Axios Markets: It's Delta's fault

Plus: GM's whack-a-mole problem | Tuesday, September 07, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By Jira Service Management   Axios Markets By Kate Marino ·Sep 07, 2021 ☀️ Hope you all had a great Labor Day weekend — I know I did. 📈 Sam will be back on Markets duty starting tomorrow. 🥳 🍿 What I'm watching: Thanks for all the movie recs! At a reader's suggestion, I checked out 1985's "Brewster's Millions." It's Richard Pryor at his best, even if the premise is a bit over the top. Today's newsletter is 1,331 words, 5 minutes.     1 big thing: Deconstructing the jobs report Illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios   COVID-era economic data tends to be noisy, and problematic to interpret. But in Friday's disappointing jobs report, one thing was pretty clear: It's Delta's fault. Why it matters: In some ways, that knowledge is a good thing. "It was definitely not as much progress as we were expecting, but the silver lining is that you can pretty clearly point to the cause of the weakness," Jeremy Schwartz, director of global strategy and economics at Credit Suisse, tells Axios. "We can be confident that this isn't a trailing-off of the recovery into a new run-rate," he adds. Look no further than the weakness in restaurants and bars for proof Delta's to blame, as Axios' Courtenay Brown reported. Catch up quick: Economists had expected 750,000 new jobs created in August, and we got a measly 235,000. Between the lines: Other stats within the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Friday report showed some signs of momentum. For one thing, the "job-finding" rate, or the rate at which unemployed individuals found jobs, increased for the second month in a row. Both the June and July jobs numbers were revised up, adding a total of 134,000 additional jobs. Overall unemployment declined, to 5.2% from 5.4% Underemployment dropped by more than the headline unemployment rate, to 8.8% from 9.2%. Yes, but: Some disparities became starker in August. The unemployment rates for Black men and women both rose, while they went lower for white men and women. The pockets of increasing unemployment, combined with the lower than expected overall growth, could, on the margins, provide Congress more incentive for getting an infrastructure deal done. Seizing the moment, President Biden on Friday implored Congress to pass the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill and the $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package, walking the line between acknowledging the weak jobs report and insisting the recovery remains strong, as Axios reported. What to watch: Wages rose in August, skewed toward some of the lower paying sectors. That's a positive for income distribution, and it helps support consumer spending, Schwartz says. "Wage growth is going to be a bigger part of the story in the next three to six months," especially the extent to which it translates into price inflation, says Ed Perks, CIO of Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions. The bottom line: The disappointing report will give the Federal Reserve cover for not making a decision on tapering its market support in September. It also makes the next few jobs reports — which should begin to reflect the impact of back-to-school and the full roll-off of unemployment insurance — even more consequential, Perks notes.     2. Catch up quick Aluminum prices have surged to their highest level in 10 years as a coup in Guinea led to uncertainty over the supply of bauxite, an ore that gets processed into the metal. (Bloomberg) Boeing's largest customer outside the U.S., Ryanair, is walking away from talks for a new order of 737 MAX planes, an order that analysts were watching as an indicator for Boeing's recovery from the model's crisis. (WSJ) Senate Democrats are discussing a wide range of new tax proposals, including some that target stock buybacks, carbon emissions and executive compensation. (Bloomberg)     3. Labor movement showing signs of life Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios   Labor unions represent a larger percentage of U.S. workers than at any time in the past five years, as the pandemic took its biggest bite out of nonunionized jobs, Axios' Dan Primack writes. Why it matters: America's labor movement isn't quite resurgent, but it is showing signs of life after decades of decline. Historical reminder: Labor Day celebrates all American workers, but it was the outgrowth of organized labor marches in the late 1800s that effectively doubled as one-day strikes. It became a federal holiday 12 years after the first such march, which took place in New York City. By the numbers: In 2020, 10.8% of all wage and salaried workers were members of unions, up by 0.5% from 2019, according to government statistics. That's the highest mark since 2015 (11.%). Men were more likely than women to be in a union (11% vs. 10.5%), and the highest age cohort was 45–64 years old. Black workers (11.2%) were more likely to be union members than white (10.3%), Asian (8.8%) or Hispanic (8.5%) workers. A huge gap remains between public sector (34.8%) and private sector (6.3%) workers. Caveat: The actual number of union members fell in 2020 by over 321,000, but the decline in nonunion jobs was much steeper. What's next: The big question is whether labor unions can successfully adjust to the changing face of American work, which is becoming much more about service work than manufacturing. They still face a steep uphill climb, as evidenced by last fall's failure to unionize an Amazon warehouse in Alabama and of a ballot referendum in California to change the legal status of gig economy workers like Uber drivers. Labor may still win out in both cases, though, as the NLRB has recommended a revote by those Amazon workers and a California judge just struck down what was known as Prop 22. Plus, Starbucks is facing a rare unionization push in upstate New York.     A message from Jira Service Management Unlock high-velocity teams with Jira Service Management     Looking to optimize your service management practices? Here's how: Eliminate silos between IT, operations, development, and business teams, resolve requests and incidents fast, and push changes with ease with Jira Service Management.     4. GM's supply chain whack-a-mole GM cars in a Michigan holding lot last week. Photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images   Supply chain issues related to the Delta variant have become the latest round of "whack-a-mole" for the auto industry, Axios' Hope King writes. Catch up quick: GM is halting or continuing to halt production at eight of its North American assembly plants because of chip shortages.  The impacted plants in Indiana, Missouri, Michigan, Tennessee, Canada and Mexico are expected to be offline for a few weeks. Why it matters: The rise of the Delta variant in Southeast Asia, where many chip plants are located, could take months to resolve — impacting already-dwindling vehicle inventories, driving up consumers' costs and limiting car manufacturers' future earnings through 2023. By the numbers: U.S. light vehicle inventory is down 70% compared to two years ago, as of the end of August, Dave Whiston, U.S. autos equity analyst at Morningstar, tells Axios.  In GM's case, inventory was down 86% in August this year over August 2019. The average transaction price for a new car reached a new record $42,736 in July, according to Kelley Blue Book, up 8.2% from July 2020. Among makes, Cadillac prices grew the most — by 32.8%. Minivan (16.7%), mid-size (12.6%), and luxury full-size SUV/Crossover (12.6%) vehicle prices rose the most. What they're saying: "GM's been doing what everyone else has — taking what chip inventory they can get and putting them toward more profitable cars like pickup trucks," Whiston says. One plant where GM hasn't lost production is Arlington, Texas, which produces the GMC Yukon and Cadillac Escalade, he adds. "It's not a coincidence that it's spared." Yes, but: Even if the health crisis was resolved immediately, it would still take about six months for chips to reach automakers, Whiston says. "The chip shortage is not going to be abruptly over. It could go well into 2022 and 2023," he said. Keep reading.   Share Axios and earn rewards If you like this newsletter, your friends may, too! Refer your friends and get free Axios swag when they sign up. Be a good friend and share   5. What I'm watching this week Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios   It's a short week, but for those of us hungry for more economic data, a few nuggets will drop. For one, the BLS releases its next JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report on Wednesday. After the Friday jobs bombshell, we'll be looking for more labor market insights. This JOLTS report will cover July, so it won't neatly explain much of the Delta impact in August. But it will still shed light on key trends like hiring rates in low-wage sectors, and the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers. The Fed's Beige Book, a collection of commentary on activity in each of its districts, will also be released on Wednesday. It'll offer a more current picture, albeit anecdotal. Watch for how businesses talk about progress on hiring workers, signs of increasing supply chain stress, and insights on how wage acceleration is playing out, Schwartz says. On a different note, for crypto watchers: Today is the first day of El Salvador's great bitcoin experiment.  Bitcoin is now officially recognized as legal tender, and stores can begin accepting the exceedingly volatile digital currency as payment. What could go wrong?     A message from Jira Service Management Unlock high-velocity teams with Jira Service Management     Looking to optimize your service management practices? Here's how: Eliminate silos between IT, operations, development, and business teams, resolve requests and incidents fast, and push changes with ease with Jira Service Management.   Thanks for reading! Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. 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