necessary facilities." "If all else fails, Mr. Biden should be prepared to destroy Iran's nuclear program. The risks of this approach pale in comparison to the threat of living with a nuclear-armed Iran for decades to come," the concluded. Kroenig has long favored military strikes and broke onto the D.C. expert scene with a viral 2012 Foreign Affairs piece titled " Time to Attack Iran." Dubowitz and his organization have long criticized the Iran deal, saying it wouldn't prevent Tehran from ultimately acquiring a nuclear weapon, though he now says he wanted the pact to remain in force. | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | | | | — KRISTIE CANEGALLO will become the Department of Homeland Security's chief of staff on Jan. 10. Currently Google's vice president for trust and safety, Canegallo served in the Pentagon and also the National Security Council in both the Bush II and Obama administrations. JENNIFER HIGGINS , who had been serving as the acting chief of staff, will become the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services' deputy director. — SHAWN BENNETT is now director for clean energy at the Council on Environmental Quality in the White House. He most recently was chief of innovation for the Office of Energy Assurance at the U.S. Air Force. | | | — HANNAH BLOCH, NPR: "For many Afghans, winter is forcing a cruel choice of whether to eat or stay warm" — JONATHAN GUYER, Vox: " The rehabilitation of Trump national security officials says a lot about Washington" — JOYU WANG, The Wall Street Journal: "'Revenge Recalls' Spark Debate in Taiwan: How Much Democracy Is Too Much?" | | | — The Foreign Policy Research Institute, 10 a.m.: "Ethiopia: What Does Peace Look Like? — with AURELIA BRAZEAL, CHARLES A. RAY, DAVID SHINN and DECLAN WALSH" — The Wilson Center, 10 a.m.: "The Geopolitical Implications of the European Green Deal — with ANNE BERGENFELT, DAVID LIVINGSTON, WOLFGANG PETRITSCH, ANDREAS RASPOTNIK and JEREMY SHAPIRO" — The National Press Club, 2 p.m.: "NPC Virtual Newsmaker: Aruba's Prime Minister EVELYN WEVER-CROES — with LISA MATTHEWS Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who has also taken the military option off the table in his dealings with us. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Lockheed Martin is breaking barriers in hypersonic tech with the world's most advanced portfolio.
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