Welcome to a special edition of China Watcher focusing on what's next after Monday's virtual meeting between leaders of the U.S. and China. We begin with takeaways from a key member of the White House team at the meeting. And fear not — you'll receive the regularly scheduled China Watcher on Thursday. Enjoy,
Phelim Expectations were low for President JOE BIDEN and Chinese leader XI JINPING's virtual meeting Monday night. The administration said to expect no deliverables, but we've already seen evidence of a few agreements, from reducing global tensions linked to Iran and North Korea to establishing "strategic stability" on U.S.-China nuclear weapons capacity, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said Tuesday. The meeting also fostered a bilateral deal to ease restrictions on journalist visas. Chinese state media trumpeted the agreement as "good news" from the Biden-Xi meeting. The State Department didn't respond to a POLITICO request for comment about the deal. The two sides have also agreed to hold talks on easing concerns about the rapid growth in China's nuclear arsenal and the recent development of a hypersonic missile system. Sullivan, speaking at a Brookings Institution event, hinted that other items on the two leaders' task list included cooperation on counter-narcotics. A Washington, D.C.,-based diplomatic source told China Watcher that bilateral joint working groups were discussing a possible Chinese government ban on export of the deadly synthetic opioid fentanyl, linked to around 80 percent of the 70,000 opioid overdose deaths in the U.S. in 2020. The White House and the National Security Council did not respond to queries about the possible ban. The virtual meeting also produced discussions on how the U.S. and China can "align perspectives" on reining in Iran's nuclear program, starting with a meeting at the end of November of the parties to the 2015 JCPOA nuclear accord, Sullivan said. China Watcher canvassed experts on key issues of the U.S.-China relationship for their assessment of the meeting and possible next steps. Their views were edited for length and clarity. DIPLOMACY
Tong Zhao
Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace at the Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing Both leaders reaffirmed willingness to pursue a more stable bilateral relationship. However, U.S. efforts to uphold its basic values such as human rights and democracy are viewed by China as posing the gravest threat to Beijing's core interests such as regime security. There was no announcement of a nuclear dialogue to defuse the emerging arms race. Xi [said] that China has patience over the Taiwan issue to reassure the United States. But the reassurance value may be undercut by his subsequent warning that China will take "resolute measures" if compelled to. Xi's statement that "[a]ggression or hegemony is not in the blood of the Chinese nation" puts the responsibility to reduce tensions and improve bilateral relations solely on the U.S. The two countries are still a million miles apart about what they each should do to achieve practical cooperation. TAIWAN
Shirley Martey Hargis
Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Taiwan NextGen Foundation President Biden underscored that the U.S. firmly opposes "unilateral efforts to change the status quo" in the Taiwan Strait [and] reasserted America's commitment to the Taiwan Relations Act, the Six Assurances and the three Joint Communiques. Xinhua's tone is blunt compared to American media reports … quoting [Xi] stating the U.S. is trying to control China by "weaponizing" Taiwan. I think that China will not change its mind on Taiwan. The gray zone warfare will continue. China will not accept that America relies on Taiwan as a vital partner ... [including] to produce semiconductors to address the chip shortage. No matter what, Taiwan should focus most of its efforts defining itself beyond the backdrop of U.S.-China relations. HUMAN RIGHTS
Sophie Richardson
China Director, Human Rights Watch I think the administration was trying too hard to telegraph up front that nobody should expect any agreements between the two sides about much of anything. I don't see why that needed to exclude agreements within the Biden administration itself about how to actually respond to human rights crimes. The relative merits of [U.S. policymakers] continuing to talk about the Chinese government committing crimes against humanity targeting Uyghurs if they're not actually going to do anything about that cheapens that language and profoundly disappoints the people who are affected by those kinds of crimes. I don't see any reason why President Biden couldn't have said to Xi Jinping: "The crimes against humanity your government is committing, oblige me to, among other things, task the State Department to pursue with like-minded governments pathways to investigations and accountability." TRADE
Wendy Cutler
Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute Trade was not a major agenda item for the Biden/Xi meeting. The respective readouts suggest both sides were more intent on making their points than finding common ground for moving forward. Biden stressed the importance of Chinese adherence to the terms of the Phase One agreement, while indicating that he will do what is needed to protect U.S. workers and industries from unfair Chinese trade practices. Xi, meanwhile, complained about the U.S. politicizing trade by imposing restrictions against Chinese companies and imports under the guise of national security. To the dismay of the U.S. business community, the readouts suggest that neither leader uttered the word "tariffs." This suggests that these taxes are here to stay for the foreseeable future. It's notable that the one concrete deliverable coming out of the meeting falls in the trade/investment lane — that is Xi's offer to facilitate U.S. business travel in the Covid world. This is not totally altruistic given that Beijing cannot afford to have U.S. companies pack up and leave. MILITARY
Scott Harold
Senior Political Scientist, RAND Corporation Let's not set the bar terribly high for discussion of military affairs in this kind of an engagement, especially a virtual one, at a time when the Chinese right now are trying to continue a [military] pressure campaign on the U.S. and the U.S. has not really done much to budge. The Chinese view of the way the security environment is unfolding is that they're going to encounter a lot of bumps on the road to the return to great power status and "national rejuvenation" and the accomplishment of the "China dream." But Chinese leaders and advisers believe the U.S. is a weakened power that is declining. And that as the United States' relative capabilities and overmatch to China continue to degrade and as China catches up, then we're going to encounter a period of greater instability. You hear this in the Chinese discussions about the U.S. trying to use Taiwan to contain China. CLIMATE
Alex Wang
Co-director of UCLA's Emmett Institute on Climate Change & the Environment President Biden noted the need to "work together where interests intersect, especially on … climate change." President Xi emphasized that "climate change can well become a new highlight of cooperation." [But] the Biden-Xi meeting raised a few concerns. China's leaders have only committed to peaking emissions by 2030, even as the world moves toward a goal to nearly halve emissions by 2030. Xi said China "only commits to what it can deliver, and never makes a promise it cannot keep." The unfortunate implication is also that China will not accelerate its 2030 target. And as the U.S. moves on climate, it will be essential to shift away from use and export of natural gas. The two leaders pledged to work together to "protect global energy security," including cooperation on "new energy" (good), but also "natural gas" (not so good). Locking in natural gas in this decade would be a major setback for global climate action. Thanks for tuning into this special edition of China Watcher. We'll see you again Thursday for more scoops and insight. Thanks to: Ben Pauker, Luiza Ch. Savage, Matt Kaminski and editor John Yearwood. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Would you like to contribute to China Watcher or comment on this week's items? Email us at chinawatcher@politico.com. | 
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