Monday, March 29, 2021

House Dems weigh statewide races with redistricting looming

Presented by McDonald's: A play-by-play preview of the day's congressional news
Mar 29, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO Huddle

By Olivia Beavers

Presented by

With Sarah Ferris.

WALK THE LINES: Imagine being told, "you may or may not have a job in a couple of months. We'll get back to you." Do you start looking for another or do you just keep your fingers crossed? Many of the House's most vulnerable Democrats are in this uncomfortable waiting period where they have to wait months before they will find out if they stand a chance of winning their seats next year after congressional maps undergo their once-in-a-decade redraw.

This unenviable spot has also prodded roughly a half-dozen Democrats, who could face some of the toughest redistricting prospects, to consider running for statewide office -- either Senate or governor -- all in states where Republicans could wipe them off the map next year depending how their districts are redrawn. Campaigning with Covid around also doesn't help the situation (or any situation, really), nor does the prospect of potentially winding up in the House minority.

"Everyone in this place is always thinking about what they're going to do in the future. But certainly, I know that's affecting the thinking of a lot of people," said Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.), who is close to many swing-district Democrats in the House. "The most frustrating thing is everything is so delayed. It's really hard for people to know how to plan."

Democratic members considering statewide runs include:

-Rep. Conor Lamb (Pa.), who is viewed as a potential Senate contender. He acknowledges the potential redistricting woes he will be facing: "Of course there's a chance. I mean, we're losing a seat overall," Lamb said, noting that Pennsylvania, which is declining in population relative to other states, is likely ceding one of its 18 districts. "The Republicans clearly have a special place in their heart for me. So, you know, if they have some say about where it would happen, I'm sure it would affect me."

-Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio), who has resisted entreaties to run in the past, is expected to announce a bid for Sen. Rob Portman's seat. He also notes how redistricting may impact his current seat: "I may not be able to get that piece of Summit, and any other direction you go in is pretty red. It could be harder," he told my colleagues, nodding at how Trump won the other population centers of Ryan's district in 2020.

-Rep. Stephanie Murphy (Fla.), who is weighing a bid for Senate as her seat in the Orlando suburbs remains a major question mark next year. BUT, she says her district's future has nothing to do with her consideration of a Senate bid. "I'm not worried about it. When you do your job well, the rest will take care of itself," Murphy said. "You don't run for the Senate because you're worried about that. That's just not a factor."

More here from Sarah, Ally Mutnick, and James Arkin: https://politi.co/31tP8kc

 

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'REGULAR ORDER' PLEASE: The Problem Solvers Caucus sent a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) this morning calling for a "return to regular order in the House" after a year of massive pandemic aid packages fast-tracked to the floor. The group, which includes 58 members from both parties, is calling for a "deliberative and open process" — aka more debate and amendments — after an unusually top-heavy year of legislating under Covid.

"We believe a return to regular order can help build the necessary support from both parties to enact meaningful, bipartisan legislation," the group wrote in a letter. Read the full letter here: https://politi.co/31robxF

SOUTH TO THE BORDER: Lawmakers from both parties embarked on dueling trips to the U.S.-Mexico border this weekend -- and even though they both sought to spotlight the same overall problem of a surge of migrants at the border, the two parties have adopted far different messaging strategies.

The GOP delegation, led by Texas Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn, was much more focused on border security and blaming President Joe Biden for the surge at the border, while the Dem delegation , led by Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas) focused more on the challenges of housing unaccompanied children and casting blame on the Trump administration as well as years of inaction on immigration reform, says Sabrina Rodriquez, who covers immigration for us.

There was also a Saturday trip led by Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-Texas), whose delegation featured seven Democrats and one Republican in El Paso, Texas.

And another point from Sabrina to keep in mind: As Biden's DHS Sec. Alejandro Mayorkas has warned that the U.S. is "on pace to encounter more individuals on the southwest border than we have in the last 20 years." However, the Biden administration is immediately expelling the vast majority of migrants crossing the border. Only unaccompanied minors and some families are being allowed to stay while they await hearings on their asylum claims in U.S. courts.

Also an interesting visual: per NBC's Jacob Soboroff : "To get an up-close look at an increase in migration of *asylum-seeking unaccompanied minors* my colleague @BreakingChesky just reported Republican Senators are about to ride up and down the Rio Grande on [Texas Department of Public Safety] boats outfitted with multiple .30 caliber machine guns."

Related: Family groups crossing border in soaring numbers point to next phase of crisis, by WaPo's Nick Miroff and Maria Sacchetti: https://wapo.st/2PAYzM6 | N.Y. congressman: Border crisis due to decades of bad U.S. behavior, by our David Cohen: https://politi.co/3rvleXn

 

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HAPPY MONDAY! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill on this March 29, where it is Melanie's birthday! Go wish your former Huddle host a big CONGRATULATIONS ON THE DAY OF HER BIRTH, and send her a) pictures of boxer pups, 2) news tips, 3) Tone-deaf voicemail performances of Happy Birthday (as your Huddle host plans to do), 4) appreciation poems, or 5) Chanel Gifs. --> MZanona@politico.com

FRIDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The AP's story on how Biden is leaving the door open for Senate changes to advance his agenda was the big winner.

PUPS OF CAPITOL HILL: This is why we cannot have nice things...There were some cases of voter fraud in the last race, but after a Huddle investigation yesterday evening, it was determined that the ultimate outcome was not affected. As much as your Huddle host was excited to see Coco@chanel.com voting (and yes, those of you who voted more than once...), I will be keeping a very watchful eye this final round so no tricks, or no bones! The FINALISTS are: Griffey, the King Charles Spaniel pup and Teddy RUFFSevelt, the ball-loving retriever.

A statement from Otto , Rep. Tom Malinowksi's basenji, on his loss: "A few moments ago, I barked at Griffey to concede the race. I recognize that my com-pet-itor's suspiciously mastiff pup-ular vote margin mutt have been padded by bots, and some sup-paw-ters have urged me to take this all the way to the Supreme Kennel to sniff out the truth. But that is the kind of dog-matism that is tearing this country apart. For the sake of paw-sterity, I must accept that every dog has its day, and this was not mine."

Another concession, from Toby, the Corkie : "After three hard fought matchups, Toby will return to life in the shadow of Capitol Hill where he will continue to advocate for heart health with his friend Bertie and all dogs of the American College of Cardiology.

Vote here to determine the Huddle Pups Photo Competition winner: https://woobox.com/d6he9k

COMING UP: Appearing on Fox News Sunday last weekend, Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed previous reporting that Biden's infrastructure plan will be effectively split into two proposals. The first proposal that will be rolled out this week will focus on rebuilding roads, bridges and other infrastructure, while the second, which will be rolled out in April, would address health care and the child tax credit, and other administration priorities.

As my Playbook friends report, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and his staff are now making the case that they can use the reconciliation process a third time this year: Once for fiscal year 2021, once for fiscal year 2022 and a third time via a parliamentary move buried in the text of the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, which potentially allows them to revisit and amend an already-passed budget resolution.

"Recently, top policy aides to Majority Leader Schumer made the argument to the Senate Parliamentarian that Section 304 allows for at least one additional set of reconciliation bills related to revenue, spending and the public debt to be considered for Fiscal Year 2021," a Schumer aide previewing the strategy told Playbook Sunday night.

"Rather than using a fiscal 2022 budget resolution, Schumer is essentially asking the parliamentarian to revise the fiscal 2021 resolution (used to pass Biden's $1.9T package) in order to trigger reconciliation again," as our Caitlin Emma points out.

TBD if the Senate parliamentarian will bite. But this certainly would be a move that would not make Republicans happy.

Related: The Biden do-over: Democrats get a chance to try again on Obama defeats, by WaPo's Annie Linskey and Marianna Sotomayor: https://wapo.st/3cwuoOX | How two legislative tacticians scored big wins on child poverty in the stimulus, by NYT's Emily Cochrane and Catie Edmondson: https://nyti.ms/2O1cTgf | Path from Clinton to Biden takes U-turn on debt, trade, more, by the AP's Josh Boak: https://bit.ly/3rBaQ0a

 

TUNE IN TO GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS: Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded over the past year amid a global pandemic. This podcast helps to identify and understand the impediments to smart policymaking. Subscribe and start listening today.

 
 

ROADBLOCKED: Senate Democrats are looking to move quickly on bills designed to address the rise in hate crimes against Asian Americans. Schumer has called that one piece of legislation a top priority next month -- but uno problemo: it lacks GOP support.

As my colleagues put it: "Their modest legislative effort is headed toward the same political paralysis that's plagued Congress after past national tragedies."

Schumer plans to force a vote on a bill that would establish a Justice Department point person to focus on hate crimes, while Republicans are skeptical that additional legislation is needed to address hate crimes. Plus, some say, they have yet to review the Democrats' bill.

Dem POV: "It all fits in that same swirl of the things that the American people want us to do. But Congress continues to fail because of the filibuster," said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

GOP POV: "We've already got a hate crimes bill," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). "Just go after people who hurt folks because of their race. Pound them. We've already got the law." More here from Nick and Marianne: https://politi.co/3ddSLQP

Related: Rep. Judy Chu 'concerned' Atlanta spa suspect may not be charged with hate crime, by our Evan Semones: https://politi.co/3cvUCkB

FILI OR BUST?: I don't think I am going to be breaking any ground here, but talk about the filibuster isn't going away any time soon… even if the needle doesn't move at all. Democrats don't have enough votes to get rid of the legislative filibuster with Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) and Krysten Simena (D-Ariz.) on the record pledging that they will not vote to get rid of the practice (in addition others who have voiced hesitancy in nixing it).

But Democratic priorities are piling up in the Senate without enough votes to pass even as events across the country dial up the pressure, including a surge in migrants at the border, two mass shootings and the new Georgia voting laws.

E.G.: "I think that we have to pass voting rights no matter what...This is an assault on the covenant that we have with one another as an American people. And it's my job to protect it," Sen. Raphael Warnock (R-Ga.) said on CNN's State of the Union. "How are you going to insist on protecting minority rights in the Senate, while refusing to protect minority rights in the society?"

Related: In Washington, policy revolves around Joe Manchin. He likes it that way, by NYT's Jonathan Martin: https://nyti.ms/39Fclob | Graham blasts Biden for response to Georgia election law: He 'played the race card,' by our Evan Semones: https://politi.co/31t7DW4

Spotlight: Nikema Williams blazes her own trail in the footsteps of history, by CNN's Dana Bash: https://cnn.it/3m5eNZR

ICYMI over the weekend:

-Pelosi taps D.C. National Guard chief as top House security official, Kyle reports: https://politi.co/3u7i5yL

-GOP candidate from New Jersey accused of pandering after he transforms into cowboy for Texas run, by WaPo's Meryl Kornfield: https://wapo.st/3w6Jd2D

-Dianne Feinstein becomes California's longest serving US senator, by the LA Times's Jennifer Haberkorn: https://lat.ms/31rILh4

-Democrats passed provisions beefing up the Medicaid program, but a little-noticed Trump era policy could result in benefit cuts advocates warn, the National Journal's Erin Durkin reports: https://bit.ly/3sxchOz

 

A message from McDonald's:

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TRANSITIONS

Patrick Bond is joining Sen. Angus King's office as his Senior Policy Adviser for energy and environmental issues. He most recently served as Rep. Sylvia Garcia's legislative director.

Assistant Speaker Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) announced two new additions to her team: Courtney Cochran, Director of Strategy Planning, and Elana Ross , Deputy Communications Director. Cochran previously worked for Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-N.J.) the past few years in various roles, including most recently as her deputy chief of staff. She is also an alum of former Rep. Elijah Cummings's (D-Md.) office. Ross previously worked at Planned Parenthood Federation of America, where she was the press secretary to the president and CEO, Alexis McGill Johnson. Ross is also an alum of Sen. Amy Klobuchar's (D-Minn.) office.

Hunter Lovell is now press secretary in Rep. Steve Scalise's (R-La.) personal office. He previously was press assistant for Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.).

Kiera O'Brien is joining Sen. Dan Sullivan's (R-Alaska) office as correspondence manager focused on energy and climate policy. She previously was founder and president of Young Conservatives for Carbon Dividends.

Liz Hipple will be a senior policy analyst at the Joint Economic Committee. She previously was senior policy adviser at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth.

TODAY IN CONGRESS

The House will meet in a pro forma session at 10:30 a.m.

The Senate will meet in a pro forma session at 11 a.m.

AROUND THE HILL

12:30 p.m.: The Hill holds a virtual "Future of Defense" summit, featuring Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) and Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-Ill.) among intelligence and Pentagon officials.

TRIVIA

FRIDAY'S WINNER: Max Baker was the first person to correctly guess that the Declaration of Independence, the Constitution, and the Bill of Rights were stored at Fort Knox during World War II.

TODAY'S QUESTION: From Max: The traditionally conservative New Hampshire Union Leader doesn't usually endorse candidates in the Democratic primary. But in 2020, the UL endorsed Senator Amy Klobuchar. Before Senator Klobuchar, who was the last Democratic primary candidate the UL endorsed?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your answer to obeavers@politico.com.

GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning.

Follow Olivia on Twitter: @Olivia_Beavers

 

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