| | | | | |  | | By Alexander Ward | | | With Quint Forgey and help from Daniel Lippman, Andrew Desiderio, and Nahal Toosi Welcome to the first edition of National Security Daily, POLITICO's newsletter on the global events roiling Washington and keeping the administration up at night. I'm Alex Ward, a national security reporter at POLITICO and your guide to who's up, who's down, and what's happening inside the Pentagon, NSC, and D.C.'s foreign policy machine. National Security Daily will arrive in your inbox Monday through Friday by 4 p.m.; subscribe here. Tips, comments, hate mail at award@politico.com, @alexbward or likely at some bar in Washington. When it comes to the battlefield, officials in Washington and Kabul don't deny that the Taliban currently has the momentum. But as for what that means for the Biden administration's diplomacy-first approach to ending the war, right now the jury is still out. "Their position, given the developments of the past several weeks, is stronger than it was before," ZALMAY KHALILZAD, the U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan, told NatSec Daily in reference to gains by the hardline insurgents. By some estimates, the Taliban has captured 200 districts — many of them in the government's northern power center — since May 1. Khalilzad should know: He's been leading peace talks — centered in Doha, Qatar — for months. "It's not surprising that with the reduction, or almost complete withdrawal of U.S. forces that was on the side of the Afghan government, that they would make some progress," Khalilzad continued. "They have made more progress, perhaps, with the reduction and withdrawal [than] one could have analytically predicted." That troubling reality is more problematic considering diplomacy between Kabul, its allies, and the Taliban hasn't really moved forward much. "I would've liked to see a lot more progress," Khalilzad said. Just hours after our interview, the negotiating parties released a joint declaration stating they aim to accelerate talks and keep them at a senior level, though it's unclear the Taliban will stay true to their word. Someone in Doha familiar with the talks told NatSec Daily the Taliban requested both sides release 3,000 prisoners in a swap and also offered an Eid ceasefire. The pro-government faction couldn't agree to that in the room, but they did relay the proposal back to Kabul. Future U.S.-Afghanistan relations remain undetermined. Khalilzad urged the Taliban to make peace at the negotiating table and not take over by force. Should the Taliban opt solely for violence, the U.S. and many of its partners won't recognize the new government or render assistance, effectively turning a Taliban-led Afghanistan into a pariah state. What the special envoy couldn't detail is how the U.S. would engage with a future Afghan government should it feature Taliban members after striking a deal. He didn't say "yes" when NatSec Daily asked if the U.S. might provide economic support to Kabul then, but he didn't say "no," either. "We haven't decided as to what we will do because we don't know what the future government, if there is an agreement, whether it meets the standard that enables us to provide assistance," he said. "But in principle, of course, the United States would like to have a good relationship with Afghanistan." U.S. withdrawal making peace with the Taliban "harder." NatSec Daily also spoke with HAMDULLAH MOHIB , the current Afghan national security adviser and former ambassador to the U.S. He insisted his government was ready to push back hard against the Taliban with the resources at their disposal. But he didn't mince words when asked if foreign troops leaving made getting to yes with the Taliban more difficult. "It definitely has made it harder to make peace with the Taliban because they believe in their own narrative, and their narrative is that of victory," Mohib said. "But it has also created an opportunity for Afghans to take control of our own affairs in the way that is more sustainable to Afghanistan." On the military side, Mohib is cautiously optimistic. "We're getting close to a stalemate where any further progress would be difficult for the Taliban," he said, noting the Taliban has struggled to overtake cities and has lost some areas it recently took over. "We're working to stabilize this current situation and then and then go on the offensive." As for diplomacy, the national security adviser is less sanguine. "We so far have not seen any concrete moves from the Taliban towards peace. They have wasted time. They've made excuses, they have used the peace process as a way to advance their military agenda. They have not delivered on substantial points that would get us closer to peace in Afghanistan," Mohib told NatSec Daily. Twenty years of U.S. and foreign military engagement didn't lead to peace in Afghanistan, which is partly why the Biden administration pulled the plug on the military-first campaign. But so far the diplomacy-centered effort isn't yet leading to a better outcome. | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
The F-35 delivers the unrivaled advantage for our pilots, nation, and partners. A decisive differentiator in near-peer warfare, the F-35 is the most advanced node in 21st century warfare network-centric architecture. Learn More | | | | | | WHO'S THE BOSS: NATO is in search of a successor to Secretary-General JENS STOLTENBERG, and three women are at the top of the list of prospective candidates, reports DAVID HERSZENHORN: former presidents KOLINDA GRABAR-KITAROVIC of Croatia and DALIA GRYBAUSKAITE of Lithuania; and current Estonian President KERSTI KALJULAID. Full details here. ISRAELI SPYWARE SUBVERTS DEMOCRACY: The weekend's big story was how a consortium of worldwide outlets found Pegasus spyware from the Israeli firm NSO on the smartphones of 37 journalists, hundreds of human rights advocates and many others, including two women close to murdered Saudi dissident and journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI. While NSO firmly denies the reporting , it seems like the 17 media outlets and Amnesty International got the goods after interviews and research on four continents. The spyware from Israel, a democratic country, is seemingly harming democratic efforts in more authoritarian nations. "Among the 37 phones confirmed to have been targeted, 10 were in India and another five in Hungary, most linked to journalists, activists or businesspeople," the Washington Post wrote. For the moment, there's no indication as to how the Biden administration will respond, if at all. Amnesty to NSO: "Stop selling" your spyware: NatSec Daily chatted with Amnesty International's DANNA INGLETON , the deputy director of Amnesty Tech who led the project on their end. She blasted NSO for denying the reporting, saying, "They claim that they have no knowledge of what their clients do with their spyware, and yet assert that their technology was in no way involved with the killing of Jamal Khashoggi." Ingleton continued: "There is overwhelming evidence that NSO spyware is being systematically used for repression and other human rights violations. NSO Group must immediately stop selling its equipment to governments with a track record of abusing human rights." U.S. AND ALLIES PUNISH CHINA FOR HACKING: The U.S. and its allies fingered the Chinese government as the culprit for a slew of cyberattacks, including the hack of Microsoft's email servers in March. Shortly thereafter, the Justice Department charged four Chinese nationals (three of whom are government agents) for a hacking campaign to steal Ebola-vaccine research and IP from dozens of American and foreign companies. POLITICO's ERIC GELLER : "Chinese cyberattacks usually focus on stealing intellectual property from Western businesses so that Chinese companies can analyze and copy it. But the Ministry of State Security's partnerships with profit-minded criminals may reflect a new strategy for Beijing. 'The use of criminal contract hackers … was really eye-opening and surprising for us,' the senior administration official told reporters." A small split opened up between Washington and Brussels: The Biden administration blamed the Chinese government for the hacking campaigns while the EU didn't, which said "these malicious cyber activities to have been undertaken from the territory of China." That could mean both sides are mostly united in their rhetoric, but far apart in how they'll respond. Asked today why he hadn't hit China with sanctions yet, President JOE BIDEN told reporters: "They're still determining exactly what happened. The investigation is not finished." FIRST AFGHAN SIVs COMING TO VIRGINIA: POLITICO's ANDREW DESIDERIO confirmed CBS News' report that the first batch of Afghans awaiting a special immigrant visa to the U.S. will stay temporarily at Fort Lee, Va. These Afghans helped the U.S. government during the 20-year war and will safely reside at the military installation until they complete the visa process. The Biden administration faces immense pressure from Republicans and Democrats to get the thousands of Afghan partners and their families to safety before the Taliban gets to them first. Biden announced that evacuation flights would begin later this month. BIDEN'S REFUGEE LOW? Biden could wind up admitting the fewest-ever number of refugees to the United States in a given year, below even the Donald Trump era, according to analysis by the International Rescue Committee. So far this fiscal year, 4,780 refugees have reached U.S. soil. At this same point in Trump's last fiscal year, 7,754 refugees had reached the U.S., the IRC told my colleague NAHAL TOOSI. (These numbers do not count Afghan interpreters and others being processed through the separate Special Immigrant Visa program.) A combination of factors has led to this point, including: the coronavirus pandemic; the results of Trump's effort to dismantle the refugee program; what critics say are overly onerous security checks; and Biden's own slow, confusing deliberations on rebuilding refugee admissions. The numbers admitted fell to a historic low during Trump's final fiscal year, when 11,814 refugees reached America. Trump had lowered the cap on the number of refugees who could come to 15,000, also a record low. Biden has pledged to lift that cap to 125,000, but he's been unusually cautious in doing so. He initially resisted lifting the official cap to 62,500 for this fiscal year, but did so after blowback from fellow Democrats. No one expected the program to be able to admit 62,500 by the end of this fiscal year. Still, the low number of refugees admitted so far suggests rebuilding the program will take more time than advocates hoped. WELCOME TO NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY. Thanks for tuning in to POLITICO's newsletter on the national security politics roiling Washington. NatSec Daily is for the top US and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts, and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage is made. Thanks for reading this far, please share with your colleagues and friends, and drop me a line at award@politico.com or follow @alexbward on Twitter. IF YOU'VE BEEN A REGULAR READER OF MORNING DEFENSE, FEAR NOT: Morning D is now turbo-charged and better than ever, coming at Pro subscribers bright and early every a.m. Get more intel and sign up here. With industry scoops, breaking Pentagon news, and new reporters covering acquisitions and influence, you can't afford to miss it. | | | HAITI'S PRIME MINISTER STEPS DOWN: Haiti's minister for elections tells The New York Times' CATHERINE PORTER in a text message that CLAUDE JOSEPH — the interim prime minister who took charge of the country after President JOVENEL MOÏSE's assassination — is relinquishing government control. According to the elections chief, Joseph is stepping down in "favor of ARIEL HENRY," whom the late Moïse unilaterally tapped as prime minister just a day before his death. The power shift comes after the so-called Core Group of international diplomats threw their support behind Henry to form a government over the weekend. Despite the political turmoil, Biden said last week that sending U.S. troops to Haiti to help stabilize the country was "not on the agenda." BIDEN BEGINS GITMO TRANSFERS: Biden's Pentagon has transferred its first detainee from the U.S. military prison at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba — repatriating ABDUL LATIF NASIR to his native country of Morocco this morning, our own QUINT FORGEY reports. Now 39 detainees remain at the controversial facility. Of that number, 10 have been recommended for transfer, 17 are eligible for a review, 10 are involved in the military commissions process, and two have been convicted, per a senior administration official. Reminder: White House press secretary JEN PSAKI said in February that the administration was working toward a full closure of the Guantanamo Bay prison by the end of Biden's term. NEW IRAN SANCTIONS: WSJ reports the U.S. is weighing new sanctions on Iran — this time on its oil sales to China — as a way to get it back to the negotiating table on America's reentry into the nuclear deal. As U.S. officials told WSJ, "The new steps would take place if nuclear talks fail. … The plan would involve the aggressive enforcement of current sanctions already banning dealings with Iran's oil and shipping industry through new designations or legal actions." | | | |   | | | | | | SPYWARE SCANDAL FALLOUT IN EUROPE: The latest revelations about Israeli spyware and smartphone hacking are coming at an awkward time for the European Union, as policymakers across the bloc keep up their push for access to people's encrypted messages, per POLITICO's VINCENT MANANCOURT and MARK SCOTT. Tech companies and privacy advocates have long warned that if you allow some agencies access to encrypted information, it'll open the door for authoritarian regimes and other nefarious actors. Now, the NSO scandal could mark a major blow against governments' arguments that they should be given backdoors into people's devices to fight crime and terrorism. | | | LOCKHEED BIGGEST DONOR TO GOP OBJECTORS: JUDD LEGUM and REBECCA CROSBY over at Popular Information report that Lockheed Martin, in the first half of this year, gave money to 53 Republicans who voted to overturn the election on Jan. 6. "The defense contractor has donated to more GOP objectors than any other major company, according to an analysis of new FEC filings," overtaking Toyota, they write. "Thus far in 2021, Lockheed's nonpartisanship has included $77,500 in donations to more than one-third of the Republicans who validated Trump's lies about election fraud by refusing to certify the Electoral College results." After Ja. 6, Lockheed was among many companies who suspended their corporate PAC contributions, but last week announced those donations could resume "to observe long-standing principles of nonpartisan political engagement in support of our business interests." Of course, Lockheed gives money to Democrats, too, such as Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) and Sen. ROBERT MENENDEZ (D-N.J.). BIDEN STRUGGLING TO FIND TOP WEAPONS BUYER: Our own PAUL MCLEARY and CONNOR O'BRIEN scooped on Friday that the Pentagon is facing vacancies in its office that oversees the purchasing and development of weapons. The gap — created when MIKE BROWN withdrew his nomination and STACY CUMMINGS announced she was leaving — means the White House needs to get its act in gear, Defense News' JOE GOULD and ANDREW EVERSDEN followed up. | | | HOUSE FOREIGN BUDGET HELD OVER FEAR OF CAUCUS: Multiple Congressional sources tell NatSec Daily the FY22 State and Foreign Ops budget didn't make it into the House minibus . One reason, they say, is House leadership was concerned progressives — like members of the Squad — might object to the SFOPS bill for continuing to provide support to Israel. Another reason mentioned is moderates were uneasy about aid to Palestinians. Not including SFOPS in the minibus gives leadership more time to get Democrats in line, sources said. But this serves as another data point in the intra-Democratic Party fight over Israeli-Palestinian policy. | | | NUCLEAR FUNDING DRIES UP: Our BRYAN BENDER reports that the MacArthur Foundation, which has given millions to nuclear-disarmament think tanks in town, is getting out of the nuke business. Business, shall we say, won't be booming anymore. "It's a big blow for the field," said JOAN ROHLFING, president and COO of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonprofit organization dedicated to stemming the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction that has been one of the largest recipients of MacArthur's grants. "It is moving in the opposite direction of the needs of the community right now." SCOOP: QUINCY REPORT ON MIDDLE EASTERN INTERVENTIONS: The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft's MATTHEW PETTI and TRITA PARSI will release "No Clean Hands: Middle Eastern Powers' Interventions, 2010-2020" on Monday afternoon. NatSec Daily obtained an early copy of the reporting featuring a qualitative look at how often Middle Eastern nations, including U.S. allies, intervene abroad. It turns out Israel, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and, yes, Iran do it more than you think. "Five of the six most interventionist states in the Middle East are armed and supported by the United States," Parsi told NatSec Daily. "That's an opportunity" to get them to stop, he said, "because we have the leverage." | | | FIRST IN NATIONAL SECURITY DAILY: POLITICO's DANIEL LIPPMAN reports that NADINE NALLY is now the director for defense innovation and cyber policy at the National Security Council. She recently graduated from the Eisenhower School where she had a fellowship that prepares select military officers and civilians for strategic leadership and success in developing and executing national security strategy. She also most recently was a dual-hatted Commander of the 781st Military Intelligence Battalion (Cyber) and Task Force ONE within the Cyber National Mission Force at USCYBERCOM. ANOTHER LIPPMAN NUGGET: MAX PRIMORAC has joined the board of CODESPA America, a 501c3 nonprofit that works to combat poverty in the Americas and Caribbean through entrepreneurship. He is the former chief assistant to the acting deputy administrator at USAID. | | | Politico Magazine: "The Last Commander." U.S. News and World Report: "No Do-Overs in Afghanistan: The U.S. Cannot Re-Enter Once It Leaves." DAVID IGNATIUS, Washington Post: "Mustafa al-Kadhimi's government in Iraq has a long way to go. But at least it's a start." | | A message from Lockheed Martin: Unrivaled.
Information is the battlespace advantage. F-35 sensor fusion provides vast amounts of information to accelerate critical decisions and win the fight. Learn More | | | | | | — BIDEN'S SECOND-EVER CABINET MEETING: It'll be the president's first session with his department heads to take place in the White House Cabinet Room. — HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE, 10 a.m.: Full Committee Hearing: "Non-Governmental Views on the Fiscal Year 2022 Department of Defense Budget" — HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE, 10 a.m.: Subcommittee on Western Hemisphere, Civilian Security, Migration and International Economic Policy: "Historic Protests in Cuba and the Crackdown on Free Expression" — THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL, 10:15 a.m.: A conversation with leader of the democratic opposition in Belarus Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL, 12 p.m.: Future Foreign Policy series featuring Ben Rhodes — HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE, 12 p.m.: Subcommittee on Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber Hearing: "The New Transatlantic Trade Agenda: China, Climate, and COVID-19" — THE WASHINGTON SPACE BUSINESS ROUNDTABLE, 1 p.m.: NRO's Vision for Protecting America's National Security and Opportunities for Partnering with Commercial Space Sector — HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE, 2 p.m.: Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: "The Findings and Recommendations of the Independent Review Commission on Sexual Assault in the Military" — HOUSE FOREIGN AFFAIRS COMMITTEE, 2 p.m.: Subcommittees on Asia, the Pacific, Central Asia, and Nonproliferation, and Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber Hearing: "U.S.-European Cooperation on China and the Broader Indo-Pacific" — THE HERITAGE FOUNDATION, 2 p.m.: Why Colombia's Violent Protests Matter to the United States | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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