Why Delta’s British invasion is fading

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Aug 06, 2021 View in browser   By Ryan Heath Presented by With help from Renuka Rayasam MAGICAL MYSTERY TOUR — When the U.K. ended one of the world's strictest Covid lockdowns on July 19 — 28 weeks long and the country's third since the pandemic began — critics feared that Covid cases would double from around 50,000 per day to 100,000 per day. The opposite happened: The numbers dropped to below 25,000 a day. Japanese and Australian cities are currently in emergency mode over much lower case numbers, but it raises the question of why more socializing in Britain has coincided with less Covid. There's no clear answer yet. Researchers are baffled. Adding to the mystery: Deaths are up, with average daily deaths doubling from 42 to 82 since the restrictions were lifted. Lisa Pickles prepares to vaccinate Ben Fleming from Halifax at a new "Pop Up" vaccination center in the Big Top of Circus Extreme in Shibden Park in Halifax, England. | Ian Forsyth/Getty Images Even so, the national mood is now "cautiously optimistic," POLITICO's London-based health reporter Ashleigh Furlong told Nightly. Herd immunity may be part of the answer. The U.K. Office of National Statistics says that when the lockdown ended, 93 percent of British adults had Covid-19 antibodies. That's mostly thanks to a successful vaccine rollout that has delivered at least one jab to 9 in 10 adults. But it's also because the U.K. has had one of the worst Covid outbreaks globally. Three other factors are contributing to the lower case numbers, Ashleigh said: — A shift to outdoor socializing in summer — A hiatus from major sporting events like Wimbledon and the Euro soccer championships, where many were mixing without a hint of social distancing even as restrictions on activities like indoor dining remained in place — The end of the school year caused a dip in testing numbers (students must regularly test while attending school), leading to a likely undercount in asymptomatic cases Brits are also disciplined isolators: Government surveys say as many as 1 in 17 people were isolating themselves at any given time over the past month, often after getting notified of a close Covid contact by the National Health Service contact tracing app. Moving forward, the British government plans to rely on "FOMO" to drive up vaccination numbers among the under-30 set. In September, nightclubs and other venues will be required to obtain proof of vaccination before letting customers in. A new government ad campaign launched today in conjunction with top nightclubs. At least one London club is serving as a walk-in vaccination center. The tactic is working in France, where a vaccine passport will be required to use transit or get into bars, restaurants and hospitals starting Monday. Vaccination numbers spiked after the plan was confirmed, causing France to jump ahead of the U.S. vaccination rate. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight's author at rheath@politico.com and on Twitter at @PoliticoRyan.   A message from AT&T: Accessible, affordable broadband helps communities reach their American Dream. That's why AT&T is making a $2 billion, 3-year commitment toward helping close the digital divide, so more low-income families have the ability to succeed. Find out how.   What'd I Miss? — Biden to extend freeze on student loan payments until Jan. 31: The Biden administration plans to extend the pause on federal student loan payments for borrowers until the end of January , an official familiar with the decision confirmed to POLITICO. The pandemic relief, which suspends monthly loan payments and interest for 40 million Americans, had been set to expire at the end of September. The Education Department plans to issue a "final" extension of the relief until Jan. 31, an official said. — Vaccine demand jumps in states pummeled by Delta: Demand for Covid-19 vaccines is rising in the states hardest hit by the Delta variant, but weary public health officials worry the renewed interest will fizzle. The number of Americans receiving a first vaccine dose each week has nearly doubled over the last month. The largest increases have come in areas where overall vaccination rates are low and hospitalizations and deaths are rising sharply. — Unions launch actions to clog Canadian border as it reopens to Americans: Canadian border agents launched work-to-rule measures today that threaten to jam traffic days before the country reopens to Americans. Union leaders representing 9,000 staffers with the Canada Border Services Agency have warned the strike actions will cause "dramatic disruptions" at airports, land crossings, commercial ports and postal facilities. The slowdowns will affect individuals and Canada's supply chain, the unions said. — Dixie Fire becomes largest single wildfire in California history: The Dixie Fire burning in two Northern California counties is now the largest single wildfire in recorded state history, exploding in size overnight as drought-stricken lands continue to fuel the flames . The fire, which has burned for 23 days and forced mass evacuations, razed the Gold Rush town of Greenville on Thursday, destroying 91 buildings and damaging five others. Smoke from the blaze has blown to lower parts of Northern California, including the state capital of Sacramento where the air quality index reached "unhealthy" levels today. — DOJ defends Biden eviction ban in court, warning of Delta threat: The Justice Department urged a federal court today to keep the Biden administration's new eviction moratorium in place to help protect Americans from becoming homeless during a resurgence of Covid-19. DOJ was responding to a lawsuit brought by the Alabama and Georgia chapters of the National Association of Realtors, who argue the CDC lacked the power to impose the ban. — Larry Elder surges to GOP fundraising lead, but Newsom still lapping recall field: Republicans vying to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom in the recall election will have to overcome an enormous fundraising gulf, but latecomer Larry Elder has quickly vaulted ahead of his GOP rivals , new campaign filings show. Elder, a longtime conservative talk show host, reported collecting nearly $4.5 million in July after declaring his candidacy last month. In mere weeks, his total eclipsed what fellow Republicans had raised in months, and daily filings show Elder has pulled in another $440,000 in the first few days of August.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     Dear Nightly DEAR NIGHTLY — Judge Renu picked two of your questions about the pandemic and answered them below. More answers are on the way. Send your questions to nightly@politico.com. We are planning to rent a house in Michigan with another family in a couple of weeks. Everyone going on the trip is vaccinated, except for my 9-year-old daughter. How much risk of getting Covid does my younger, unvaccinated daughter have? — Andy C. on vacation I feel you, Andy. Your question brings me back to the early days of the pandemic when pods and bubbles were all the rage. Except with a twist: Most of us can now get vaccines. I called Kavita Patel, a primary care doctor at Mary's Center, a community clinic in Washington, D.C., and a nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. She said she would go on such a trip herself. Your daughter's risk is substantially lower if everyone else around her is vaccinated. Still she had caveats — you didn't think it would be that easy, did you? The reality is that while Covid shots dramatically lower our risk, it will never be zero. A trip means accepting some risk. Vaccinated people can still transmit the virus. If your daughter is in any way at high-risk for Covid complications, I would rethink the trip. One other consideration: The Covid risk to your daughter is higher if you live in an area with high Covid transmission rates or are traveling to an area with lots of virus circulating. Just like the early days of Covid, it's helpful if you and the members of the other family remain extra cautious in the days leading up to the trip: Avoid crowds. Stay vigilant about masks and hand washing. If anyone has symptoms, Patel said that person should stay home. If they won't, she said she wouldn't go on the trip. Be careful during the journey itself: Wait until you get to the rental house before you take your masks off. That goes for your daughter, too. You probably hate me a little right now. A year and a half into the pandemic, it's exhausting to keep having to make these sorts of risk calculations, especially when it comes to our kids. You want a more enthusiastic, Yes, go! Have a blast! Michigan is lovely this time of year! (Or so I hear.) But I hope this comes close. My son hesitates to have his boys over the age of 12 receive a vaccine. He believes there is a possibility of the vaccine affecting the boys' reproductive systems and possible other unknown, long-lasting effects for his four sons. Are there any studies on this subject concerning the effects of the vaccine on children and how it may affect their reproductive health? — Grandpa Bill The idea that Covid vaccines affect fertility is one of the more enduring falsehoods about the shots. A few news outlets have tried to trace the origin of the myth. One found that it had roots in some evidence that women who got inoculated had heavier periods. Another theory is that it came from a false report conflating the Covid spike protein with one that's related to pregnancy. Then somehow the myth spread to male fertility. Sounds like your son got caught up in that web of misinformation either online or through his friends. Because of that fear, which has become all too common, there are now studies looking at this very topic. One July study found that Covid vaccines have no effect on sperm counts. Also there is now plenty of evidence that vaccinated people can conceive — during Pfizer's vaccine trials, 23 women volunteers got pregnant. To be clear: Doctors say there is no risk to fertility from Covid shots, but the misinformation your son has heard is prompting them to make an even more airtight case. Perhaps the most persuasive argument you can use with your son is that there is now evidence that getting Covid can be damaging to your grandsons' reproductive systems. One researcher found decreased sperm counts in some male patients who died of Covid. The researcher also found that a patient with mild virus symptoms suffered from erectile dysfunction. These are tiny studies, but they point to potential virus complications. Patel agrees it is fair to question the long-term impact of vaccines. But an mRNA vaccine doesn't linger in a person's bloodstream 24 hours after they get a shot, she points out. Instead, what remains is the natural immune response that your body produces as the result of that vaccine. At this point in the pandemic, there is mounting data that the long term effects of the virus itself are far worse than the vaccine.   A message from AT&T:   Nightly Number 2.5 percent The proportion of Covid vaccine doses that have "gone to waste" in the U.S. after expiring, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said today, calling it a "very low number." If the denominator is vaccines delivered, that means that more than 1 million doses have been discarded.   SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel.     Parting Words SOME LAUGHS, NOW WITH MORE MASKS — "Can't we all agree that it's better to spread a few jokes and laughs around instead of viruses and Covid?" So begins Matt Wuerker's latest Weekend Wrap of political satire and cartoons, including ones on the continuing fight against the Delta variant, the negotiations on the infrastructure bill and the Cuomo report coming out of New York.   A message from AT&T: Susana Chávez became valedictorian of International High School at Langley Park while juggling numerous jobs throughout school. But what kept her powering through it all was her American Dream. With the help of accessible and affordable broadband, she was able to focus on her studies, get assistance from teachers and stay in touch with her mother back home. And thanks to Access from AT&T, we can connect low-income households like Susana's, and more communities in areas we serve with their American Dream. Find out how.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   Follow us

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