Sunday, October 3, 2021

🤫 Exclusive: Afghanistan's "betrayal"

Plus: Progressives lay down marker | Sunday, October 03, 2021
 
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Axios Sneak Peek
By the Axios Politics team ·Oct 03, 2021

Welcome back to Sneak. The Emmy-winning "Axios on HBO" returns.

Smart Brevity™ count: 1,711 words ... 6.5 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson.

 
 
1 big thing: Exclusive - Afghan ambassador decries country's "betrayal"
Afghanistan Ambassador to the United States Adela Raz is seen speaking with Axios' Jonathan Swan.

Ambassador Adela Raz speaks with Axios' Jonathan Swan. Photo: "Axios on HBO"

 

Afghanistan's ambassador to the United States, Adela Raz, has lost her country and her faith in the U.S. government — and her life's work of liberating women and girls is in shambles. She shared her despair with "Axios on HBO" in her first television interview since the fall of Kabul.

The big picture: Raz said, bluntly, she doesn't think President Biden cares about the fate of Afghan women and girls. She also revealed new details to Axios' Jonathan Swan indicating former President Ashraf Ghani's secret escape was more premeditated than publicly known.

  • In a devastating moment, she suggested she feels guilty for encouraging Afghan women to believe in a new future and serve with her in government, and for those she encouraged to stay in Afghanistan.
  • "One of them was a young woman that was assassinated. She was a human rights advocate," Raz said, tearing up.

Driving the news: The interview was taped last Monday in Raz's office on the top floor of Afghanistan's embassy in Washington.

  • She works there — effectively a refugee representing a leaderless government-in-exile.
  • She refuses to recognize the Taliban or leave her post — and said she still considers herself her country's ambassador — but the Biden administration has declined to meet with her.

The intrigue: She's kept the embassy open with a skeleton staff and flies her country's tricolor flag in the courtyard instead of the Taliban's white one.

  • Raz choked up as she looked out her office window at the tricolor flag. "That's how I know I'm Afghan," she said.
  • She said Ghani — her former boss — owes Afghans an explanation for his "betrayal" by secretly fleeing the country and effectively ceding Kabul to the Taliban without a fight.

Why it matters: Raz said she no longer trusts the U.S. government and doubts any Afghan will trust an American president for a long time.

  • "If you talk about democracy — I probably will question it and laugh at it," she said, when asked if she sees America as the leader of the free world. "You were engaged in building one in Afghanistan, and the people believed in it."
  • She criticized Biden's refusal to renegotiate former President Donald Trump's deal with the Taliban — a deal that had no protections for Afghan women after the U.S. withdrew.
  • But she also told Axios in a separate phone interview she fully trusts the American people and is profoundly grateful for the sacrifices that U.S. military and civilians made over the past 20 years in her country. She said she's devastated those gains were not protected.

A State Department spokesperson said: "Ambassador Adela Raz is the accredited representative of Afghanistan to the United States."

  • "Given the change of leadership in Kabul, our focus in Afghanistan is on whether any future government is one we and the international community can work with."

Keep reading.

📺 Watch: Ambassador Raz speaks about President Biden's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan.

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2. Progressives open to program limits
Rep, Pramila Jayapal is seen speaking during a rally in July.

Rep. Pramila Jayapal addresses a rally in July. Photo: Shannon Finney/Getty Images for Green New Deal Network

 

Progressives have shown they won't budge on what they want. But how they get there is now up for negotiation, the head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus said today.

Why it matters: Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said her group may not get the $3.5 trillion in social spending it held out for last week, but it's also not settling for the $1.5 trillion pushed by Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Adjusting the durations of some new programs — rather than cutting them altogether — may bridge the gap, Axios' Glen Johnson writes.

  • "What we have said from the beginning is, it's never been about the price tag; it's about what we want to deliver. The price tag comes out of that," Jayapal said on CNN's "State of the Union."
  • "Our idea now is to look at how you make [programs] funded for a little bit of a shorter time."
  • Clean-energy standards may have to be financed for a 10-year period to encourage business investment, she said. Other programs like free child care and community college may be funded for shorter terms that future presidents and Congresses can extend.

There's a broader debate inside the Democratic Party about whether to trim the scope of individual programs, cut some altogether or, as Jayapal suggested, dial back their duration. That's a way of establishing services that can then be continued down the road.

  • Critics argue it's better to fund a few programs for longer periods than dilute the government's ability to deliver too many services.
  • "We will consult with Congress," Cedric Richmond, a senior adviser to Biden and a former member of Congress, said when asked about the intra-party debate on NBC's "Meet the Press."
  • The $3.5 trillion bill that fell apart in the House is aimed at "soft" infrastructure, including a massive expansion of the federal safety net. It would be a companion to a $1.2 trillion "hard" infrastructure bill — already passed by the Senate — that's primarily focused on improving roads and bridges.

Jayapal hasn't gotten the ink of Manchin and other lawmakers but she's been equally setting the terms of the infrastructure debate. She refused today to get drawn into giving a top-line price tag for the progressives' priorities.

  • "It's going to be somewhere between $1.5 [trillion] and $3.5 [trillion]. And I think the White House is working on that right now, because, remember, what we want to deliver is child care, paid leave, climate change, housing."

Keep reading.

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3. GOP targets Dems with "Medicscare" ads
A screenshot shows a snippet of an ad targeting Rep. Frank Pallone over potential Medicare changes.

A screenshot of an ad targeting Rep. Frank Pallone (D-N.J.). Photo: Courtesy of A Healthy Future

 

Conservative and industry groups are trying to whip up opposition to Biden's massive social spending plan by warning it will imperil Medicare benefits, Axios' Lachlan Markay has learned.

Why it matters: "Medicscare" is a well-worn political tactic precisely because it can be effective. For Democrats, there's zero room for dissent against the $3.5 trillion proposal if they want to pass the bill, making efforts to peel off even just a few votes a real threat.

What's happening: Senior citizens in Arizona, represented by Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), potential Democratic holdout, have started receiving large boxes labeled "MEDICAL SHIPMENT. Please open immediately."

  • Inside, they find an empty prescription drug bottle and literature warning of Democratic plans to "ration Medicare Part D." That's a reference to a budget reconciliation bill provision that would allow the government to negotiate Medicare reimbursement rates for prescription drugs.
  • The mailers are the work of the Common Sense Leadership Fund, a Republican-aligned advocacy group. The mailers in Arizona specifically target Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), who's up for re-election next year.
  • CSLF spokesman Colin Reed told Axios the group is mailing the packages to seniors and unaffiliated voters in Arizona and New Hampshire, where the group is targeting Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), who's also up for re-election.

Another nonprofit advocacy group, A Healthy Future, is targeting the prescription drug portions of the bill in a digital ad campaign targeting key Democratic votes.

  • The group has spent nearly $300,000 on Google, Facebook and Instagram ads aimed at Reps. Frank Pallone, Tom Malinowski and Andy Kim, all Democrats from New Jersey — where the drug industry has a huge economic footprint.
  • "This is a prescription for disaster," its ads say. They urge calls to Congress to "oppose cutting Medicare to pay for the $3.5 trillion spending plan."
  • It's not clear who's behind A Healthy Future — the group did not respond to inquiries from Axios — but its messaging on reconciliation and past policy fights track with drug industry priorities.

The big picture: Democrats have turned to drug pricing reforms to offset part of the legislation's massive price tag, potentially paying for as much as $600 billion in new spending.

  • That's drawn intense opposition from the pharmaceutical industry — and lawmakers who enjoy the industry's backing.
  • If it's included in the final version of the legislation, it could be a major sticking point for groups looking to peel off wobbly Democratic votes.
  • Sinema has already said she opposes the effort.

Keep reading.

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A message from AT&T

AT&T unveils 3-year commitment to narrowing the digital divide
 
 

AT&T is continuing to take on the digital divide.

Here's how: The company is helping make affordable internet access a reality for families across the nation with a 3-year, $2 billion investment in broadband expansion.

See how AT&T is bringing connectivity to more Americans.

 
 
4. Redistricting revs up
 Illustration of a donkey and elephant dipping their tails into blue and red paint buckets.

Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios

 

A number of states have proposed or finalized new congressional district maps in the past week. The recurrent theme: protecting incumbents rather than expanding majorities, writes Axios' Stef Kight.

Why it matters: The flurry of activity is just the start of the high-stakes process that has the potential to affect congressional power for a decade. The biggest states are still to come — as well as deadlines, lawsuits and the potential for lots of court-drawn midterm maps.

  • "The narrative that is emerging is of incumbents protecting themselves, not necessarily trying to maximize their party's fortunes," Nate Persily, a redistricting expert at Stanford Law School, told Axios. "But there's still a lot of territory that remains."
  • Republicans are currently expected to net one-to-two seats through redistricting, according to the Cook Political Report's Dave Wasserman, but "we're also on track for far fewer competitive seats."

The details: Six states only have one district, so they don't have to go through redistricting. Three states have already completed new maps for the next decade, including in Oregon — where Democrats have the advantage to win the state's newly gained seat. The other two are Maine and Nebraska.

  • Texas's proposed map would likely net two Republican seats. It does not include a Hispanic-majority district, which experts say will likely result in a lawsuit.
  • Colorado's final proposed map includes one new competitive seat, giving Republicans a shot at equal House representation with Democrats in a state that voted for Joe Biden by 13 points in 2020.
  • The Ohio state legislature missed an initial redistricting deadline, allowing Republicans more time to gerrymander. But GOP legislators would have to prove to the state Supreme Court their map doesn't favor one party — or risk a court-drawn one that could cost them seats.
  • Michigan has an independent commission in charge of drawing maps with partisan fairness. It's not an easily defined metric. The state's geography favors Republicans, but "the question is whether the commission consciously uses partisanship to try to draw more democratic seats and achieve parity," Wasserman told Axios.

By the numbers: Princeton University and RepresentUs have launched an in-depth grading system for proposed and enacted maps — scoring them on partisan fairness, competitiveness and geographic features.

  • So far, they've given an overall "A" to Colorado, "B" to Ohio, "C" to Georgia and "F" to Texas maps.

Keep reading.

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5. Pic du jour: Between two ferns
A Secret Service agent is seen looking out from behind flowers as President Biden visits a coffee shop in Delaware.

Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

 

A Secret Service agent helped protect President Biden as he visited Brew Haha!, a coffee shop in Wilmington, Delaware, after attending Mass.

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A message from AT&T

AT&T unveils 3-year commitment to narrowing the digital divide
 
 

AT&T is continuing to take on the digital divide.

Here's how: The company is helping make affordable internet access a reality for families across the nation with a 3-year, $2 billion investment in broadband expansion.

See how AT&T is bringing connectivity to more Americans.

 

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