| | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Monday. Gone — The news and the math for Florida Democrats keeps getting worse. New voter registration numbers show that Republicans have almost completely erased the edge Democrats once enjoyed in the Sunshine State. By the numbers — To bring home what this means, POLITICO's Matt Dixon points out there were 700,000 more Democrats than Republicans when Barack Obama won the state in 2008. The number at the end of August 2021? 23,055. End of an era — As longtime Florida Democratic consultant/operative Steve Schale noted on his blog Friday: "Without a full-frontal, professional and accountable partisan effort to turn it around, sometime before the end of this year, there will be more Republicans registered in Florida than Democrats — that has NEVER happened before. And, given their voters have higher turnout scores — this isn't a great place to start." Long time coming — Of course this didn't happen overnight, but it's a reminder that past promises and efforts to build the ranks of Florida Democrats — largely through the help of third-party groups — didn't pan out over the past decade. It's also an ominous sign for Democrats trying to claw their back to relevancy in the nation's third-largest state. Work to do — Florida Democratic Party chair Manny Diaz — who was brought in following the disastrous 2020 cycle — maintains that Democrats are working to reverse the trend and that the party registered 20,000 Democrats in September. "We are starting to hit our stride and hopefully continue for us," Diaz told Matt. Diaz also maintained that Democratic counties have been updating their voter records faster during this off-year than GOP counties and that the Democratic advantage should grow in the weeks ahead. Up ahead — This is just part of a long line of issues bedeviling Democrats, including a struggle to recruit candidates and the fundraising gap the party has with Republicans. But math is math — if there are more registered Republicans than Democrats heading into 2022 then the outcome won't be a surprise and Florida's reputation as a battleground state begins to fade. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is expected to be in Dallas, Texas, for a fundraiser. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com | | | | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | |
|  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | SIREN — "'All-hands-on-deck crisis': Florida Democrats on verge on losing voter registration advantage," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: There is not one factor that has led to Republicans being on the verge of overtaking registered Democrats for the first time in modern Florida political history. Rather, there's a mishmash of factors that includes lack of cash, an overall failure to prioritize voter registration and a continued inter-party clash between the Florida Democratic Party and wealthy progressive donor groups that have split the party's resources and loyalties. "It is a huge deal for Florida Democrats, I can't stress that enough," said state Rep. Anna Eskamani, an Orlando Democrat who has been working to register voters in 2021. BEHIND THE CURTAIN — "'Devastating': Emails and texts show how Florida Republicans shaped elections bill." by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: Republicans said Florida's contentious new election law was needed to bolster security of future elections and downplayed any talk that they were pushing it to gain a partisan advantage. But that's not the full story. A raft of emails and text messages show that Florida's new law was drafted with the help of the Republican Party of Florida's top lawyer — and that a crackdown on mail-in ballot requests was seen as a way for the GOP to erase the edge that Democrats had in mail-in voting during the 2020 election. Texts between Gruters and Ingoglia — Yet in one remarkable text exchange obtained by POLITICO, state Sen. Joe Gruters and lead House sponsor state Rep. Blaise Ingoglia (R-Spring Hill) went back-and-forth over proposals to shorten how long mail-in ballot requests are valid. Gruters defended a Senate proposal to cancel all existing mail-in ballot requests, saying that it would be "devastating" for Republicans to keep them valid heading into the 2022 election when DeSantis and other state GOP officials are up for re-election. Warning — More than 2.18 million Democrats used mail-in ballots compared to 1.5 million Republican voters during the 2020 election where Trump easily won Florida. Part of that was due to the ongoing pandemic, as Democrats strongly encouraged voters to change their habits nationwide. "We cannot make up ground. Trump campaign spent 10 million. Could not cut down lead," Gruters wrote to Ingoglia, who had been chairman of the Republican Party of Florida before Gruters. | 
Sen. Joe Gruters explains a bill during session in Tallahassee, Fla. | AP Photo/Steve Cannon | DRAW THE LINE — "Florida redistricting could stoke new political tension," by Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas: "But the ripple effect of reapportioning Florida's 28 congressional districts, 120 state House districts and 40 Senate districts, is likely to exacerbate already festering political, geographic and racial divides. After being slapped down in the last redistricting cycle, the question before the Republican-led Legislature now is how far is it willing to test the constitutional limits by drawing maps that satisfy partisans but potentially risk rebukes from a more ideologically aligned but conservative state Supreme Court?" WALTZ WATCH — Rep. Michael Waltz picked up an endorsement on Sunday from former President Donald Trump even though he doesn't have a Republican opponent and is right now in a relatively safe GOP district. Trump's PAC put out a statement from the former president — who will be returning soon to Florida for the winter — where he called Waltz "a relentless fighter for the incredible people of Florida." Waltz, a former Army green beret who spent time in Afghanistan, has gotten a lot of national exposure lately as a persistent and vocal critic of President Joe Biden's withdrawal of troops from the nation. — " Newsom used DeSantis to win California recall. Does it mean anything in Florida?" by Tampa Bay Times' Steve Contorno — "DeSantis' political account soars to $53 million, including big bucks from out-of-state donors," by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello | | CORONAVIRUS UPDATES | | The daily rundown — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that there were 9,806 Covid-19 infections on Friday. The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services reported that 8,976 beds were being used in the state for Covid-19 patients. The Florida Department of Health also reported on Friday that 51,240 people have died from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic, with an increase of 8,988 between Aug. 20 and Sept. 17. The Florida Hospital Association reported Sunday that 36.3 percent of adult patients in intensive care units are infected with Covid-19. REQUEST MADE — Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, who has sided with President Joe Biden amid his tangling with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis over Covid-19, requested on Friday that Biden do a turnabout on the administration's new policy placing limits on how many shipments of monoclonal antibody treatment are sent to individual states. Fried, the only statewide elected Democrat, said that Floridians "have been victims of the DeSantis administration's pandemic mismanagement and misinformation" but that she wanted federal authorities to maintain Florida's allotments of Regeneron until Covid-19 numbers drop in the state. DeSantis as well as other Republicans have slammed the Biden administration for the decision to limit the doses. — " Ron DeSantis' 'Disastrous' COVID-19 response ripped in viral 'Florida is Vietnam' video," by HuffPost's Lee Moran — "12,000 students leave Broward schools as pandemic continues," by Sun Sentinel's Scott Travis — " Laura Loomer, anti-vax conspiracy theorist and GOP congressional candidate, says she has COVID," by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello — "'I can't see putting it in my body.' Disney employees march to protect vaccine mandate," by Miami Herald's Kalia Richardson | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | VOTERS MADE CHANGE IN 1998 — "Should Florida school races be partisan? State Republicans are seizing on the idea," by POLITICO's Andrew Atterbury: State Sen. Joe Gruters, the Florida Senate's education chair who also leads the Republican Party of Florida, on Thursday filed a proposal that could make school board races partisan, breaking from the state's long-standing rule keeping the elections free of party affiliations. The measure, a joint resolution that would put the question to voters in November 2022, comes as Florida's GOP leaders vow to devote more resources to local school board races as issues like critical race theory and school mask policies pushed education to the forefront of the culture wars during the coronavirus pandemic. DEPARTURES — State Senate Democrats are replacing four staffers in the Senate Democratic office, including staff director David Cox and longtime communications director Michelle DeMarco . The moves, which were first reported by Florida Politics, come just before state legislators return to town for their first committee meetings of the 2022 session. Sen. Lauren Book took over as Senate Democratic leader at the tail-end of the 2021 session after Democrats pushed to remove Sen. Gary Farmer. "We have a decided to go in a different direction with staffing," Senate Democrats said in a statement. ELECTION YEAR WISH LIST — Secretary of State Laurel Lee is asking state legislators to spend millions of dollars next year to bolster Florida's online voter registration system, improve the campaign finance database and pay for workers who can review whether felons are ineligible to vote under the state's contentious felon voting law. Highlights — The Department of State filed its legislative budget request for the 2022-23 fiscal year last week. Some notable items include a $12 million to "modernize election systems at the state and county levels." Part of that total includes $4 million to pay for software upgrades to Florida's online registration system that crashed during the 2020 registration deadline. More items — Lee's office also wants $1 million to hire outside lawyers due to anticipated lawsuits associated with the 2022 elections, $2 million for the electronic filing systems included the one used for campaign finance reporting, and $575,000 for a mailer to unregistered voters. Florida is required to identify and contact unregistered voters as part of a multi-state partnership that allows the state to screen for voters who may be registered in more than one state. The department wants to spend $1 million (the same amount it got for this year's budget) to pay for temporary workers to review the eligibility status of felons. — "Florida Supreme Court must OK suspension, fine proposed for Palm Beach County Judge Marni Bryson," by Palm Beach Post's Jane Musgrave | | | | JOIN THURSDAY FOR A WOMEN RULE CONVERSATION ON ENDING SEXUAL ASSAULT IN THE MILITARY: Sexual assault in the military has been an issue for years, and political leaders are taking steps to address it. Sens. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.) and Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) proposed bipartisan legislation to overhaul military sexual assault policies, but still face opposition. Join Women Rule for a virtual interview featuring Sens. Ernst and Gillibrand, who will discuss their legislative push and what it will take to end sexual assault and sexual harassment in the military. REGISTER HERE. | | | | |
| | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | FOR YOUR RADAR — "New Sarasota County resident Mike Flynn shows an interest in local politics," by Sarasota Herald-Tribune's Zac Anderson: "When Michael Flynn bought a house in Sarasota County in April it introduced a big wild card into GOP politics at the state and local level. Flynn has emerged as a MAGA star after being dismissed as former President Donald Trump's first national security adviser, convicted of lying to the FBI about his contacts with the Russian ambassador and then pardoned by Trump. Many conservatives view Flynn as a martyr who was unfairly prosecuted after being caught up in a Russia investigation they view as unjust. 'Michael Flynn is considered by a lot of people in the base as almost like a hero,' said Florida GOP Chair Joe Gruters, a state senator from Sarasota." | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | RETURNED — "US launches mass expulsion of Haitian migrants from Texas," by The Associated Press Juan A. Lozano, Eric Gay, Elliot Spagat and Evans Sanon: "The United States acted Sunday to stem the flow of migrants into Texas by blocking the Mexican border at an isolated town where thousands of Haitian refugees set up a camp, and American officials began flying some of the migrants back to their homeland. About a dozen Texas Department of Public Safety vehicles lined up near the bridge and river where Haitians have been crossing from Ciudad Acuña, Mexico, into Del Rio, Texas, for almost three weeks. The migrants initially found other ways to cross nearby until they were confronted by federal and state law enforcement." — "As thousands of Haitians cross border into Texas, deportations make many migrants reconsider," by Miami Herald's Jacqueline Charles IN MEMORIAM — "Ordinary moments turned extraordinary in the final hours before Surfside condo collapse," by Miami Herald's Linda Robertson: "But [Ita]Ainsworth never got to hold her namesake. Little Ita will only know her grandmother through stories and photographs. Ainsworth and her husband, Tzvi Ainsworth, 68, were killed when their beachfront condominium building smashed to the ground at 1:22 a.m. on Thursday, June 24. All told, 98 people died in the collapse of Champlain Towers South, the deadliest catastrophic failure of an occupied residential building in modern U.S. history. In videos of the sudden implosion, the condo looks like it was hit by an earthquake or detonated by dynamite as its 13 floors pancake on top of one another." BACK ON EARTH — "After three days in orbit, SpaceX Inspiration4 crew splashes down off Florida coast," by Florida Today's Emre Kelly: "The four crew members flying SpaceX's first fully non-professional mission splashed down off the Florida coast Saturday, wrapping up a whirlwind of activities that spanned almost exactly three days in Earth orbit. 'Thanks so much, SpaceX,' mission commander Jared Isaacman said just after Crew Dragon's 7:06 p.m. splashdown in the Atlantic Ocean. "'hat was a heck of a ride for us and we're just getting started.'" — " Alcohol banned at beach to discourage Georgia-Florida party," by The Associated Press — "Puerto Ricans celebrate culture, music, and heritage during their first post-COVID parade," by Orlando Sentinel's Jennifer A. Marcial Ocasio and Daniela Vivas Labrador | | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — "Search for Gabby Petito boyfriend continues after body found," by The Associated Press: "Authorities said a body discovered in northern Wyoming was believed to be that of a 22-year-old woman who disappeared while on a cross-country trek with a boyfriend now the subject of an intense search in a Florida nature preserve. The FBI said the body of Gabrielle 'Gabby' Petito was found Sunday by law enforcement agents who spent the weekend searching camp sites on the eastern border of Grand Teton National Park." SPOTTED — Senate President Wilton Simpson and House Speaker Chris Sprowls were among the politicians at this weekend's Florida-Alabama game in Gainesville. Looks like Sen. Marco Rubio also made it to the game. BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Jason Shoaf … State Chief Information Officer James Grant … businessman and investor Donald Soffer … (Was Sunday) Bill Varian, business editor for Tampa Bay Times ... (Was Saturday) Former Secretary of State Ken Detzner ... lawyer and lobbyist Reggie Garcia ... Jeff Sadosky, former communications director for Republican Party of Florida ... Former journalist John Van Gieson ... Orlando Sentinel politics and economy editor Mark Skoneki
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