The head of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Kaplan: we'll start talking about a rollback sooner rather than later:
The unemployment rate will fall this year;
U.S. GDP will grow 6.5% this year, upside risks prevail;
Some factors contribute to inflation in the short term, but their impact will fade within 12 months;
PCE will grow 2.25% this year, we will monitor the situation;
Since December we have seen the results of vaccinations and a new aid program has been enacted;
Wouldn't want to start winding down prematurely, but wouldn't want to be too late either;
Buying Fed bonds could lead to imbalances;
The economy will be healthier when we start winding down QE;
We are announcing the winding down of purchases in advance and will do so gradually;
It is still difficult to say whether we will complete the rollback before the Fed raises rates;
The conditions necessary for a rate hike will be met in 2022.
Our Analysis:
Provided that the currency pair is traded below 0.9100, follow the recommendations below:
- Time frame: 30 min
- Recommendation: short position
- Entry point: 0.9074
- Take Profit 1: 0.9045
- Take Profit 2: 0.9030
Alternative scenario:
In case of breakout of the level 0.9100, follow the recommendations below:
- Time frame: 30 min
- Recommendation: long position
- Entry point: 0.9100
- Take Profit 1: 0.9120
- Take Profit 2: 0.9145
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