🚨 Manchin's bomb

Plus: GOP books Trump | Tuesday, September 07, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By AT&T   Axios Sneak Peek By the Axios Politics team ·Sep 07, 2021 Yom tov! And welcome back to Sneak. ⚡Situational awareness: Congress is out this week. Smart Brevity™ count: 874 words ... 3.5 minutes. Edited by Margaret Talev.     1 big thing: 🚨 Scoop - Manchin's bomb Sen. Joe Manchin. Photo: Kent Nishimura/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images   Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has privately warned the White House and congressional leaders that he has specific policy objections to President Biden's $3.5 trillion social-spending dream — and he'll support as little as $1 trillion of it, Axios' Hans Nichols scoops. At most, Manchin will support $1.5 trillion, sources familiar with the discussions say. Why it matters: In a 50-50 Senate, Manchin can dictate the ceiling for Biden's "Build Back Better" agenda. That means many progressive priorities, from universal preschool to free community college, are in danger of dying this fall. Manchin also will insist on paying for any new spending with new revenue, which will limit the ultimate size of any final package. This amount would be on top of a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal passed by the Senate and awaiting House action. Between the lines: Underlying Manchin's concerns with the Democrats' $3.5 trillion budget proposal, which originated in Sen. Bernie Sanders' budget committee, are huge differences over the size of specific programs. Manchin has questioned Biden's plan to spend $400 billion for home caregivers. He's also talking about means testing (limits for the wealthy) on key proposals — including extending the enhanced Child Tax Credit, which provides up to an additional $300 per child per month, free community college, universal preschool and child care tax credits. What's next: House and Senate committees have until Sept. 15 to write specific legislation. Manchin threw cold water on the process last week with a Wall Street Journal op-ed. He argued for a "strategic pause," citing inflation and the need to preserve some fiscal headspace to respond to COVID, if the virus continues to rampage. What we're hearing: The White House still appears optimistic that a deal can be reached. Manchin was careful in his WSJ piece not to close the door to future negotiations. One source familiar with the White House's thinking told Axios: "Sanders wanted a large number and Manchin wants a smaller number and we're going to work this process to try to reach common ground." "There is a wide spectrum of opinions in the Democratic caucuses, and plenty of negotiation will take place. But we will continue to get this done, finding common ground."     2. Charted: Afghanistan wins the clicks Data: NewsWhip; Chart: Axios Visuals As natural disasters ravaged the country and Texas enacted lightning-rod abortion restrictions, Afghanistan held the vast share of online attention last week, Axios' Neal Rothschild writes from exclusive NewsWhip data. Why it matters: Democrats are banking on the Afghanistan chaos having little impact on the 2022 midterms. By the numbers: Afghanistan stories generated 6.5 times more engagement on social media than those about Hurricane Ida and its remnants in the Northeast, the second-biggest story last week. That can't be explained simply by volume of coverage. Afghanistan stories generated a per-article rate of 290 social media likes, comments or shares — compared with 54 interactions for storm stories. Eight of the top 10 stories last week came from right-wing outlets: four from the Daily Wire, two from Fox News, and one from Breitbart and Newsmax. Conservative media has been revving up audiences.     3. GOP dumps NYC retreat, adds Trump event Kevin McCarthy and Donald Trump in 2020. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images   The GOP's House campaign arm is shuffling its winter fundraising schedule, putting former President Trump in front of its top financial backers for its annual dinner, Axios' Lachlan Markay and Alayna Treene write. Why it matters: The schedule shift will lend Trump's GOP star power to the party's efforts to retake Congress next year, even as Trump himself pursues an occasionally more esoteric agenda. The NRCC told donors this afternoon that "circumstances beyond our control" forced the cancellation of its major December retreat in New York City, according to an email obtained by Axios. The fundraiser is now slated to take place Nov. 8-9 in Tampa, Florida. Sources familiar with the situation told Axios those circumstances included logistical questions regarding timing as well as lingering COVID restrictions. An hour after the email to donors, Punchbowl News reported a substitute event to be headlined by the former president.     A message from AT&T AT&T unveils 3-year commitment to narrowing the digital divide     AT&T is continuing to take on the digital divide. Here's how: The company is helping make affordable internet access a reality for families across the nation with a 3-year, $2 billion investment in broadband expansion. See how AT&T is bringing connectivity to more Americans.     4. Biden's code red President Biden tours a neighborhood today in Manville, New Jersey, that was hit by the remnants of Ida. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images   President Biden used today's visit to flood-ravaged New Jersey and New York to link recent extreme weather events with his climate agenda, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes. What he said: "The members of Congress know from their colleagues in Congress that, you know, the — what looks like a tornado — they don't call them that anymore — that hit the crops and wetlands in the middle of the country, in Iowa, in Nevada, and — I mean, it's just across the board." What he (probably) meant: Biden, speaking in Somerset County, New Jersey, was probably referring to thunderstorm complexes that contain long-lasting straight-line winds, known as derechos. They've caused billions in damage across the Midwest in recent years, particularly in Iowa, where the winds in a severe 2020 event flattened crops and damaged buildings. Later in New Jersey, the president added: "We're now living in real time what the country is going to look like if we don't do something." And in Queens: "This is code red. The nation and the world are in peril. That's not hyperbole. That is a fact." What's next: Biden confirmed what's been widely expected in climate policy circles: He plans to attend the UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow in early November.     5. Tweet du jour Via Twitter.   Watch the video.     A message from AT&T How the digital divide impacts U.S. children     Around 76% of parents and 81% of teachers remain concerned about the homework gap, according to a national survey by Morning Consult on behalf of AT&T. The reason: Children without internet access are struggling to keep up, especially as school increasingly goes online. AT&T's solution.   📬 Thanks for reading. Please let your family, friends and colleagues know they can subscribe to this or any of Axios' free newsletters by using this link. Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. 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