| | | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri and Eugene Daniels | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | A few realities a day after the Supreme Court abortion decision: 1) Several states are already weighing copycat laws. As our Alice Miranda Ollstein and Josh Gerstein report , top officials in Arkansas, South Dakota and Florida announced they're looking to replicate Texas' citizen enforcement scheme for their own abortion laws, while lawyers also say blue states may try to adopt a similar structure for getting around the courts on things like guns and Covid-19 precautions. Courts could, however, strike down Texas' law long before those state legislatures have a chance to attempt those legal gambits. 2) There's virtually nothing Democrats can do. President JOE BIDEN and Speaker NANCY PELOSI can say they'll try, and liberals can make demands, but the votes simply aren't there in the Senate to pre-empt the Supreme Court's upcoming ruling on whether to overturn Roe v. Wade. 3) Some conservatives who oppose abortion rights are arguing the Texas law is a terrible vehicle to advance the cause. From its six-week ban on abortions to the "bounty hunter" provision and no exceptions for rape or incest, it means they're swimming against popular opinion, even among those who are sympathetic to curbing abortions. Elected Republicans will be in a tough spot taking a stand on it. See GUY BENSON and BILL KRISTOL on this. MORE HEADLINES — "Texas Abortion Case Highlights Concern Over Supreme Court's 'Shadow Docket,'" NYT … "Abortion providers in GOP states fear what's next after Texas law goes into effect: 'I feel ill,'" WaPo POLICY-PALOOZA, PART 2: MEDICARE EXPANSION VS. ACA — Democratic leaders have been spending the August recess privately sparring over which health care programs should get priority in the party's $3.5 trillion reconciliation bill. The fight is expected to drag out for days if not weeks — and pits extra benefits for seniors versus coverage for more low-income individuals. Party leaders realize that tough decisions need to be made about what gets axed from their expansive health care wishlist. They have somewhere between $500 billion and $700 billion to play with, multiple senior Democrats close to the talks told Playbook — generated by prescription drug pricing reforms as well as changes to a Trump-era Medicare rebate program. (The prescription drug proposal faces pockets of Democratic opposition, so this total could actually shrink. But we're assuming for the purposes of this item that that's the number.) Here are the battle lines to watch, per Playbook sources: 1) PELOSI & THE 'SHORE UP THE ACA' CROWD: In the House, Pelosi and her fellow leaders — as well as the chairs of relevant panels — are adamant that the party has a responsibility to the millions of people using Obamacare to shore up subsidies indefinitely while they can. Currently, the subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2022, and there's a fear that unless Democrats make them permanent, Republicans could try to gut the historic program if (more like when) they take the House. This group also wants to cover 2.2 million low-income people in states that didn't accept the Obamacare Medicaid expansion. The issue, some believe, could play well in competitive areas in the 2022 midterms, like Georgia. The cost: Sources close to the talks estimate about $200 billion-$250 billion each for Medicaid expansion and shoring up subsidies, for a total of around $400 billion-$500 billion, but note that is not set in stone. People to watch: Pelosi, who's in legacy mode and views Obamacare as one of her crowning achievements. Also keep an eye on Majority Leader STENY HOYER, Majority Whip JIM CLYBURN (D-S.C.), Ways and Means Chair RICHARD NEAL (D-Mass.), Energy and Commerce Chair FRANK PALLONE (D-N.J.) and the Congressional Black Caucus, who are all in Pelosi's camp. The left's response: For a while now, progressives have been more interested in moving to a Medicare for All system than pouring billions into Obamacare. Expect them to argue that the party should fund Obamacare subsidies for a few years, rather than long term, in order to save money that could be used to expand Medicare. In other words, pack more items into the reconciliation bill but fund them over a shorter period of time. The downside of that is that benefits for millions of people could hinge on which party is in power in a few years. Progressives will argue that the GOP would be hard pressed to let benefits expire; but other Democrats say that thinking is naive. 2) BERNIE & HIS DENTAL PLAN BACKERS: On the other side of the Capitol, Senate Budget Chair BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.) is leading the charge to expand Medicare to include dental, vision and hearing benefits. Supporters note that one in five Americans over 65 have lost all their teeth, and some don't have money to pay for dentures, glasses and hearing aids. WaPo reported this week that Sanders is also pushing privately for an additional stopgap program to offer these benefits right away while the fuller program is being created, which could take three to five years. The cost: The CBO estimates about $350 billion. (Just under $240 billion for dental; $30 billion for vision; and $89 billion for hearing.) The additional stopgap program cost is unclear at this point but would likely be expensive. People to watch: Sanders and progressives, who view making Medicare more robust as a step in the direction of Medicare for All. Beyond Sanders, watch Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, who is on Sanders' side in this fight and negotiating with Pelosi. House sources are whispering that perhaps Schumer made a promise to Sanders about including his plan in reconciliation; Schumer's office didn't respond to a question about this but says he's backed including it for a long time. The ACA-crowd response: The NYT reported last weekend that Sanders' proposal has "near-universal support among Democrats," and that its main opponents are dentists who worry that Medicare reimbursements are too low. But while the Obamacare cheerleaders do support the proposal, they view it as secondary to ACA if the money isn't available to do both. Privately, they have another fear: that progressives, in a bid to push the nation toward Medicare for All, are trying to screw with Obamacare. "I don't think that the world has figured out that Bernie is booby-trapping ACA — whether on purpose or not — for his dental plan," said one senior House Democratic aide. "We are literally inviting the Republicans to come f--- around with ACA." The 2022 factor: Members want something tangible to run on. Since the dental program will take years to get off the ground, there is a concern that Democrats won't see the political benefit of this in time for the midterms. | | | | A message from AT&T: Accessible, affordable broadband helps communities reach their American Dream. That's why we're making a $2 billion, 3-year commitment toward helping close the digital divide, so more low-income families have the ability to succeed. Learn more. | | | Two other key dynamics to watch: — Where is the White House in this fight? The ACA vs. Medicare fight goes back to the 2020 campaign trail. Back then, candidate Biden sided with the ACA crowd. Now, sources close to these talks say the White House appears to be backing Sanders and the Senate — or at least isn't doing more to temper Sanders' expectations. "Everyone is afraid to tell Bernie no," the senior Democratic aide told us. — A third coalition? One final wrinkle in all this is an odd collection of House progressives and moderates who want to lower the Medicare eligibility age from 65 to 60. Almost everyone we talked to for this item says the idea is likely toast. But in June more than 150 House Democrats signed on in support — a group that included prominent progressives PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) and JOE NEGUSE (D-Colo.) but also moderates like CONOR LAMB (D-Pa.), who is running for Senate, and JARED GOLDEN (D-Maine), who represents one of the most competitive districts in the country. They might not be ready to give in so easily. P.S. If you're enjoying these policy deep dives — ICYMI, the first installment was earlier this week — and are a professional who'd like more, consider subscribing to POLITICO Pro. And for more on this topic, read Alice and Rachel Roubein on the Medicaid gap, the Medicare expansion and the pay-for squeeze. Happy Friday. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. THESE REPUBLICANS ARE GOING … BIG GOVERNMENT? — There's an intra-party fight on the right — and it's not (all) about DONALD TRUMP! For decades, conservatives have called for the government to take a hands-off approach to the economy. But now, a group of self-styled "common good capitalists" — like Sen. MARCO RUBIO (R-Fla.) — want to change that. And they're gaining power. It's a divide over not only what policy approach is best, but what the most effective political strategy is for the GOP in the 21st century. Tara talks with an influential voice in this new economic counterculture: Oren Cass, head of American Compass and MITT ROMNEY'S former campaign adviser, as well as Eliana Johnson, POLITICO Magazine contributor and editor-in-chief of the Washington Free Beacon, about this policy divide and where the 2024 GOP hopefuls land on this spectrum. Listen and subscribe here | | | | A message from AT&T:   We're making a $2 billion, 3-year commitment toward helping close the digital divide. | | | MANCHIN GONNA MANCHIN: When we last heard from JOE MANCHIN, it was way back on Aug. 11, when he voted to advance the Dems' $3.5 trillion budget — a vote that set in motion the reconciliation process. But accompanying his aye vote, the senator from West Virginia released a statement explaining that spending that much money caused him to have "serious concerns," including "rising inflation," exploding debt, and "unforeseen crises our country could face." Fast forward to Thursday, when Manchin popped up in the WSJ with an editorial in which he … essentially repeated the same argument. You can save time reading the entire piece by glancing at the subhead: "Amid inflation, debt and the inevitability of future crises, Congress needs to take a strategic pause." Inflation? Check. Debt? Check. Future crises? Check. That's the familiar Manchin case against the size of the Dem plan, and he's been making it for a while now. What was new was this predictably vague Manchinism: Dems need to take "a strategic pause" on reconciliation. What does that mean? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ But that's sort of the point. Manchin fires off a new warning about the high cost of securing his vote every few weeks, knowing that his every utterance, even if it's recycled, will gain the attention of Schumer and Biden, which helps solidify his kingmaker position in the Senate, and attract outrage from the left, which helps him back home in a state that Democrats don't win anymore. On cue, Rep. ALEXANDRIA OCASIO-CORTEZ (D-N.Y.) took to Twitter excoriating the senator: "Manchin has weekly huddles w/ Exxon & is one of many senators who gives lobbyists their pen to write so-called 'bipartisan' fossil fuel bills. It's killing people. Our people. At least 12 last night. Sick of this 'bipartisan' corruption that masquerades as clear-eyed moderation." BIDEN'S FRIDAY: — 9 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief. — 10 a.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on the August jobs report. — 10:30 a.m.: Biden will leave the White House for Louisiana, arriving in Reserve at 12:40 p.m. CDT. — 1:15 p.m. CDT: Biden will get a Hurricane Ida briefing from local leaders in LaPlace, followed by a neighborhood tour and remarks at 2:35 p.m. and an aerial tour of several affected communities at 3:55 p.m. — 4:40 p.m. CDT: Biden will arrive in Lafourche Parish, where he'll meet with local leaders in Galliano at 5 p.m. — 5:40 p.m. CDT: Biden will leave Lafourche Parish and make his way via New Orleans and Philadelphia to Wilmington, Del., arriving at 10:10 p.m. EDT. Principal deputy press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will gaggle on Air Force One on the way to Louisiana. THE SENATE and THE HOUSE are out. | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO OF THE DAY: The Manayunk neighborhood in Philadelphia is flooded in the aftermath of downpours and high winds from the remnants of Hurricane Ida on Thursday, Sept. 2. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo | TALIBAN TAKEOVER OUR MANIC NEWS CYCLE: SCOTUS and Ida pushed Afghanistan off the front page of the NYT. A LITTLE HELP, PLEASE — "U.S. presses Pakistan as Afghan crisis spirals, leaked docs show," by Nahal Toosi: "The Biden administration is quietly pressing Pakistan to cooperate on fighting terrorist groups such as ISIS-K and Al Qaeda in the wake of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. In response, Pakistan has hinted that Islamabad deserves more public recognition of its role in helping people now fleeing Afghanistan, even as it has downplayed fears of what Taliban rule of the country could mean. "These exchanges and others, described in emails, sensitive but unclassified cables and other written materials obtained by POLITICO, offer a glimpse into how tensions between Washington and Islamabad linger after two decades of war in Afghanistan. They suggest that the two governments are far from lockstep on the road ahead, even now that the United States has pulled its troops from Afghanistan." MORE — "Restoration of Kabul's Closed Airport Begins as Some Afghan Aid Resumes," NYT … "'It looked apocalyptic': Crew describes Afghan departure," AP … "Anti-Taliban resistance fighters rely on grit, history and geography to hang onto a sliver of Afghanistan," WaPo GOING LOCAL: Check out Eugene's first-person dispatch from The Helmand, an Afghan restaurant whose "enduring popularity is a testament to the vibrant Afghan diaspora that calls the Baltimore area home." KICKER: The Taliban "were disappointed" that U.S. forces bricked their planes and helicopters before leaving Kabul. POLITICS ROUNDUP BEHIND MARC ELIAS' BIG MOVE — "How Marc Elias, the Democrats' $1,200-an-hour legal bulldog, is preparing for his own war with Trumpism," by Insider's C. Ryan Barber and Jack Newsham: "In an interview with Insider, Elias said he was distancing himself from Perkins Coie and its corporate clients to devote his energies more fully to voting rights and defending an American democracy he believes Republicans are attacking. … "Elias' decision to leave his firm of nearly three decades was, perhaps, the natural result of his own Trump-era evolution. Before Trump became president, Elias was the consummate creature of Washington … Elias said Trump's election and subsequent presidency lit a fire that led him to go public with his progressive bona fides." WILL HE OR WON'T HE — "De Blasio gauging support for gubernatorial bid," by Sally Goldenberg DEEP DIVE — "Heeding Steve Bannon's Call, Election Deniers Organize to Seize Control of the GOP — and Reshape America's Elections," by ProPublica's Isaac Arnsdorf, Doug Bock Clark, Alexandra Berzon and Anjeanette Damon: "The stolen election myth inspired thousands of Trump supporters to take over the Republican Party at the local level, exerting more partisan influence on how elections are run." | | | | A message from AT&T:   "I never saw a farm as just a place to grow crops. I saw it as a place to grow possibilities."
Kamal Bell, Founder of Sankofa Farms | | | JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH CHENEY'S NEW PERCH — "Liz Cheney named vice chair of the January 6 select committee," CNN 'MY KEVIN' IN THE HOT SEAT — "McCarthy's phone records among those eyed by Jan. 6 investigators," by Nicholas Wu and Heather Caygle: "The select panel investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection has asked for House Minority Leader KEVIN MCCARTHY's phone records to be preserved as it expands its inquiry, a committee source confirmed Thursday. "McCarthy's name was included in a broad request the select panel sent Monday to social media platforms and telecommunications companies, asking them to preserve records that could be relevant to the probe of the attack. Although the request does not mean the committee will necessarily take the subsequent step of seeking McCarthy's records, the panel's move means the minority leader now faces a threat of having his personal data subpoenaed." ALSO: The QAnon Shaman will plead guilty, per CBS News. TV TONIGHT — PBS' "Washington Week": Courtney Kube, Anita Kumar, Susan Page and Craig Whitlock. SUNDAY SO FAR … | Gray TV | "Full Court Press": Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) … Catherine O'Neal. | MSNBC | "The Sunday Show": Ruth Marcus … Neal Katyal … Cecile Richards … Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) … Ben Rhodes … Amna Nawaz … Rob Reiner. | FOX | "Fox News Sunday": Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) … Ashish Jha. Panel: Jonah Goldberg, Catherine Lucey and Harold Ford Jr. Power Player: retired Navy Adm. William McRaven. | CBS | "Face the Nation": Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas) … Scott Gottlieb. | ABC | "This Week": Panel: Chris Christie, Donna Brazile, Heidi Heitkamp and Kristen Soltis Anderson. | NBC | "Meet the Press": Panel: Yamiche Alcindor, Matt Bai, Brendan Buck and Betsy Woodruff Swan. | CNN | "Inside Politics": Panel: Molly Ball, Joshua Jamerson, Jackie Kucinch, Kevin Liptak and Joan Biskupic. | | | | | | JOIN THURSDAY FOR A CONVERSATION ABOUT RETURNING TO THE WORKPLACE : Businesses across the U.S. are having to navigate all sorts of complexities around vaccines, masking requirements, testing and social distancing. Join POLITICO for a conversation to explore how government, public health officials and employers are navigating the return of in-person work. The focus of the conversation will be on the solutions for creating safe, in-person workplaces. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Jason Miller said it was "somewhere between 99 and 100%" certain that Trump would run for president in 2024. Nick Kristof is getting serious about running for governor of Oregon. Jen Psaki asked a man if he's ever been pregnant. Max Tani learned how to use a Shop-Vac. Greg Abbott shared that he's become pals with Elon Musk. Shaquille Brewster's uninvited MSNBC guest was charged with assault and disturbing the peace. MEDIA MOVE — Catherine Morehouse is now an energy reporter at POLITICO, covering the electricity grid, power industry and FERC. She previously was an associate editor and reporter at Utility Dive. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Platinum Advisors is adding Jessica Aune as a legislative assistant and Jordan Colvin as a VP. Aune most recently was Northern California fundraising director for the Biden campaign and inaugural committee, and is a Democratic fundraising/campaign veteran. Colvin most recently supported Pavea/Pillsbury's Qatar contract through her government affairs and consulting firm, and is a Hill alum. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Pablo Manríquez (@PabloReports): "NEW: White House calls Luisana Perez up from HHS to serve as Hispanic Media Director in EOP, replacing Audrey Lopez." STAFFING UP — The White House announced it will nominate Brad Crabtree as assistant secretary of Energy for fossil energy and carbon management. TRANSITIONS — Katie McBreen will be VP of comms at the Blue Cross Blue Shield Association. She currently is VP of comms and strategy at the Consumer Brands Association. … Nathaniel Sizemore is now press secretary for Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.). He most recently was comms director for Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.). … … Kristen Bennett is now House press secretary for America Rising PAC. She most recently was press secretary for two Republican gubernatorial races and is an RNC alum. … John Nagle is now government relations associate at Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. He previously was major gifts officer on the development team at Stand Together. … Jake Colvin will move up to become the next president of the National Foreign Trade Council. He's currently VP. TRUMP ALUMNI — Geoff Smith is now deputy director of the D.C. office of Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt. He previously was senior government affairs officer for DOT in the Trump administration. … Hannah Cooke is now scheduler for Rep. Virginia Foxx (R-N.C.). She most recently was scheduler and financial administrator for Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), and is a Trump Interior Department alum. … Mike Rigas is now interim president of BMT Designers and Planners. He is the former acting director of OPM and deputy director for management at OMB in the Trump administration. ENGAGED — Deesha Dyer, founder and CEO of Hook & Fasten and a former White House social secretary in the Obama administration, and Wesley Moe, a nonprofit consultant, got engaged Aug. 20 at The Reach at the Kennedy Center. Pic WEDDING — Sabra Simmonds, co-founder and CEO of research and comms firm Aslan Strategies, and Beau Guidry, a facility engineer for Amazon Web Services and a former submarine officer for the U.S. Navy, recently got married at the George Inlet Salmon Cannery in Southeast Alaska's Tongass National Forest. Jack Ferguson, who introduced the couple, officiated. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Time's Edward Felsenthal … CNN's Brian Stelter … Rick Perlstein … John Mercurio of the MPA … POLITICO's Katherine Foley … Lucia Alonzo of Michael Best Strategies … John Zogby … CBS' Erica Brown … Rita Hite of the American Forest Foundation … Dominic Hawkins of the Clyde Group … Todd Lindeman … Roll Call's Mary C. Curtis … NBC's Adam Reiss … AFSCME's Tiffany Ricci … Paul Merski of ICBA … Bruce Moyer … WSJ's Kristina Peterson … Sunshine Sachs' Shawn Sachs … Tiffany Waddell of the National Governors Association … Tripp Donnelly ... Hillary Allen of DCG Communications ... former Reps. Michael Barnes (D-Md.), Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.), John Olver (D-Mass.) and Michael Huffington (R-Calif.) ... Mara Stark-Alcala … Joshua Gross ... Flin Hyre ... Kathi Wise ... Jon Corley ... Jayne Visser ... Melinda Warner … E&E News' Jennifer Yachnin … Graeme Crews of the Southern Poverty Law Center … Jessica Ditto … Ana Ortega Villegas of Human Rights First … Kathleen Stanton of the American Cleaning Institute … Jeff Dinwoodie (4-0) … Italian PM Mario Draghi … Airbnb's Kim Rubey … Kelsey McKinney, author of "God Spare the Girls" Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross. | | | | A message from AT&T: Kamal Bell is the proud owner of Sankofa Farms, a thriving family farm that employs his community. He knows food insecurity impacts minority groups in his area. But with help from accessible and affordable broadband, he can provide a food source to local food deserts, and teach Black youth about agriculture and STEM. He also uses new tech to collect data, run beekeeping operations, and monitor his farm with drones. Thanks to Access from AT&T, we can connect low-income households like the ones Kamal works with, and more communities in areas we serve with their American Dream. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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