| Elliott wave analysis of USD/CHF for March 2, 2021 2021-03-02 
USD/CHF is testing key-resistance near 0.9174 and a break above here will open up for a continuation towards 1.0235 and possibly even higher towards 1.1000 longer term. Short-term we could see resistance at 0.9295 cap the upside for a temporary correction to 0.9041 before renewed upside pressure towards 1.0235 and possibly higher. R3: 0.9295 R2: 0.9258 R1: 0.9208 Pivot: 0.9174 S1: 0.9118 S2: 0.9075 S3: 0.9028 Trading recommendation: Buy CHF near 0.9041 and place your stop at 0.8930 GBP/USD. March 2. COT report. Traders are waiting for the draft budget for 2021 from the British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak 2021-03-02 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.3988, a rebound from it, a reversal in favor of the US currency, and resumed the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3895), under which the close was made this morning. Thus, the process of falling quotes of the pair can now be continued in the direction of the next level of 1.3820 and even further down. Meanwhile, the reasons for such a serious strengthening of the US dollar are difficult to find in the pound/dollar pair. Earlier, I said that the growth of the dollar raises questions in the euro/dollar pair. The US dollar has been falling for a long period, and now that it has finally started to rise, this event may be due to technical reasons. After all, there are no reasons for a trend correction. Traders simply fix part of the profit, the rate is rolled back and then a new trend movement begins. Thus, now a corrective fall could begin for both pairs. To be more precise, for the euro/dollar pair, it began at the very beginning of January, and now it has only resumed. In the future, it is quite possible to expect a further drop in quotes up to the level of 1.3000, which will be approximately 50% of the total 11-month growth of the pair. Also, everything can end up falling by 600-800 points, as it was in September 2020, after which the growth process of the pair will be resumed. On Monday, the UK published a report on business activity in the manufacturing sector, however, it had the same impact on traders as similar reports in the US and the European Union. Tomorrow, British Finance Minister Rishi Sunak is due to present a draft budget for 2021, in which the greatest interest is caused by government programs to support businesses, without which the unemployment rate could rise sharply in the coming months. GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a small growth process after the "bullish" divergence was formed at the CCI indicator. However, the divergence was against the trend, so soon the pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and resumed the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.3850 and the ascending trend line, which still characterizes the mood of traders as "bullish". GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes closed under the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084), which now allows us to count on a slight drop in quotes, but more important now are the data from the hourly and 4-hour charts. GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Monday, the news from the UK and the US did not have a strong impact on traders. The information background was generally weak. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: On March 2, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States are empty, so there will be no information background today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from February 23 on the British pound was extremely eloquent. During the last reporting week, speculators opened 7,243 new long contracts and closed almost 2 thousand short contracts. Thus, their mood has become sharply more "bullish", which fully coincides with what is happening in the market for the pound/dollar pair. Only in the following days (which were not included in the report) did the fall of the British pound begin, so the next COT report will be of interest. So far, the overall picture remains in favor of the British, as the category of "Non-commercial" traders continues to increase long contracts. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It is recommended to buy the British dollar on Tuesday in case of a rebound from the level of 1.3850 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.3979. It was recommended to sell the pound sterling at the rebound from the level of 1.3988 with the targets of 1.3895 and 1.3820 on the hourly chart. The first goal has been achieved, now we support transactions with the second goal. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to provide current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. March 2. COT report. The inertial growth of the dollar or the beginning of new large-scale growth of the US currency? 2021-03-02 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On March 1, the EUR/USD pair continued the fall of quotes. The closing of the pair's exchange rate under the corrective level of 23.6% (1.2046) allows us to count on a further drop in quotes in the direction of the next Fibo level of 0.0% (1.1952). But the very fall of the pair is already a serious surprise. In the last few days, there have been several news items that could have a beneficial effect on the dollar, but this is an open question. Such a fall, during which there are no pullbacks or corrections, could be caused either by some extremely important event or by a large-scale strategy of traders. If traders for any reason decided that they would buy dollars in the near future, this could cause such a strong growth of the dollar. However, it is still unclear exactly what events could have changed the mood of traders so sharply to "bearish". The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and strong statistics from America are significant factors, but doubts remain. On Monday, the European Union released the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, which practically did not differ from the previous value. The ISM manufacturing index in the US was also higher than the forecast – 60.8, the same applies to the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector – 58.6. However, given that the pair either stood still or was in the process of falling all day, it can be assumed that traders did not pay much attention to these reports. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes fell to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal of the pair in favor of the EU currency and some growth in the direction of the level of 1.2223. Closing quotes below the level of 161.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the next corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Today, the divergence is not observed in any of the indicators. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the third breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, and this time it does not look false. Thus, the fall in quotes can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1822). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On March 1, the European Union and the United States released indices of business activity in the areas of production, as well as a speech by Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - index of consumer prices (10:00 GMT). On March 2, the European Union will release an inflation report, and in the United States - the calendar of economic events will be empty. Most likely, the influence of the fundamental background will be low today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the third week in a row, it turns out to be very calm. There are no major changes in the mood of traders. The most important category of Non-commercial traders opened 6.5 thousand long and 6.6 thousand short contracts. The "Commercial" category of traders opened 15 thousand long and 17 thousand short contracts. That is, in general, during the reporting week, the major players made purchases and sales in equal proportions. In the long term, the euro continues to show growth, and the number of long contracts focused on the hands of speculators exceeds the number of short contracts by three times. Therefore, to break the upward trend, it is necessary that speculators massively open sales, which is not yet observed. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: Sales of the pair were recommended at the close of quotes under the Fibo level of 23.6% (1.2046) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1952. Also, sales of the pair are recommended when closing under the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart with the same goal. New purchases of the pair are recommended when the quotes rebound from the level of 161.8% (1.2027) on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.2046 and 1.2104. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to provide current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 2, 2021 2021-03-02 The US dollar was able to hold its previously gained positions, but there were no drastic changes observed in the market. Considering yesterday's economic calendar, we had the publication of Europe's final data on the business activity index in the manufacturing sector, where growth was recorded from 54.8 points to 57.9 points. However, the growth forecast by 0.2 did not affect the Euro currency in terms of dynamics and its strengthening. At the same time, weak data on the credit market was also released in the UK, where consumer loans declined by 2.4 billion pounds. In total, the lending market has fallen by 6.2 billion pounds for the past five months. Thus, so far, there is no reason to resume its growth. In defense of the pound sterling, it can be noted that the data published synchronously on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector turned out to be better than the preliminary estimate – the index rose from 54.1 points to 55.1 points. But unfortunately, nothing significant has happened in the market even with this margin of error. The EUR/USD pair managed to update Friday's local low. As a result, the price approached the area of the psychological level of 1.2000. The GBP/USD pair continues to focus below the area of the psychological level of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050, leaving sellers expecting for the pound to further weaken. 
Trading recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 2, 2021 Today, important statistics will be published. The main data is the preliminary estimate of inflation in the Eurozone, which is expected to continue rising from 0.9% to 1.0%. Such optimistic expectations are likely to provoke the European Central Bank to think about slightly adjusting the monetary policy, namely by its tightening. If so, investors' interest will rise, which leads to an increase in bond yields. All things considered, this can positively affect the euro's growth. 10:00 Universal time - EU inflation Looking at the EUR/USD pair trading chart, one can observe that the price is moving within the deviation of the level of 1.2000, from which the volume of short positions were lowered. This can result in a natural price rebound in the direction of 1.2070. An alternative scenario of the market development considers the prolongation of the January correction. In this case, the quote must stay below the 1.1980 level in the H4 time frame. After that, it may break through the local low of 1.1952 from February 5. 
As for the GBP/USD pair trading chart, it can be seen that the quote has already broken through last week's low, where the area of the psychological level is recovered in the market as resistance. In this case, the previously set downward interest towards the level of 1.3750 is likely to be maintained. 
Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for March 2, 2021 2021-03-02 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). On Tuesday, the market from the level of 1.2048 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to continue moving down with the target of 1.1975 – the 50% retracement level (red dotted line). After testing this level, the price may start working up with the target of 1.2075 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). 
Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: - Indicator analysis - down;
- Fibonacci levels - down;
- Volumes - down;
- Candlestick analysis - up;
- Trend analysis - down;
- Bollinger bands - up;
- Weekly chart - down.
General conclusion: Today, the price from the level of 1.2048 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to continue moving down with the target of 1.1975 – the 50% retracement level (red dotted line). After testing this level, the price may start working up with the target of 1.2075 - the historical resistance level (blue dotted line). Unlikely scenario: the price from the level of 1.2048 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) will try to make a downward movement with the target of 1.2023 - the lower fractal (daily candle from 17.02.2021). After testing this level, the price may start working up with the target of 1.2102 – the 76.4% retracement level (yellow dotted line). GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 2. COT reports. Pound still under pressure. Next target is 1.3940 2021-03-02 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Yesterday there was only one normal signal to sell the pound in the morning. The US session did not provide a convenient entry point. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. In my morning forecast, I drew attention to the 1.3994 level and advised you to open short positions from it. We could clearly see how the bulls tried to settle above resistance at 1.3994, being able to return creates an excellent signal to open short positions in sustaining the decline. However, it was not possible to reach support at 1.3921 for the first time, although about 3 points were not enough to test this level. Therefore, we can safely say that the signal has worked 100%. It was not possible to get an adequate entry point for long positions from the 1.3921 level, since this support range was strongly vague in the afternoon. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. The demand for the pound remained, while the buyers' appetite continued to grow. The positive detail has significantly grown, thanks to a large increase in long positions, while short positions remained almost unchanged. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 23 revealed that short commercial positions decreased while long positions sharply increased. Bulls are active even in the area of annual highs, which only accelerates the upward trend. However, you need to understand that this report only considers prices before the pound started to fall in the middle of last week, so the picture is slightly different. In the medium term, the downward correction observed last week will only play into the hands of bulls. The anticipation of a quarantine rollback in March will support the pound, and so do new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic, which will be announced by Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak this week. Long non-commercial positions rose from 60,269 to 68,266. At the same time, short non-commercials fell from 38,102 to 37,288, which retains good prospects for the pound to continue its gains. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 30,978 from 22,167 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.4067 against 1.3914. The observed downward correction in the pound will only attract new buyers. 
As for the technical forecast, the initial task is to return and consolidate at the resistance level of 1.3907, which the bulls missed in today's Asian session. Testing this level from top to bottom creates a signal to open long positions in hopes to form an upward correction, which will open a direct way to the high of 1.3994, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the 1.4062 level, however, we can not reach it without a new portion of good fundamental reports. If the downward correction of GBP/USD continues this morning, then it is best not to rush into long positions, but to wait for a false breakout in the support area of 1.3840. If buyers are not active, then I recommend waiting for the 1.3775 low to be tested and buy the pound from there on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The more the pound falls, the more attractive it is for new buyers. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Important fundamental reports will not be released today, and judging by the trend that was observed since the middle of last week, the pound may still be under pressure. Bears will have control over the market as long as trading is below resistance at 1.3907. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will weigh on the pair and lead to forming a new downward trend to the support area of 1.3840, as the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the pair surpasses it or not. A breakthrough and being able to test this level from the bottom up can create another entry point into short positions in hopes of pulling down GBP/USD to the area of a low of 1.3775, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows during the European session and bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.3907, then I recommend not to rush to sell, but wait until the 1.3994 high is renewed. You can open short positions from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next big resistance is seen at the 1.4062 area. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a succeeding decline for the pound in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator around 1.3950 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. A breakout of the lower boundary at 1.3890 will increase the pressure on the pair. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 2. COT reports. Euro sellers broke through support at 1.2037, now aiming for a new low (1.2003) 2021-03-02 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Yesterday, three signals for entering the market appeared at once. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and break down all the entry points. In the first half of the day, the bulls repeatedly tried to rise above resistance at 1.2093, but the pair rebounded off this range each time, indicating a possible succeeding decline for the euro, which happened. As a result, the fall only stopped in the support area of 1.2037, from where I recommended buying the euro immediately upon a rebound. The upward movement was 20 points. In the afternoon, another false breakout was formed in the support area of 1.2037, which caused the euro to rise by 25 points. However, the enthusiasm of the buyers ended there. Before talking about the prospects for the EUR/USD movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. The COT report for February 23 revealed that there were no significant changes in the positions of large players, however, the growth of short positions shows how the buyers' advantage is starting to fade. This time, it was not possible to quickly win back the sharp decline in the pair, which we have observed since the middle of last week. The sharp rise in bond yields in many developed countries favors the US dollar, as investors expect America to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. Buyers of risky assets should not rush to return to the market, and it is better to wait for lower prices. A good advantage for the euro is the moment when quarantine and isolation measures begin to ease in European countries: Germany has already announced its plan in this direction, but it has not yet come to the point. It is also necessary to wait for the moment when the service sector will start working again in full force, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and will also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose to 228,501 from 222,895, while short non-commercial positions rose from 82,899 to 90,136. As a result, the total non-commercial net position fell again from 140,006 to 138,365 for the second consecutive week. The weekly closing price was 1.2164 against 1.2132 a week earlier. 
Today we have a fairly large amount of fundamental data: reports on the German labor market and inflation in the eurozone will be published in the first half of the day, and closer to the middle of the US session, Federal Reserve representatives will speak. If the eurozone reports turn out to be better than economists' forecasts, then the pressure on the euro may ease, which will lead to a slight upward correction in the pair. This morning buyers will focus on surpassing and getting the pair to settle above the 1.2037 resistance, which they missed in today's Asian session. Testing this area from top to bottom creates an excellent signal to open long positions in euros in hopes to rise to a high of 1.2093, where I recommend taking profits. There are also moving averages that play on the side of sellers. Bulls will then aim for resistance at 1.2140. If buyers are not active during the European session, and the eurozone reports turn out to be disappointing: we can expect the euro to be under pressure and it could fall to the support area of 1.2003, where a divergence will be formed on the MACD indicator. Therefore, you can open long positions from this level immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next major support is seen at 1.1952. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: Bears broke through 1.2037 and we can expect a succeeding decline for the euro as long as trading is carried out below this range. You can open new short positions in the first half of the day amid the downward trend, but only do so if a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2037. This scenario may come true in case we receive weak data on inflation in the euro area as well as the labor market in Germany. A disappointing report will significantly affect the market and cause large sellers to return. In this case, the closest target will be the low of 1.2003 - as the pair's succeeding direction depends on whether the pair surpasses it or not. A breakthrough of this level will lead to a larger will to pull down EUR/USD and lead us to a low of 1.1952, where I recommend taking profits. If we continue to observe an upward trend in the first half of the day, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2037, then it is best to hold back from short positions until the test of the area of 1.2093, where the moving averages that play on the side of sellers pass. From there, you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in hopes of pulling down the pair by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2140. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which shows how sellers are in control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2020 area will lead to a new wave of decline for the euro. A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2060 area will cause the pair to rise. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 2, 2021 2021-03-02 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has hit the price overbalance level located at 1.3989, but did not move above it due to the intense bearish pressure and reversed. The bears have managed to make a new local low at the level of 1. 3865 and now this level will act as an intraday technical support. The next target for bears is seen at the level of 1.3780 - 1.375. On the other hand, only a sustained bounce above the level of 1.4080 would confirm the correction is terminated and the up trend is resumed. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4421 WR2 - 1.4316 WR1 - 1.4091 Weekly Pivot - 1.3990 WS1 - 1.3751 WS2 - 1.3640 WS3 - 1.3428 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 2, 2021 2021-03-02 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has made a new local low at the level of 1.2015 after bulls failed to bounce higher above the intraday technical resistance located at the level of 1.2091. Despite the oversold market conditions, to bulls are not so much active yet, so the up move was clearly corrective in nature. Moreover, the momentum is still weak and negative, which suggest the down cycle has now been completed yet. The next target for bears is the level of 1.1965. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the lows from 4th of February located at the level of 1.1953, which is the key technical support. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2341 WR2 - 1.2290 WR1 - 1.2158 Weekly Pivot - 1.2111 WS1 - 1.1978 WS2 - 1.1931 WS3 - 1.1796 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1953 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. 
Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 03/02/21 2021-03-02 Yesterday, the pair moved up, tested the 8 average EMA of 1.3974 (blue thin line) and then rolled back down. Moving down, the price tested 21 average EMA - 1.3890 (black thin line). The market closed the daily candle at 1.3921. The downward movement will continue and the economic calendar news is not expected today. Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue moving down from the level of 1.3921 (the close of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3815 at the pullback level of 14.6% (the red dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue moving up with the target of 1.3943 at the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). 
Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - down - Fibonacci Levels - down - Volumes - up - Candlestick Analysis - up - Trend Analysis - down - Bollinger Bands - down - Weekly Chart - down General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving down from the level of 1.3921 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3815 at the pullback level of 14.6% (the red dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue moving up with the target of 1.3943 at the pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). Unlikely scenario: from the level of 1.4060 (the close of yesterday's daily candle), it will try to continue moving down with the target of 1.3815 at the pullback level of 14.6% (red dotted line). When testing this level, it is possible to continue going down with the target of 1.3734 at the support line (the red thick line). Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 2. COVID-19 is retreating. Euro declines amid strong US data. 2021-03-02 
The coronavirus is clearly retreating. Overall incidence has dropped to below 300,000 per day, and there is good progress in the United States and Britain. Perhaps, vaccination is already taking its toll. A significant decrease in new cases can also be observed in Western Europe, particularly in France and Spain. 
EUR/USD: Euro declined after the release of strong US data. According to the report, the ISM industrial index came out at 60.8 points this February, which is much better than the forecasts of economists. Another important report will be released on Wednesday. Open short positions from 1.2108 to 1.2153. Important support levels for the euro are 1.2000 and 1.1950. AUD/USD. Long positions remains to be the priority 2021-03-02 The results of RBA's March meeting, which were announced during the Asian session, failed to support the Australian dollar – the AUD/USD pair stayed in the middle of the 0.77 price level. However, the pair has recently increased volatility. Initially, buyers managed to reach the psychologically important level of 0.8000, but could not consolidate above this target. After that, the AUD/USD bears took control amid the US dollar's general strengthening. As a result, the pair collapsed by more than 300 points in 2 trading days. The downward pullback from the resistance level of 0.8000 was quite natural, although slightly rapid: the Australian dollar was in the 80th figure area for only three hours. After that, the pair's bears offered counter resistance, taking advantage of the US dollar index growth. Currently, the pair is stuck in a flat, while the results of today's RBA meeting were both predictable and extremely contradictory. The words of the regulator's members was more restrained than optimistic, despite the success of the Australian economy. In addition, the RBA announced yesterday a doubling of the pace of buying long-term bonds, which put additional pressure on the AUD. In any case, the AUD/USD pair holds back the blows and maintains its positions – unlike other dollar pairs (in particular, EUR/USD and GBP/USD), where the greenback was way more superior. 
Let's talk again about RBA's results of the March meeting. As expected, the regulator kept the parameters of monetary policy in the same form, so traders' main focus was on the rhetoric of the accompanying statement. RBA members' rhetoric was mixed: The central bank was trying to maintain a balance, although traders clearly expected to hear more optimistic rhetoric given the latest macroeconomic reports. On the one hand, the Reserve Bank acknowledged that the Australian economy is recovering at a stronger pace than previously expected. In particular, wages in the second half of the year are expected to be significantly higher than at the current moment. The regulator also noted a positive trend in the growth of the number of employees and a decrease in the unemployment rate. These are actually all positive remarks, but the accompanying statements were restrained and dovish. The regulator clearly stated again that traders should not expect tightening monetary policy anytime soon. In particular, they indicated that it will consider raising the rate only when the key macroeconomic indicators (inflation and the labor market) reach their target levels, which will not happen until 2024 based on preliminary estimates. Accordingly, markets should not expect any decisive action from the RBA over the next two to three years. They also emphasized that the Central Bank will continue to carefully monitor the situation with the yield of government bonds. In this context, the Central Bank reminded that it increased bond purchases on Monday. In other words, the results of the March meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia was not surprising, and at the same time, the main theses of the accompanying statement did not encourage the strengthening of the Australian currency. In this case, the Aussie continues to trade in the US dollar's path, which is guided by Treasury yields. However, geopolitical factors that also supported the US dollar disappeared: US airstrikes on the positions of pro-Iranian forces in Syria remained without a mirror response (Iran and Syria limited themselves to statements on the diplomatic line), and the US intelligence report on the assassination of an opposition Saudi journalist did not lead to personal sanctions against members of the royal family, including against the crown prince, who was directly accused of organizing the liquidation of Khashoggi. Thus, the focus remained on the yield of US government bonds. It is worth noting that Treasury yields are growing "in spite of" rather than "due to". Fed members assure the markets that the regulator will allow the economy to "warm up" before starting to tighten monetary policy, although the parameters of monetary policy may only be changed in the direction of easing. Nevertheless, investors draw their own conclusions from the current situation, pushing bond yields up, while increasing the dollar's demand. The behavioral logic here is based on several forecasts of economists (in particular, Bloomberg Economics), who say that the US economy will reach pre-crisis levels in the second half of this year due to mass vaccinations against COVID-19, the adoption of a large-scale aid package by congressmen and the restoration of business activity. Such prospects, paired with the growth of inflation expectations, provoke rumors that the FRS, contrary to its own assurances, will be forced to curtail QE ahead of schedule and start considering raising the interest rate (not in 2024, as it is declared now, but much earlier). In view of such rumors, the yield of treasuries continues to go up – the yield of 10-year US bonds rose by 0.369 percentage points last month, which is the strongest growth rate since the 2016 collapse. 
Thus, the Australian dollar is caught between two factors. On the one hand, there is the US dollar, which continues to be situationally in demand, while on the other hand, there are numerous fundamental factors that provide indirect or direct support for the Australian currency. Among them are the RBA's wait-and-see attitude, growth of the commodity market, recovery of key macroeconomic indicators and the massive COVID vaccination in Australia. All this suggests that as soon as the USD dollar relaxes, the AUD will recover its lost points, returning to the borders of the 0.80 level. And although it is still too early to talk about breaking through this target, it is unlikely that AUD/USD buyers will test this resistance level again in the medium term. Therefore, the current recession can be used as a reason to open longs with the first target set at 0.7850 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily time frame). The main upward target is the level of 0.7950 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands in the same timeframe). Its breakdown will open the way to the borders of the 80th figure. Forex forecast 03/02/2021 on USD/CAD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-02 Let's take a look at the technical picture of USD/CAD, AUD/USD and NZD/USD on the daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Torben Melsted  Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Vladislav Tukhmenev  Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up." Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Mihail Makarov  - Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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