| GBP/USD. March 16. COT report. Boris Johnson admitted the mistake made at the first "lockdown" 2021-03-16 GBP/USD – 1H. 
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency on Monday and consolidated under the corrective level of 50.0% (1.3900). This was followed by the rebound of the quotes from the same level and the resumption of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3820). However, if we take into account the fact that over the past two weeks, the British dollar has been moving mostly sideways, then I do not see the pound/dollar pair below the level of 1.3820. As in the case of the euro/dollar pair, this week, there will be several quite important events that can seriously affect the mood of traders. First, it's the Fed meeting on Wednesday, and second, it's the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. However, these events will occur tomorrow and the day after tomorrow. And today, the pair can continue to trade in the demo mode of the following days, that is, very sluggishly. The information background, by the way, corresponds to this movement of the pair. In the US today, reports on retail sales and industrial production will be released, which may cause interest among traders, however, I would not count on them very much. 30 to 40 points of movement is the maximum that these reports can cause. Meanwhile, sources close to the British Prime Minister said that Boris Johnson admitted the government's mistake with the first lockdown last spring. The source also reports that Johnson was let down by health advisers who misjudged the state of the National Health System. Sources also say that the high rate of vaccination is undoubtedly a credit to Johnson, but questions also remain about why the UK has the highest death rate from coronavirus in Europe and the fifth in the world? GBP/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed another drop to the upward trend line and this time it looks like a close will be performed under this line. Fixing the pair's rate at the same time and under the level of 1.3850 will allow traders to count on a slight drop in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3701). The rebound of quotes from the level of 1.3850 can still return the pair to an upward trend. GBP/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to be above the ascending trend line. In the long term, the "bullish" mood of traders is still preserved. Closing the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084) will work in favor of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812). GBP/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: There were no major reports or other events in the UK and US on Monday. The information background was practically absent on this day. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: US - retail trade volume change (12:30 GMT). US - change in industrial production (13:15 GMT). On Tuesday, the calendar of economic events in Britain is empty, but a couple of reports will be released in the US, which you can pay attention to. Strong numbers in these reports will help the dollar to rise to 1.3820. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
The latest COT report from March 9 on the British was quite interesting. A week earlier, I drew readers' attention to the fact that the nature of the COT reports on the euro and the pound were opposite. This time, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders in the UK also became more "bearish". During the reporting week, speculators closed 5.5 thousand long contracts and opened only 344 short contracts. Thus, the belief that the Briton will continue its growth is falling among the major players. But it is falling at a much weaker rate than that of the major players in the European market. So the British pound is much less likely to fall than the euro and much more likely to rise than the euro. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It is recommended to buy the British dollar if it closes above the Fibo level of 50.0% (1.3900) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3980. It is recommended to sell the pound if a close is made under the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.3820 and 1.3721. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. March 16. COT report. Traders are waiting for European inflation and the outcome of the Fed meeting 2021-03-16 EUR/USD – 1H. 
On March 15, the EUR/USD pair tried to continue falling after it made a consolidation under the upward trend corridor. However, this fall ended near the previous low, and the pair has been moving exclusively sideways for the last 20 hours. Thus, I can say that on Monday, traders were trading the pair rather sluggishly. Consequently, the information background was unconvincing and did not interest traders. By the way, it should be noted that the information background was really weak. There were no economic reports during the day in either the US or Europe. There were no important speeches, no important political news, and so on. Even on the recently sensational topic of the yield of 10-year treasuries in the United States, there was no reaction from traders. Thus, now traders are waiting for new information that will allow them to open new trades. It is unlikely that they will wait for it today when the calendar of economic events is again empty. Accordingly, today traders may be impressed by the topic of failed vaccination in the European Union, although the euro currency has already fallen in price in the first two and a half months of 2021, and is also preparing for the Fed meeting this week, which will take place tomorrow. Some analysts believe that Jerome Powell will announce an increase in the growth rate of the US economy, but at the same time, the monetary policy itself is likely to remain unchanged. Thus, the key event of the week will not be the Fed meeting, but the speech of Jerome Powell. No less important will be tomorrow's report on inflation in the European Union. Let me remind you that all the major central banks in the world are aiming for 2% inflation, and the growth in bond yields in the EU and the US suggests that inflation will jump up in the near future. European inflation forecast for Wednesday is 1.1% y/y. EUR/USD – 4H. 
On the 4-hour chart, after the formation of a bearish divergence in the CCI indicator, the quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US dollar and continue the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Fixing the pair's exchange rate above the level of 161.8% (1.2027) will work in favor of the euro and resume the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2223. EUR/USD – Daily. 
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the mood on the traffic was "bearish". The descending trend line confirms this. Fixing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 261.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566). EUR/USD – Weekly. 
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On March 15, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and America were empty, so the influence of the information background was absent on this day. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: EU - index of business sentiment from the ZEW Institute (10:00 GMT). US - retail trade volume change (12:30 GMT). US - change in industrial production (13:15 GMT). On March 16, in the US, you can pay attention to both reports, but the last similar reports were ignored by traders. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: 
Last Friday, the next COT report was released and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be quite aggressive. This time, the "Non-commercial" category of traders reduced 14,000 long contracts on their hands and opened 12,000 new short contracts. It follows that the mood of speculators has become much more "bearish". Consequently, the chances of a further fall in the euro currency quotes are growing. Other categories of traders are of much less concern to us since it is speculators who set the tone of trading. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to sell the pair again at the closing of quotes under the ascending corridor with a target of 1.1873 on the hourly chart. These transactions should now be kept open. I recommend buying the pair when closing above the level of 100.0% (1.1952) on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2021 and 1.2063. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on March 16. COT reports. Euro traded in the channel in the absence of benchmarks. Bulls aim to surpass 1.1939 2021-03-16 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Absolutely nothing happened yesterday afternoon. There were no signals to enter the market as the intraday volatility was at the level of 28 points. Trading volume was also very low. The lack of benchmarks and important fundamental data ahead of a rather interesting Federal Reserve meeting forces traders to take a wait-and-see attitude. Before talking about the prospects for the EUR/USD movement, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. The COT report for March 9 clearly shows a sharp decline in long positions and a very large increase in short positions, which indicates a continued shift in the market towards sellers of risky assets. This is confirmed by the euro's decline, which we have seen since the end of February. Bond yields in many developed countries continue to sharply rise, which plays in favor of the dollar, as investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the greenback more attractive. The European Central Bank's recent meeting did not change the market, as the decisions made were not critical and did not affect investor sentiment in any way. It is best not to rush into euro purchases, but to wait for lower prices. The growth in the incidence of coronavirus is another factor of medium-term pressure on the euro. The slow vaccination program for the population is pushing the cancellation of quarantine measures to a later date. We can only expect an improvement in the economic outlook for the eurozone once restrictions are lifted and the service sector is restored, which will return the medium-term trend to strengthening EUR/USD. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 222,655 to 207,588, while short non-commercial positions rose from 96,667 to 105,624. As a result, the total non-commercial net position declined again for the fourth consecutive week, from 125,988 to 101,964. The weekly closing price was 1.1812 against 1.2048 a week earlier. 
From a technical point of view, nothing has changed, since volatility was at a fairly low level yesterday. We can speak about regaining control of the market only after a breakthrough and once resistance at 1.1939 has been tested from top to bottom. A good signal for opening long positions could be formed at this level, in hopes to resume the bull market. Moving averages, playing on the side of sellers, also pass there. If the data on the index of sentiment in the business environment in Germany and the eurozone from the ZEW institute turn out to be better than economists' forecasts, then it will be possible to count on a larger increase in EUR/USD, in hopes for it to return to last week's high in the 1.1989 area, where I recommend taking profit. If the bulls are not active in the 1.1939 area, or the euro is under pressure again in the first half of the day, then it would be best to hold back from long positions until the test of the larger support at 1.1884, from which you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next major level is seen in the 1.1838 area. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The euro will remain under pressure as long as trading is kept below 1.1939. Weak reports on inflation in Italy and ZEW indices may lead to forming a false breakout at this level, which will return pressure to the pair. In this case, the nearest target will be support at 1.1884, where I recommend taking profit. The next major support is seen around 1.1838, where bulls' activity can be seen. If the euro is growing and there is no activity in the 1.1939 area, then it would be best to hold back from short positions until a larger resistance at 1.1989 has been tested, from which you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The next major level is seen only around 1.2047. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is under the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the bears' attempt to maintain control of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands Volatility is very low, which does not provide entry points for the indicator. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on March 16. COT reports. Pound continues to lose ground preparing for a new wave of decline. Bears aim for 1.3844 2021-03-16 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Several signals to enter the market appeared yesterday. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the deals: it is clear that a false breakout in the 1.3942 area, after the bulls failed to rise above this level, led to creating a signal to open short positions in continuing the downward trend observed at the end of last week. As a result, the pair fell to the 1.3882 target, which brought around 60 points of profit. A false breakout was formed in the support area of 1.3882 during the US session, where I advised you to open long positions. However, there was no major upward movement from this level and the trading day closed just above this range. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market. The pressure on the pound continues to persist, which is clearly seen in the decline in the weekly closing price. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for March 9 revealed a reduction in both short and long commercial positions. This time, the closing of long positions became quite strong, which led to a reduction in the positive delta. The main problem for risky assets, which can be attributed to the pound, is still the growth in the yield of US bonds, which provides serious support to the US dollar. However, in the medium term, buyers of the pound will certainly take advantage of this moment to enter the market at more attractive prices. The beginning of quarantine measures in March will continue to provide the main support for the pound, as well as new measures to help the UK population in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. Long non-commercial positions declined from 65,138 to 61,271. At the same time, short non-commercials declined from 29,056 to 27,360, indicating a succeeding decline for the pair. As a result, the non-commercial net position fell to 33,911 from 36,082 a week earlier. The weekly closing price dropped to 1.3821 against 1.3928. The observed downward correction in the pound will attract new buyers. 
As for the technical picture, the bulls' initial task is to return and settle at resistance at 1.3903, which the bulls missed during yesterday's European session. Moving averages, playing on the side of bears, also pass slightly above this level. Surpassing this range and testing it from top to bottom will lead to creating an excellent entry point into long positions in hopes for GBP/USD to rise to the 1.3951 area, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the 1.4000 level, however, we can't reach it without a new batch of good fundamental reports. If the downward correction of GBP/USD continues until the morning, then it would be best not to rush into long positions, but to wait for a false breakout in the 1.3844 area. If bulls are not active, then I recommend waiting for the 1.3783 low to be tested and buy the pound from there on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day. The more the pound falls, the more attractive it is for new buyers. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The UK will not release important fundamental reports today, and judging by the trend observed since the end of last week, pressure on the pound may continue. The bears will regain control of the market as long as trading is below resistance at 1.3903. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will return pressure to the pair and result in creating a new downward movement to the support area of 1.3844, being able to test it will keep the trend towards strengthening the US dollar. A breakthrough of this level with a reverse test from the bottom up creates another entry point into short positions in hopes to pull down GBP/USD to a low like 1.3783, where I recommend taking profits. In case the pair grows during the European session and bears are not active in the resistance area at 1.3903, then I recommend not to rush to sell, but to wait until the 1.3951 high is updated. You can open short positions from there immediately on a rebound, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The next big resistance is only seen around 1.4000 from which one can act in a similar way. 
Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the downward correction will continue. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the average border of the indicator in the area of 1.3895 will lead to an upward correction for the pound. A breakout of the lower boundary at 1.3855 will increase the pressure on the pair. Description of indicators - Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
- Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
- MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
- Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
- Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
- Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
- Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
- Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
Trading plan for EUR/USD on March 16. Euro rally halted after the Fed meeting yesterday. 2021-03-16 
COVID-19 incidents finally declined in Europe. After tightening the quarantine measures, daily cases in France and Italy dropped noticeably. But with regards to vaccination, aside from the pace being slow, many EU countries stopped using AstraZeneca's vaccine due to its side effects and low efficacy. 
EUR/USD: Euro stopped rallying after the Fed meeting yesterday. This is because the US central bank decided to keep its current monetary policy unchanged as was expected. Now, EUR/USD is trading around the lower border of the local range, and is likely to continue its earlier downward movement. Open long positions from 1.1920 to 1.1865. But if you are more inclined towards the dollar, open short positions at 1.1910, or from 1.1830. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for March 16, 2021 2021-03-16 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has reversed from the level of 1.4001 and broke below the technical support located at the level of 1.3857 as well. The pull is now deep and if bulls will not resume to up move, then the bears will likely continue the down move below 1.3857 towards the swing low located at 1.3780. The market is coming off the overbought conditions as well and the momentum indicator is negative and pointing down, which confirms short-term bearish outlook for Cable. Please notice the 50 DMA located at the level of 1.3793 might be some kind of support for the price. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4220 WR2 - 1.4106 WR1 - 1.4016 Weekly Pivot - 1.3905 WS1 - 1.3808 WS2 - 1.3702 WS3 - 1.3608 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend despite the face, that is back inside the main ascending channel. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4224 and this was the higher high in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. 
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for March 16, 2021 2021-03-16 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating above the technical support located at the level of 1.1908 and below the local technical resistance seen at 1.1965, but if the price will not go back above the trend line, then the bears will likely continue the down move below 1.1908 towards the swing low located at 1.1837. The market is coming off the overbought conditions as well and the momentum indicator is neutral, which confirms short-term bearish outlook for EUR/USD. Moreover, the recent move down from the top located at 1.2349 is the biggest correction since March 3rd, 2020, so the price overbalance is done. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2176 WR2 - 1.2081 WR1 - 1.2020 Weekly Pivot - 1.1926 WS1 - 1.1871 WS2 - 1.1786 WS3 - 1.1716 Trading Recommendations: Despite the recent correction to 61% Fibonacci retracement of the last wave up the long term trend on EUR/USD pair remains up on monthly time frame chart, however the weekly time frame chart show the counter-trend corrective cycle is in progress. This corrective cycle has not been completed yet, because the key level for bulls is located at 1.1608. As long as the market trades above this level the up trend is valid and all of the down waves should be used to open long positions. 
Indicator analysis. GBP/USD daily review for March 16, 2021 2021-03-16 Trend analysis (fig. 1). On Tuesday, the pair will move down from the level of 1.3898 (closing level of yesterday's candlestick) to the target at 1.3816, which is the 14.6% fibo retracement level (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue its downward movement to the target of 1.3688 - the lower boundary of the Bollinger line (black dotted line).  fig. 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive analysis: - indicator analysis - down; - Fibonacci levels - down; - volumes - down; - candlestick analysis - down; - trend analysis - down; - Bollinger lines - down; - weekly chart - down. Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue its downward movement from the level of 1.3898 (closing level of yesterday's candlestick) with the target located at 1.3816, the retracement level of 14.6% (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may continue to move down to the target of 1.3688 - the lower boundary of the Bollinger line (black dotted line). Alternative scenario: the price will continue the downtrend from the level of 1.898 (closing level of yesterday's candlestick) with the target located at 1.3816, the retracement level of 14.6% (red dotted line). When testing this level, the price may start to move upwards with the target at 1.3944, the 85.4% retracement level (yellow dashed line). Trading plan for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on March 16, 2021 2021-03-16 The European currency showed a strong sideways movement yesterday, while the British one suddenly remembered about Brexit. In particular, the European Commission recalled this topic, which intends to initiate legal proceedings against the UK due to the alleged violations of the trade agreement of the said country. However, London denies such accusations. Even so, we should not make any rush conclusions, since this trial will be quite long and extremely difficult. Nevertheless, the grounds remained, and the pound slightly weakened. 
Today's key event will be the publication of US retail sales data, whose growth rate is expected to slow down from 7.4% to 5.5%. To some extent, this is a repetition of the European scenario, when retail sales literally collapsed after a sharp inflation growth. In general, things in the US slightly differ, as inflation has grown somewhat stronger than expected, but retail sales are expected to grow. However, it is clear that their growth can slow down, which is happening amid the increase in consumer prices. Such a situation is worsened by FOMC's meeting tomorrow, during which the situation with inflation will naturally be considered. And to consider it in isolation from consumer activity is somehow not very productive or meaningless. At the same time, it should be noted that the expected scale of the slowdown in retail sales growth is much more significant than the inflation growth. Here, we are talking at least about a decline in company profits, which can cause a halt in the recovery of the labor market, and even lead to a new round of unemployment growth. If so, the Fed will have to do something about it. Retail Sales (United States): 
However, one should not expect the US dollar to sharply collapse. This is because the overall situation in the United States looks much better than in Europe. Moreover, the national currency may be supported by the industrial production data, which is currently down by -1.8%. This decline can be replaced by an increase of 0.9%. It is important not only the fact that the decline changed to growth, but also the fact that the last time the US industry showed growth was as early as August 2019. As for Europe, the industry is still declining, which continues much longer than in the United States. Industrial Manufacturing (United States): 
The Euro currency formed a narrow range of 1.1910/1.1940 on the market yesterday and the quote develops near it. We can assume that this is a cumulative process, which may lead to a natural surge of speculative activity. The trading method for this fluctuation is based on the tactic of breaking a particular border. 
The GBP/USD pair adheres to the downward interest, which resulted in the breakdown of last Friday's local low. We can assume that if the price holds below the level of 1.3850, the price of the pound will further weaken. 
AUD/USD. RBA minutes, Australian debt market and AUD weakness 2021-03-16 Reserve Bank of Australia's minutes of their last meeting was published during the Asian session on Tuesday. However, AUD/USD traders ignored it, unlike the Australian debt market – government bond yields declined in response to the dovish remarks in the document. To some extent, Australia is repeating the "American way". The main macroeconomic indicators are rising ahead of the forecasted values, and along with it are growing optimistic expectations regarding Australia's economic recovery. In response to such trends, the yield on Australian government bonds is also growing. For instance, the yield on 10-year securities was 0.97% when this year began, and then fluctuated in the range of 1.7% - 1.8% this month. Similar dynamics was shown by the 3-year bonds. The target yield for these securities is 0.10%, but it was consistently higher than this target from the beginning of the year to March, when the RBA responded. 
Contrary to the American regulator, the Australian Central Bank is trying to limit the upward trend, resorting not only to verbal interventions, but also to very specific steps. At the last meeting, the RBA members made it clear that they would continue to monitor the situation with the yield of government bonds, preventing its excessive growth. So far, the Central Bank has only one lever of influence – increasing the volume of purchases of bonds. So, the Reserve Bank purchased three-year government bonds for 3 billion Australian dollars at the end of February, as the yield exceeded the target of 0.10% again. As a result, the yield of these securities declined to 0.086%. Today's publication of RBA minutes also had a corresponding impact on the Australian debt market. As investors reacted to the growth of key macroeconomic indicators, they came to the conclusion that the regulator will begin tightening the parameters of monetary policy earlier than planned. In turn, the Central Bank representatives denied these assumptions with enviable regularity. We can note that RBA's minutes became part of this kind of "correspondence dialogue" between the Central Bank and investors. So, the Reserve Bank made it clear once again that traders should not expect the monetary policy to be tightened any time soon. In particular, the regulator indicated that it will consider raising the rate only when key macroeconomic indicators (primarily inflation and the labor market) reach their target levels. Based on preliminary estimates, this will not happen until 2024. Accordingly, markets should not expect any decisive action from the RBA over the next two to three years. In any case, members of the Australian regulator emphasized that the Central Bank will continue to carefully monitor the situation with the yield of government bonds. Against this background, the Central Bank recalled that it increased purchases of bonds ahead of the meeting. On the one hand, the published minutes was not surprising, as almost all the statements were already said at the end of the RBA's March meeting. On the other hand, it was able to reduce the yield on Australian bonds. This was reflected in the positions of the Australian dollar, which was under pressure during today's Asian session. 
However, the AUD/USD bears could not take advantage of the current situation due to two factors: First, the US dollar index shows weakness ahead of tomorrow's Fed meeting, and second, China published quite strong macroeconomic reports yesterday, indicating the recovery of the Chinese economy. In particular, data on the growth of industrial production, investment and consumption were released in the "green" zone. Some indicators showed positive dynamics, while others exceeded their pre-crisis values. Here, industrial production rose by 35% in February. It should be noted that this figure did not exceed the 7% level even before the pandemic. At the same time, the volume of retail sales also surged by 33%, reflecting the high consumer activity of the Chinese. The volume of investments in fixed assets also increased significantly by 35% at once, although this indicator was in the negative area from February to September last year. It is worth noting that China is still Australia's largest trading partner, even in the face of the restrictions imposed and the tightening of the tariff policy. In this case, the growth of China's macroeconomic indicators provides indirect support to the AUD. Technically, the situation is as follows. The AUD/USD pair is located between the middle and lower lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, but above the Kumo cloud and between the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of the Ichimoku indicator. The nearest support level is 0.7720 (Tenkan-sen line on D1). Last week, the Australian dollar has declined three times to this target, but it returned back to the middle area of the 0.77 mark each time. The trend indicators do not show strong signals, so it is currently best to take a wait-and-see position. If the level of 0.7810 is broken, longs can be considered. In this case, the Ichimoku indicator will form a bullish signal "Parade of Lines". Nevertheless, it is possible to enter sales if the price declines below the support level of 0.7720. If this happens, the pair can develop a downward impulse to the one and a half month low of 0.7645. Forex forecast 03/16/2021 on AUD/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, DAX and Dow Jones from Sebastian Seliga 2021-03-16 Let's take a look at technical picture of AUD/USD, USD/JPY, SP500, DAX and Dow Jones on a daily time frame chart.
Author's today's articles: Grigory Sokolov  Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Maxim Magdalinin  In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Mihail Makarov  - Sebastian Seliga  Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis. Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Sergey Belyaev  Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Alexandr Davidov  No data Irina Manzenko  Irina Manzenko
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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