| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
President Joe Biden is pictured during a video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on December 7, 2021. | The White House/Twitter | With help from Nahal Toosi, Paul McLeary and Daniel Lippman. Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint As Russia threatens Ukraine, the focus has centered on America's response to the threat and Tuesday's call between Presidents JOE BIDEN and VLADIMIR PUTIN. But U.S. officials and analysts NatSec Daily has talked to in recent days said how Europe handles this crisis is most consequential. "The Euros will absolutely need to step in and do more. Can't be a US-centric effort. That is literally what Russia wants," a senior Democratic Hill aide texted us. That theme has led to tense conversations in Washington, as the administration tells lawmakers European nations are steeled for a long-haul deterrence effort against Russia. During a classified briefing on Ukraine for Senators Monday night, for example, State Department No. 3 VICTORIA NULAND scuffled with Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) over the reliability of Germany's assurances, people familiar with the discussion told us. Cruz also said that waiving sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline incentivized Putin's current aggression toward Ukraine. Nuland fired back that the energy throughway was still a twinkle in the Kremlin's eye when Russia invaded Crimea in 2014, one of the people said. The president and his team assert multilateralism is the only way to get Putin to stand down. Biden held a Monday call with his counterparts in Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom to discuss "a coordinated and comprehensive approach" to the situation, and they chatted again today after the two-hour Biden-Putin call. Reports also have emerged that the U.S. wants Germany to stop the Nord Stream 2 pipeline's completion should Russian forces cross over into Ukraine. These and other actions make sense, per experts. "Europe has much more economic leverage over Russia than the U.S., especially in the energy sector, so if the U.S. can't get Europeans on board, the effect will be significantly diminished," ALINA POLYAKOVA, president and CEO of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, D.C., told us Monday. But even if governments across the Atlantic agree with the U.S.-led plan –– "there is a strong will to prevent Russia from doing any worse harm in Ukraine," a European official told us –– there are some who doubt they have the drive to resist Moscow. "They're not willing to use that leverage because they don't want to antagonize Russia," said RACHEL RIZZO, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. "Until the Europeans put actual capabilities behind the rhetoric, the United States is always going to be a more important part of this equation." This puts the Biden administration in a bind, as the world looks to it to stop Putin in his tracks. U.S. officials already are considering sending more lethal aid to Ukraine to help Kyiv defend itself as well as more punitive sanctions on the Russian economy. JAKE SULLIVAN , the national security adviser, said Biden told Putin that the U.S. would send more weaponry to Ukraine and "capabilities" to NATO members, and place crushing sanctions on Russia if Putin approves an invasion, saying the U.S. has closely coordinated with European allies on these and other measures. "We still do not believe President Putin has made a decision" on whether to authorize an incursion, he added. Lawmakers hope Putin got the message. "The United States must stand strong in holding the Kremlin to account. I am pleased that the Biden administration is considering additional sanctions against Russia to condemn its violation of Ukraine's territorial sovereignty and inflict economic harm," said Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), a Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committee member. But the administration has also made clear they have no interest in getting militarily involved in a potential conflict. "[T]the United States is not seeking to end up in a circumstance in which the focus of our countermeasures is the direct use of American military force, as opposed to a combination of support for the Ukrainian military, strong economic countermeasures and the substantial increase in support and capability to our NATO allies to ensure that they remain safe," a senior administration official told reporters Monday. With estimates that Russian forces will advance by early February, there's concern a united effort won't come into view on time. "If only some members could stop playing domestic political games and realize the window to send an effective deterrence message is closing," the Democratic congressional staffer said. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY –– NATSEC PROS WANT MARGON CONFIRMATION: Around 80 prominent people from the national security and human rights community have written to members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, urging them to approve the nomination of Sarah Margon as the next assistant secretary of State for democracy, human rights, and labor. In a letter obtained by our own NAHAL TOOSI, the signatories say they "fundamentally reject" allegations that Margon is not sufficiently pro-Israel. "She is a fair, balanced, and principled individual who will always find time to listen to alternative views and give them full consideration," states the letter, dated Monday. The signers included well-known members of the Jewish community, such as Rabbi DAVID SAPERSTEIN, a former U.S. ambassador for international religious freedom. LISA CURTIS, a senior National Security Council official in the Trump administration, is among the signatories, as are at least three people who previously held the position for which Margon is awaiting confirmation. THE NDAA IS HERE: The House and Senate finally agreed on the contours of the National Defense Authorization Act to fund the Defense Department. The details of the final legislation, hammered out in recent days by the House and Senate, were first obtained by POLITICO. The massive $768 billion package includes the $25 billion increase Congress deemed necessary over President Joe Biden's initial request, along with $27.8 billion for nuclear weapons activities that fall under the Department of Energy. It also does the following:
— Removes military commanders from decisions to prosecute a series of crimes, including rape, sexual assault, murder, manslaughter and kidnapping.
— Bans private money from being used to fund a National Guard deployment in another state, except for natural disaster emergencies.
— Authorizes $7.1 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative, meant to beef up U.S. posture in the region and deter China, a roughly $2 billion increase from Biden's request.
— Includes $300 million for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative to provide Kyiv with equipment and weapons. That's $50 million above what was requested by the White House.
— There's also $4 billion for the European Deterrence Initiative to help Europe warn off Russia. That's up from the $3.4 billion requested.
— Congress also wants to make retired generals or admirals wait a decade before being eligible to be Defense Secretary, up from the current seven years. It also increases the cooling off period for military officers to become civilian service secretaries from five to seven years. WHAT TO EXPECT WHEN YOU'RE EXPECTING A DEMOCRACY SUMMIT: Toosi also has the curtain raiser you need ahead of the Dec. 9-10 virtual "Summit for Democracy." The meeting will be "held as the very concept of democracy appears unusually vulnerable. This past year alone has seen a half-dozen coups, from Myanmar to Sudan. Even the United States' own democracy faces threats, from partisan fighting that is undermining law-making to insurrectionists attacking the Capitol over the lie that the 2020 presidential election was stolen," she wrote. "It is precisely because there are so many challenges out there that a summit like this one is so timely and important," said DEREK MITCHELL, a former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar who now leads the National Democratic Institute. "Convening global democratic leaders and others to reaffirm that democracy and democratic values remain the best answer to what ails us sends a message of solidarity, confidence, commitment and clarity." The core issue heading into the summit is why some governments were selected to participate and others not. "U.S. officials have resisted speaking about individual invitees, though some privately acknowledge the geopolitical factors in play," Toosi reported. "At the same time, they note that the event is called a 'Summit for Democracy,' not a 'Summit for Democracies' or a 'Summit of Democracies.' The goal is to make the case to the world that democracy is still the most ideal governance system while encouraging participants to stay on the democratic path." U.S.-CHINA TIES HURT BY 'ZERO COVID STRATEGY': China's "zero Covid strategy" has made it harder for U.S. companies to do business in that country, choking off a lucrative way for people in both nations to build trust with one another, our own PHELIM KINE reports. "[I]f China's economy is on the rise, external relations are at an all-time low. And unless Beijing significantly eases its entry and quarantine restrictions, the damage to bilateral business, diplomatic and cultural ties will worsen, warn U.S. businesses and organizations geared to U.S.-China engagement," he wrote. "A cost of this zero-tolerance policy that I don't think is fully understood … is [that] the lack of people-to-people exchanges — with Chinese coming here and Americans going there — is actually worsening the relationship [because] there's a dehumanization," STEPHEN A. ORLINS, president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, told Kine. Loosening the restrictions was supposed to be a deliverable out of last month's virtual chat between Biden and Chinese leader XI JINPING. So far there doesn't appear to be much movement on this front. 'CHAOTIC' AND 'DYSFUNCTIONAL' AFGHAN EVAC BY U.K.: A whistleblower in Britain alleges thousands of emails from Afghans seeking an evacuation from the country during the Taliban takeover went unread by officials, The Washington Post's KARLA ADAMS and ELLEN FRANCIS report. Per RAPHAEL MARSHALL , a desk officer on the U.K.'s "Afghan Special Cases" team, roughly 75,000 to 150,000 people (including family members of hopefuls) applied for evacuation, but "fewer than 5% of these people have received any assistance." "On the afternoon of Saturday 21 August, I was the only person monitoring and processing emails in the Afghan Special Cases inbox. No emails from after early Friday afternoon had been read at that point," Marshall wrote in written testimony. "The number of unread emails was already in the high thousands, I believe above 5000, and increasing constantly." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Extending the warfighter's reach with long-range precision fires.
In partnership with the U.S. Army, PrSM successfully set a distance record during a recent flight test, continuing our commitment to accelerate future missions with speed, agility, and efficiency. Learn More | | | IT'S TUESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | SAUDI WANTS MISSILE RESUPPLY: Saudi Arabia says it's running low on the weapons it uses to protect itself from attacks by Houthi rebels — and wants the U.S. to provide the assistance. "While U.S. officials appeared poised to formally approve the Saudi request, the situation has officials in Riyadh concerned that without a sufficient stock of Patriot interceptors, the sustained attacks could result in significant loss of life or damage to critical oil infrastructure," The Wall Street Journal's GORDON LUBOLD reported. "The number of attacks against the kingdom has grown significantly, according to a Saudi government official. Drones struck Saudi territory 29 times last month and 25 times in October; the country was struck by 11 ballistic missile attacks last month and 10 in October. That is up significantly from February 2020, when Saudi Arabia was attacked six times, five by ballistic missiles and once by a drone, according to the official." Selling more weapons to Saudi Arabia is a controversial issue on Capitol Hill, as a bipartisan Senate effort aims to force a vote of disapproval on an authorized sale of munitions to Riyadh. THOUSANDS OF AFGHANS FLEE PER DAY: The Associated Press' LEE KEATH and MSTYSLAV CHERNOV report on the perpetually horrid conditions forcing Afghans to leave their homes in search of a better life. "Afghans are streaming across the border into Iran in accelerating numbers, driven by desperation. Since the Taliban takeover in mid-August, Afghanistan's economic collapse has accelerated, robbing millions of work and leaving them unable to feed their families. In the past three months, more than 300,000 people have crossed illegally into Iran, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council, and more are coming at the rate of 4,000 to 5,000 a day," they wrote. "The European Union is now bracing for a potential swell in Afghans trying to reach its shores at a time when EU nations are determined to lock down against migrants in general." That last part is troubling, experts note, as scenes of Afghans trying to get into Europe could echo the chaos surrounding the EU's debate over whether to let in Syrians fleeing their civil war. One need look no further than the tensions arising from Belarus' attempt to send refugees into Poland to ponder just how nasty the politics could get as thousands of Afghans in need rightfully aim to start their life anew in Europe. | | | TOP U.S. OFFICIALS SOJOURN IN SILICON VALLEY: A cadre of senior administration officials — among them Homeland Security Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS, Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director JEN EASTERLY and National Cyber Director CHRIS INGLIS — met in Silicon Valley on Monday with executives from 13 key technology and cybersecurity companies, including Google, networking vendor Juniper Networks and security firm Mandiant. According to our own ERIC GELLER — who reported exclusively on the public-private sector session — the group's goal "was to deepen relationships between government and industry that security professionals see as vital for protecting the nation's critical infrastructure." The meeting may also be seen as "part of a charm offensive aimed at growing the ranks of the government's industry allies and improving how efficiently they work together." "This is about taking a spirit of partnership and moving into actual operational collaboration," Mayorkas told Geller in an interview. The objective, he said, is "to increase the cyber hygiene not only of the government" but also companies with a wide range of expertise and resources. An anonymous DHS official added that the meeting was meant to help "get to the point where government and the private sector are working day in and day out on understanding, analyzing, and then mitigating the most urgent threats that we're seeing." | | | DOD TO GET OUTSIDE REVIEW OF LAND-BASED ICBMS: Our own BRYAN BENDER reports (for Pros!) on the Pentagon commissioning an outside assessment of land-based nuclear missiles, per a letter from DoD No. 3 COLIN KAHL to Sen. ED MARKEY (D-Mass.) last month. The "external study" of the intercontinental ballistic missile force is part of an effort "to make sure we surface the full range of viewpoints across the political spectrum, tension points, and key considerations, so that the Department can benefit from those insights during the NPR process," Kahl wrote, per Bender. "The letter, which was shared with POLITICO, did not divulge who is carrying out the ICBM study or what its parameters are. It comes as the Pentagon-led reassessment of nuclear policy is entering its final phase before being presented to President Joe Biden for review early next year," Bender reported. | | | |   | | | | | | WOMEN IN DRAFT DROPPED FROM NDAA: Our own CONNOR O'BRIEN scooped Monday evening that the proposal to add women to the U.S. military draft won't feature in the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act. "Leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees left the provision out of the final version of the National Defense Authorization Act, despite the fact that both chambers' bills would have expanded the Selective Service System beyond men," he wrote, citing two people familiar with the negotiations. "The move is a victory for conservatives who fought to strip the provision. Earlier attempts to kill the proposal came up short because lawmakers from both parties supported including women in the draft." | | | RUBIO OUTLINES MORE 'RESPONSIBLE' PLAN FOR HAITI: In an op-ed for the Miami Herald, Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) detailed his efforts to have the U.S. better assist Haiti through its many crises. "The Haiti Development, Accountability, and Institutional Transparency Initiative Act … requires the U.S. Department of State to prioritize the protection of human rights and anti-corruption efforts in Haiti by fostering strong relationships with independent civil-society groups and the private sector. It will also require the United States to identify and hold accountable people involved in human-rights violations and significant acts of corruption in Haiti," he wrote. "[T]oo often during a crisis, money is funneled into a country without much thought as to who will benefit. It is not fair to American taxpayers or the Haitian people to continue repeating the mistakes of the past." He urged his colleagues in the Biden administration and Senate colleagues, among others, to help him provide the help he feels Haiti needs. | | | — DAVID WERTIME has been selected as a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs fellow for the 2022-2023 period, which involves one year in government. He currently is executive director of Protocol | China. | | | — TIMOTHY MCLAUGHLIN, The Atlantic: "The Political Obituary of Aung San Suu Kyi" — RENEE MONTAGNE, NPR: " My dad witnessed the horror of Pearl Harbor firsthand. But his letters never let on" — JIM CLYBURN and SETH MOULTON, Time: "What America Owes Black Veterans of World War II" | | A message from Lockheed Martin: AGM-158 and F-35: 21st Century Platforms for 21st Century Warfighting.
Combined with unmatched capabilities of the F-35, JASSM and LRASM significantly increase the ability to deter near peer adversaries, providing warfighters flexible, responsive options to increasingly complex, heavily defended target sets. Learn More | | | | | | — The Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, 8:15 a.m.: "Navigating a Turbulent Future? What to Expect in 2022 — with MARIANO-FLORENTINO 'TINO' CUÉLLAR, MARWAN MUASHER, MAHA YAHYA, JIHAD AZOUR, ROSA BALFOUR and more" — Georgetown University's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, 8:30 a.m.: "Achieving Durable Solutions to Displacement in Iraq: Challenges, Opportunities, and Possible Remedies — with SALMA AL-SHAMI, ROCHELLE DAVIS, ELIZABETH FERRIS, MUHAMMED ISMA'IL and ADAM LICHTENHELD" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: "The Project on Nuclear Issues 2021 Hybrid Winter Conference — with APRIL ARNOLD, REBECCA DAVIS GIBBONS, HALLEY POSNER, BETH SANNER, DAN ZHUKOV and more" — The Brookings Institution, 10 a.m.: "Is the NATO-EU Divide an Obstacle to a European Foreign Policy? — with BENJAMIN HADDAD, GIOVANNA DE MAIO, KRISTI RAIK, RACHEL RIZZO and THOMAS WRIGHT" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 10 a.m.: " Subcommittee Hearing: Biosecurity for the Future: Strengthening Deterrence and Detection — with AMESH ADALJA, KEVIN ESVELT, ANDY WEBER and JAIME YASSIF" — Senate Armed Services Committee, 10 a.m.: "Nomination Hearing — with CHRISTOPHER GRADY" — The Hudson Institute, 12 p.m.: "Saudi Arabia and the New Middle East — with MOHAMMED KHALID ALYAHYA, MICHAEL DORAN and BERNARD HAYKEL" — The National Security Institute, 12 p.m.: "The National Security Implications of Antitrust: The Homefront — with ASHEESH AGARWAL, OREN CASS, EVELYN FARKAS and JENNIFER HUDDLESTON" — Senate Intelligence Committee, 2 p.m.: " Closed Briefing: Intelligence Matters" — House Foreign Affairs Committee, 2:30 p.m.: "Roundtable: Bolstering Democracy in the Age of Rising Authoritarianism — with ANNE APPLEBAUM and TIMOTHY SNYDER" — Senate Foreign Relations Committee, 2:30 p.m.: "Full Committee Hearing: The Future of U.S. Policy on Taiwan — with DANIEL KRITENBRINK and ELY RATNER" — Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee, 3 p.m.: "Nomination Hearing — with KURT D. DELBENE" — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 4 p.m.: "Nuclear Weapons: The Growing Risk — with ERNEST MONIZ, SAM NUNN and BOB SCHIEFFER" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, John Yearwood, whose steely determination is never in question. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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