Friday, May 7, 2021

The mystery of the missing jobs

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POLITICO Nightly logo

By Renuka Rayasam

Presented by Facebook

With help from Myah Ward

Nightly video talk with Renuka Rayasam and Ben White

THE 266,000 QUESTION — This morning's April employment report held a shocking number: The country created about 266,000 jobs last month, about the quarter of the number that economists had expected. President Joe Biden tried to put a positive spin on the report later in the day, arguing that the economy was back on track, but also saying that the numbers are evidence that more stimulus is needed. Nightly asked chief economics correspondent Ben White to explain this morning's report and tell us what's ahead for jobs this summer in three minutes or less . As Ben says, "The question is, Is it an outlier, or is it a real indication that the pace of jobs coming back from the Covid hit is slowing down considerably?"

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Heading into the weekend like Rob Gronkowski on a slide (h/t to our new Massachusetts Playbook author Lisa Kashinsky). Reach out with news, tips and ideas for us at rrayasam@politico.com, or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

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First In Nightly

Illustration of Elon Musk

GARY GENSLER'S PRE-'SNL' READING — "The loathing Musk inspires from the left is uniquely intense and personal, not unlike that directed toward his fellow techno-optimists in the Democratic Party like Andrew Yang and Pete Buttigieg. Musk shares their cardinal sin: that of cringe, an obliviousness toward, or unwillingness to acknowledge, the tastemakers who define pop culture at its highest level — which increasingly includes policy positions, like police abolition or massive wealth redistribution. Musk has remained stubbornly committed to a brash and vague tech-bro libertarianism that was already wearing out its welcome among cultural elites in 2011, and seems fully retrograde in the world of 2021. And his arc as a public figure serves as a neat lesson in how and where the battle lines of our current culture wars came to be drawn." From Derek Robertson's "How the Internet Turned on Elon Musk," coming this weekend in POLITICO Magazine

 

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What'd I Miss?

— California population drops for first time in state history: California's population declined in 2020 for the first time in the state's recorded history due to Covid-19 deaths, federal immigration restrictions and declining births, state officials announced today. The nation's most populous state lost more than 180,000 people between January 2020 and January 2021, a decline of 0.46 percent, according to data released by the state Department of Finance. This was the first time California experienced an annual drop since the state began recording such data in 1900, according to Finance spokesperson H.D. Palmer.

Internal study highlights struggle over control of America's special ops: The study, which has not been previously reported, is being conducted by Joint Special Operations University, the academic arm of U.S. Special Operations Command. The plan is to review arguments for and against establishing a separate military branch for the special operations community, according to a slide deck dated March 21 and reviewed by POLITICO.

— Virginia gubernatorial candidates push 'election integrity' in major post-Trump contest: The first statewide Republican nominating contest since Trump left office has added a new issue to the top tier of traditional GOP campaign messages: "election integrity." All four of the leading Republican candidates for this weekend's "unassembled convention," where Republican delegates will vote for their nominee at 39 sites around the state, are talking about election and voting rules on the trail and in ads, with some putting forth detailed plans for how they would change Virginia's election rules.

— Keisha Lance Bottoms exits Atlanta's mayoral race: Bottoms said this morning that she would not seek a second term as Atlanta's mayor, citing the tumultuous last four years. Bottoms alerted staffers and allies of her plans to exit the race on Thursday evening in a call first reported by the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

 

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Nightly Interview

'THEY HAVE TO GO FASTER' — Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.) is one of only four Indian Americans currently in Congress. Elected in 2016, he's been pushing the Biden administration for weeks to deliver vaccines and other supplies to India.

In 2000, only two South Asian Americans ran for Congress, according to FiveThirtyEight. That rose to about 40 in the last couple of election cycles. And, Krishnamoorthi told Nightly, "The administration has about 20 senior officials of Indian heritage or South Asian heritage, including the vice president."

Nightly's Renuka Rayasam spoke with Krishnamoorthi today about the rise of South Asian political power in the U.S. and whether the administration is doing enough to help India. This conversation has been edited.

Are you in touch with the Biden administration about Covid aid to India?

We have been in regular contact with the administration. There are a lot of people in the administration who get it. But there are a lot of people who are overly cautious on this particular issue. They're worried about the technicalities associated with the agreements with pharmaceutical companies, and even some are concerned about maybe not having enough vaccine down the road.

They've started to make moves in the right direction. Honestly, they have to go faster. Why would we jeopardize the incredible progress we've made with vaccines here by allowing this five-alarm fire to rage? If there's anywhere where you could have a mutation that could potentially defeat a vaccine, it could be there. Nobody's talking about not getting our own citizenry vaccinated.

How do you feel about the Biden administration's ban on travelers from India?

We have to defer to the CDC on this particular issue. That being said, it has to be uniformly applied across all countries. There should be some criteria that are set, not only for triggering a travel ban, but also for lifting the travel ban. A lot of my constituents and others are contacting us and saying, "We had plans to receive grandma, our grandfather and now we are very, very afraid for their safety and we don't know when we're going to be able to bring him or her."

Do you have family in India? How are they doing?

A lot of our family has unfortunately had Covid already or has Covid now. Fortunately, the elderly relatives have been somewhat segregated from everyone else in the family. They have kind of locked themselves down. One of our friends lost 10 family members. Another lost a brother, sister-in-law and younger daughter — all to Covid.

I've been to a lot of parties where the Aunties and Uncles love to argue about Trump or Biden. But I'm not sure if they actually vote.

I find that fascinating too, but I think it has to do with inconvenience. There's a large percentage who are small business people and sometimes work in situations where they feel they can't take time out to do this. There's also a myth that was circulating in certain communities that if you vote then you're going to get called to jury duty.

I hope it doesn't take tragedies to force people to come to terms with the old adage that if you don't have a seat at the table, you're on the menu.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

MACRON SLAMS VAX 'BLOCKING' French President Emmanuel Macron today renewed his call for richer nations to share Covid-19 vaccine doses with poorer nations, and he criticized the U.S. and the U.K. for "blocking" such transfers.

France was the first member of the group of seven rich nations known as the G-7 to donate doses, but Macron has been under pressure recently for not clearly supporting a proposal to lift intellectual property rights for Covid-19 vaccines, an idea the U.S. backed on Wednesday.

Responding to a question by reporters upon his arrival to the EU Social Summit in Porto, Macron defended his position. "What's the issue right now? It's not really about intellectual property; you can give it to a lab that won't know how to produce it — the first issue is giving doses," Macron said. "The second pillar for the vaccines to circulate it's not to block ingredients and the vaccines; today the Anglo-Saxons are blocking a lot of ingredients and vaccines.

PUNCHLINES

CATCHING OUR BREATH After a week that saw the GOP go after Liz Cheney; Facebook's Oversight Board keep Trump from posting; and the Bidens seeming to tower over the Carters, Matt Wuerker delivers the Weekend Wrap of the best political satire and cartoons to send us into Saturday and Sunday.

Nightly video player of Matt Wuerker's Weekend Wrap

Nightly Number

107 percent

The rate of increase in threats against members of Congress compared to last year, the United States Capitol Police said today . The disclosure comes as lawmakers debate additional funding to increase Capitol Police staffing and to address security needs in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riot, including whether to install permanent fencing around the Capitol complex.

Parting Words

LIVE FROM NEW YORK, IT'S $DOGE — Elon Musk is hosting "Saturday Night Live" this weekend, and as the Tesla CEO said in the promo video, "There's no telling what I may do."

Wall Street is already betting on what Musk might do. Dogecoin, one of Musk's favorite cryptocurrencies, was trading up today at around 65 cents ahead of Musk's SNL appearance. That's just short of its all-time high of 69 cents.

Last week, when Musk promoted his May 8 SNL gig on Twitter by labeling himself "The Dogefather," Dogecoin spiked more than 30 percent.

Nightly's Myah Ward talked to Brendan Greeley, a contributing editor at the Financial Times, about the crypto craze and what Musk could do to move the markets this weekend. This conversation has been edited.

Let's say Musk makes a joke about buying cryptocurrencies on SNL tomorrow. What kind of effect would this have in the world of memecoins and other crypto assets?

I mean, it sounds like a lot of fun!

Look, this happens with more traditional currencies. Steven Mnuchin, I think it would have been early 2017 at Davos, made a comment about the value of the dollar. And I'm going to get this wrong, but he said something about how we should let the dollar do what it wants to do. And that was interpreted as, perhaps the dollar will sink in value.

Just that indicator of intent from him changed the value of the dollar against other currencies overnight. So it's not that hard to believe that somebody who's obviously invested in other coins could give a signal of intent and change the value overnight. That's not novel.

You're writing a book about the history of the dollar. What do you make of the crypto craze and the role these currencies play in the financial system?

I still think we're talking a bit of fun. I think Dogecoin is hilarious. I don't know immediately what it would be for. But that doesn't mean we should dismiss it as inherently not money.

There's this idea that all money is a meme. I don't agree with that. I think it's necessary for money to be a meme to survive, but it's not sufficient. We can talk about Steven Mnuchin at Davos saying something about the dollar and in a meme-like way, affecting the value of it. But that doesn't explain all of how it works.

I think one of the things that's missing in a conversation about any of these other new kinds of currency is that, if you want a system where different kinds of money trade for each other at par, you're not talking about technology. You're talking about governments and social policy. That's what makes money trade at par. If Elon Musk says something tomorrow night about Dogecoin and it affects the value of Dogecoin, that is an aspect of money. But it is not the complete aspect of how money works and how we think of it.

What do you think the is most market-moving thing Musk could say on SNL?

If he decided that he was going to convert Tesla's treasury into Dogecoin, that would be significant. I don't anticipate he would do that.

But look at what we're talking about. We're talking about a major American car manufacturer, the possibility of that company converting some of its treasury into a coin based on a dog meme that was invented as a joke a couple of years ago. I don't know, this is all too fantastical to take seriously.

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