News : POLITICO California Playbook: ELDER flowers as fall approaches — TONIGHT: GOP debate in OC — BASS for LA mayor?

Wednesday, August 4, 2021

POLITICO California Playbook: ELDER flowers as fall approaches — TONIGHT: GOP debate in OC — BASS for LA mayor? — BREED faces ethics fine

Aug 04, 2021

By Jeremy B. White, Carla Marinucci and Camryn Dadey

THE BUZZ — ELDER AT THE TOP: The Larry Elder surge can no longer be denied.

The longtime conservative radio host almost didn't make the cut, needing an eleventh-hour court order just to get on the recall ballot. But in the scant weeks since Elder jumped into the race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, it has become increasingly clear that he has seized some momentum and positioned himself as the leader of a fragmented GOP field.

Several polls in the last few weeks have put Elder on top. The quality and credibility of those tallies varies, as does the size of the lead they give Elder. But the takeaway is consistent: California conservatives appear to be coalescing behind Elder, whose years on the air have given him a recognizable name and political identity. The latest evidence came Tuesday in the form of an Emerson poll, which found Elder's lead had expanded by seven points in less than two weeks.

BACKING FROM THE BASE : Members of the Republican base have also been signaling their interest. Elder won the endorsement of the Lincoln Club of Orange County — a mainline GOP group that has been an early and regular Newsom recall funder — and the California College Republicans. San Diego Republican Carl DeMaio's Reform California outfit polled some 18,000 of its members and found a resounding 75 percent named Elder as their first choice.

None of those are scientific polls, but they indicate where the wind is blowing. This coming weekend's California Republican Party endorsement vote will offer another gauge. Although it's quite possible no one candidate will win the party blessing, getting it could mean a boost of a critical few points. Meanwhile, the money has been rolling in: Elder has collected more than $1 million since mid-July, with California Republican megadonor Geoff Palmer pitching in the $32,400 maximum this week.

You can bet Team Newsom is aware, and we're guessing a staffer or three have been assigned to listen to hundreds of hours of Elder's radio shows. We've already seen the oppo research trickling out, such as the resurfacing of a 2000 piece in which Elder argued that women "know less than men about political issues, economics, and current events." The upside of Elder's long record of on-air pronouncements is that some voters immediately embraced him; the pitfall is that he's been in the public eye long enough to have offered some questionable assertions.

THE BIGGER PICTURE: A partisan enthusiasm gap has Newsom et al confronting the real possibility that the governor could be ousted by the confluence of high Republican turnout and low Democratic participation. Huge numbers of voters remain undecided, but if Newsom is indeed recalled, his successor wouldn't need a majority win to replace him — a plurality would be good enough. That could all add up to a Gov. Larry Elder assuming office with 25 percent or less of the vote.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. It's debate night! Republican recall candidates John Cox, Kevin Faulconer, Kevin Kiley and Doug Ose are set to gather at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library and Museum in Yorba Linda tonight to make their cases for why they should be the next governor of California. Meanwhile, Team Newsom will be in court to defend including references to former President Donald Trump in the official voter guide . Follow your POLITICO California team for live updates from the scene on Twitter tonight.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit cmarinucci@politico.com or jwhite@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @cmarinucci and @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: "The ideal minimum wage is $0.00. … Why two people who are adults can't determine what the price of labor ought to be is beyond me, and why a third party feels it is his or her business to interfere with that is also beyond me." Elder in an interview with the Sac Bee Editorial board.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Newsom spox Nathan Click @ClickCA on Elder: "Chances are he will be California's Governor if Democrats don't vote NO on the recall by September 14th."

WHERE'S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president's ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

TOP TALKERS

SAN FRAN — "Mayor Breed to be fined $22,000 for series of 'significant' ethics violations while in office," by SFChronicle's Trisha Thadani: "Mayor London Breed has agreed to pay a $22,792 city fine for a series of ethics violations while in office, which involve her asking former Gov. Jerry Brown to release her brother from prison, allowing the disgraced former head of Public Works Mohammed Nuru to pay her car repair bill and failing to properly report a 2015 campaign contribution."

THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT — " The new state school mask rule doesn't faze many students. It's 'second nature' now," by LATimes' Melissa Gomez: "If past months and the first days of the new year are any indication of how students are dealing with the latest coronavirus school rule, many say they are largely over it. They have adjusted to the discomfort and would much rather be in school with their friends than at home on a computer."

— "Jane Fonda explored recall run amid concerns about Newsom's vulnerability," by the SF Chronicle's Tal Kopan and Dustin Gardiner.

FOR LIFE — "Warriors' Steph Curry agrees to 4-year, $215 million contract extension," by SFChronicle's Connor Letourneau.

CAMPAIGN MODE

RECALL MONEY — "Newsom has commanding financial advantage in California recall," by POLITICO's Jeremy B. White: The California Democrat has benefited from a lack of donation limits — an unusual advantage that accrues to recall-targeted incumbents — to pile up $25 million from January through June and at least another $19 million since.

— "Recall election: Conservative radio host Larry Elder on Gavin Newsom, COVID and whether Trump lost in 2020," by East Bay News' Emily DeRuy.

BASS FOR LA MAYOR? — "Karen Bass signals openness to Los Angeles mayoral run," by WaPo's Sean Sullivan: "One significant factor in her thinking will be whether Mark Ridley-Thomas, a close friend and Los Angeles City Council member, decides to run, the people familiar with her thinking said."

DA OUT — "Lagging in fundraising, Sacramento DA candidate dropping out of race, sources say," by SacBee's Sam Stanton: "Paris Coleman, one of three announced candidates to replace Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert, has told people he is dropping out of the race, sources say."

AG RACE — "California Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta leads challengers in campaign cash, buoyed by reformers," by LATimes' Patrick McGreevy: "Bonta's attorney general campaign reported raising $1.6 million in contributions since he was appointed this year by Gov. Gavin Newsom to become the state's top cop, according to a financial disclosure report he filed Monday. He also has an additional $2.2 million in an Assembly campaign account that he can use for the statewide contest, a spokesman said."

— House Dem campaign chief warns the majority at risk without message reboot , by POLITICO's Sarah Ferris and Heather Caygle: During a closed-door lunch last week with some of his most vulnerable incumbents, House Democrats' campaign chief delivered a blunt warning: If the midterms were held now, they would lose the majority.

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CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

MEGATRENDS — "From a housing crisis to a fire crisis: San Francisco's exodus led many to a new conundrum," by SFChronicle's Susie Neilson and Nami Sumida: "Frustrated by the high cost of living in urban areas, freed from in-person work requirements and enticed by the prospect of owning a bigger home — or just owning a home at all — many Californians are moving away from cities like San Francisco and Oakland, and into small towns like Nevada City and its neighbor, Grass Valley."

FLY FIRE LIABILITY? "PG&E says its equipment possibly linked to another fire," by AP.

MASKLASH — "'I am vaccinated and that should be enough:' Bay Area expresses anger, sadness and relief over renewed mask mandates," by SFChronicle's Annie Vainshtein: "Though not necessarily a surprise to many Bay Area residents who have been tracking the spread of the highly contagious delta variant of the coronavirus around the region, the restrictions incited a disconcerting déjà vu to bleaker times."

— "L.A. County took steps early to combat Delta variant. We should know soon if it worked," by the LATimes' Lila Seidman, Maura Dolan and Alex Wigglesworth: "The question is whether the mask mandate can help slow the new surge. L.A. County should be among the first to get data back. Here is what we know.""

— " Marin is the most vaccinated county in California, but cases are surging in one community. Here's why," by SFChronicle's Kellie Hwang.

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

— "Harris to promote 'America is back' message in Singapore and Vietnam," by CNN's Betsy Klein: "Harris' chief spokesperson, Symone Sanders, said in a statement announcing the trip that the vice president will 'engage the leaders of both governments on issues of mutual interest,' noting that regional security, the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change will be areas of discussion."

SILICON VALLEYLAND

PROP 22 REDUX — "Uber, Lyft and Others Propose Gig Work Measure in Massachusetts," by Bloomberg's Josh Eidelson: "Under the proposal, which the company-backed Massachusetts Coalition for Independent Work plans to file Wednesday, ride-hail and delivery app drivers would be promised perks such as health-care stipends, but their employment status as contractors would be enshrined in state law."

— "Uber Requires Nondisclosure Agreement Before Helping Carjacked Driver," by Markup's Dara Kerr: "Five months after he was carjacked while driving for Uber, resulting in thousands of dollars in damage to his car, David Morrow finally received an offer of assistance from the company: $1,000, the amount of his insurance deductible. But there was a catch—Morrow would need to sign a nondisclosure agreement promising to not sue Uber, disparage the company, or talk any further about his carjacking or the details of his settlement."

HOLLYWOODLAND

— "Disneyland has a new annual pass program. Here's everything you need to know," by LATimes' Hugo Martín: "The Disneyland Resort has overhauled its 37-year-old annual pass program to help reduce crowding on high-demand days, replacing it with a program that will require visitors to make reservations before going to the theme parks, while continuing to block out access on the busiest days."

MIXTAPE

— "Missing runner case: Police say they found body they believe is Philip Kreycik," by SFChronicle's Chase DiFeliciantonio and Lauren Hernández.

— " UC retirement systems delays pensions to California retirees," by SacBee's Katherine Swartz.

— "Community colleges offer cash, textbooks to students who get vaccinated," by CalMatters' Emma Hall and Matthew Reagan.

— " Lake Tahoe is filled with trash. I went diving with the crew whose mission is to clean it up," by SFChronicle's Gregory Thomas.

— "Why Southern California is a new EV mecca, with Rivian, Lordstown, and Karma in Irvine," by OCRegister's Jeff Collins.

— "Yes, it's legal for restaurants and bars to require proof of vaccination for customers. Here's why," by SFChronicle's Janelle Bitker.

— "Low grades? No problem. New California law allows high school students to change them," by SFChronicle's Jill Tucker.

IN MEMORIAM: — "Pete Schabarum, L.A. County supervisor and father of California's term limits, dies at 92," by LATimes' Jean Merl.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this subscriber-only service offers, click here.

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