| Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 8. Another pandemic wave in Europe. Euro continues to decline. 2021-03-08  Another pandemic wave is emerging in Europe. According to latest reports, most of the countries that have high incident rates are from the bloc. For example, France, Poland and the Czech Republic.
Meanwhile in the United States, the situation is progressing rather exceptionally. So far, daily cases have dropped to below 100,000, which is a lot because the peak before was around 300,000. With regards to vaccination, the picture is still the same. Progress, especially in Europe, is still slow, but the pace in Britain and in the US is picking up. 
EUR/USD - euro traded downwards, after failing to hold at 1.1990 last week. Open short positions from 1.1990 to 1.2035. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 8, 2021 2021-03-08 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.1914 (at the time of writing this article) and continues to move down towards the next target located at the level of 1.1862. This level is a 100% Fibonacci extension of the wave A to the downside, so some kind of profit taking should be expected at this level. The 61% Fibonacci retracement level of the whole last wave up is seen at 1.1887, so there is an interesting Fibonacci cluster made of those two levels. The key short term technical support is located at the level of 1.1872, so please keep an eye on this level because any violation will lead to another wave down towards 1.1799. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2243 WR2 - 1.2176 WR1 - 1.2024 Weekly Pivot - 1.1958 WS1 - 1.1798 WS2 - 1.1738 WS3 - 1.1580 Trading Recommendations: The long term trend on EUR/USD pair remains up on monthly time frame char, however the weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is in progress. This corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions. 
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 08, 2021 2021-03-08  Overview : The GBP/USD pair has been cut down to size in recent days, suggest that the weakness may continue from the area of 1.4008 - 1.3954. Because Pound was losing ground against some major currencies such as Euro and Yen last week. The British Pound was among the best performers against the greenback. The GBP/USD pair is still setting above the 1.4008 level since last week week. The GBP/USD pair is struggling around 1.3886and at risk of falling further. The GBP/USD's correction from 1.4008 extended to as low as 1.3775 last week -bottom. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 50% retracement of 1.4008 to 1.3886 at 1.3775 - weekly close 1.3837. The GBP/USD pair trades in the 1.3886 price zone, with a a strong bearish stance in the near-term. The one-hour chart shows that the pair spent the day hovering around its 50 and 100 EMAs. Furthermore, the trend is still showing weakness below the moving average (100). The pair is now speeding down below them, favoring a bearish extension. The RSI indicator flaps around 40, indicating increasing selling interest. A strong support level is 1.3775, where the pair bottomed this week. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 1.3775 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 1.3724. If the trend breaks the minor support at 1.3775, the pair will move downtrends continuing the bearish trend development to the level 1.3724 in order to test the daily support 1. The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of weakness following a breakout of the lowest level of 1.3724. Since the trend is above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1.3954), the market is still in a downtrend. If the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the daily support at 1.3724, the market will decline further to 1.3675 to approach support 2 today. Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. On the upside, break of 1.4008 minor resistance will argue that the correction has completed, and bring retest of 1.4138 high. However, the price spot of 1.4008 and 1.4138 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 1.4138 is not breached. Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for March 8, 2021 2021-03-08 Last Friday, the pair went down and reached a cloud consisting of the support level of 1.1904 (blue bold line) and the lower border of the Bollinger line indicator 1.1920 (black dotted line). The market closed the daily candlestick at 1.1914. Today, the price may start moving up. As per the economic calendar, news is not expected today. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, from the level of 1.1914 (closing of Friday's daily candlestick), the market will move downward and may test the 61.8% retracement level, which is 1.1887 (red dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may start moving up with the target of 1.1954 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Fig. 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis – down;
- Fibonacci levels – down;
- Volumes – down;
- Candlestick analysis – up;
- Trend analysis – up;
- Bollinger bands – down;
- Weekly chart – up.
General conclusion: Today, from the level of 1.1914 (closing of last Friday's daily candlestick), the price will move downward and may test the 61.8% retracement level, which is 1.1887 (red dotted line). If this level is tested, the price may start moving up with the target of 1.1954 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.1914 (closing of last Friday's daily candlestick), the price may continue moving downward to the historical support level of 1.1811 (blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is likely to move up. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 08, 2021 2021-03-08  Overview : The EUR/USD pair is testing a confluent area of resistance ahead of the weekend, marked by a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2020 and the underside of a prior bearish trendline that projects into the same nearness. Resistance will bet set at the levels of at 1.2020 and 1.2096 will also likely add conviction to the bearish narrative, and may activate longer-term breakout selling interest. In terms of trend, the primary downtrend has been in play since price broke the 1.2020 resistance. The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.2020. The pair dropped from the level of 1.2096 (this level of 1.2096 coincides with the double top) to the bottom around 1.1915. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2020 (the weekly pivot point) followed by 1.2096 , while daily support 1 is found at 1.1971. Also, the level of 1.2020 represents a weekly pivot point for that it is acting as major resistance this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the EUR/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 1.2020 towards the first support level at 1.1971 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 1.1915, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.1915. If the NZD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1915 today, the market will decline further to 1.1871 and then try to reach 1.1800 (major support). However, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.2096, then this scenario may be invalidated. - The market is still in a downtrend. We still prefer the bearish scenario in coming two or three days. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 8, 2021 2021-03-08 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made another lower low at the level of 1.3778 and continues to move down towards the key short-term support zone located between the levels of 1.3780 - 1.3757. Any violation of this level will lead to another wave down towards the level of 1.3624. The intraday technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.3857 and 1.3889. Please keep and eye on the weekly time frame chart as well as there is an interesting trend reversal candlestick known as Shooting Star at the very top of the last rally towards 1.4224. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4174 WR2 - 1.4089 WR1 - 1.3934 Weekly Pivot - 1.3853 WS1 - 1.3702 WS2 - 1.3617 WS3 - 1.3458 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 03/08/21 2021-03-08 Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market may start moving up from the level of 1.3832 (the closing of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.3944 – a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). When testing this line, it will continue to go up with the target of 1.4015 at the upper fractal (daily candle from 03/04/2021). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis – up - Fibonacci Levels – up - Volumes – up - Candle Analysis – up - Trend Analysis – up - Bollinger Bands – up - Weekly Chart – up General Conclusion: Today, the market may start moving up from the level of 1.3832 (the closing of Friday's daily candle) with a target of 1.3944 – a pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). When testing this line, it will continue to go up with the target of 1.4015 at the upper fractal (daily candle from 03/04/2021). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.3832 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may start moving down with a target of 1.3561 – a pullback level of 23.6% (the red dotted line). Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on March 8, 2021 2021-03-08 At the auction of the last five days, all major currencies, except for the Canadian dollar, declined against the US dollar. Thus, the main currency pair EUR/USD lost 1.28% in trading on March 1-5. In previous articles, I have repeatedly drawn attention to the fact that the US currency has recovered and the US dollar is strengthening across a wide range of the foreign exchange market, compensating for the losses incurred before. The essence of this remains unchanged — the US dollar went on the offensive and changed its recent downward trend to an upward trend. The main trading event of the first spring week was certainly the data on the US labor market. Investors were waiting with interest for Friday's reports from the Department of Employment to understand the pace of recovery of the world's leading economy from restrictions and various types of blockages caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. I will admit honestly that Friday's labor reports for February turned out to be very strong. Thus, the number of newly created jobs in the world's leading economy increased by as much as 379 thousand, although the consensus forecast assumed an increase in new jobs by only 182 thousand. Although this figure seemed quite large, especially after the previous figure of 49,000, the actual value for February was really impressive. As for the unemployment rate, after a sharp drop in January from the previous 6.7% to 6.3%, it seemed good that this indicator remained at the same level. This is exactly what the experts expected. However, in February, unemployment in the United States continued to decline and reached the level of 6.2%. No matter what anyone says in their speeches (even the head of the Fed, Powell), it is necessary to base and draw conclusions based on actual indicators, and two of the most important of them — Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate, were so stylish that they left no doubt that the US economy is recovering faster than expected by the monetary men from the Fed and many market participants. As for the Fed's colleagues from the European Central Bank (ECB), they are marking time, repeating the conditions for supporting and financing the eurozone economy under the PEPP program, that is, large-scale bond purchases in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. This Thursday, March 10, the next meeting of the ECB will be held, following which the decision of the European Central Bank on interest rates will be announced, followed by a press conference of ECB President Christine Lagarde. With a high degree of probability, we will not hear or learn anything new. Most likely, rates will remain at their current values, and the ECB's rhetoric will remain "dovish", that is, extremely soft, where all the hardships for the European economy will be reduced to the ill-fated and continuing coronavirus epidemic. Well, it's time to turn your attention to the price charts of the EUR/USD currency pair and let's start with the results of the week that ended. Weekly 
As already noted at the beginning of the article, the past week has confirmed the current superiority of the US dollar over the single European currency, and repeated assumptions and forecasts about the decline and sales of the main currency pair of the Forex market have fully justified themselves. The technical picture also fully reflects the downward scenario. As expected a week earlier, the circled reversal pattern of the "Shooting Star" candle analysis did not go unnoticed and began to be worked out by the bidders. As a result, the euro bears fulfilled their tasks, namely, they lowered the exchange rate below the important psychological level of 1.2000 and broke through fairly strong support at 1.1952. The closing of the last week's trading with the formation of a large bearish candle at 1.1914 creates the prerequisites for a subsequent decline, the target of which is the area of 1.1830-1.1800. However, for this purpose, it will be necessary to pass one more far difficult level of 1.1900. Given the strong bearish sentiment on the pair, it is quite possible to do this. As for the players on the rise, their positions now look much weaker than a week earlier. For trading on EUR/USD to come under the control of the bulls, they need to return the rate above 1.2000, then continue to rise and close the week above the red line of the Ichimoku Tenkan indicator, which is at 1.2220. Given the relentless pressure, which is also helped by the bearish divergence of the MACD indicator, it will be very difficult to do this. The ECB and the press conference of Christine Lagarde could help the euro bulls, however, it is unlikely that these events will radically change the situation since nothing new can be expected from the ECB. Daily 
This chart clearly shows a strong and confident breakdown of the support level of 1.1952. Moreover, during Friday's decline, the pair fell even below the mark of 1.1900 and showed the minimum trading values on March 5 at 1.1893, but bounced back from this level. However, the bears have already conducted the first test for the breakdown of 1.1900, and now each new attempt to go down this mark will have a much better chance of success. If the quote is fixed by one or more candles under 1.1952, on a pullback to the selected and already broken zone, you can prepare for sales, which remain the main trading recommendation for the euro/dollar. I will indicate more specific prices for opening short positions in tomorrow's EUR/USD review, taking into account the consideration of smaller time intervals. In the meantime, I suggest focusing on the price zone of 1.1950-1.1985, and in the event of a pullback of the pair to these prices, consider opening deals for sale. Forex forecast 03/08/2021 on EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USDX from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-08 Let's take a look at the technical picture of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY and USDX at the beginning of the trading week.
Author's today's articles: Mihail Makarov  - Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Ivan Aleksandrov  Ivan Aleksandrov
Subscription's options management Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
Edit data of subscription settings
Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely,
Analysts Service | If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the
InstaForex Toll free numbers right now:
|  | InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. InstaForex Group members include regulated companies in Europe, Russia and British Virgin Islands. This letter may contain personal information for access to your InstaForex trading account, so for the purpose of safety it is recommended to delete this data from the history. If you have received this letter by mistake, please contact InstaForex Customer Relations Department. |
No comments:
Post a Comment