Data: N.Y. Times; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios New coronavirus cases are continuing to decline, and some experts are cautiously optimistic the virus will continue to wane even into the fall and winter, Axios' Sam Baker writes. The big picture: The next few months are highly uncertain, and some localized outbreaks are all but guaranteed. But the U.S. is at least moving in the right direction again. By the numbers: The U.S. is averaging roughly 134,000 new cases per day — a 10% drop over the past two weeks. - The pace of new infections, relative to each state's population, is getting worse in 27 states and improving in 23.
Yes, but: Deaths have increased about 33% over the past two weeks, to an average of about 2,000 per day. - Deaths are a lagging indicator — the last number to go up when a new wave begins, and the last to go down when that wave recedes.
What's next: The U.S. has seen brief moments of progress before. They've never lasted long. But some experts believe the pandemic may actually keep shrinking over the next several months. - The NIH is looking at models that suggest cases may be down to about 15,000 per day by November, STAT reports. Between vaccinations and people who have already been sick, the number of Americans with some immune protection from the virus is pretty high.
- Vaccinations for kids will also help contain the virus. Children ages 5–11 could become eligible for vaccinations in the next several weeks, according to NIAID director Anthony Fauci.
The bottom line: "I hope it's true, obviously, but I can't shake a little unease I have about what could be coming," Emory University professor Natalie Dean told NPR. Share the map. |
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