| | | | | |  | | By Paul McLeary, Alexander Ward and Quint Forgey | Presented by Lockheed Martin | | 
In this Feb. 9, 2021, file photo provided by the Department of Defense, Hickam 15th Medical Group hosts the first Covid-19 mass vaccination on Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam. | U.S. Air Force Tech. Sgt. Anthony Nelson Jr./Department of Defense via AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Alex | Email Quint PROGRAMMING NOTE: National Security Daily won't publish from Mon., Dec. 20 to Fri., Dec. 31. We'll be back on our normal schedule on Mon., Jan. 3. Happy holidays! Thousands of soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines should start hearing from their commanders in the coming days and weeks, as the services kick off the process of removing thousands of troops who have refused to get vaccinated against Covid-19, our own PAUL MCLEARY reports. The Air Force started things off earlier this week, dismissing 27 airmen, but the numbers to come are something. The Navy has over 5,700 sailors unvaxxed, the Marines have somewhere around 9,000, and the Air Force is looking at about another 5,700 who have refused or requested a religious exemption. As for the Army, things are even more complicated: The service says 97 percent of its 485,000 troops have had at least one shot, meaning a whopping 14,000 are refusing or haven't started to get their jabs yet. Today was the deadline for soldiers to get the dose, and the Army is expected to outline its plans for separations later today. How many of those troops actually get the boot remains to be seen, but in some respects the separations might actually help out services looking to shrink a bit. In the 2022 NDAA passed by the Senate today and expected to be signed by President JOE BIDEN in the coming days, the Army will shed 900 soldiers, the Marine Corps 2,700, the Navy will drop 900 sailors and the Air Force would see a decrease of about 4,200 personnel. The NDAA includes a provision banning the DoD from dishonorably discharging servicemembers for refusing the shot, but it doesn't appear that was going to be a problem anyway. The Navy came right out and said that those who leave won't get slapped with a dishonorable discharge, and Pentagon spokesperson JOHN KIRBY suggested Wednesday that's not in the cards. "We're talking about administrative discharges that don't result in some sort of dishonorable discharge or some punitive problem," he said. But that hasn't stopped conservative politicians from jumping on the soapbox and claiming that Biden's vaccine dismissals will weaken America's ability to wage war. "It's shameful that President Biden wants to punish members of our military simply because they are uncomfortable taking a vaccine," Sen. RICK SCOTT (R-Fla.) said. Sen. JIM INHOFE (R-Okla.) — the top Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee — reiterated his call for the Pentagon to "suspend the vaccine mandate until the Department of Defense can answer basic questions about the impact the mandate will have on the total force." Speaking of problems, the Pentagon has given the National Guard until June 2022 to get their shots, buying some time for a force that is slow in getting around to it. About 90 percent of the active-duty force is fully vaccinated, which sounds great. But when you add the Guard and Reserve in, that total nosedives to 75 percent, a major headache the DoD will have to deal with this spring when that deadline starts to loom on the horizon. | | | | BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now. | | | | | | | | NDAA SENT TO BIDEN: The Senate passed the $768 billion National Defense Authorization Act Wednesday by a 88-11 margin, sending the rebuke of Biden's initial Pentagon request back to him. "Biden is expected to sign the measure, despite Congress' endorsement of a $25 billion increase to defense spending the administration didn't request," our own CONNOR O'BRIEN reports. "With the upper chamber failing to pass its own version of the bill this month, leaders of the House and Senate Armed Services committees scrambled to forge a compromise to salvage the legislation and pass it before the end of the year. Those bipartisan talks produced several surprises, including stripping provisions that would have required women to register for a military draft." "The bill's budget boost includes more weapons purchases, increased research and development efforts and larger programs aimed at countering China and Russia. The bill includes $7.2 billion for the Pacific Deterrence Initiative," he continued. The NDAA doesn't actually allocate money — it just authorizes spending. Heads turn to the House and Senate Appropriations committees for that part. CHINA BACKS RUSSIA'S CALL FOR U.S. SECURITY GUARANTEE: After a friendly 90-minute call between Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and Chinese leader XI JINPING, Moscow says that Beijing backs its demand for security guarantees from the U.S. "Russian presidential aide YURI USHAKOV said Putin spelled out his concerns about a NATO threat to Russia and that Xi supported his demand for written security guarantees," The Washington Post's ROBYN DIXON and LILY KUO report. "Russia's Foreign Ministry last week published its demands, including that NATO would not expand eastward and would not station weapons in Ukraine that could threaten Russia. NATO has repeatedly ruled out a Russian veto over which countries can join the alliance." During the virtual summit, Putin lauded the "deep historical traditions of friendship and mutual understanding between the Russian and Chinese people." That adds a little extra weight to Russia's request, even if the U.S. and its Western partners currently have no intentions of granting it. But more importantly the statement of support is another indicator of Moscow and Beijing working more warmly with one another, even if they're not exactly allies. BLINKEN TRIP ENDS EARLY AMID COVID CONCERNS: Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN is cutting short his weeklong overseas trip and returning to Washington, D.C., due to reasons related to Covid-19, Quint reports. In a call with Thai Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister DON PRAMUDWINAI, Blinken "expressed his deep regret" that he would not be traveling on to Bangkok from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, State Department spokesperson NED PRICE said in a statement. "[Blinken] explained that, in order to mitigate the risk of the spread of COVID-19 and to prioritize the health and safety of the U.S. traveling party and those they would otherwise come into contact with, the Secretary would be returning to Washington, D.C. out of an abundance of caution," Price said. The State Department did not immediately respond to a request for additional information regarding the change in Blinken's travel plans. Blinken departed on his trip abroad last Thursday and has visited the United Kingdom, Indonesia and Malaysia since then. He was scheduled to travel to Thailand and Hawaii and to conclude his official travel on Friday. QUESTIONS ABOUT ADMIN'S HAVANA SYNDROME PLAN: It's unclear how the Biden administration plans to compensate sufferers of the so-called Havana Syndrome — or who would even be eligible in the first place. "We're trying to figure this out on the fly," a senior administration official told The Washington Post's MISSY RYAN and SHANE HARRIS. One problem is that many of the U.S. officials who've reported related symptoms "can be attributed to some particular illness or condition" or don't meet the criteria, a personal familiar also told them. Another is that there's no definitive test to determine whether or not a brain injury stems from an "anomalous health incident." Beyond that, there are challenges providing State Department staffers with adequate treatment at specialized facilities and figuring out ways to pay them for time lost and medical care. "Implementation is really difficult because of attribution, and who has been a victim and who hasn't," a congressional aide told the Post. "I don't envy the administration in this regard." EU HEALTH AGENCY: OMICRON LIKELY TO ACCELERATE DEATH TOLL: The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control is warning Europeans that the death toll is likely to accelerate due to the Omicron variant. "We assess the probability of further spread of the Omicron [variant] in the EU/European economic area as very high, and it is considered very likely to cause additional hospitalisations and fatalities, further to those already expected from previous forecasts that consider only the Delta [variant]," said ECDC Director ANDREA AMMON . "In the current situation, vaccination alone will not allow us to prevent the impact of the Omicron [variant], because there will be no time to address the vaccination gaps that still exist." Ammon added that European governments should consider "reduced inter-household mixing" — surely a massive blow to many families' holiday plans. Early studies suggest Omicron leads to a milder form of disease , but it still has high rates of transmissibility, making it very dangerous to those with fewer protections. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Essential to allied airpower.
The growing community of F-35 nations strengthen our national defense and deter our enemies. The F-35 is diplomacy in action, fueling shared global deterrence through interoperability and collaboration. Learn More | | | IT'S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily. This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at award@politico.com and qforgey@politico.com, and follow us on Twitter at @alexbward and @QuintForgey. While you're at it, follow the rest of POLITICO's national security team: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmccleary, @leehudson, and @AndrewDesiderio. | | | ETHIOPIA RECAPTURES TOWNS ON ROAD TO TIGRAY: The pendulum seems to have swung back in favor of the Ethiopian military as it's recapturing territory rebel forces took earlier this year. Troops loyal to Prime Minister ABIY AHMED are "recapturing towns including Dessie and Kombolcha, strongholds on the road to Tigray, as well as Gashena and Lalibela, famous for its churches carved into rocky hillsides," The Economist reported. "Abiy's forces also pushed the Tigrayans out of most of Afar, an eastern region that contains critical road and rail links between Addis Ababa and the port in neighbouring Djibouti. In an echo of his earlier declaration, the prime minister has told several African leaders that the war is all but over." But Abiy might be boasting too early, since the Tigray People's Liberation Front didn't use all its forces in defense of those locations. "Having conserved its forces, the TPLF may be able to inflict bloody damage on Ethiopian troops if they advance through the narrow valleys and mountain passes on the road to Mekelle. And it still seems capable of rapid ripostes such as the recapture of Gashena and Lalibela," the Economist wrote. NORTH KOREANS EXECUTED FOR WATCHING K-POP: At least seven people were executed over the last decade in North Korea for watching or distributing K-Pop videos, The New York Times' CHOE SANG-HUN reports. "Citizens were mobilized to watch the grisly scenes, where officials called the condemned social evil before they each were put to death by a total of nine shots fired by three soldiers," Choe reported, citing work by the Seoul-based Transitional Justice Working Group, a human rights organization. North Korean leader KIM JONG UN has long called K-Pop a "vicious cancer " and reviles most forms of South Korean entertainment. He's also cracked down on South Korean slang and hairstyles that permeated into his country. Experts say it's all part of Kim's effort to curb the global influence of South Korean culture — often in brutal fashion. "Under a law adopted last December, those who distribute South Korean entertainment can face the death penalty," Choe wrote.
| | | DEMS DEMAND SANCTIONS ON SURVEILLANCE FIRMS: A group of congressional Democrats sent a letter to the Treasury Department and the State Department late Tuesday, asking the agencies to impose Global Magnitsky sanctions on the Israeli spyware firm NSO Group, the United Arab Emirates cybersecurity company DarkMatter, and European online bulk surveillance companies Nexa Technologies and Trovicor, per Reuters' JOSEPH MENN and JOEL SCHECTMAN. Senate Finance Committee Chair RON WYDEN (D-Ore.), House Intelligence Committee Chair ADAM SCHIFF (D-Calif.) and 16 other lawmakers wrote in their letter that the three companies have facilitated the "disappearance, torture and murder of human rights activists and journalists." "To meaningfully punish them and send a clear signal to the surveillance technology industry, the U.S. government should deploy financial sanctions," the letter's signers argued. Their missive comes after Reuters reported earlier this month that the iPhones of at least nine State Department employees were hacked using spyware developed by NSO Group. | | | |   | | | | | | U.S. TO BLACKLIST 8 CHINESE FIRMS: DJI, the world's largest dronemaker, and seven other Chinese companies will be put on an American investment blacklist for their alleged roles in the surveillance of Uyghur Muslims, the Financial Times' DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO and WILLIAM LANGLEY report. "The other Chinese companies that will be blacklisted on Thursday include Megvii … and Dawning Information Industry, a supercomputer manufacturer that operates cloud computing services in Xinjiang. Also to be added are CloudWalk Technology, a facial recognition software company, Xiamen Meiya Pico, a cyber security group that works with law enforcement, Yitu Technology, an artificial intelligence company, Leon Technology, a cloud computing company, and NetPosa Technologies, a producer of cloud-based surveillance systems," they reported. The designation blocks American investors from acquiring financial stakes in any of these or the 60 other Chinese groups on the list. The companies were already on the "entity list" which stops U.S. firms from exporting materials to them without a government license. Reached by NatSec Daily, a spokesperson for DJI said the company had not yet been informed that it would be put on the investment sanction list.
| | | DEMS PUSHING GOP FOR NOMINEES: Democratic leaders in Congress are pushing Republicans to end their blocks on Biden's national security nominees, our own ANDREW DESIDERIO reports. "With 54 ambassador nominees lagging on the Senate floor and only a handful of legislative days remaining before the new year, Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER is looking to strike a deal that would allow the upper chamber to confirm many of them this month," he wrote. "According to a senior congressional aide, the double-digit list of holds [Sen. TED] CRUZ has offered to lift includes nominees for senior positions in the Treasury Department, State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development." Even with a (razor-thin) Democratic majority in the Senate, Biden has suffered historically low confirmation rates for his nominees thanks in part to holds initiated by Sen. JOSH HAWLEY (R-Mo.) and Cruz. That's complicated America's response to crises around the globe, U.S. officials and analysts tell us. But that's not the only reason Democrats want to end the blockade now: "Under the Senate's rules, nominations would have to return to their committees of jurisdiction in the new year, which could cause even further delays," Desiderio notes.
| | | ESTONIAN PM: DON'T FALL INTO PUTIN'S TRAP: Estonian Prime Minister KAJA KALLAS has a warning for her Western counterparts: Don't let Putin dictate American and European policy toward the continent's east. The Russian leader "is trying to present himself as a solution to this problem that he has created himself. And I think we shouldn't fall into that trap," she told our own JACOPO BARIGAZZI in a phone interview. "I don't think that Russia has any right to say anything about who has the right and who doesn't have the right to join [the] European Union or NATO." Putin wants a guarantee that Georgia and Ukraine will never join NATO, even though the alliance in 2008 opened the door to that possibility. This issue, and a stance toward Russia in particular, will surely come up during two big European meetings this week: the sixth Eastern Partnership Summit on Wednesday and a European Council gathering Thursday. "It is very important that, first of all, we give the signal at very high level that any military pressure from outside to make NATO or Ukraine or the EU change its decisions or its process of making decisions is not acceptable," Kallas said. "What we also should show [is] … that Ukraine has friends and allies and we are there with them. So if somebody would think of aggression towards Ukraine, you also understand that there are allies and friends behind Ukraine. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Essential to allied airpower.
With the commitment of 14 nations and counting, the U.S. and its allies are powering partnerships, security, and economic growth through the F-35 program. Learn More | | | | | | — NICK ANDERSEN is now COO of Invictus International Consulting. He most recently was chief information security officer — public sector at Lumen Technologies and is a Trump Energy Department and White House alum. — ADAM GOLODNER has joined WestExec Advisors as a senior adviser. He previously served as chief of staff of the Justice Department's Antitrust Division, senior counsel of the Global Cyber Practice at Arnold & Porter, and director of global security and technology policy at Cisco. — MORSE HYUN-MYUNG TAN has been named the new dean of Liberty University School of Law. He most recently served as ambassador at large for the State Department's Office of Global Criminal Justice. — WELLS GRIFFITH has joined FTI Consulting's Strategic Communications segment as senior director. He previously served as the SAP and senior director for international energy and environment at the White House on the NSC and NEC, and in other leadership roles at the Energy Department and the Development Finance Corporation. — DUSTIN WALKER is joining the American Enterprise Institute as a nonresident fellow covering defense, the Indo-Pacific and Europe. — The president has nominated Marine Corps Reserve Brig. Gen. KARL PIERSON for appointment to the rank of major general, Marine Corps Reserve Col. VALERIE JACKSON for appointment to the rank of brigadier general, and Marine Corps Reserve Col. MARK CUNNINGHAM for appointment to the rank of brigadier general. | | | — SAMYA KULLAB, The Associated Press: "Lack of jobs, crisis drive young Iraqi Kurds to migrate" — DECLAN WALSH, The New York Times: " The Nobel Peace Prize That Paved the Way for War" — MARGHERITA STANCATI, The Wall Street Journal: "After Taliban Return, Afghan Women Face Old Pressures From Fathers, Brothers"
| | | — The president awards the Medal of Honor to Army Sergeant First Class ALWYN CASHE, Army Sergeant First Class CHRISTOPHER CELIZ and Army Master Sergeant EARL PLUMLEE for conspicuous gallantry. — The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: "The Okinawa Issue: Twenty Five Years After the Futenma Agreement — with WILLIAM BROOKS, KENT CALDER, DAVID SHEAR and YASUHIRO 'DENNY' TAMAKI" — Washington Post Live, 9:30 a.m.: " The Future of Democracy — with ISOBEL COLEMAN, CHRIS KREBS, ELISE LABOTT, MARK MALLOCH-BROWN and MICHAEL MCFAUL" — The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 10 a.m.: "Is There a Future for Nuclear Arms Control? — with JAMES M. ACTON, ANYA FINK and THOMAS MACDONALD" — The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, 10 a.m.: "Defending Ukraine, Deterring Putin — with ANDREW BOWEN, ROBERT LEE, KATSIARYNA SHMATSINA and MARYNA VOROTNYUK" — The American Institute for Contemporary German Studies, 11 a.m.: "Fresh Start or False Dawn?: Prospects for U.S.-German Relations in the Post-Merkel Era — with KAI OPPERMANN" — The Middle East Institute, 11 a.m.: "75th Anniversary Celebration and Awards Ceremony — with ANWAR GARGASH, FAWZIA KOOFI, YAEL LEMPERT, MAY NASRALLAH and VIVIAN SALAMA" — The American Security Project, 12 p.m.: " What's Next for Afghanistan — with DOUGLAS LUTE and CARTER MALKASIAN" — The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: "Debate: Should the U.S. Seek to Contain China? — with DAVID KANG, JOHN MEARSHEIMER and KELLEY BEAUCAR VLAHOS" — The Middle East Institute, 1 p.m.: "A More Balanced and Long-Term Approach to U.S. Policy in the Middle East — with GERALD FEIERSTEIN, BRIAN KATULIS, ANNE PATTERSON, MARA RUDMAN and PAUL SALEM" — The German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2:30 p.m.: "Confronting the Ransomware Threat: Transatlantic Opportunities and Challenges — with YLVA JOHANSSON, KAREN KORNBLUH and ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS" — The Center for Security and Emerging Technology, 4 p.m.: "Deconstructing China's Vision for the Future of Warfare — with RYAN FEDASIUK and JOHN 'JACK' SHANAHAN" — Physicians for Social Responsibility, 6:30 p.m.: " Movement Strategies for Community-Based Safety: A Roundtable on the Intersection Between Social Justice and Nuclear Weapons Abolition — with CHRIS ABOUKHALED, MARENA BLANCHARD, TRISTAN GUYETTE and ARI NASON" | | | | DON'T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO's new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE. | | | | | Have a natsec-centric event coming up? Transitioning to a new defense-adjacent or foreign policy-focused gig? Shoot us an email at award@politico.com or qforgey@politico.com to be featured in the next edition of the newsletter. And thanks to our editor, Ben Pauker, who constantly touts the "deep historical traditions of friendship" between us. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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