| | | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri, Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | Presented by |  | | | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Congress is about to pass and President JOE BIDEN is about to sign into law the greatest expansion of the welfare state since LBJ. The bill extends far beyond stimulus payments and unemployment benefits that have received most of the attention: It would expand the child tax credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit, provide more generous support for child-care expenses and bolster Obamacare to the tune of tens of billions of dollars. The government expansion is so broad that WaPo, reflecting the sensibility of most liberals, says it augurs "seismic shifts in U.S. politics" because the pandemic made Americans more pro-big government and more anti-austerity — perhaps permanently. Meanwhile, the WSJ editorial page, a little late to the fight, decries "the Covid Welfare State," and warns that the "$1.9 trillion Democratic bill provides a guaranteed income unlinked to work." As the bill moves through the House for a final vote this week, two big questions are on our minds: 1) How did Democrats win this fight over welfare while barely firing a shot? 2) Can they do it again? On the first question, the conventional wisdom is sound: The twin crises of disease and recession boosted support for government intervention well beyond what has been tolerated for decades; DONALD TRUMP and the GOP's own support for the last two bills depolarized the fight over this one; Biden's opposition was distracted by internal divisions (Jan. 6, impeachment, McCarthy vs. Cheney, Trump vs. McConnell); and the conservative media was distracted by juicier fare than tax policy. | | A message from the American Beverage Association: At America's beverage companies our plastic bottles are made to be remade. We're carefully designing them to be 100% recyclable, including the caps—so every bottle can become a new one. That means less plastic waste in our environment. Please help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | If you've watched Fox News every night during the Biden presidency (we have), it's that last point that's the most notable. We've learned a couple of things: 1) The MyPillow guy has really expanded beyond pillows, and 2) Fox's most-watched hosts care a lot more about cancel culture, Dr. Seuss and antifa's alleged (but, according to the FBI, nonexistent) role on Jan. 6 than they do about Biden's American Rescue Plan. NYT's Ezra Klein recently described this dynamic: "If you can dial down the conflict, you can dial up the policy." That seems wrong because it suggests that Biden can control the conflict knob. When faced with an economic crisis in 2009, BARACK OBAMA did not dial up the conflict. It's just that he faced a united GOP that closely coordinated with a powerful media echo chamber that helped create a massive backlash to federal policies. Can the White House replicate the successful Covid relief strategy with its coming jobs bill, which may have a similar price tag and even more ambitious policy goals? Given the role that conservative media plays in American politics, a lot depends on whether Fox and similar outlets start to realize that what's being pushed through Congress is a lot more consequential than whether you can still buy "If I Ran the Zoo." GOP WON'T QUIT USING TRUMP'S NAME — We reported Saturday that Trump's lawyers sent a cease-and-desist letter to the RNC, NRSC and NRCC telling them to stop using his name to fundraise or sell merchandise. But they don't seem to be taking the warnings seriously. The NRSC advertised a T-shirt for "Trump Supporters ONLY!" with his face and the words "Miss Me yet?" on Facebook. The landing page for the donation was still active as of Sunday night. As Alex Isenstadt noted , the RNC doesn't seem to be backing off, either. Trump was referenced in fundraising emails Saturday and Sunday even though the letter was delivered to the committee lawyers Friday. The NRSC declined to comment and the RNC did not get back to us. | | | | A message from the American Beverage Association:   Every Bottle Back is one way we're driving solutions together. Starting another 100 years with a new look, American Beverage will continue with our shared leadership. Ameribev.org | | | BIDEN'S MONDAY — Per the White House, Biden will sign two executive orders today "establishing the White House Gender Policy Council" and one "ensuring education free from sexual siolence." The president and VP KAMALA HARRIS will receive the President's Daily Brief at 9:50 a.m. Biden and VA Secretary DENIS MCDONOUGH will visit the VA Medical Center in D.C. at 1 p.m. to see the administration of vaccines there. At 4:20 p.m., Biden, Harris and Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN will deliver remarks in the State Dining Room for International Women's Day. Harris will also speak virtually to the National League of Cities' Congressional City Conference at 2:15 p.m. — The White House Covid-19 response team and public health officials will brief at 11 a.m. Press secretary JEN PSAKI will brief at 11:30 a.m. along with JULISSA REYNOSO, co-chair of the Gender Policy Council and chief of staff to the first lady, and JENNIFER KLEIN, co-chair and executive director of the Gender Policy Council. THE HOUSE will meet at noon for morning hour and 2 p.m. for legislative business. THE SENATE will meet at 3 p.m. | | | | SUBSCRIBE TO "THE RECAST" TO JOIN AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION: Power dynamics are changing. "Influence" is changing. More people are demanding a seat at the table, insisting that all politics is personal and not all policy is equitable. "The Recast" is our new twice-weekly newsletter that breaks down how race and identity are recasting politics, policy and power in America. And POLITICO is recasting how we report on this crucial intersection, bringing you fresh insights, scoops, dispatches from across the country and new voices that challenge "business as usual." Don't miss out on this important new newsletter, SUBSCRIBE NOW. Thank you to our sponsor, Intel. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | | 
PHOTO OF THE DAY: People carry a casket covered in roses during a march in honor of George Floyd outside the Hennepin County Government Center in Minneapolis, Minn., on Sunday, March 7. | Stephen Maturen/Getty Images | CONGRESS MANCHIN'S FILIBUSTER TAKE — The man who runs the Senate made (big?) news on the Sunday shows with a subtle shift on the filibuster. Some on the left took his words as a sign he might not be as implacable on the issue as he's led people to believe. NYT on Manchin's comments cracking open the door N.Y. Mag's Jonathan Chait was perhaps the most bullish about what Manchin's latest filibuster musings might portend, tweeting during the Harry and Meghan special Sunday night: "This interview is mind-blowing! I'm referring, of course, to Joe Manchin's interview about the filibuster." The understated headline on his take: "Joe Manchin Says He Might Reform the Filibuster and Save American Democracy." Wrote Chait: "Ironically, it is the misleading nature of pro-filibuster propaganda that has enabled Manchin to co-opt its themes. Filibuster advocates present the device as a requirement to allow 'debate,' likening it to a kind of free-speech right for senators. … "In fact, the modern filibuster inhibits rather than enables debate. So Manchin can propound on the need to allow consideration of bills, and permit Republicans to speak on them extensively, because those are not the actual goals of filibuster supporters. The real purpose of the mechanism is to impose a 60-vote requirement (one that has already been eliminated for executive-branch appointments, fiscal policy, and judges)." THE WHITE HOUSE REOPENING REALITIES — "'An essential service': Inside Biden's struggle to meet his school reopening promises," WaPo: "The promise was clear and hopeful: With strong public health measures, then-President-elect Joe Biden declared in early December, 'the majority of our schools can be open by the end of my first 100 days.' The reality has been far more complicated. … "Unlike many of his other vows and directives — pledging 100 million coronavirus vaccine doses in his first 100 days or mandating that all Americans wear masks on federal property — reopening schools is a daunting task over which the federal government has little authority. Local and district leaders, and sometimes state officials, control how and when schools reopen, with guidance from Biden and his team on the margins." PANDEMIC TRACKER: The U.S. reported 839 new Covid-19 deaths and 41,000 new coronavirus cases Sunday. WHAT WE SAW COMING — "Diplomats Warned of a Coronavirus Danger in Wuhan — 2 Years Before the Outbreak," by Josh Rogin in POLITICO Magazine, excerpted from his new book, "Chaos Under Heaven: Trump, Xi and the Battle for the Twenty-First Century" ($25.91 on Amazon ): "To some inside the government, the name of the laboratory was familiar. Its research on bat viruses had already drawn the attention of U.S. diplomats and officials at the Beijing Embassy in late 2017, prompting them to alert Washington that the lab's own scientists had reported 'a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory.' "But their cables back to Washington were ignored. … As the pandemic set in worldwide, the origin story was largely set aside in the public coverage of the crisis. But internal government debate continued, now over whether the United States should release more information about what it knew about the lab and its possible connection to the outbreak." | | | | A message from the American Beverage Association:   Our plastic bottles are made to be remade. Help us get Every Bottle Back. EveryBottleBack.org | | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY IN MINNEAPOLIS — "Boarded up and lined with barbed wire, Minneapolis braces for murder trial in George Floyd's death," WaPo: "Everywhere, there are signs seen and unseen that Minneapolis is bracing for the landmark trial of the former police officer charged with second-degree murder and manslaughter in Floyd's death. Jury selection is set to begin Monday in the case, which is poised to be a defining moment in the history of a nation that is grappling with a racial reckoning. "However, the judge is considering a last-minute addition of a third-degree murder charge that would give prosecutors another avenue for conviction, but with a shorter prison term. The addition — or a decision to not add the charge — could trigger an appeal from either side. The judge's decision, which might not come until Monday morning, has injected even more uncertainty into the case, heightening tension in a city already on edge." RECALLING NEWSOM — "Newsom recall leaders say they have enough signatures to trigger an election," Sacramento Bee: "Leaders of the effort to recall California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Sunday they've collected 1.95 million signatures a little more than a week before the deadline, a number they believe will be more than enough to trigger a special recall election. County and state elections officials still need to verify that nearly 1.5 million are valid signatures from registered California voters before the recall can qualify for the ballot. But recall supporters said Sunday that they're confident they've collected enough. "The most recent signature verification numbers from the Secretary of State's Office found that about 83% of the signatures counted by early February were valid. There's no guarantee that validity rate will hold for the remaining signatures, but if it does, proponents would reach the threshold needed to trigger a special recall election." CUOMO UPDATE — "Top State Leader Says 'Cuomo Must Resign.' Governor Says 'No Way.'" NYT: "In a potentially crippling defection in Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo's efforts to maintain power amid a sexual harassment scandal, the leader of the New York State Senate declared on Sunday that the governor should resign 'for the good of the state.' … "'I'm not going to resign because of allegations,' the governor said, calling the notion 'anti-democratic,' and a violation of the due process clause of the Constitution. 'There is no way I resign.'" AMERICA AND THE WORLD A WARNING TO AFGHANISTAN — "Blinken Proposes New Steps to Peace, Keeps May 1st Pullout Option," TOLOnews: "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a letter to President Ashraf Ghani seen by TOLOnews put forth suggestions to the Afghan government to accelerate the peace process, including convening a UN-facilitated conference with international stakeholders, proposals to facilitate discussion between the two sides to form a negotiated settlement and ceasefire, a meeting in Turkey between both sides to finalize a peace agreement, and a revised proposal for a 90-day reduction in violence. "However, along with these proposals, Blinken made clear that the United States is considering all options regarding Afghanistan, including the May 1st deadline for full withdrawal." The letter AGREEMENT REACHED — "U.S., South Korean Negotiators Reach a Cost-Sharing Accord on Troops," WSJ: "The U.S. and South Korea have reached agreement on a new accord that would resolve a yearslong dispute on how to share the cost of American troops based on the Korean Peninsula, officials from the two countries said Sunday. … The new accord, which would last through 2025, would provide for a 'meaningful increase' in the South Korean contribution, said a State Department spokesperson, who didn't provide details. "The breakthrough on Sunday came during face-to-face talks in Washington, which were led by State Department negotiator Donna Welton and Jeong Eun-bo, South Korea's chief negotiator on the issue. The Wall Street Journal reported last month that the two sides were closing in on an agreement that would remove a major irritant in relations between Washington and its Asian ally." DISINFORMATION DIGEST — "Russian Disinformation Campaign Aims to Undermine Confidence in Pfizer, Other Covid-19 Vaccines, U.S. Officials Say," WSJ: "Russian intelligence agencies have mounted a campaign to undermine confidence in Pfizer Inc.'s and other Western vaccines, using online publications that in recent months have questioned the vaccines' development and safety, U.S. officials said. "An official with the State Department's Global Engagement Center, which monitors foreign disinformation efforts, identified four publications that he said have served as fronts for Russian intelligence. The websites played up the vaccines' risk of side effects, questioned their efficacy, and said the U.S. had rushed the Pfizer vaccine through the approval process, among other false or misleading claims." POLITICS ROUNDUP FOR YOUR RADAR — "Pence to give speech in SC, his 1st since leaving office," AP: "In his first public address since the end of the Trump administration, former Vice President Mike Pence is traveling to South Carolina, set to speak to a conservative Christian nonprofit in the state that plays a crucial role in the presidential nominating process. "Next month, Pence will keynote a dinner hosted by the Palmetto Family Council, a Pence aide told The Associated Press on Sunday. … The Pence aide described the former vice president's speech as one that will focus on traditional conservative talking points but will also tout what Pence sees as the accomplishments of the Trump administration." MEDIAWATCH NEW SERIES — "CNN and New York Times Plan Documentary Series on Rupert Murdoch," Bloomberg: "CNN and the New York Times are collaborating on a multipart documentary series about Rupert Murdoch, according to people familiar with the matter, turning a lens on one of the most influential media executives of the past half-century. "Jonathan Mahler and Jim Rutenberg , who profiled the Murdoch media dynasty for the New York Times Magazine, are working on the effort, with the goal of releasing it in 2022, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the project hasn't been announced yet. Their story, 'Planet Fox,' won an award for best feature from the Gerald Loeb Awards in the past year." | | | | FIND OUT THE LATEST WHISPERS FROM THE WEST WING: Add Transition Playbook to your daily reads to find out what's really happening inside the West Wing, who really has the president's ear, and get the latest scoop from inside cabinet departments and agencies. Track the people, policies and emerging power centers of the Biden administration. Don't miss out. Subscribe today. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | SPOTTED: DONALD TRUMP, "outside Trump Tower in first NYC trip since leaving office," via NY Post: "Upon his arrival, he waved to a lone Trump supporter who was across the street next to the media." KNOW A GOOD INTERIOR DECORATOR? — Town & Country: "Few jobs in interior design are as coveted as the plum assignment to decorate the White House of a new administration. The Kennedys had Sister Parish, the Reagans had Ted Graber—he came up as assistant to Billy Haines, the revered Hollywood decorator—and the Obamas had Michael S. Smith. ... "[T]he Bidens have not yet selected an interior designer. … The Oval's decoration is a signal of an administration's values and even its embrace of American industry and design, but it's also fraught with risk. At a time not unlike the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, Biden will have to be mindful of appearances." FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Zac Petkanas and Ryan Thomas are launching Repair Our Democracy, a rapid response project focused on promoting the For the People Act and fighting disinformation about it. Petkanas will lead the team and currently is president of Petkanas Strategies. Thomas will oversee comms and currently is national press secretary for Stand Up America. — Michael Ahrens is joining Bullpen Strategy Group as a VP in its strategic comms and public affairs advisory practice. He most recently was comms director for the RNC, and is a Marco Rubio campaign alum. — Leticia Mederos is now a senior managing director in Clark Hill's government and regulatory affairs practice, where she'll be a registered lobbyist. She most recently was chief of staff for House Appropriations Chair Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.). TRANSITIONS — Amy English is now foreign policy adviser to Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.). She most recently was director of advancement and external affairs at Pathfinder International. … Angela Ebiner is now policy adviser to Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.). She most recently was a VP at Cassidy & Associates. … Anna Bukowski is joining MVAR Media as an SVP, heading digital operations. She most recently was digital campaign services director at the DSCC. ENGAGED — Natasha Dabrowski, comms director and senior adviser at the New Democrat Coalition, and Josh Fendrick, legislative assistant for Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), got engaged at the National Arboretum with their puppy Cosmo over the weekend. The Michigan natives met in D.C. when Natasha asked Josh out on a "networking" coffee. Pic … Another pic — Bethany Aronhalt, spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, and Dave Williams, financial adviser at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, got engaged Friday at Pippin Hill Farm & Vineyards in Charlottesville, Va. They first met at the Wharf. Pics BIRTHWEEK (was Saturday): James Waters HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Alan Lowenthal (D-Calif.) (8-0) and Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) … Adrian Saenz of the White House … Lester Holt … World Bank President David Malpass (65) … Kristian Denny Todd … Robert Wolf … Andrew Hughes ... Joe Slade White … George Allen … Taylor Lustig … Jesse Thomas ... Evan Feigenbaum … POLITICO's Emily Solomon ... Sarah Henning ... Bethany Pritchard … E&E's Andrew Holmes … Mallory Quigley … Drew Nirenberg … Bill Pendergast … Tajikistani PM Kokhir Rasulzoda (6-0) … Andrew Koneschusky … Brittney Bain … Nathaniel Sobel … Inez Tenenbaum … Tom Cellucci … Amanda Schoch, assistant DNI for strategic comms … Club for Growth's Ben Decatur … Brian Looser Got a document to share? A birthday coming up? Do you know what Joe Manchin really thinks about the filibuster? Drop us a line at playbook@politico.com or individually: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza, Tara Palmeri. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike Zapler and producers Allie Bice, Eli Okun and Garrett Ross. | | A message from the American Beverage Association: America's leading beverage companies, The Coca-Cola Company, Keurig Dr Pepper and PepsiCo, are working together to reduce our industry's plastic footprint through our new Every Bottle Back initiative. We're investing in efforts to get our bottles back so we can remake them into new bottles and use less new plastic.
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