News : POLITICO California Playbook: After recall’s failure, California’s Republicans face their fate

Monday, September 27, 2021

POLITICO California Playbook: After recall’s failure, California’s Republicans face their fate

Sep 27, 2021

By Jeremy B. White, David Siders, Carla Marinucci and Isabella Bloom

Presented by USA-IT

THE BUZZ — ASSESSING THE DAMAGE — It took a decade of electoral defeats and the humiliation of this month's failed gubernatorial recall. But as the California Republican Party gathered in San Diego over the weekend for its biannual convention, the bleak reality finally sunk in.

For the foreseeable future, as even party stalwarts here concluded, Republicans will likely not win top-of-the-ticket statewide races — or even compete seriously in them.

With the convention unfolding in half-empty meeting rooms at a waterfront hotel, there was no feting of Larry Elder, the conservative radio show host who enthralled the party's rank-and-file in the recall — though that was nowhere near enough to unseat an incumbent Democratic governor.

Nor was Kevin Faulconer, once widely considered the future of the state party, on the convention program. The former San Diego mayor, who did even worse than Elder in the recall election, took private meetings on the patio of a restaurant several blocks from the convention hotel, avoiding any confrontation with party activists who disdain his moderate politics. (Faulconer said in an interview that he planned to meet privately with delegates at the convention site, despite not speaking there, and "of course" felt welcome at the convention).

For years, Republicans in California have run candidates for marquee statewide races, lost and then regrouped, certain that the next time they might have a chance. But following their drubbing in the recall , party organizers are resigning themselves to the math. In a state where Democrats now outnumber Republicans nearly two-to-one, Republicans will compete in local races in parts of the state where they remain competitive, including in congressional districts in Orange County and suburban Los Angeles — where the outcome of several House races could determine the balance of power in Washington next year. But hardly anyone sees the party competing seriously statewide.

"We're down to, what, 23 or 24 percent [registration]?" said Randall Jordan, chair of the Tea Party California Caucus. "We don't have a lot of influence in the state of California."

There's no obvious fix for the party on the horizon. While Republicans in Democratic-leaning states like Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maryland found success in past election cycles recruiting relatively moderate members of their party to run for statewide office, the recall in California laid bare how much more difficult that calculation may be in the post-Donald Trump era. In the recall, the party's activist base would not tolerate Faulconer, a centrist, and deprived him of support. The base's chosen, more Trump-like candidate, Elder, won over Republicans but could not seriously compete for the Democratic and independent votes necessary to win.

The result is that the Republican Party in the nation's most populous state is poised to focus not on statewide races, but on the red and purple pockets of California where it holds congressional districts or could flip them. It's now less a statewide operation than a regional one. "Listen, we play in the fights that we can win," said Jessica Millan Patterson, the chair of the state party.

On Sunday, she told delegates that in 2022, the focus of the state GOP will be on helping Republicans retake the House — "on retiring Nancy Pelosi and replacing her as speaker of the House with a Republican from California, Kevin McCarthy."

Conspicuously absent from the party confab was Elder, the Republican who led the recall replacement field. (He was on the opposite coast, tweeting that he was "recovering from the campaign in Key West, Florida.") As Carla reports, Elder's meteoric ascent energized conservative voters even as his views alienated others, sharpening enduring questions about the CAGOP's ability to appeal to a statewide majority. Here's her story on how the Elder question is tied tightly to the party's electoral future.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Monday morning. We just saw the most consequential week in Los Angeles politics since President Joe Biden announced his intention to ship Mayor Eric Garcetti to India, with multiple prominent candidates jumping into the mayoral contest and a court dissolving a landmark homelessness order. Let's see what this week brings.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit cmarinucci@politico.com or jwhite@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @cmarinucci and @jeremybwhite.

A message from USA-IT:

With 840 miles of coastline and the nation's largest cargo gateway to Asia, California faces record amounts of illegal trade, which helps fund the criminal organizations transporting drugs, apparel, wildlife, weapons, counterfeit medicines, and even human beings into the state. Our partners are proud to be working on the ground in the Golden State, bringing our shared expertise into California's battle against illegal trade. Learn more.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "You shouldn't have a system that incentivizes the lieutenant governor to want to see the governor fail." Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis opposes changing the recall process so the LG replaces ousted governors. She also said Democrats blew up her phone to see if she would run — including former Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, who ran against then-Gov. Gray Davis — but she declined to "take the bait."

TWEET OF THE DAY: @RepMaxineWaters is not satisfied with the Biden administration's immigration policy: "Biden finally spoke up about the horrendous mistreatment of Haitians at the border. This admin owes us answers as to how & when it will stop the deportations & allow Haitians their legal right to petition for entry into the U.S. We cannot sweep this under the rug! We want action!"

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

TOP TALKERS

— "2 'View' hosts test positive for Covid before Harris interview," by POLITICO's Claire Rafford: Both hosts were fully vaccinated and it is unclear at this time whether Vice President Kamala Harris was exposed backstage.

— "San Francisco politics could see a major shake-up next week. Here's why," by the SF Chronicle's Trisha Thadani: "Longtime San Francisco City Attorney Dennis Herrera is likely to be approved to lead the city's Public Utilities Commission next week, an appointment that could lead to a flurry of changes within City Hall."

— " Newly unsealed court files in Devin Nunes' family farm lawsuit target workers' citizenship," by The Sac Bee's Gillian Brassil: "Newly unsealed court documents shed light on a central question in two defamation lawsuits Rep. Devin Nunes and his family members filed against a national magazine: Were any workers at the family's Iowa dairy undocumented immigrants?"

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

CAMPAIGN MODE

— Bass set to launch Los Angeles mayoral run, by POLITICO's Nicholas Wu and Jeremy B. White: Her entry would immediately reshape the nascent contest to govern America's second-largest city. While the field is still forming ahead of a 2022 vote, Bass (D-Calif.) wields broad name recognition and deep popularity among Black Angelenos and progressive activists who have urged her to run.

— "After police reform talks fail, Karen Bass discusses what's next, and her message to George Floyd's family," by the LA Times' Nolan D. McCaskil.

— "Momentous mayor's race will be a pitched battle over how to fix L.A.'s ills," by the LA Times' David Zahniser, Dakota Smith and Benjamin Oreskes: "Over the next eight months, the candidates will have to reveal their views on how large the Los Angeles Police Department should be, and whether its responsibilities should be scaled back to reduce the potential for deadly interactions with the public; how to make housing more affordable, as rents and home prices push skyward; and what solutions will, once and for all, get people off of the streets."

— " 'I don't feel like it's a loss': Resignation and a glimmer of hope in California's most pro-recall county," by the SF Chronicle's Alexei Koseff: "It's a common sentiment in Calaveras County that the recall didn't amount to anything — particularly after the governor's own boastful victory, in which he sounded ready to double down on his progressive agenda. That burst any illusions that Newsom might emerge from the experience humbled, perhaps a bit more conscious of the millions of Californians who felt ignored by him and wanted him gone."

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— PG&E faces criminal charges after fatal 2020 fire, by POLITICO's Colby Bermel: Pacific Gas & Electric's legal troubles continued to mount on Friday as a district attorney charged the utility with numerous felonies tied to the 2020 Zogg Fire in Shasta County that killed four people.

— "Is San Diego building an Amazon company town from scratch?" by The San Diego Union-Tribune's Joshua Emerson Smith: "Warehouses and other industrial facilities are popping up in Otay Mesa at a staggering pace — most notably in the form of an enormous new 3.4 million-square-foot Amazon distribution center."

— " A 'thirsty' atmosphere is propelling Northern California's drought into the record books," by the LA Times' Paul Duginski: "Evaporative demand has propelled almost half of California into what the U.S. Drought Monitor calls "exceptional drought." It causes faster drying soils and vegetation, making fuels more dangerously combustible during the summer and fall, the peak of California's fire season. As a result, fuels burn faster and hotter."

— " State's largest ongoing prison COVID outbreak linked to staff member; early quarantine release questioned," by the SF Chronicle's Matthias Gafni: "State officials have linked a quickly spreading coronavirus outbreak at a Central Valley prison to an infected staff member, but would not say whether the employee was vaccinated."

— " California to offer COVID booster shots for teachers, healthcare workers, seniors," by the LA Times' Luke Money and Rong-Gong Lin: "A coalition of public health experts from California and other Western states has endorsed offering COVID-19 vaccine boosters to older and high-risk residents, marking a significant new step in the effort to armor the population against the still-potent pandemic."

— " Why a COVID vaccine mandate for California schools would be unprecedented," by the SF Chronicle's Erin Allday: "Mandates that children be vaccinated before attending school date back more than a century in California. … But in the past, vaccine mandates have come almost exclusively from state legislatures."

— "Lightning could spark more California fires as world warms ," by CalMatters' Julie Cart: "Fire officials are bracing for the worst as scientists predict that climate change could cause more lightning strikes, which often ignite deadly, unpredictable and remote wildfires in Northern California."

— "'We may lose this.' Despair over gentrification reaches new depths in South L.A.," opines the LA Times' Erika D. Smith: "That residents are getting priced out of their historically Black neighborhoods and being forced to move to cheaper cities in the high desert is nothing new. What is new is the level of despair and, in some cases, sheer panic over a confluence of — at least on the surface — seemingly unrelated events that could forever change South L.A."

— "As UC makes room for more Californians, can it afford to lose out-of-state students? " by CalMatters' Mikhail Zinshteyn: "Out-of-state UC students are having a bad year. The Legislature made plans to have the UC enroll fewer of them to make way for more in-state students. Meanwhile, tuition is going up $8,000 for future out-of-state students."

— "Gavin Newsom signs law to replace Sacramento Junipero Serra statue with monument for tribes," by The Sac Bee's Kim Bojórquez.

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

— "Biden and Harris hold their own immigration policies at arm's length," by the LA Times' Noah Bierman and Janet Hook: "Biden and Harris are attempting a difficult political feat: criticizing the actions of their own administration. The problem for Biden and Harris is that the methods used by the Border Patrol agents, though potentially improper, stem at least in part from the administration's decisions to pursue a policy of deterrence, according to immigration experts and advocates."

PELOSI'S PRECARIOUS POSITION — Pelosi goes all in with domestic agenda on the line , by POLITICO's Heather Caygle, Sarah Ferris and Nicholas Wu: House Speaker Pelosi is a self-described "master legislator" but even her power over how Biden's agenda plays out across two chambers with threadbare majorities has its limits.

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we've got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don't miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— "Google's provider of at-home Covid-19 tests is now a $3 billion company traded on Nasdaq," by CNBC's Jennifer Elias: "In April, Google started sending at-home Covid-19 tests to its U.S. employees from a little-known start-up in San Diego called Cue Health. … Google instantly became the health tech company's biggest private sector customer."

CANNABIS COUNTRY

BLUE-RIBBON BLUNTS? — "Who has the finest flower? California State Fair to hold first marijuana competition," by The Sac Bee's Andrew Sheeler: "For the first time, the fair in 2022 will host a competition — open to all licensed cannabis cultivators in the state — to judge the finest flower in California."

MEDIA MATTERS

— "KTVU again removes Frank Somerville from the air," by the Mercury News' Chuck Barney: "According to station sources, Somerville, 63, has been 'suspended indefinitely' by Channel 2 management after a disagreement with news director Amber Eikel over coverage of the Gabby Petito homicide case."

— LA Times politics reporter Patrick McGreevy — perhaps the swiftest writer in the Sacramento press corps — is hanging it up after 15 years on the state politics beat.

MIXTAPE

— "He built a powerhouse set of Wine Country restaurants. Ex-staffers say he sexually harassed employees along the way," by the SF Chronicle's Janelle Bitker.

— " How California's EDD got scammed out of $2 million by a prison inmate, a nurse and a car dealer employee," by the SF Chronicle's Carolyn Said.

— "How Los Angeles Became the City of Dingbats," by Bloomberg's Laura Bliss.

— " Westminster grapples with homelessness, considers opening a shelter," by the Orange County Register's Theresa Walker.

— "Joe D., Catfish, 'Moneyball' and more: Steve Vucinich's lifetime of A's stories," by the SF Chronicle's John Shea.

A message from USA-IT:

California boasts the largest, most robust economy in the United States. But with 840 miles in coastline and a port complex that also provides the nation's largest cargo gateway to Asia, California also faces record amounts of illegal trade. This robs revenues used to provide essential services to Californians. Instead of helping taxpayers, that money is used to fund those who traffic in drugs, apparel, weapons, counterfeit medicines, tobacco, wildlife, and even people. These groups exploit governments and citizens, manipulate financial systems, spur corruption, and cultivate instability and violence that threatens our communities.

That's why our supporting partners at USA-IT are proud to be working on the ground in the Golden State, bringing our shared expertise into California's battle against illegal trade. Learn more.

TRANSITIONS

WEEKEND WEDDING — Debra Kahn, POLITICO California's ace environmental reporter, got hitched in Santa Rosa this weekend.

BIRTHDAYS

SUNDAY: Mark Isakowitz of Google … Nick Pompeo ... Monique Moss

SATURDAY: Rep. Doris Matsui … Salesforce's Marc Benioff … April Greener of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office …Danny Yadron

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you're promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

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