| | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Happy July 5th! We hope you enjoyed family and fireworks yesterday, and we hope you did so at a barbecue while ignoring the advice in JOSH BARRO's misguided anti-grilling piece that has lit up the internet. It's a holiday and we were out way too late at the rooftop party of a well-known Playbooker who says she's been SPOTTED too many times recently, so we won't name her here. But enjoy this light edition of Playbook that, if we're being honest, was mostly put together by our saintly editor Mike Zapler. A few revelatory reads to highlight: — POLITICO economics reporter Megan Cassella explores a question we've been curious about: Will the good times for lower-wage workers — $1,000 bonuses to work at McDonald's, $15 an hour (or more) for many service industry jobs — roll? Short answer: It doesn't look like it. "One reason for skepticism is that rising wages — the most measurable sign of workers' new power — have recently been largely centered in high-turnover industries like leisure and hospitality. While average hourly earnings for all non-supervisory employees rose 0.9 percent over the past two months, they climbed 3.5 percent for workers in leisure and hospitality, who were among the hardest hit by the pandemic lockdowns, Labor Department data released Friday shows. Turnover in that industry is nearly double the average annual rate. "'There have been wage raises, but they're one-off wage raises,' said Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist now with the Jain Family Institute. 'And these are in industries that have a massive amount of turnover. So you don't have to hire them back in at the higher wage, and you certainly don't have to give another wage rate bump next year.' "Economists expect the labor market to stabilize by the fall, when enhanced federal job benefits in all states are set to end and after schools reopen, easing pressure on parents who have stayed home to take care of their kids. By then, too, the long-term unemployed will have had more time to ease back into the labor market and find a job that fits, and fears of the virus may have faded further. That's expected to trigger a rush back to work for millions of unemployed Americans — at which point businesses will no longer be forced to compete for staff." The story — NYT's Alex Burns considers what-might-have-been in a different era in American politics — with one party's leader's business empire under indictment and the other's presiding over a successful recovery from a nightmare pandemic. "Yet there is little confidence in either party that voters are about to swing behind Mr. Biden and his allies en masse, no matter how many events appear to align in his favor," he writes. "Democratic strategists see that as no fault of Mr. Biden's, but merely the frustrating reality of political competition these days: The president — any president — might be able to chip away at voters' skepticism of his party or their cynicism about Washington, but he cannot engineer a broad realignment in the public mood." | | | | A message from PhRMA: Out-of-pocket costs shouldn't be out-of-this-world confusing. If we fix insurance, we can fix out-of-pocket medicine costs. See how. | | | — WaPo's Mike DeBonis turns up a few newsy nuggets in a curtain-raiser for the next few months in Congress: "[W]hile the House and Senate budget committees typically produce their own budget resolutions, that is unlikely to happen this year. Instead, according to lawmakers and aides, the budget resolution is more likely to be the product of backroom bargaining overseen by Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), in consultation with Sanders and Yarmuth, before being sent directly to the Senate floor. There it will be subject to a grueling amendment process before it is sent to the House for final approval." And: "A push to close a key gap in the Affordable Care Act by securing coverage for millions who live in states that have refused to expand their Medicaid programs is now under strong consideration due to pressure from lawmakers in the affected states — such as Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Tex.), a liberal House Budget Committee member, who said that many such disputes are being waged largely out of public view." Good Monday morning, a federal holiday, and thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. | | | | A message from PhRMA:   The way insurance covers your medicine is too complicated. See how we can make the system work for patients. Not the other way around. | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY — The president has nothing on his public schedule. KAMALA HARRIS' MONDAY — The VP is in Los Angeles and has nothing on her public schedule. THE SENATE will meet at 2:30 p.m. in a pro forma session. THE HOUSE is out. BIDEN'S WEEK AHEAD: — Tuesday: The president will get a pandemic/vaccinations briefing and deliver remarks on the subject. — Wednesday: Biden will travel to Crystal Lake, Ill., to tout the American Families Plan. | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO WEST WING PLAYBOOK: Add West Wing Playbook to keep up with the power players, latest policy developments and intriguing whispers percolating inside the West Wing and across the highest levels of the Cabinet. 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PHOTO OF THE DAY: Crowds gather on the National Mall to watch fireworks on July 4, in Washington, D.C. | Samuel Corum/Getty Images | WHITE HOUSE FOURTH OF JULY SPEECH — "Celebrating nation's birth, Biden urges Americans to help end COVID-19 pandemic," Reuters: "'This year, the Fourth of July is a day of special celebration for we are emerging from the darkness of ... a year of pandemic and isolation, a year of pain, fear and heartbreaking loss,' Biden told a White House party opened to around 1,000 people, including military families and workers involved in the COVID-19 response. … "Biden mourned the people who died, praised Americans who aided in the country's emergency response and said vaccines were the best defense against new variants of the virus. 'It's the most patriotic thing you can do,' he said of getting vaccinated. But his administration was also eager to celebrate what it sees as its signature accomplishment - restoring some normality." — Photos from around the city, via WaPo INFRASTRUCTURE YEAR ON THE GROUND — The British newspaper The Telegraph is running an in-depth three-part series on the state of American infrastructure, and Jamie Johnson has the first dispatch from Lake Charles, La.: "Crumbling America: Meet Louisiana's climate-change refugees": "It's the bloodied carcasses of five-foot alligators, laying by the side of the busy highway that you notice first. Face down, with their green, horned scales protruding into the air, or splayed on their backs showing their bright white stomachs, all of them were hit by cars just before they could slide into the water lapping up at the edge of the road. With higher temperatures, eggs are hatching faster. … "Hundreds of thousands of people have become climate refugees in their own state, moving to higher ground … If this was Delaware or Rhode Island, America would have one fewer state. … Nearly seven per cent of residents moved out of the area in 2020 - an exodus outnumbering any other place in the US. … While critics point to a lack of investment in resilient infrastructure, state officials say they are facing an uphill battle against nature." HOW IT MIGHT PLAY — "Infrastructure success could help keep swing Pa. districts — and the U.S. House — blue," by NBC's Adam Edelman: "Reps. Susan Wild … and Matt Cartwright … are banking on the passage of Biden's revised, bipartisan infrastructure plan, which would bring critical projects and jobs to their districts that the lawmakers, as well as political strategists, say will bolster their chances at keeping the seats … "In the 8th District, [the American Jobs Plan] would likely include a substantial upgrade to the district's beleaguered sewer and drainage systems, whose faultiness has played a role in increasingly frequent and devastating flooding in the region. In the 7th, it would likely include an expansion of broadband access to the rural areas of the district. In both, it would likely include improvements to roads, tunnels, bridges and, most notably, the possible construction of long-talked-about Amtrak passenger lines that would connect, separately, both Scranton and Allentown to New York." POLITICS ROUNDUP THE NEW GOP — "Why Republicans Condemn Marjorie Taylor Greene, But Not Paul Gosar," by Ben Jacobs in N.Y. Mag: "[H]is association with [Nick] Fuentes has put him in a category of his own even by the standards of the far-right Trumpist wing of the GOP. One Republican operative who has previously worked with Gosar's team said he was shocked by the congressman's recent embrace of extremists. 'I don't know what the fuck is happening,' he said, calling him an 'incredibly smart member.' Almost as befuddling is that House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy has yet to even chastise Gosar for his repeated associations with the extreme fringes. "McCarthy's office has not responded to requests for comment from Intelligencer on Gosar going back to February. That's a change from McCarthy's past practice as leader. … One reason for the quiet is that Republicans haven't been forced to play defense on Gosar like they recently were over Greene. While her comments drove news cycles and [Steve] King became a national figure, Gosar flies under the radar of the national media. Part of this is chance … But it is also because Democrats have remained relatively quiet." POLL OF THE DAY — "Gov. Abbott rebounds against possible challenger Matthew McConaughey, has razor-thin edge over actor," Dallas Morning News' Robert Garrett | | | | A message from PhRMA:   Let's make out-of-pocket costs transparent, predictable and affordable. See how. | | | POLICY CORNER HOW FAR WILL HE GO? — "Biden's new dilemma: How to slash housing costs for low-income borrowers," by Katy O'Donnell: "President Joe Biden's move to fire the top U.S. mortgage regulator is triggering calls from fellow Democrats to use the agency to expand access to loans for lower-income people, who have struggled to buy homes since the financial crisis. That's setting up a clash with Republicans over how far the government should go in shaping an industry that makes up one-fifth of the U.S. economy." RACIAL RECKONING — "'Rampant issues': Black farmers are still left out at USDA," by Ximena Bustillo: "The Biden administration is trying to make up for decades of racial discrimination in U.S. farm assistance by forgiving loans to farmers of color. But Black farmers and their advocates say that plan, while welcome, won't fix the ongoing problem: Agriculture Department programs are still biased against them. "The agency granted loans to only 37 percent of Black applicants last year in one program that helps farmers pay for land, equipment and repairs but accepted 71 percent of applications from white farmers, according to a POLITICO analysis of USDA data. In a grant program to help producers weather the coronavirus pandemic, farmers of color received less than one percent of the payments even though they are five percent of all U.S. farmers." AMERICA AND THE WORLD PULLOUT FALLOUT — "Nine Districts Fall to Taliban as Fighting Continues," by ToloNews' Tamim Hamid: "Sources said on Sunday that the centers of nine more districts were captured by the Taliban in the last 24 hours – six districts in Badakhshan, one in Kandahar, one in Paktika and one in Takhar." — "Left Behind: Portraits of American Allies," by CBS' Patricia Guerra and Sheena Samu with photographs by Roya Heydari: "60 Minutes+ spoke to some of those translators left behind for an upcoming project. These are their stories. … Though President Biden stated that no Afghan ally will be left behind, no real action has been taken to secure their extraction. … Several interpreters we spoke to say they feel forgotten." BUT, BUT, BUT … "Pentagon Seeks to Soften Blow of U.S. Withdrawal From Afghanistan," by NYT's Eric Schmitt: "Keeping the top commander in the country longer is part of an effort to reassure Afghans as the Taliban step up their offensive." JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH THAT WAS FAST — "6 months after Capitol assault, corporate pledges fall flat," by AP's David Klepper: "Dozens of big companies, citing their commitment to democracy, pledged to avoid donating money to the 147 lawmakers who objected to Congress' certification of Joe Biden's victory … It was a striking gesture by some of the most familiar names in business but, as it turns out, it was largely an empty one. … "When it comes to seeking political influence through corporate giving, business as usual is back, if it ever left. … The companies contend that donating directly to a candidate is not the same as giving to a PAC that supports them. Given America's porous campaign finance laws, that's a distinction without a difference to campaign finance experts. … Walmart's moral stand lasted three months." TRUMP CARDS MORE WEISSELBERG DOCS ANALYSIS — "Prosecutors say spreadsheets from Trump Organization offer a road map for its indictment. Where the investigation goes now is the question," by WaPo's David Fahrenthold, Jonathan O'Connell, Shayna Jacobs and Josh Dawsey: "Yet Thursday's indictment left many questions unanswered. Will anyone else be charged? Has the investigation narrowed to tax evasion alone? What about other topics that prosecutors earlier indicated in court filings they were investigating? "Still, legal experts say, the spreadsheets described on Thursday — and the narrow tax-evasion case they support — could cast a long shadow over former president Donald Trump and his company. Prosecutors have long indicated their desire to persuade Weisselberg, people with knowledge of the case have said, to 'flip' … And experts said the spreadsheets — at least as described by prosecutors — made the case against Weisselberg sound daunting for him." GO-GETTRS — "Pro-Trump social media app hacked on launch day as half million sign up," Reuters: "A social media site launched on Sunday by Jason Miller, a senior adviser to former U.S. President Donald Trump, was briefly hacked, and more than 500,000 people have registered to use the site, Miller said." MEDIAWATCH FOX PALACE INTRIGUE — "Mark Levin, the Fox News host who won't stop criticizing other Fox News personalities," by WaPo's Jeremy Barr: "The host of a weekly show, Levin singularly lobs insults at his colleagues — mostly Fox's news reporters and anchors, but also recently a fellow opinion host — in a manner that has created negative headlines and headaches in the process. … "Levin's willingness to dump on his own colleagues has burnished his reputation as a sort of rogue independent who balks at the governing rules of the corporate media ecosystem — and a wild card who could end up playing a big role in the future of the conservative movement." LAST NIGHT ON '60 MINUTES' — "Ken Burns on America, selling his first film, PBS's long deadlines and more," CBS: "The filmmaker known for his exhaustive documentaries on American subjects gives Scott Pelley a glimpse into how his films are made, the message he wants to convey with them and how he became the person he is today." DESSERT SECRETS TO A SUCCESSFUL MARRIAGE — "Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter talk about what 75 years of love accomplishes," Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "It is a mark so rare that the U.S. Census Bureau doesn't keep statistics on how many couples make it that far. But only 6% of married couples make it to even 50 years. The Carters are the longest-married presidential couple in U.S. history … "President Carter: 'We try to forgive each other every night for any differences we may have had during the day. We try to read the Bible every day. Most of the time late in the evening. And we try to reconcile and never go to sleep with any lingering argument.' Mrs. Carter: 'Jimmy is really kind and he will hold out his hand, take my hand when we are walking down the street or sitting in the car. Squeeze my hand. Those kinds of things draw me closer to him.'" | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TODAY: Power is shifting in Washington and in communities across the country. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. The Recast is a twice-weekly newsletter that explores the changing power dynamics in Washington and breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics and policy in America. Get fresh insights, scoops and dispatches on this crucial intersection from across the country and hear critical new voices that challenge business as usual. Don't miss out, SUBSCRIBE . Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | SHOW TUNES AND UFOs — Sunday evening, we stopped by philanthropist ADRIENNE ARSHT's home for an Independence Day dinner and concert — it's a big place — organized by the American Pops Orchestra. Noah Canales and Rita Castagna, two brilliant young singers, entertained the crowd of ambassadors and journalists with a setlist that included "I Can Cook Too," "You Do Something to Me," "Light of a Clear Blue Morning," "Feeling Good," and a stirring rendition of "America the Beautiful." One highlight of the night, aside from the enormous spread of pies, was chatting with former Sen. Bill Nelson , now the head of NASA, and hearing him talk about the recent UFO report — he's convinced life is out there somewhere — and the forthcoming launch of the James Webb Space Telescope. It will study the history of the universe and hunt out other solar systems that might have Earth-like planets that could support life. SPOTTED: Mari Carmen Aponte, Jorge Argüello and Erika Grinberg, Nestor Forster, Andrea Mitchell and Alan Greenspan, Jim and Kathy French, Lloyd and Ann Hand, Jim and Diane Jones, Mary Jordan and Kevin Sullivan, Fred Kempe and Pamela Meyer, Stavros Lambrinidis and Phoebe Kapouano, Alfonso and Gabriela Quiñónez, Olivia Nuzzi, Laura Liswood, Doug Lute and Kamryn Lute, Marco Margheri and Gael de Schaetzen, Jason Marczak, Capricia and Rob Marshall, Kathy and Andy McLeod, Bill and Grace Nelson, Teague and Andie Pastel, Barry Pavel, Robert Pullen and Luke Frazier, Philip Rucker, Gabriel Sanchez-Zinny, Francisco Santos and Maria Victoria Garcia, Daniel Silva and Jamie Gangel, Marilyn Wald and Fareed Yaseen. ENGAGED — Max Glass, campaign manager for Jeff Jackson's North Carolina Senate bid, proposed to Mollie Binotto, campaign manager for New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy's reelect, in the Pocono Mountains on Saturday night during the fireworks. They met while Max was managing legislative races in New Jersey and Mollie was managing Dawn Zimmer's mayoral race in Hoboken. Pic WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Gabby Orr, a reporter at CNN and a POLITICO alum, and Caleb Orr, senior policy adviser to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), welcomed Patricia "Poppy" Jean Orr on Friday. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) (7-0) … Reps. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Darin LaHood (R-Ill.) … Hannah MacInnis … former Rep. John Fleming (R-La.), now at the McKeon Group (7-0) … Ben Ray … NYT's David Sanger … Mike Stranz … Michael LaRosa of the first lady's office … Laura Peavey of the House Financial Services GOP … Kerry Picket … Mike Manatos of Manatos & Manatos … Walt Cronkite of FTI Consulting … Daniel McCarthy … POLITICO's Zack Colman and Julia Norwood … ABC's Alisa Wiersema … Steve McMillin … Barb Barrett of Pew's Stateline … CSIS' Beverly Kirk … Erica Morrison … NBC's Julie Shapiro … Qualcomm's Angela Baker … former Reps. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) and David Dreier (R-Calif.) … Steve Rattner of Willett Advisors … John Lawrence … Julie Nixon Eisenhower Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross. | | | | A message from PhRMA: Getting to what you pay for medicines shouldn't be a maze. Let's make out-of-pocket costs transparent, predictable and affordable. And let's do it without sacrificing access to medicines and innovation. See how we can make the system work for patients. Not the other way around. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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