Thursday, October 7, 2021

Why McConnell backed down

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POLITICO Playbook

By Ryan Lizza, Eugene Daniels, Rachael Bade and Tara Palmeri

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DRIVING THE DAY

HUNTER BIDEN showcased his art to about 200 people at Milk Studios in Hollywood, Calif., The Daily Mail's Josh Boswell reports. Guests included "World Champion boxer SUGAR RAY LEONARD … Los Angeles Mayor ERIC GARCETTI " — President JOE BIDEN's pick to be ambassador to India — "and the artist behind BARACK OBAMA'S iconic Hope poster." Prices ranged between $75k and a half-million dollars. The White House has said that Hunter won't know who the buyers of his art are — even though he's talking with potential buyers face-to-face.

BEHIND THE BACKDOWN — DONALD TRUMP and Sen. ELIZABETH WARREN (D-Mass.) actually agree on something: Senate Minority Leader MITCH MCCONNELL backed down Wednesday when he offered Democrats an extension of the debt ceiling until December. (As of early this morning, the two sides hadn't finalized the deal.)

"McConnell caved," said Warren.

"Looks like Mitch McConnell is folding to the Democrats, again," said Trump.

Much of the MSM coverage this morning endorses Warren and Trump's McConnell-blinked-first narrative.

"With the threat of a default as little as 12 days off," write NYT's Jonathan Weisman and Emily Cochrane, McConnell "made a tactical retreat and announced that Republicans would allow Democrats to vote on a short-term extension."

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WAS IT THE FILIBUSTER? McConnell backed down after Democratic threats of nuking the filibuster for the debt ceiling started to become more real. At their Tuesday lunch, Democratic senators discussed how McConnell's blockade on the debt ceiling was boosting the case of filibuster reformers. Later that day, Biden, generally a skeptic of filibuster reform, said such a change for the debt ceiling was now a "real possibility."

McConnell took notice. Our friend Manu Raju at CNN reported, "McConnell told his colleagues he's concerned about pressure on [JOE] MANCHIN and [KYRSTEN] SINEMA to gut [the] filibuster in order to raise [the] debt ceiling, I'm told. He pointed to this as reason why he is floating short-term increase in order to ease pressure on and push Democrats to use reconciliation."

McConnell himself alluded to how filibuster reform was the key issue at play. "It's not clear whether the Democratic leaders have wasted two-and-a-half months because they simply cannot govern, or whether they are intentionally playing Russian roulette with the economy to try to bully their own members into going back on their word and wrecking the Senate," he said on the Senate floor.

The minority leader seemed skittish enough about where filibuster reform fever was headed in the Democratic caucus that he vetted his compromise plan with Manchin and Sinema, report Burgess Everett, Marianne LeVine and Anthony Adragna.

Democratic supporters of filibuster reform have taken note of how the issue seems to have moved McConnell. "The filibuster is McConnell's instrument of obstruction," one Democratic senator told Playbook. "He wants to protect that at all costs. He was at real risk of overplaying his hand as he faced the growing prospect that we would have 51 votes to waive it for the purpose of dealing with debt. He wanted to avoid creating that precedent. Still, would have been better for us to just do it."

This is the second time this year that the politics of filibuster preservation enticed McConnell to play dealmaker rather than obstructionist. The minority leader backed BIF partly because he wanted to show anti-filibuster Democrats that bipartisanship was still possible. In both episodes McConnell relied on an alliance — sometimes tacit, sometimes explicit — with Manchin and Sinema against the anti-filibuster forces.

The other leading explanation for McConnell's last-minute offer is that some of his GOP colleagues were skittish about mounting another filibuster against debt ceiling legislation and McConnell needed a way to save face.

More: WSJWaPoPOLITICO

DEMS CLAIM THE DEAL HELPS SAVE BBB: The view from the White House and many Senate Democrats is that the McConnell deal frees up the rest of October and November to focus on their reconciliation package.

It "clears the deck for us to finish BIF and BBB without overhang," said a senior White House official. "I mean the narrative 10 days ago was that Biden had four must do's. If two get done that leaves two. The idea that all four would happen in one week was silly."

A second Democratic senator argued that the deal to defer the debt limit thwarts McConnell's alleged plan to use the debt limit fight to scuttle the Biden agenda: "This doesn't allow McConnell to blow up BBB."

Good Thursday morning, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line and tell us why you think McConnell blinked: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri.

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BIDEN'S THURSDAY:

— 9:30 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.

— Noon: Biden will depart the White House en route to Chicago, where he is scheduled to arrive at 2 p.m. EDT.

— 3:10 p.m.: Biden will visit a Clayco construction site in Elk Grove Village, Ill.

— 3:45 p.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on Covid-19 vaccines in Elk Grove Village.

— 5:15 p.m.: Biden will depart Chicago to return to the White House, where he is scheduled to arrive at 7:20 p.m.

Deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle aboard Air Force One on the way to Chicago.

VP KAMALA HARRIS' THURSDAY: The VP and Labor Secretary MARTY WALSH will hold the second meeting of the White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment at 11 a.m.

THE SENATE is in.

THE HOUSE is out. Agriculture Secretary TOM VILSACK will testify before the Agriculture Committee at noon. DANIEL FOOTE, who recently quit as special envoy to Haiti, will testify before the Foreign Affairs Committee at 2 p.m.

— The Oversight Committee will hold a hearing on Arizona's election "audit" and threats to democracy at 10 a.m. JACK SELLERS and BILL GATES of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors will testify, as well as GOP witness KEN BENNETT, the former secretary of state for Arizona and the Arizona state Senate liaison to Cyber Ninjas.

 

THE MILKEN INSTITUTE GLOBAL CONFERENCE 2021 IS HERE: POLITICO is excited to partner with the Milken Institute to produce a special edition "Global Insider" newsletter featuring exclusive coverage and insights from one of the largest and most influential gatherings of experts reinventing finance, health, technology, philanthropy, industry and media. Don't miss a thing from the 24th annual Milken Institute Global Conference in Los Angeles, from Oct. 17 to 20. Can't make it? We've got you covered. Planning to attend? Enhance your #MIGlobal experience and subscribe today.

 
 
PLAYBOOK READS

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) speaks to reporters.

PHOTO OF THE DAY: Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) talks about the debt limit and the infrastructure bill to a large group of reporters outside his office Wednesday. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

TRUMP CARDS

'MURDER-SUICIDE PACT' — NYT's Katie Benner scoops new details on Trump's pressure campaign on his DOJ to investigate his false claims of election fraud. During a Jan. 3 meeting at which Trump floated the idea of installing an ally as acting A.G., "top leaders of the Justice Department … warned Mr. Trump that they and other senior officials would resign en masse if he followed through. They received immediate support from another key participant: PAT A. CIPOLLONE, the White House counsel. …

"Mr. Trump's proposed plan, Mr. Cipollone argued, would be a 'murder-suicide pact,' one participant recalled. Only near the end of the nearly three-hour meeting did Mr. Trump relent and agree to drop his threat. Mr. Cipollone's stand that night is among the new details contained in a lengthy interim report prepared by the Senate Judiciary Committee about Mr. Trump's efforts to pressure the Justice Department to do his bidding in the chaotic final weeks of his presidency."

BUILDING A MYSTERY — Meridith McGraw goes, um, deep on Trump's secret colonoscopy, revealed by STEPHANIE GRISHAM in her new book. "It was one of the great mysteries of his time in office. Why, exactly, did President Donald Trump make an unscheduled trip to Walter Reed National Medical Center one sunny Saturday afternoon in November 2019?

"A wide range of conspiracy theories was birthed from that moment — It was a heart ailment! He had a stroke! An impeachment driven anxiety attack? — further fueled by the fact that a White House famous for leaks steadfastly refused to explain it. Indeed, aides themselves didn't know. And those who did were incredibly tight lipped about it. Until now."

LEWANDOWSKI DID NOT GO GENTLY — So write The Daily Beast's Asawin Suebsaeng and Roger Sollenberger in a story headlined, "Lewandowski Demanded Cash After MAGA-Land Kicked Him to the Curb." After the longtime Trump aide was accused of sexual misconduct, "[w]hat followed, the sources described, was what amounted to stages of denial and bargaining before ultimately being abandoned by the world he claimed to dominate. Lewandowski, at first privately and then publicly through a lawyer, denied the details of the alleged incident. When that didn't work, he resisted leaving.

"Lewandowski then subsequently settled on pitching Trumpworld a not-so-modest proposal: in exchange for his resignation, the super PAC and the pro-Trump team would pay him a large sum of money to go away. Two of the knowledgeable sources said the former 2016 Trump campaign manager's demand was for hundreds of thousands of dollars. … His fellow Trump lieutenants gave him a hard no."

CONGRESS

FARMER JON — Sen. JON TESTER is a Democrat representing a pretty red state, but unlike some other centrists the Montana farmer has been a reliable team player for his party. In a new profile from Burgess Everett , Tester says he wouldn't mind a $3.5 trillion reconciliation price tag (though he's not so certain about electric car infrastructure), and he sounds upbeat about reelection in 2024. "It's hard for Chuck right now, dealing with the Bernie-Warren faction and the Manchin-Sinema faction. I don't want to add to that," Tester tells Burgess. "They're going to hear me complain and bitch and holler and scream when I don't like it, but it's not going to be in front of you. And I'm going to be very specific in what I want."

SANDERS VS. SINEMA — Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) refused to sign a statement "condemning last weekend's protests against Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) because it also wouldn't include a rebuke of her political views," Axios' Alayna Treene reports. "The move is emblematic of the hostility between the progressive and moderate members, who have been sparring over the cost and scope of Biden's agenda. Sanders wanted the statement to urge Sinema to drop her opposition to prescription drug reform, as well as Biden's $3.5 trillion social safety net expansion."

AVERTING THE CHOPPING BLOCK — As Democratic leaders work to narrow their reconciliation bill, Sen. BOB CASEY (D-Pa.) has been sending around a letter spearheaded by New America and signed by 100 top economists. The ask: to include $250 billion for home caretaking, which is already just over half of the originally proposed $400 billion backed by advocates. It's just the latest example of jockeying behind the scenes as the chopping block awaits.

 

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ALL POLITICS

BEING MIKE PENCE — The former VP is assessing what his political life will look like in a post-Trump world, WaPo's Ashley Parker and Josh Dawsey report. "Many Pence allies say it will be impossible for him to run if Trump is also in the field, though some of his political advisers maintain he could still enter, though with a more difficult path ahead," the two write.

"Pence told the 'Ruthless' podcast that he and the former president have spoken about a dozen times since Jan. 6. But a person familiar with the matter said that Pence has so far declined Trump's entreaties to visit him at his private Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., or at his private golf club in Bedminster, N.J., and that the two men have not spoken in recent months."

A FAVOR IN DISGUISE — Lisa Kashinsky and Stephanie Murray report that Trump's endorsement of Republican GEOFF DIEHL for Massachusetts governor may actually help his rival, current Republican Gov. CHARLIE BAKER. By endorsing Dieh, Lisa and Stephanie write that "Trump underscored Baker's distance from the national party and his persistent criticism of the former president in one of the most anti-Trump states in the nation."

POLICY CORNER

IMMIGRATION FILES — The Biden administration knew that a surge of Haitian migrants was headed for the border as early as July, "but a failure to share intelligence and an internal debate over whether to increase deportations left immigration officials ill-equipped to handle the 28,000 who converged on a Texas bridge in September," sources tell NBC's Julia Ainsley.

TEXAS ABORTION LAW BLOCKED — A federal judge on Wednesday blocked "the new Texas law that uses the prospect of private lawsuits to enforce a ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy," Josh Gerstein reports. "Acting on a suit brought by the Biden administration, U.S. District Court Judge ROBERT PITMAN issued a preliminary injunction on Wednesday evening that forbids Texas state court judges and clerks to accept suits under the law, known as S.B. 8."

JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH

WHO TOOK PELOSI'S BEER — Missouri women CARA HENTSCHEL and MAHAILYA PRYER were charged for their alleged participation in the Jan. 6 insurrection. The two were "charged based on an online tip to the FBI pointing investigators to Hentschel's Facebook page where she had posted photos of her and Pryer at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6," the Springfield News Leader's Jordan Meier reports. "In one exchange from January, Hentschel allegedly wrote, 'we storm peloskis [Pelosi's] office and took her beer. She drinks Corona.'"

VALLEY TALK

'BIG TOBACCO MOMENT' FOR FB? — This week's testimony from former Facebook executive FRANCES HAUGEN is "galvanizing members of both parties to unify behind sweeping proposals targeting social media companies, after years of stalled attempts, with some calling it the tech industry's 'Big Tobacco moment,'" WaPo's Cat Zakrzewski reports.

 

HAPPENING TODAY – POLITICO'S FIRST EVER DEFENSE FORUM : President Joe Biden is making critical shifts in the Pentagon's priorities, including fully withdrawing all U.S. troops from Afghanistan, scaling back U.S. military presence across the Middle East and rethinking the positioning of military forces around the world to focus more on China. Join POLITICO for our inaugural defense forum to talk to the decision makers in the White House, Congress, military, and defense industry who are reshaping American power abroad and redefining military readiness for the future of warfare. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
PLAYBOOKERS

Bob Casey corrected our "spotted" Wednesday: He wasn't so basic as to buy pumpkin spice coffee from Trader Joe's on Tuesday; he was there for pumpkin yogurt, per HuffPost's Igor Bobic.

Rachel Maddow told viewers she had surgery last week to remove skin cancer and "I am going to be absolutely fine."

Andrew Yang and Marianne Williamson appeared onstage together at City Winery to talk up the benefits of third parties. The entertainment value of a 2024 ticket would be off the charts.

Flood at the WH: It was an, ahem, urgent day for the men of the White House press corps Wednesday after a toilet in their designated bathroom flooded. No definitive reason (or culprit) has been provided. Thankfully, the water was clear.

Dick Durbin misremembered the name of Cyber Ninjas, and referred to the state of Arizona spending $5.7 million on "the Ninja Turtles."

Doug Emhoff gave a pregame pep talk to the Detroit Pistons ahead of their preseason home opener.

Louise Linton has her next film role.

SPOTTED: Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Richard Burr (R-N.C.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) and former Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) having drinks together at the Monocle on Wednesday night. … Michael Keaton at Off The Record on Wednesday night.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chair of the Republican Study Committee, is hosting a fundraiser with Chris Christie on Oct. 18. Tickets cost $500 to host, $250 to sponsor and $75 to attend, according to a copy of the invitation obtained by Playbook. The event comes as Banks has been doing RSC events and holding court with 2024 GOP presidential hopefuls. The invitation

Matt Labash has started a twice-weekly Substack called "Slack Tide." He is a former national correspondent at The Weekly Standard and author of "Fly Fishing with Darth Vader: and Other Adventures with Evangelical Wrestlers, Political Hitmen, and Jewish Cowboys." His first post

The Aspen Institute is announcing its Ascend 2021 Fellows, a group of 19 people who "all work on moving low-income families toward economic stability — from early childhood systems to racial justice programs." The list of fellows

Rex Elsass, founder of the Strategy Group Company, is launching the REID Foundation, dedicated to utilizing music and art to bring "front-line therapy" and prevention to communities and those affected by the opioid crisis, substance abuse, mental health issues or life crises. The foundation is named in honor of Rex's son, Reid Elsass, who died in June 2019, and his love of music.

Jamilia Headley is now co-executive director at Ady Barkan's Be A Hero. She most recently was chief of staff at Center for Popular Democracy and Center for Popular Democracy Action.

Juniper Downs is now global head of community policy and partnerships at Airbnb. She most recently was global director of public affairs for government affairs and public policy at Google and is a YouTube alum.

MEDIA MOVE — AJ Vicens is now a reporter covering cybercrime, nation-state threats and election security at CyberScoop. He most recently was a reporter at Mother Jones.

TRANSITIONS — Pyxis Partners is adding Jason Wallace and Monica Rodriguez as directors, Marlene Puthiyath as director of government affairs and Rachelle Ciulla as senior associate. … Joseph Daniels is now president and CEO of the America250 Foundation. He most recently was president and CEO of the National Medal of Honor Museum. … Kevin Brinegar is now a comms manager at Purple Strategies. He previously was a regional comms manager for Stand Together.

STAFFING UP — The White House announced several new nominations: James O'Brien as coordinator for sanctions policy at the State Department, Michael Kubayanda as a commissioner at the Postal Regulatory Commission, Elizabeth de León Bhargava as assistant HUD secretary for administration, Parisa Salehi as inspector general at the Export-Import Bank, Brian Tomney as inspector general at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Ben Wagner as inspector general at the Tennessee Valley Authority and John Putnam as general counsel at DOT.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Rep. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) … Tom Perez (6-0) … White House's Kate Berner and David Hayes ... NYT's Charlie Savage … retired Marine Corps Lt. Col. Oliver NorthKatrina vanden HeuvelChris Krueger of Cowen … AARP's Bill SweeneyStephen Jackson of the Ripon Society … Roll Call's Tom Williams … DOJ's Michael RosengartTodd WeilerAmanda Fleming of Public Citizen … USTelecom's Allison Remsen Arie LipnickMark OrlowskiJen HengstenbergMary Cox … Herald Group's Robert Brooks … CNN's Elizabeth Hartfield … GWU's Sean Aday Suz Redfearn

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