Friday, May 7, 2021

What should the National Space Council tackle next? — New bill being drafted to protect space assets — The Space Force says it’s going fully digital

Delivered every Friday, POLITICO Space examines the policies and personalities shaping the second space age.
May 07, 2021 View in browser
 
2018 Newsletter Logo: Politico Space

By Bryan Bender

Quick Fix

Q&A: An outline for space continuity from Donald Trump's top policy guru.

New legislation is in the works to declare space critical infrastructure . But what assets should count?

The Space Force lays out its vision to be the first fully digital military branch.

WELCOME TO POLITICO SPACE, our must-read briefing on the policies and personalities shaping the new space age in Washington and beyond. Email us at bbender@politico.com with tips, pitches and feedback, and find us on Twitter at @bryandbender. And don't forget to check out POLITICO's astropolitics page for articles, Q&As, and more.

Space Spotlight

The Space Shuttle Discovery is the back drop as then-Vice President Mike Pence chairs the 6th meeting of the National Space Council on

The Space Shuttle Discovery is the back drop as then-Vice President Mike Pence chairs the 6th meeting of the National Space Council on "Leading the Next Frontier" at the National Air and Space Museum, Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center, on Aug. 20, 2019 in Chantilly, Va. | Getty Images

PICKING UP THE PACE: Now that the National Space Council has been relaunched and will be chaired by Vice President Kamala Harris, what should be at the top of the agenda?

We asked Scott Pace, the executive secretary of the Cabinet-level body during the Trump administration, how to sustain the bipartisan momentum and even accelerate it. His top action items include deciding the future of the International Space Station; reconceiving NASA's Human Landing System for the moon mission (now bogged down over a pair of protests over its sole selection of SpaceX); drafting and implementing sorely needed plans for tracking and limiting space debris; and leveraging the boom in commercial Earth observation satellites.

The 'post-ISS world': "It is important now to be planning for what comes next," Pace, who has returned to his perch as director of George Washington University's Space Policy Institute and is also consulting for space industry clients, told us this week. "Space things take a long time. We need to keep our international partnerships going, growing them hopefully. The current ISS agreements run out in 2024 and need to be renewed, but we also need to work on what a post-ISS world will look like."

'Very dangerous': "Funding for the Human Landing System is a big deal," he also says. "There are a lot of reasons why it was probably premature to down-select to one. This is not a criticism at all of SpaceX, which put forward a very ambitious and very good proposal as far as I can tell. But we don't know enough at this point. There's lots of reasons for keeping two or more. This is especially true if we are going to have public-private partnerships."

Why is the bar higher for such an arrangement? "With that comes a requirement that you have competition, or you have a strong government alternative," Pace explained. "If you are going to pick only one commercial entity, then the government has to have a lot of capability in-house and maybe even some parallel tracking to make sure if something goes wrong the government can step in and make sure the mission is accomplished. If you have two strong technically qualified teams, then the government role can be one of more oversight. It is very dangerous to go to just one. I understand how NASA probably got to that decision with the money they have. I think the Congress should be asked to increase funding for HLS."

'The work needs to start." Trump signed a space policy directive in 2018 to establish in the Commerce Department what Pace describes as "an open architecture data repository" for tracking satellites and other spacecraft to ensure they don't collide in orbit and cause untold financial and environmental damage. But debates in Congress over whether Commerce is the right agency to oversee the task slowed the effort.

"All it would take is a major accident, particularly on the commercial side," Pace said. "People will be wondering, 'wait a minute, we were supposed to be fixing this. Did we gather enough information, was there enough warning?' It is not a policy question at this point. It is a matter of implementation.

"Funding needs to happen," he added, "but Commerce itself needs to move out. This is an area that I think is needing some increasing attention. Those contracts need to be in place. The work needs to start."

A new strategy: Another area where Pace said the Trump team ran out of time was tackling how to manage — and take fuller advantage of — the range of new commercial space technologies that can monitor environmental activity on Earth. The Trump administration released new industry regs last year, but did not complete plans for a government-wide strategy.

"We really haven't put together a comprehensive Earth remote sensing strategy across the military, commercial, international and scientific sectors," Pace said. "We really haven't talked about how to take advantage of commercial offerings. We really haven't talked about how we might work more with international partners and what they offer."

Overall, however, Pace is bullish about the prospects for genuine continuity in space policy, which traditionally gets upended in a change of administrations. He cited one lesser appreciated example: "We nominated Doreen Bogdan-Martin to run for the office of head of the International Telecommunication Union Development Bureau and she won," he recounted. "The first American in a top five position at the ITU since 1994; first woman in that position ever. And she has now been nominated by this administration to run for the secretary general's job of the ITU. The current secretary general is Chinese. He is term-limited out. Her competitor is a Russian."

The international organization, he said, "has a big, big impact on space for developing countries, for our own industry."

'A window of opportunity': Harris' plans to put her "personal stamp" on the National Space Council, such as cybersecurity in space and fueling more STEM education, "make a ton of sense," Pace added. But much of the bipartisan agenda is already well established. "President Trump provided an opportunity by creating the council and saying space is important for the country," Pace said. "He opened a window of opportunity and others were able to come through to make positive changes. I very much appreciate the continuity and bipartisan approach the Biden-Harris administration has been taking to date in space."

Related: The Biden administration likely retaining Trump doctrine on cybersecurity in space, via NextGov.

In Orbit

UNWRITTEN RULES: One space insider quipped this week that Congress has a serious discussion about space security about once every five or 10 years. And the latest one appears to have taken place on Wednesday, when the House Armed Services' Strategic Forces and International Development, International Organizations Subcommittees held a joint hearing on "Creating a Framework for Rules Based Order in Space."

One major takeaway: There is bipartisan support for engaging with allies and adversaries alike to identify norms of behavior, both binding and not, in a domain where national sovereignty doesn't exist and international agreements on how to behave are limited and largely toothless.

Rep. Darrell Issa, the California Republican, addressed it as a rhetorical question. "Isn't it fair to say that we must go forward and establish those international rules, draw in as many convention signers — including potential bad actors — as possible, but also form those alliances that would mimic in space if necessary the same sort of alliances that have in fact kept us relatively peaceful for the last 70-plus years? Don't we sort of have to do all of them?"

But how to police them? Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton, who called such an approach a "goal worth pursuing," was skeptical. "Without effective enforcement," he said, "rules and norms obviously limit our own activity in space but do nothing to impede malign activity by our adversaries. If we do not intend to enforce the 'voluntary, non-legally binding' rules, or expect our adversaries to abide by norms in space, what happens when they violate them?"

A hard sell: Indeed, so far the Russians and even more so the Chinese, are not buying anyway. "We do engage with China on outer space through both bilateral and multilateral channels," Jonathan Moore, principal deputy assistant secretary of State for the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs, told the subcommittees. "Our primary goal is to ensure spaceflight safety and responsible behavior in outer space. We've been working to try to improve communications between our respective satellite operators, to avoid potential collisions and prevent radio frequency interference between navigation satellites," and "we're trying to encourage interoperability for several users."

"Results," he added, "have certainly not been consistent or satisfactory."

'We are just at the beginning': But what would those norms be, anyway? "We are just at the beginning of this process to start to define what some of these norms of behavior are," Bruce Turner of the State Department's Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, testified. "We hope to define such things as how much [distance] to leave between bodies out in space and how one might approach them. There would be communications, there would be notifications, a number of things like that. We are just at the beginning of this process right now."

'SPACE IS NOT ONE OF THEM': As for how space security fits in the U.S. government hierarchy? No one is exactly sure.

Rep. Ted Lieu, an Air Force reservist, said during the hearing he is working on legislation to try to clear things up by designating space as critical infrastructure, thus elevating it in government planning and presumably freeing up more resources to protect space assets.

"The reason there is some confusion is there's approximately 16 critical infrastructure sectors, such as the chemical sector, the communications sector, the energy sector," the California Democrat said. "Space is not one of them. However, if there is for example a space communications satellite, that would arguably be captured within the communications sector. To alleviate this confusion and capture everything in space, I'm working on legislation that would in fact designate space as a critical infrastructure sector."

'If not everything, then what?' Brian Weeden, director of program planning at the Secure World Foundation, cautioned that it might not make sense to include everything. For example, he asks, are communications satellites that broadcast the Super Bowl critical infrastructure? Those used by first responders need to be, or weather satellites, certainly might be.

Another thorny issue relates to military systems, even if they are also used by civilians, particularly GPS. "It's a military warfighting capability," he told us. "It raises the question, 'why have we decided to build our society [so] critically dependent on this military warfighting capability that is a legit military target?'"

But if it doesn't make sense to pursue a blanket declaration of space as critical infrastructure, what should count? "If not everything, then what?" Weeden said. "That is the key question here."

Related: Why space is not part of Biden's infrastructure plan, via Newsweek.

Top Doc

PAPERLESS: The Space Force on Thursday released its "Vision for a Digital Service," laying out its strategy for becoming the first fully digital military branch.

That doesn't just mean fully connecting the 16,000 guardians and the service's commands. "We must become a Digital Service quickly and on a broad scale, and not only across our own enterprise, but also creating connections with allies and industry," the document highlights. "By enticing new and forward-thinking companies to work with the USSF and smartly increasing our usage of commercial data for mission activities, we can collectively achieve capabilities far surpassing those we could generate alone."

Making Moves

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson this week named Susie Perez Quinn, one of his longtime Senate aides who was most recently director of government relations at the National Governors Association, to be his chief of staff, the agency announced this week.

WATCH: Nelson, who was sworn in Monday, also released a welcome video to NASA staff.

TRIVIA

Congratulations to Michael Ravnitsky, a space enthusiast in Silver Spring, Md., who was the first to correctly answer that Pioneer 10 was the first man-made object to pass through the Asteroid Belt and the Voyager 1 probe was the first to exit our solar system.

THIS WEEK'S QUESTION: Another two-parter: What did Albert Einstein's father give him when he was five years old that changed his life? And what enlightenment thinker most shaped Einstein's philosophical views of the universe?

The first person to email bbender@politico.com gets bragging rights and a shoutout in the next newsletter!

Reading Room

Falling uncontrolled from space, giant Chinese rocket highlights risk of orbital debris: Scientific American

Boeing, NASA target July 30 for 2nd test flight of Starliner capsule: Space.com

SpaceX lands Mars rocket prototype for the first time: CNN Business

Starlink satellite internet service gets 500,000 preorders, Musk says: Reuters

Blue Origin to fly first people on New Shepard in July: Space News

A NASA spacecraft just 'touched ' the outer layer of the sun: Futurist

Scientists claim to spot fungus growing on Mars: Futurist

U.S. Air Force to investigate aborted ICBM test flight: Space News

Plans for a new Space National Guard close to liftoff, top general says: POLITICO

— ICYMI: Interview with Space Force Gen. Jay Raymond, chief of space operations: The Washington Post

Europe's Galileo braces for more emergency in-orbit maneuvers: Space News

Latin America looks to space, despite limitations on ground: The Associated Press

Satellite-navigation systems such as GPS are at risk of jamming: The Economist

How the space fantasy became banal: The Atlantic— 'I lived with the astronauts': Popular Mechanics

Let's take down the menace to our space dreams: The Space Review

We're polluting our future home – before we even live there: World Economic Forum

— BOOK REVIEW: A 'Right Stuff' for our moment of space travel: The New York Times

Event Horizon

TODAY: The House Defense Appropriations Subcommittee holds a hearing on the Air Force and Space Force budget at noon.

TODAY: The Space Foundation holds its National Space Day symposium beginning at noon.

MONDAY: Watch NASA's asteroid sample return mission begin its two-year journey home at 4 pm.

MONDAY: The Space Force Association holds a discussion with Col. John "P.Y." Thien, commander of Space Delta 3 at 1 pm.

TUESDAY: NASA and Northrop Grumman hold a briefing on the James Webb Space Telescope at 1 pm.

THURSDAY: The Space Court Foundation holds a seminar titled "Competing for Space Superiority: Arms Racing, Rivalries and Hype in Space" starting at 11 a.m.

 

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