News: Axios Vitals: Biden's ambitious vaccine goal — Births drop

Wednesday, May 5, 2021

Axios Vitals: Biden's ambitious vaccine goal — Births drop — Pfizer's crazy quarter

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Vitals

By Caitlin Owens ·May 05, 2021

Good morning.

Join Axios' Sara Kehaulani Goo and Tina Reed Thursday at 12:30pm ET for a conversation on disparities in maternal health, featuring Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-Ill.) and March of Dimes president and CEO Stacey D. Stewart. Register here.

Today's word count is 853, or a 3-minute read.

1 big thing: Biden's latest vaccine goal is his hardest yet

Data: CDC, Our World in Data; Note: New Hampshire not including due to conflicting data from source; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

President Biden's latest vaccination goal — 70% of adults receiving one shot by July 4 — will be much harder to reach than his previous ones. And if the U.S. gets there, it will likely be driven by blue states.

Between the lines: The U.S. has already inoculated most of its vaccine-enthusiastic population. States are already beginning to see wide disparities in vaccination rates, largely along political lines.

Driving the news: The White House said yesterday that the president's new goal is to have 160 million Americans fully vaccinated and at least one shot administered to 70% of adults by July 4.

The White House is also changing its vaccine distribution strategy, the Washington Post reports, allowing shots to be reallocated from states where demand has waned to states where there are still people waiting to be vaccinated.

By the numbers: Around 106 million Americans are already fully vaccinated, and 148 million have received at least one dose, per the CDC.

Slightly more than 56% of adults have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine, meaning 14% more of the adult population has to get a shot before July 4 to reach the president's goal.

Context: Biden's previous vaccination goals — 100 million doses in his first 100 days, which he then upped to 200 million — were relatively easy to meet.

This one is "going to be harder because the next group of people who need to get vaccinated are just much harder to reach. They're either far more ambivalent about getting vaccinated or have lots and lots of questions," said Ashish Jha, dean of Brown University School of Public Health.

State of play: Most states are vaccinating fewer people than they were a month ago, but the drop has generally been steeper in red states.

Blue states tend to have already vaccinated a higher portion of their population.

Go deeper.

2. U.S. could still lead vaccine diplomacy

An illustration of blue COVID-19 vaccine vials on the red and white stripes of an American flag.

Illustration: Rae Cook/Axios

The U.S. is the last major power to enter the race for global vaccine diplomacy, but still has the opportunity to win it, Axios' David Lawler reports.

Driving the news: The White House has backed Pfizer's plan to begin to export doses made in the U.S., and announced yesterday that, by July 4, the U.S. will export at least 10% of the doses it purchases.

Why it matters: China, Russia and other world powers began shipping vaccines all over the world months before the U.S. The Biden administration has expressed concerns that Moscow and Beijing could use vaccines as leverage to expand their global influence.

Yes, but: Both have also struggled to deliver on their promises, as have the other major players: India and the EU.

Keep reading.

3. U.S. births drop during pandemic

Data: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics; Chart: Michelle McGhee/Axios

The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped by 4% last year compared to 2019, the lowest it's been in nearly 50 years, Axios' Marisa Fernandez reports.

Why it matters: The data from the National Center for Health Statistics corroborates previous surveys that predicted a "COVID baby bust."

By the numbers: There were 55.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44. It is the sixth straight year the number of births in the U.S. have fallen, CDC data shows.

The big picture: Fertility rates in the U.S. and around the world have been falling for years, as women in developed countries have gained more freedoms, received more education, and in some cases, increased access to birth control.

A message from PhRMA

Americans don't need another barrier to their medicines

We have to lower what patients pay for their medicines. We also have to make sure they are getting the medicines they need.

The challenge: H.R.3 forces a choice between one or the other. There's a way to do both, but H.R.3 isn't it.

Get the facts.

4. Pfizer's crazy quarter

Pfizer reported a super strong first quarter, saying it now expects about $26 billion in sales for its COVID-19 vaccine this year. That's up from an earlier projection of about $15 billion, Axios' Tina Reed reports.

The state of play: In the first quarter, Pfizer posted about $4.9 billion in profits on revenue of $14.6 billion. That's up about 45% from about $3.4 billion in the first quarter of 2020 on revenue of $10.1 billion.

That was in large part because Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine, created with BioNTech, generated $3.5 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2021 alone.

Reality check: These are some seriously big numbers. If you need a comparison, look to one of Pfizer's all-time blockbusters, Lipitor, which made about $13 billion in one year, at its peak.

Details: As of May 3, Pfizer and BioNTech have shipped approximately 430 million doses of the vaccine to 91 countries and territories. They expect to deliver 1.6 billion doses through the end of the year.

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla also told investors the company expects to hear back "shortly" from the FDA on the authorization of its vaccine for kids ages 12 to 15.

5. Poll: Mask use drops

Data: Axios/Ipsos Poll; Note: 3.3% margin of error; Chart: Sara Wise/Axios

Vaccinated Americans are easing up on wearing masks — but so are unvaccinated Americans — according to a new Ipsos poll.

Why it matters: The latest findings are an early snapshot of how people are modifying their behavior since the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced last week that fully vaccinated people don't have to wear masks outside, Axios' David Nather reports.

The big picture: Overall, 57% said they still wear a mask at all times when leaving the house.

24% said they wear masks sometimes but not all the time, 11% said they do occasionally but not often, and 8% said they never do.
But the share of vaccinated people who reported wearing masks at all times has dropped since mid-April. It's now 63%, down from 74% in the April 16–19 Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index poll.

Between the lines: Vaccinated people are still much more likely to mask than unvaccinated people, who are at greater risk of catching or spreading the virus.

A message from PhRMA

Congress: Here's why H.R.3 isn't the solution to lower cost drugs

Americans don't need another barrier to their medicines.

We have to lower what patients pay for their medicines. We also have to make sure they are getting the medicines they need. H.R.3 forces a choice between one or the other. There's a way to do both, but H.R.3 isn't it. Get the facts.