| | | | | | | Presented By AxiosHQ | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By the Axios Politics team ·Sep 30, 2021 | | Welcome back to Sneak. The country starts its next fiscal year tomorrow with its government funded — temporarily. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,559 words ... 6 minutes. Edited by Glen Johnson. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Pelosi's "fun part" |  | | | House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Majority Whip James Clyburn hold legislation passed today that extends government funding to December. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images | | | | House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) is holding on 'til the end. Driving the news: Pelosi spent today — "hour by hour," she termed it — wheeling and dealing behind the scenes with the different factions of her party, write Axios' Alayna Treene and Sarah Mucha. The constant: forging ahead with her promised vote on President Biden's $1.2 trillion infrastructure package despite progressive threats to sink it. - "We are proceeding in a very positive way," the speaker told reporters during her weekly press conference this morning.
- "We're on the path to win the vote," she also declared.
- House leaders said any potential votes would not take place before 9pm. Asked about 7:45pm when there would be a vote, the speaker replied: "When we bring it to the floor."
Despite her optimism and public display of confidence, the attitude entering the day was grim. The two warring factions were promising two totally different outcomes and making two completely opposite demands. - Centrists demanded Pelosi follow through on her commitment to hold a vote on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure plan already passed by the Senate.
- Progressives said they wouldn't support it until Congress passed the $3.5 trillion companion bill stocked with their provisions to expand the social safety net.
The latest: Pelosi hosted three groups in her office as she tried to navigate a path toward common ground. Each left with a different impression of the road ahead. - Moderates said they were confident there would be an infrastructure vote tonight.
- Progressives said they still do not feel like they have a specific agreement ensuring Biden's larger reconciliation package will pass the House and Senate.
- Members of the New Democratic Coalition, which represents a mix of the two, said they were hopeful a deal is imminent — but were unclear whether the vote would be held today.
Late in the day, key White House officials met with senior leadership staff to work on compromise language for the $3.5 trillion package. - The goal was to gain the support of holdout Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), a source familiar with the negotiations confirmed to Axios.
- Susan Rice, head of the administration's Domestic Policy Council, and Brian Deese, the president's top economic aide, huddled with senior aides to Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).
- Punchbowl News first reported on the meeting.
Adding to the uncertainty, Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), the House majority whip, told reporters at 3pm ET he had not yet started whipping — counting — votes. - It was a clear sign the vote was not imminent.
What they're saying: "Look, we are in the same place we've always been," Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said after her meeting with Pelosi. - "If there's somebody who wants to tell me what is the assurance that the Senate is going to vote the reconciliation bill through, of course we're always open," she added.
- Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), a leader of the centrists, said: "Vote is happening today. We're moving forward."
- Rep. Ann Kuster (D-N.H.), a member of the New Democratic Coalition, told Axios: "The reason we say 'hour by hour,' we're not there yet. By tonight, we all hope to be there, and all of those groups have to be on one page."
- "You know that thing with the white smoke and the Pope? It's like, that's what people are waiting for."
Between the lines: Negotiations are always messiest right before a deal is struck, as Pelosi herself declared. - "Let me just tell you about negotiating," she said during her news conference. "At the end, that's when you really have to weigh in. You cannot tire. You cannot concede. This is the fun part."
- One thing all three groups echoed: never doubt the speaker.
What's next: Kuster said the worst-case scenario in her mind is the vote gets delayed a couple of days — rather than weeks. - "Keep in mind, just the way Monday became Thursday [for a promised vote], Thursday can become Sunday," she said.
|     | | | | | | 2. Voting official told: "I KNOW WHERE YOU SLEEP" |  | | | Jena Griswold. Photo: AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images | | | | Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold told Axios' Alexi McCammond today, "We're seeing this 'Big Lie' get bigger," and as a result, she's receiving more personal threats for trying to protect voting access. Why it matters: Roughly nine months after the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection and Biden taking office, the ripples are spreading far from Washington — now to local election officials. - "The lies about 2020 are worse than they were in 2020," Griswold told Axios.
Driving the news: The secretary is advancing a lawsuit against a Republican county election clerk in Mesa County, Colorado. - The clerk is alleged to have been involved in a security breach of the county election systems.
- Griswold told Axios she's received countless threats not just through professional email and phone lines but personal channels, too.
- "I KNOW WHERE YOU SLEEP, I SEE YOU SLEEPING. BE AFRAID, BE VERY AFRAID. I hope you die," one message said.
Between the lines: In states like Colorado, Michigan, Arizona and Georgia, the idea that the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent and somehow stolen from Donald Trump has pushed voters to continue questioning — and, in some cases, threatening — their state officials who oversee elections. - Arizona's secretary of state, Democrat Kathy Hobbs, was recently given security detail following increased death threats after the state's 2020 election audit, CNN reported.
- Georgia's secretary of state, Republican Brad Raffensperger, reported that he and his family received threats months after the election.
- In May, Michigan's secretary of state, Democrat Jocelyn Benson, released a statement denouncing "bills based on the Big Lie" in her state.
- Last December, "dozens of armed individuals stood outside my home shouting obscenities and chanting into bullhorns," Benson wrote in a statement.
The bottom line: Even without a President Trump in the Oval Office, his supporters are clinging to the idea he illegitimately lost the election. Elections officials are paying part of the price. - "This is new," Griswold told Axios. "When I was first elected, I got a couple of threatening communications, but not like this. We're seeing this 'Big Lie' get bigger and the amount of vitriol is getting worse."
- "We won't be intimidated," she said. "We won't stop."
| | | | | | | | 3. Bat time: Rs vs. Ds |  Data: U.S House of Representatives; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Republicans narrowly broke the Democrats' three-game winning streak in the annual Congressional Baseball Game last night. Why it matters: Although congressional baseball games have been played since the early 1900s — at times against the media — it's been an annual, partisan affair since 1962, Axios' Stef Kight reports. Between the lines: The highlight of this year's game was a rare, out-of-the-park home run hit by Rep. Greg Steube (R-Fla.). - It sent congressional Republicans to a 13-12, seven-inning victory.
- President Biden attended the game and visited both dugouts.
- The event raised $1.2 million for charity.
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Get a live demo | | | | | | 4. Biden's Turkey problem |  Data: U.S. government press releases; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios Belligerence toward the U.S. and deepening cooperation with Russia by Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are sending a key U.S. relationship in the wrong direction. Why it matters: The twin dynamics with a NATO ally are serving up another headache for Biden amid a string of foreign policy crises, Axios' Zachary Basu writes for Axios World. Driving the news: Speaking to reporters on his way back from Sochi, Russia, Erdogan accused Brett McGurk, the White House coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa, of "supporting terrorism." - The Turkish president accused McGurk — who previously worked as the U.S. anti-ISIS envoy — of allying the United States with Kurdish militias in Syria.
- Turkey considers the Kurds a top threat to national security.
For the U.S., a far more pressing issue is Erdogan's purchase of Russia's S-400 missile defense system. - The move triggered sanctions and Turkey's removal from a program developing F-35 fighter jets.
- "We made a $1.4 billion payment, what will become of that?" Erdogan told reporters. "We did not — and do not — earn this money easily. Either they will give us our planes or they will give us the money."
How we got here: Biden's relationship with Erdogan began with a "cold shoulder" period, says Aykan Erdemir, a former Turkish member of parliament now at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. - The fledgling Biden administration was critical of Turkey's human rights abuses, and it took until April for Biden to speak to Erdogan — a courtesy phone call that the president delivered one day before he formally recognized the Armenian genocide, enraging Turkey.
Relations improved after Biden met with Erdogan at the NATO summit in June. - However, Biden's refusal to meet with Erdogan at the UN General Assembly last week — denying the image-conscious strongman a photo op — prompted a new outburst.
- "In my 19-year-long life as a ruler as prime minister and president, the point we arrived in our relations with the U.S. is not good," Erdogan told reporters Wednesday. "I have worked well with Bush Jr., with Mr. Obama, with Mr. Trump, but I can't say we have a good start with Mr. Biden."
🖋️ Go deeper: Subscribe to Dave Lawler's biweekly Axios World here. | | | | | | | | 5. Pic du jour: Hat shot |  | | | Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images | | | | Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) left the Capitol yesterday before the Congressional Baseball Game. | | | | | | | | A message from AxiosHQ | | Get stakeholders smarter, faster with Axios HQ | | | | | | | | AxiosHQ is a simple tool — perfected by Axios writers and machine learning — that helps you communicate more effectively with stakeholders. - It includes tips to make communications easier to digest. For example, add an Axiom to highlight your main points.
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