Wednesday, August 4, 2021

POLITICO's Global Translations: No jab, no job

A newsletter from POLITICO that unpacks essential global news, trends, and decisions.
Aug 04, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Global Translations

By Ryan Heath

TODAY is the East Asia Summit Foreign Ministers' Meeting. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is participating along with officials from China, India, Russia, Japan, the 10 ASEAN nations, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. The meeting is designed to prep a leaders summit in October.

On Thursday, Blinken will join 26 other governments for the ASEAN Regional Forum. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin last week urged ASEAN governments to push back against China, without choosing sides between the world's two superpowers. (Fat chance.) Blinken is urging more ASEAN action against the military coup in Myanmar.

Send tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com or follow Ryan on Twitter.

BEHIND THE HEADLINES

NO JAB, NO JOB? THE VACCINE CARROTS AND STICKS WORLD IS CONFUSING

As the rich world begins to return to work, companies have a rich-world problem: whether to make vaccination compulsory, and if not, what incentives to put in place to maximize safety in the workplace.

Kaiser Permanente, one of America's largest health care providers, will require all of its physicians and employees to get vaccinated against Covid-19 by the end of September. Disney is requiring all salaried and non-union hourly employees in the U.S. to be fully vaccinated, though it's not clear why union members get different treatment. Walmart will require office workers, but not store and warehouse workers to be vaccinated, yet everything we know about Covid-19 says the retail workers face greater Covid risks because stores are high traffic indoor environments.

The Disney and Walmart approaches wouldn't pass muster with the U.K.'s Human Rights and Equality Commission, which told POLITICO that any on-the-job vaccine requirements in Britain must be proportionate, non-discriminatory and make provision for those who cannot be vaccinated for medical reasons.

(POLITICO has of this morning paused its office re-opening and will require proof of vaccination when its offices do re-open, except for those with "legally protected exemptions.")

Other companies are bypassing the tricky politics of vaccinations by instead telling unvaccinated workers they need weekly negative test results. But who will pay for those tests? In many countries, if there is no medical reason (such as symptoms) for the test, governments and insurance companies won't cover the cost. Will workers themselves have to pay? In countries where the government is paying for all Covid costs, the question becomes: why should taxpayers pay for companies to avoid a heated debate on vaccinations with their staff?

Increasingly companies and governments are turning to carrots rather than sticks.

Who has the biggest incentive of them all? Vanguard is offering $1,000 to employees. Walmart offers $150 to employees who get jabbed, up from $75 when they launched the policy. Health insurer Cigna has offered a $200 award since April. American universities are offering everything from scholarships to free parking.

Company incentives are often now larger than those offered by governments. The White House wants local governments to provide $100 payments to newly vaccinated Americans, but Washington isn't actually stumping up cash. So many U.S. states now offer incentives that the National Governors Association has published a guide : you'll find deals on tuition, vacations, hunting licenses, concert tickets and special license plates. In Ohio, California, Louisiana and Kentucky, the bait is million-dollar lotteries.

The Vaccination Rewards app compiles hundreds of vaccine incentives in one place, ranging upwards from a free donut. There's even a directory of free childcare while you recuperate from your shot.

Serbia got in on the incentive game early, offering $30 to citizens who had at least one shot by the end of May. Russia offered free ice cream — in winter. Some German towns offered a free bratwurst. The U.K. government is working with Uber and food delivery services to offer discounts aimed at tempting young people, while in Thailand you can win cows.

Cheaper insurance for the vaxxed? Behavioral economists say employers could start offering health-insurance discounts as an incentive to get a shot.

Who's not engaging: The conservative Australian government. Prime Minister Scott Morrison called a proposal by the Labor opposition party to pay residents $300 for being fully vaccinated an "insult to Australians" and a "bribe."

Marcio Jose Sanchez.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP Photo

JOIN GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS THIS WEEK: Join Ryan Heath, Karen DeYoung and Carla Robbins for this week's World Review hosted by the Chicago Council 11am ET / 10am CT. Register here.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

U.N. — A U.S.-LED COVID SUMMIT IN NEW YORK? That's what Axios reported Tuesday, but it was news to some of the leading non-profit organizations and other governments who are supposedly involved.

Gavi, the force behind the global COVAX vaccine system, has been contacted by the White House about the event, but an advocate at another global non-profit told Global Translations "we haven't been involved in the planning, sounds like it came together quickly, and we're also trying to track down more info."

The EU doesn't know anything about it, and the U.S. mission to the U.N. chose not to comment. A senior administration official told my colleague Carmen Paun that "we are still planning the President's [UNGA] schedule'' and "we are actively looking at Covid-19 and public-health centered options."

Upshot: Expect some event — possibly along the lines of the EU-organized 2020 Covid pledging summit — but cast a skeptical eye on anything branded as a "summit": most national leaders won't be physically present in New York for this year's U.N. General Assembly.

U.N. — WORLD'S BIGGEST FOOD FIGHT: U.N. officials may need their blue peacekeeping helmets in New York in September as a week-long food fight is brewing.

The U.N. thinks it's organizing a "people's summit" with a big table, aimed at greening the world's food system. But more than 300 civil society organizations — including Greenpeace and Oxfam — disagree. They have boycotted a pre-summit meeting in Rome (where the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization is headquartered) complaining about the "undue corporate influence" of "Big Food" (and no, they don't mean the Big Banana — star tourist attraction of your host's home town).

Non-profits are annoyed that the World Economic Forum and its multinational members and funders are partnering with the U.N. for the summit, and they've rallied Michael Fakhri, the U.N.'s independent special rapporteur on the right to food, to their side. The summit's critics worry about "heavy promotion of technological solutions" — sensing that companies are more interested in profiting from farmer data than solving food security issues, and are suspicious that the U.N.'s special envoy for the summit is Agnes Kalibata, president of the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa, which promotes innovation and yield maximizing to small farmers, rather than the non-GMO methods favored by some non-profits.

"The Summit is intended to kickstart a global conversation for the first time not just about crops or hunger or waste, but food systems in their entirety," Kalibata told POLITICO. "I know the trust in big business is incredibly low," said Peter Bakker , president of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, who represented the corporate voice in Rome, but he warned activists they can't change a meeting they refuse to attend. "Everyone needs to be in the room," said U.N. Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed.

CHINA — 12-YEAR SENTENCE UNDER HONG KONG SECURITY LAW: Leon Tong, an unaffiliated protester, was sentenced under parallel terrorism and secession charges.

COVID — GERMANY APPROVES BOOSTER SHOTS PLAN: German regional health chiefs signed on to Health Minister Jens Spahn's plan Monday to start offering high-risk patients a third dose in September.

COVID REALITY CHECK — U.S. VACCINE DONATIONS TOP 100 MILLION, COMMERCIAL EXPORTS STILL BLOCKED: The White House is triumphant — claiming shipments of more than 110 million Covid vaccines doses to more than 60 countries, but they're only telling one part of the story.

What the White House says: "According to the United Nations, this is more than the donations of all other countries combined and reflects the generosity of the American spirit." The White House is also a huge supporter of COVAX, the global vaccine facility.

What the donation numbers say: The European Union has donated 7.9 million doses (just 1 in 25 of the 200 million doses it has promised) and China has shipped 24.2 million, according to an internal EU document obtained by POLITICO.

What those numbers don't say: The EU has delivered around 503 million vaccine doses to 51 countries via commercial contracts, and China has exported around 390 million doses to 94 countries. Russia has exported only about 33 million doses out of a promised 800 million. The U.S. has not exported any doses via commercial contracts, because that's banned.

Left hand, right hand: The State Department said in a briefing call that Washington is a trustworthy Covid partner and cited 20 million donated doses to ASEAN countries (among a population of around 660 million, or one dose for every 33 people). A senior State Department official was unable to say anything about the Quad vaccine diplomacy initiative when asked, however, saying that "I would ask perhaps to check with the White House, which is kind of really driving this initiative." That's a billion dose-sized hole in America's vaccine diplomacy messaging based on the Quad pledge to the region.

CLIMATE — WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT METHANE: In the rush to address carbon emissions — the bulk of emissions that are causing the global climate to change — we routinely underplay the risk posed by methane, a less common but far more potent greenhouse gas.

Now, geologists have identified two methane-emitting strips of rock that are 541 million years old and hundreds of miles long in Siberia. The bad news: this methane is far more dangerous than the thawing permafrost long-deemed Russia's biggest climate risk.

DIPLOMACY — HAVANA SYNDROME INVESTIGATION DEMANDED: A group of senators led by Sens. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), unveiled legislation to streamline investigations into a mysterious brain injuries affecting hundreds of American officials and personnel around the world.The bill comes after POLITICO first reported earlier this year that U.S. officials were sounding the alarm to Congress about Americans' increasing vulnerability to these incidents, which officials have struggled to understand.

SUSTAINABLE RECOVERY SPOTLIGHT

EVICTION PRECISION SURGERY: Wanted: an anti-eviction policy courts won't slap down. Team Biden's answer was initially that states and cities needed to step in to rescue renters, but now they've proposed a 60-day eviction ban limited to U.S. counties with high rates of Covid-19 transmission. The result: Biden once again keeps progressive angst at bay.

Why it matters — eviction mess risks repeat of 2008-9 foreclosure disaster: Remember when banks got bailed out, but the people to whom they gave mortgages went under? Remember how that quietly helped fan the flames that Donald Trump whipped into an inferno? Today's eviction mess is starting to develop echoes...

Cut through all the noise and blame games and we're left with some stark numbers. Under the 2020 CARES Act, corporations were allowed to use their pandemic losses to apply for retroactive tax refunds to help them stay afloat. The cost was an estimated $88.70 billion. Today's renters who are behind in payments and facing eviction collectively owe about $20 billion.

BIDEN'S BIG ATTEMPT AT EQUITY IN AGRICULTURE HITS DEAD END: Much like the eviction ban, a $4 billion program to forgive the debts of minority farmers that was due to start in June is collapsing in the courts, under siege by conservative legal groups who have filed 13 lawsuits arguing the program is racially discriminatory. Several lawyers told POLITICO the program would likely be rejected by the Supreme Court (possibly by an 8-1 margin), if the matter gets that far.

GLOBETROTTERS

BUSINESS TRAVEL — STUCK AT A QUARTER OF PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS: Is it any wonder? It's difficult or impossible for most people to fly internationally. American companies have been especially good at transitioning to remote working; big conferences are mostly on hold; and business-class flights are an expensive luxury. Deloitte runs you through the numbers in a new study.

PASSENGERS FINED $16,000 FOR FAKE COVID TESTS AND VAX CARDS: Both passengers were Canadian citizens traveling from the U.S. to Canada, said the Canadian health authority.

THE EU'S PRESIDENTS FOR A WEEK: With six to seven weeks paid vacation as the standard for European Union officials, even for the top-ranking Commissioners, someone's got to step-in during the height of summer to run the show. It's a rotating cast of four this August, with Hungarian commissioner the unlucky soul stuck covering the Christmas shift later in the year.

MENENDEZ DEMANDS EXTRA STAFFING TO CLEAR PASSPORT BACKLOG: U.S. Senator Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, is urging Secretary of State Antony Blinken "to redouble efforts to surge resources" to reduce passport applications and renewal processing times. The problems: thousands of Americans are canceling summer holidays because they've been stranded by the backlog.

FORTUNE 500 TRENDS

— China up: China claims 143 of the 500 top spots, including 107 government-owned companies.

— Oil down: Former No. 1 Exxon Mobil dropped out of the top 20, and Saudi Arabia's Aramco lost the most profitable company crown to Apple.

— Gender meh: There are 23 female CEOs on the list, up from 14 in 2020.

BRAIN FOOD

LONG READ: Diet companies are collecting sensitive data from users of their websites and apps, but often they're not using it to tailor the products they recommend. Privacy International investigated.

ANTHOLOGY: The climate movement needs less guilting and more organizing, say Ayana Elizabeth Johnson and Katharine Wilkinson, the co-editors of "All We Can Save: Truth, Courage and Solutions for the Climate Crisis;"

BOOK: Numbers Don't Lie, by Vaclav Smil. h/t Bill Gates (free chapter here).

Thanks to editor Ben Pauker, Mari Eccles, Zosia Wanat and Gabriela Galindo.

 

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