| | | | | | | Presented By Deloitte | | | | Axios Future | | By Bryan Walsh ·Apr 21, 2021 | | Welcome to Axios Future, where it is currently Wednesday, I'm pretty sure. Today's Smart Brevity count: 1,765 words or about 6½ minutes | | | | | | 1 big thing: Tech shows that side effects aren't just for vaccines |  | | | Illustration: Rae Cook/Axios | | | | The debate over extremely rare side effects from the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine highlights questions about how we should account for the unintended consequences of new technology. Why it matters: AI algorithms, facial recognition, self-driving cars — the future will be full of technologies that will bring new benefits shadowed by new harms. But unlike in medicine, there isn't a clear framework for how to strike a balance between the two. Driving the news: On Wednesday, the EU unveiled new draft regulations that would constrain the use of certain kinds of AI like real-time facial recognition or social credit scoring. - EU officials framed the new rules as part of a "risk-based approach" to regulating new technology that would seek to balance civil rights against the need to promote innovation.
Yes, but: The proposed regulations come only after the tech industry and many of its most controversial products have already ensconced themselves in the global economy and daily life — a marked contrast to how we regulate many medical interventions like the COVID-19 vaccine. - As the pause of the J&J vaccine demonstrates, even just a handful of reported cases of possible side effects is enough to temporarily halt the distribution of a vaccine out of what the FDA's Peter Marks called an "abundance of caution."
Be smart: For better or for worse, an "abundance of caution" is not the attitude regulators or the public have generally taken toward the innovations of the broader tech industry. - Federal regulators are investigating the fatal crash of a Tesla vehicle over the weekend in Texas that had no one behind the wheel, one of numerous recent accidents in which drivers were or may have been using the company's quasi-self-driving Autopilot feature.
- Tesla CEO Elon Musk claimed on Twitter that data logs showed that Autopilot hadn't been enabled in the Texas accident.
- Last week Twitter announced it would examine the machine learning algorithms that help determine its feed for "harmful side effects" like gender or racial bias — a move that comes 15 years after the social network was founded.
The big question: What would the world look like if we moved as carefully with all innovations as we do with something like vaccines? - Safer, perhaps, as we'd examine the potential harms that could come with new inventions like social media before they wired the entire world.
- But it would also likely be far less innovative, and as the debate over the J&J vaccine demonstrates, an abundance of caution can leave us exposed to less direct harms as we lose out on new advances that might promote growth or protect us from unanticipated threats.
What's next: The stakes of how we handle the side effects of new technologies will only grow in the future. - Martin Rees, the U.K.'s Astronomer Royal and an existential risk expert, warned this week that "[0]ur globally-linked society is vulnerable to the unintended consequences of powerful new technologies — not only nuclear, but (even more) biotech, cyber, advanced AI, space technology."
- At the same time, Rees acknowledged to me, "We depend hugely on the benefits of these technologies as well," which puts us in the uncomfortable position of trying to thread a needle of innovation where both too little and too much regulation could be disastrous.
The bottom line: This dilemma will define our future. |     | | | | | | 2. The jobs of the future are getting back on track |  Data: Cognizant; Chart: Will Chase/Axios While digitally enabled "jobs of the future" are still below their pre-pandemic level, new data suggests they are on the way back. The big picture: The U.S. labor market is recovering faster than expected thanks to a so-far successful vaccination program and massive stimulus spending. Future-focused jobs suffered even more during the pandemic than employment as a whole, but the category is set to take off later this year. By the numbers: The consulting firm Cognizant this morning released the first-quarter numbers for its Jobs of the Future Index, which tracks growth in new jobs in the digital and automated economy. - The 28.8% quarter-on-quarter increase of the index marked its greatest gain ever over the past two years.
- All eight of the job families within the index experienced growth in the first quarter of 2021, with Fitness and Wellness (+137.8%) and the Transport (+38%) sectors emerging as the top performers.
What they're saying: "We've rebuilt the essential job class, and now companies are beginning to think strategically about the jobs of the future," says Robert Brown, vice president at Cognizant's Center for the Future of Work. - That doesn't automatically mean tech jobs.
- The biggest single gainer by far was Caregiver/Personal Care Aide, a reminder that hands-on care will be a growing job category for an aging population in the future, now that vaccines have made in-home visits safe again.
The catch: Even with strong first-quarter growth, the index still posted a year-on-year decline of 22.2%. - And as Kevin Roose reported in the New York Times today, many workers in tech and other white-collar fields may take advantage of the disruption of the pandemic to rethink work altogether.
| | | | | | | | 3. A reality check for quantum computing |  | | | Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios | | | | One of the pioneers of quantum computing warns that industry hype is getting ahead of actual performance. Why it matters: Quantum holds the promise of revolutionizing computing. But there are still enormous hardware and software challenges that need to be overcome. Driving the news: Last week the Association of Computing Machinery awarded its $250,000 ACM Prize to Scott Aaronson, a professor at the University of Texas, for his "groundbreaking contributions to quantum computing." - Aaronson helped develop the concept of quantum supremacy, a technical milestone that can only be achieved when a quantum device proves capable of solving a problem that no classical computer could solve in a reasonable amount of time.
Yes, but: Despite his technical bona fides — or perhaps because of them — Aaronson expressed skepticism about how far the quantum computing industry has come so far when it comes to achieving what it advertises. - "What's happened over the last decade is that there have been a tremendous number of claims about the more immediate things you can do with a quantum computer, like solve all these machine learning problems," says Aaronson.
- "But these claims are about 90% bullsh*t."
Details: Aaronson argues that much of what quantum computing companies are doing can still be done as well or better on the best classical computers — which is precisely what happened after Google claimed quantum supremacy on a problem in 2019. - To Aaronson, quantum computing has yet to reach the transistor level — the equivalent of the second-generation of classical computers, which entered use in the mid-1950s.
- "We are barely into the equivalent of vacuum tubes," he says.
The bottom line: Aaronson is still bullish on the long-term future of quantum computing hardware, which has seen "unbelievable progress over the last 20–25 years." - But to get further, he says, "you're going to need some revolutionary new development."
Read next: Will quantum computing ever live up to its hype? | | | | | | | | A message from Deloitte | | New research shows the benefits of workforce ecosystems | | |  | | | | Research reveals that a workforce ecosystem approach can help leaders accomplish their organization's strategic goals. The reason: This approach allows companies to take advantage of the shifts that are changing how work gets done in enterprise and better align work with strategy. Learn more. | | | | | | 4. Approaching the "tipping point" on vaccines |  Data: CivicScience; Chart: Axios Visuals The U.S. will probably run out of adults who are enthusiastic about getting vaccinated within the next two to four weeks, according to a KFF analysis published yesterday, my Axios colleague Caitlin Owens reports. Between the lines: Vaccine hesitancy is rapidly approaching as our main impediment to herd immunity. - "It appears we are quite close to the tipping point where demand for rather than supply of vaccines is our primary challenge," the authors write.
- "Federal, state, and local officials, and the private sector, will face the challenge of having to figure out how to increase willingness to get vaccinated among those still on the fence, and ideally among the one-fifth of adults who have consistently said they would not get vaccinated or would do so only if required."
Related: Republicans who say they don't want to get the vaccine are becoming only more resistant, the Washington Post reports. - "The further we go into the vaccination process, the more passionate the hesitancy is," Frank Luntz, a longtime GOP communications expert, said after a Zoom focus group session last weekend. "If you've refused to take the vaccine this long, it's going to be hard to switch you."
- Participants in the focus group said they were concerned by the prospect of booster shots, and most said they would want a fake vaccination card.
| | | | | | | | 5. Worthy of your time | | How to prepare for a "megadisaster" (Kevin Krajick and David J. Craig — Columbia Magazine) - From cyberattacks to bioterrorism, the big disasters of the future won't look like the past — and now is the time to prepare.
Redesigning AI (Daron Acemoglu — Boston Review) - An AI and labor expert argues that we need to pay far more attention to the social implications of artificial intelligence advances.
Big Agriculture is best (Ted Nordhaus and Dan Blaustein-Rejto — Foreign Policy) - One of the biggest trends of the past century has been the shift of workers from farms to cities, and this piece argues the move to big farming has been a net positive for food and for humanity.
Promise and peril: How artificial intelligence is transforming health care (Erin Brodwin and Casey Ross — STAT) | | | | | | | | 6. 1 Philadelphia thing: Mastering America's hardest accent |  | | | A Philadelphia Eagles fan engaged in his normal behavior: booing. Photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images | | | | A new HBO show starring Kate Winslet features something rare: an actor successfully doing the unique Philadelphia accent. Why it matters: The City of Brotherly Love isn't just the birthplace of our nation. It's also home to what many linguists argue is America's most distinctive regional accent — and for actors, its most difficult. What's happening: In the new crime drama "Mare of Easttown," Winslet plays a burned-out detective in a small town outside of Philadelphia. - The town is real, as is the diphthong-heavy accent Winslet mastered after a great deal of effort.
- "I'm not going to lie," the UK native told Vanity Fair. "I love doing accents, but this one did drive me crazy."
How it works: The Philadelphia — or to put it in native terms, "Filefia" — accent is a mashup of typically Northeastern sounds and Southern-influenced vowels, sprinkled heavily with extra syllables. - The accent is so difficult to pull off — and so off-putting if only one actor tries it in a Philadelphia-set production — that even stars as Method as Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook" opt for a generic New York sound.
- This is the linguistic equivalent of wearing a Giants jersey to an Eagles (sorry, Iggles) game at the Linc, and for your personal safety, I do not recommend trying it.
What's next: Like other regional dialects around the U.S., the Philadelphia accent is dying off, becoming more Northern thanks to a combination of mass media and the stigmatization of Southern ways of speaking. (Also, millennials.) - I'm from Bucks County, an hour outside of Philadelphia, and I couldn't speak like Winslet's character if I tried — though my Philadelphia-born and bred parents have been known to ask for the occasional glass of "wooder."
The bottom line: Don't attempt this accent without about 50 years in Manayunk — or a really, really good dialect coach. | | | | | | | | A message from Deloitte | | New report showcases the top tech trends for 2021 | | |  | | | | The Tech Trends 2021 report explores the opportunities, strategies and technologies that will drive new plans during the next 18 to 24 months and beyond. Among these trends are: - Aligning corporate and technology strategy.
- Industrializing AI initiatives.
- Rebooting the digital workplace.
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