Axios World: Breaking... U.S. out of Afghanistan

Plus: What Taliban rule will look like | Monday, August 30, 2021

Open in app View in browser   Presented By the Long-Term Stock Exchange   Axios World By Dave Lawler ·Aug 30, 2021 Welcome back to Axios World. We're starting tonight (1,821 words, 7 minutes) with the big, breaking news: After 20 years, America's war in Afghanistan is over. Personal note: I rarely spend so many editions focusing on one subject. I hope you've found our coverage of Afghanistan helpful over the past few weeks. We've got more variety coming your way soon. New arrival? Subscribe.     1 big thing: America is out of Afghanistan Taliban fighters watch a U.S. C-17 depart. Photo: Marcus Yam/LA Times via Getty   The final U.S. military flights have left Kabul, marking the end of a 20-year war and of the efforts to airlift thousands of U.S. citizens and vulnerable Afghans as the country fell to the Taliban. The last flight out left at 3:29pm ET, or 11:59pm on Monday night in Kabul, ahead of President Biden's Aug. 31 deadline. The evacuation of U.S. civilians ended about 12 hours earlier, CENTCOM Commander Gen. Kenneth McKenzie said, with up to 250 Americans and thousands of Afghan allies still attempting to flee the country. What they're saying: "There's a lot of heartbreak associated with this departure. We did not get everybody out that we wanted to get out," McKenzie said. He added that not everyone would have gotten out even if the deadline was extended. "Every single U.S. service member is now out of Afghanistan," McKenzie noted. "We continued the outreach and would have been prepared to bring them on until the very last minute but none of them made it to the airport and were able to be accommodated," McKenzie said of the remaining Americans. Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid tweeted: "The last American occupier withdrew... at 12 o'clock and our country gained its full independence, praise and gratitude be to God." State of play: The U.S. facilitated the evacuation of 123,000 people, including over 5,000 Americans, in what McKenzie called the largest civilian evacuation mission ever executed by the U.S. military. The airport had come under attack in the final days of the operation, increasing the urgency of the withdrawal. The U.S. conducted two drone strikes over the weekend following Thursday's ISIS-K attack at the airport. The Pentagon said the first killed two people associated with ISIS-K, the terrorist group's affiliate in Afghanistan, and the second thwarted an imminent suicide attack. The second strike, on Sunday, allegedly killed 10 Afghan civilians including seven children, the NYT reports. The drone strikes may validate President Biden's claim that the U.S. will be able to conduct "over the horizon" strikes on terror suspects in Afghanistan, but also underscores the difficulties inherent in such missions. Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby wouldn't identify any of the ISIS-K targets or confirm the reports of civilian casualties. Multiple rockets were also fired at the airport overnight but didn't cause any casualties. What's next: McKenzie said the efforts to evacuate the remaining Americans had now moved to the "diplomatic realm." The United States, along with 97 other countries, announced Sunday that they had reached an agreement with the Taliban to allow them to continue to get their citizens and Afghan allies out of the country after Aug. 31. Biden said part of his aim in meeting the deadline was to "secure the prospects of civilian departures" going forward — a nod to the need for cooperation with the Taliban. He'll address the country tomorrow. McKenzie said the Taliban had been "pragmatic and businesslike" in the final hours of the U.S. operation. The militant group will now take control of the airport. Prior to the announcement, a notice went out to pilots that flights transiting through Kabul would be traveling in "uncontrolled airspace." Celebratory gunfire rang out in Kabul after the U.S. withdrawal ended.     2. What comes next A boy sells Taliban flags in Kabul. Photo: Hoshang Hashimi/AFP via Getty   With their victory now complete, it's time for the Taliban to decide how to run the country. The big pictures: The militants are offering vague assurances that they have changed with the times, while foreign powers are assessing what leverage they have to hold the insurgents-turned-rulers to those promises. The U.S. will have no influence on the formation of the next government, a senior U.S. official tells Axios, but the Taliban's clear desire to avoid sanctions and cultivate normal relations does provide leverage. State of play: Taliban spokespeople have offered a blanket amnesty, yet there are reports of reprisals against people who supported the ousted government or foreign forces. They have said girls can go to school, women can go to work (once the current unrest subsides) and journalists can hold them to account — all within still-to-be-defined limitations. They've said they'll establish an Islamic system, but not how it will be governed or who will lead it. It's also unclear to what extent any moves toward moderation by the group's leaders — many of whom spent years in exile after their overthrow in 2001 — will filter down to the rank and file. One clear challenge will be funding. Under the ousted government, foreign aid had accounted for 75% of the government's budget and some 40% of GDP. That's now on hold. The U.S. also froze over $9 billion in central bank assets after the Taliban takeover. That sets the U.S. and other foreign powers up for a difficult balancing act: withhold funding to press the Taliban to respect the rights of women and minorities, without contributing to an economic collapse.     3. The view from Kabul Celebratory gunfire after the U.S. exit. Photo: AFP via Getty   "Now that we're face to face with each other, it's going to take time to get through this transition and reconcile — really, to see each other as human," says Obaidullah Baheer, a lecturer in transitional justice at the American University of Afghanistan, who elected to stay in Kabul even as friends and colleagues fled. His initial interactions with Taliban fighters have been civil, despite his Western clothing, but he's aware of multiple instances of arbitrary beatings. "These people who are now in control of Kabul are people who have not experienced governance, but have only fought, for a good 20 years. And that obviously has a huge impact on the psyche and the group behavior as well," he says. The Taliban already held much of rural Afghanistan prior to the recent offensive, and in some ways "out-governed the government" by providing limited services and swift, if brutal, justice, Baheer says. Most young, educated Afghans in major cities saw the insurgents as barbarians at the gate. After they entered Kabul, though, Baheer saw a silver lining: After so many years of war, there would be peace. "That, too, is not an absolute," he says, reflecting on the airport attacks. "We will have to see in the coming days as to whether the Taliban can contain the security situation or make it better." What's next: Baheer has advised students who think they'll be unsafe under the Taliban to leave, but all others to stay. "This country is going to need educated people if it has any chance of surviving," he says. The latest headlines: The U.S. service members who died in the Kabul blast The refugee crisis grows more dire Diplomats won't remain in Kabul     A message from the Long-Term Stock Exchange The Long-Term Stock Exchange announces its first listings     Asana and Twilio are launching their listings on LTSE, becoming the first to choose a new exchange focused on elevating governance. LTSE's listing standards give companies a framework to thrive in the public markets through stronger governance and investor alliances. View the listing launch.     Bonus: Where in the world Photo: Screengrab via Apple Maps   Today, we're visiting the world's largest inland body of water and making stops at two nearby capital cities. One (purple pin) is the largest city in the world that lies below sea level. The other (red pin) is far larger, with a metropolitan population of 16 million. Can you name the cities and the body of water? For bonus points, how about the five countries that border it? Hints: The body of water is known for oil and for caviar. There is no color in its name — that would be the other body of water, in the top left of the image. Scroll to the bottom for the answer.     4. Global news roundup: Beijing adds time limits to gaming Players practice the mobile game "Arena of Valor" in a shopping mall in Tianjin, China. Photo: Zhang Peng/LightRocket via Getty Images   1. Minors in China will be limited to three hours of online gaming per week, from 8pm to 9pm on Fridays, Saturdays, Sundays and holidays. The government will monitor gaming companies to ensure they comply as Beijing tries to fight gaming addiction and promote "correct values." 2. Five weeks after ousting Tunisia's government, President Kais Saied has offered no clarity as to when he will appoint a new prime minister, how long he plans to utilize his emergency powers, and how he intends to reform the country's constitution. Saied still appears to have the support of the public. But it's unclear what this all means for Tunisia's fledgling democracy. 3. Iraq hosted a rare summit of regional rivals on Saturday. Top officials from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Turkey, Egypt, Kuwait and Jordan all attended. Just convening the summit was a major achievement for Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi, though it appeared to be more significant in terms of symbolism than substance. 4. South Sudan's government greeted news of planned protests today as President Salva Kiir inaugurated a new government by sending troops into the street and throttling the internet.     5. Lebanon's crisis just keeps getting worse Waiting for gas in Beirut. Photo: Fadel Itani/NurPhoto via Getty   Lebanon is running out of just about everything. The Lebanese pound has lost 90% of its value since last 2019, and foreign currency reserves are dwindling. The stories are staggering. A taxi driver still waiting in line for fuel after two days. Elderly people living through days of August heat without even an hour of air conditioning. Hospitals having to suspend chemotherapy treatment, or ask patients to bring their own medication. Even many bakeries have been unable to operate, leading to bread shortages. 77% of households in Lebanon can't afford enough food, per the UN. Driving the news: Lebanon's central bank announced on Aug. 11 that fuel subsidies had become unsustainable, causing prices to rise by 66% and the economic meltdown to speed up. Some fuel importers or distributors are hoarding gasoline, expecting prices to rise further, or selling it on the black market. With the power grid hardly functioning, the country is unable to pump or transport enough drinking water, leaving 70% of the population at risk of running out. Hezbollah has said it will bring in Iranian oil to ease the crisis, potentially putting the country at risk of U.S. sanctions. What to watch: Lebanon needs a government, but squabbling between political factions has led to a prolonged deadlock. The political elite is notoriously corrupt and widely loathed.     6. Coming attractions: Zelensky meets Biden Zelensky. Photo: Stefanie Loos/Pool/Getty Images   Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will get his White House visit this week after an awkward start to relations with President Biden. Flashback: He publicly called on Biden to meet with him before he met Vladimir Putin in June, then announced they'd agree to meet in July. The meeting is finally set for Wednesday. Zelensky has also slammed Biden's approach on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline (including in an interview with Axios). The Biden administration cut a deal with Germany that will allow the pipeline to proceed, with some assurances for Ukraine's energy security. What to watch: A source close to Zelensky says the Ukrainians will continue to push Biden to change his approach to the pipeline: "We're not going sweep this under the rug."     7. Stories we're watching Harvesting tobacco in Indonesia. Photo: Robertus Pudyanto/Getty Images   North Korea restarts nuclear reactor Supreme Court lets "Remain in Mexico" ruling stand Vietnam's lockdown hits apparel industry hard Delivery by drone in Australia Kerry to China to talk coal Covid roundup: Singapore hits 80% vaccination; Cases rise in India; Israel gives kids boosters; Origin report inconclusive. Ronaldo rejoins Man United Quoted: "I've never seen this intensity of anger on the campaign trail or in Canada, not when I was a kid, even with my dad visiting out West, where we did see anger, certainly not in my last 12 years as a politician." — Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Protesters who oppose his vaccination policies have interrupted his rallies and forced one to be canceled over the weekend.     A message from the Long-Term Stock Exchange The Long-Term Stock Exchange announces its first listings     Asana and Twilio are launching their listings on LTSE, becoming the first to choose a new exchange focused on elevating governance. LTSE's listing standards give companies a framework to thrive in the public markets through stronger governance and investor alliances. View the listing launch.   Answers: Caspian Sea, Baku (purple pin) and Tehran (red pin). Azerbaijan, Iran, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Russia. Like this email style and format? Learn more about Axios HQ. It'll help you deliver employee communications more effectively.   Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here. Sponsorship has no influence on editorial content. Axios, 3100 Clarendon B‌lvd, Suite 1300, Arlington VA 22201   You received this email because you signed up for newsletters from Axios. Change your preferences or unsubscribe here.   Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get Axios in your inbox.   Follow Axios on social media: