Al Qaeda’s murky future in Afghanistan

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Sep 30, 2021 View in browser   By Myah Ward Presented by the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network LATEST FROM THE HILL — Government shutdown? No. Votes in the House? Not until at least 9 p.m. tonight. And on the Senate side, as Marianne LeVine wrote, "Democrats are desperately trying to make lemonade out of the bag of lemons Joe Manchin handed them today. Senate Democrats spun away Manchin's utter rejection of their $3.5 trillion spending dreams and embrace of a $1.5 trillion plan as a positive development, saying that it offered them a path forward for negotiation on a potential deal. When that deal will come to fruition, however, is anyone's guess." Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark A. Milley testifies before a House Armed Services Committee hearing on the conclusion of military operations in Afghanistan. | Olivier Douliery - Pool/Getty Images 'OUT OF OPTIONS' — Six to 36 months. That's how long it could take al Qaeda to reconstitute in Afghanistan, Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. Mark Milley said in a hearing Wednesday. It was a prediction from the nation's highest-ranking military officer — one that, particularly after the fall of Kabul, indicates the U.S. may have trouble figuring out what's coming next. Milley's estimate is most likely gut instinct, said Colin Clarke, director of policy and research at The Soufan Group, a nonprofit focused on global security. "My concern is that we've gotten so much wrong with respect to Afghanistan, that those suggestions that it could take 12 or 18 months are also going to be wrong, and that we're going to be looking at a much shorter time frame," Clarke said. It's hard to calculate the speed at which the terrorist group will once again increase its numbers and operational capacity in Afghanistan, Charles Lister, director of counterrorism at the Middle East Institute, said — something he sees as inevitable after the United States' exit that allowed al Qaeda's old ally, the Taliban, to take power. Much of the group's central leadership is currently based in Iran, Lister said. The question will be whether or not these leaders will be able or allowed to return. If the group could successfully get its new leader into Afghanistan — something not guaranteed, but definitely feasible — it would have global ramifications, Lister said. With al Qaeda and Iran's complex history, experience has taught the group to never trust leadership instructions coming from Iran, Lister said. Since Ayman al-Zawahiri, the group's global leader, is reportedly in poor health, al Qaeda is already thinking about succession. Even with al Qaeda's potential revitalization in Afghanistan, the group looks nothing like it did in 2001. The U.S. crippled al Qaeda's central leadership, successfully keeping it at bay for nearly two decades. But that doesn't mean it's smaller, Lister said. Al Qaeda has actually expanded, deeply embedding itself into local communities in countries like Somalia, Yemen and potentially in northern Syria. Al Qaeda's strategy has changed, too. The group has created a security blanket through its community integration, Lister said. Their goals have also become more regional and localized, with less focus on taking down the West. That doesn't mean the threat still doesn't exist. Many counterterrorism experts worry about groups like al Qaeda and ISIS-K becoming empowered in a Taliban-led Afghanistan. Running a country isn't an easy feat, and the Taliban won't have the bandwidth to fight off groups like ISIS-K, leading them to lean on their longtime ally yet again for back-up. "The Taliban's bandwidth is going to be maxed out. So, if there is an al Qaeda revival and al Qaeda does still seek to target the West, what can the Taliban actually do about it?" Clarke said. "The Taliban needs al Qaeda, and al Qaeda needs the Taliban." The warning signs are already there, as foreign fighters from countries like Iran and Pakistan flood Afghanistan and join ISIS-K and al Qaeda forces. Plus, Clarke worries the environment in Afghanistan is a breeding ground for more groups to pop up that may be more focused on staging an attack on the United States. The U.S. is more prepared to prevent an attack like we saw on Sept. 11. But it's also true that the disconnect between intelligence and military strategy will only be exacerbated without U.S. ground troops, Clarke said. The fact that the U.S. is in talks to use Russian bases for Afghan counterterrorism operations tells both Clarke and Lister that America is not well-positioned to respond to a resurgent al Qaeda in the country. "We are out of options. Our only options are in the Gulf, which is like a six-plus hour flight for a drone to get to Afghanistan and in the counterterrorism world that is too long," Lister said. "Targets emerge quickly, and they can disappear just as quickly. And if we spend six hours flying to Afghanistan, the likelihood of us being able to act on anything is pretty slim." Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at mward@politico.com and on Twitter at @MyahWard.   A message from the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: The National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) provides lifesaving cancer screenings in low-income communities, but fewer than 2 in 10 eligible individuals received breast or cervical cancer screenings through this critical safety net program. Lawmakers must take action to end this divide in access to cancer prevention, early detection and treatment. Increased funding for the NBCCEDP will help more individuals get the cancer care they need—and help end this alarming divide.   First In Nightly NEW POLL SHOWS DRUG PRICING TOP PRIORITY — Americans support letting the government negotiate drug prices above all the other major priorities in the infrastructure and social spending packages now before Congress, according to a new POLITICO-Harvard poll that suggests health care is at the top of most respondents' minds. But the drug pricing plan could be in peril as some centrist Democrats spar with Speaker Nancy Pelosi over the scope and details. Democratic leaders are now considering scaling back a House leadership-backed proposal or dropping it entirely from the $3.5 trillion social spending package. Asked to choose among 20 policy priorities, 39 percent of respondents picked direct government price negotiations with drug manufacturers first. That was followed in order of preference by increased federal spending to prepare for pandemics, more resources for long-term and home-based care and expanding Medicare to include dental, vision and hearing care. All of the proposals are included in the sweeping $3.5 trillion social spending package, but have been hotly contested as the Democratic caucus splits over ways to lower the overall price tag and garner enough votes. Head to POLITICO Friday morning for more polling and analysis from the health care team. "I think it's not just me personally that has doubts about the court now. The fact is that we have two sitting Supreme Court justices who have gone through hearings about sexual misconduct. … The court really is only as strong as all of the people who are sitting on it. So having two sitting justices whose integrity has been called into question is a blow to the court and the entire judicial system in this country." — Anita Hill, to Katelyn Fossett, in an interview coming Friday in POLITICO Magazine   TELL US WHAT YOU THINK: Do you listen to POLITICO podcasts? We want to hear from you! Tell us what you like, what you could do without, and what you want to see in the future from the POLITICO Audio team! Your responses will help us improve our offerings and tailor our podcast content to better fit your needs. Find the survey here.     What'd I Miss? — Pelosi barrels ahead on infrastructure vote: Pelosi scrambled today to reach a bicameral deal that Democrats think is key to unlocking the votes for Biden's infrastructure bill , in a daring test of her control over the threadbare majority. The California Democrat spent the final hours before the planned vote huddling with White House and Senate aides in an attempt to craft a spending bill framework that both House progressives and moderate Sens. Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema can accept. — Biden team's booster divide deepens as risk of winter virus surge looms: President Joe Biden's top health advisers are split over the role booster shots should play in the next phase of the pandemic, setting up key fault lines to close in the coming weeks as they try to ward off further surges this fall and winter. Their disagreement centers on whether the U.S. should eventually offer an additional shot to every vaccinated adult in hopes of preventing even mild and moderate symptomatic breakthrough infections, according to three senior health officials and two people familiar with the government's internal discussions. — Noem cuts ties with adviser Lewandowski after donor alleged unwanted sexual advances: South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem has severed ties with political strategist Corey Lewandowski, following allegations reported by POLITICO that Lewandowski made unwanted sexual advances toward a woman at a recent fundraising event. Lewandowski had been a top adviser to Noem and had traveled the country with her in recent months, introducing her to major Republican Party donors and power-brokers. Noem has emerged as a rising star in the GOP and is widely considered a potential candidate for president in 2024. — Supreme Court to hear case over Boston's refusal to fly Christian flag: The Supreme Court has agreed to take up a case over local officials' refusal to fly a Christian group's pennant outside Boston City Hall. In a brief order list addressing cases that accumulated over the summer, the justices indicated they will review an appeals court ruling issued in January that found the city did not violate the Constitution by turning down the flag-flying request from a Christian organization called "Camp Constitution."     Ask The Audience Nightly asks you: Has the Delta variant led you to change you or your family's Thanksgiving or holiday plans? Use our form to send us your responses, and we'll include select answers in a future edition.   BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. 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(h/t Katy O'Donnell and Michael Stratford) Parting Words BACK TO 'SCHOOLHOUSE' — If you enjoyed Nicholas Wu's "Schoolhouse Rock!" take in Nightly on the current state of play in Congress, don't miss this reboot of the '70s classic for the modern era from cartoonist Matt Wuerker and POLITICO's video team. Before drawing it all out, Wuerker spoke with congressional reporter Sarah Ferris to better understand all the unsung extra steps it now takes to pass a bill.   A message from the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network: For every person who has cervical cancer detected early through the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP), nine others don't have the chance. We must end this divide. The NBCCEDP provides lifesaving cancer screenings in low-income communities and to uninsured and underinsured Americans, but fewer than 2 in 10 eligible people received breast or cervical cancer screenings through this critical safety net program. Increased funding for the NBCCEDP can help ensure more people get the care they need from the program and may even save states money on treatment costs when cancer is detected at earlier stages. Tell Congress to take action and prioritize health. Tell Congress to increase funding for the NBCCEDP.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   Follow us

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