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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription Gold resists Powell's decision 2021-02-24 Gold lost some of its positions after Fed's Chairman, Jerome Powell, finished his speech. Experts are worried that this metal will further decline, which has significantly weakened following its recent growth. On the evening of February 23, yellow metal's futures with delivery in April 2021 sharply fell. The reason lies in investors' fears about the future of monetary policy after the speech of the Fed's head, Powell. During a meeting in the US Congress, he emphasized that the US economy is showing signs of recovery, but the regulator will maintain the previous soft monetary policy. It is believed that the current situation will remain for a long time, until full employment in the US labor market is restored and the inflation target of 2% is reached. April gold futures currently declined by 0.1%, that is, to $ 1805.90 per ounce. During the trading session, they surged to $ 1815.20, the highest level recorded on February 16. Now, experts consider the support level of the precious metal to be $ 1759 per ounce, and the resistance level is $ 1815.05 per ounce. Analysts think that gold's price will remain around the level of $ 1,800 per ounce in the near future. It should be recalled that the indicated metal drop below the June low of $ 1,760 last week. But this morning, it is trading at $ 1808 per troy ounce, making an attempt to further rise. On another note, the futures for the USD Index, which shows the ratio of the US currency to a basket of six key currencies, increased by 0.15%, reporting to $ 90.138. It is worth noting that gold historically correlates with the dollar and rises in price when the latter declines. In this case, experts believe that the weakening dollar will be beneficial for the yellow metal. If so, gold may return to the level of $ 1800. During the previous rally, prices of the precious metals reached the highest weekly level, but then the optimism ended. Nevertheless, the interest in gold is currently rising. And although investors are worried that the growth of yields of US Treasury bonds will negatively affect the demand for risky assets, and as a result, gold's quotes, experts still expect the stabilization of the situation. Trading plan for EUR/USD on February 23. Slight increase in COVID-19 incidents. Euro to trade downwards soon. 2021-02-24 A slight increase was observed in terms of overall incident. New COVID-19 cases rose by about 20%. In the US, small growth was also seen, around 20%. Perhaps, this is just an accidental surge, but it could also be the beginning of a new wave. Aside from that, the pace of vaccination is still slow. Only US and Britain are showing noticeable success. Even the EU is observing an extremely slow pace of vaccination. EUR/USD The Federal Reserve promised the markets that monetary policy will remain soft for a very long time. It was enough to support the stock market, but insufficient for the euro. Meanwhile, the pound has reached new highs, although now it seems ready for a correction. As for the franc, it already started to decline. Going back to the euro, it may start trading downwards today. Therefore, it is best to open long positions from 1.2125, with stop loss at 1.2089. As for short positions, open them from 1.2085. The US Fed will make a speech again later in the afternoon. EUR/USD: plan for the European session on February 24. COT reports. Euro stayed on the channel ignoring Powell's speech. Bulls need to defend 1.2135 2021-02-24 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that we approached the 1.2133 level several times in the afternoon, but we could not wait for a false breakout to form there. Due to low volatility, there were no signals to enter the market yesterday. Even the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not make any changes in the market, since, in fact, the head of the Fed repeated everything that he said during the last meeting of the committee. As I noted above, from a technical point of view, not much has changed. The revised levels have not been tested, and the whole strategy for the previous day remains relevant until now. Important fundamental statistics on the eurozone will not be released in the morning, so it is possible that the pair will still remain in a horizontal channel, and buyers will focus on protecting support at 1.2135. Forming a false breakout in that area creates a good entry point for opening long positions in hopes to continue the upward trend. If bulls are not active at this level, I recommend postponing long positions until a low like 1.2093 has been tested, from where you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction by 20-25 points within the day. An equally important task for the bulls is to return to the monthly high in the area of 1.2178. Testing this level from top to bottom can create an excellent signal for opening long positions in euros for the purpose of rising towards the high of 1.2220, where I recommend taking profits. Another challenge is to update resistance at 1.2260. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: The bears approached the 1.2133 level several times yesterday, but failed to fall even further than this range. This morning, I recommend opening short positions against the upward trend in case a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.2178. Returning to the area below the 1.2135 level and being able to test it from the bottom up can create a convenient point for entering the market using short positions, in hopes to further pull down EUR/USD. Surpassing 1.2135 will quickly bring EUR/USD to the support area of 1.2093, where I recommend taking profit. The pair's succeeding direction depends on this level, so you need to be very careful in that area. A breakout of this range will revert the upward trend. If the euro is in demand in the afternoon, and the bears are not active in the resistance area of 1.2178, then it is best to hold back from opening short positions until the test of a new high of 1.2220, from where you can sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound in order to pull it down by 20-25 points within the day. The next major resistance is seen around 1.2260. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 16 revealed that there were no significant changes in the positions of large players, which once again indicates the temporary equilibrium of the pair before a new wave of growth this spring. The major decline from the previous week was won back, and this confirms the theory that the demand for the US dollar continues to decrease among investors. Therefore, a more correct approach to the market is to buy the euro for the medium term. A good factor for the euro would be the moment when European countries begin to actively roll back quarantine and isolation measures, and the services sector will start working in full force again, which will lead to an improved economic outlook and also strengthen the EUR/USD pair. The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions rose from 220,943 to 222,895, while short non-commercial positions rose from 80,721 to 82,899. As a result, the total non-commercial net position slightly narrowed after rising to 140,006 from 140,222. The weekly closing price was 1.2132 against 1.2052 a week earlier, which indicates the presence of buyers in the market. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands The volatility of the indicator is very low, which does not provide signals for entering the market. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Indicator analysis. Daily review of the EUR/USD currency pair for February 24, 2021 2021-02-24 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue its upward movement from the level of 1.2148 (closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the historical resistance level of 1.2234 (blue dotted line). After reaching this level, further work upward is possible with the target of 1.2348, the upper fractal (daily candle from 06.01.2021). Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up; Fibonacci levels - up; Volumes - up; Candlestick analysis - up; Trend analysis - up; Bollinger lines - up; Weekly chart - up. General conclusion: Today, the price may continue to move upwards in order to reach the historical resistance level 1.2234 (blue dotted line). Upon reaching this level, further work upward is possible with the target of 1.2348, the upper fractal (daily candle from 06.01.2021). Unlikely scenario: when the price moves up and reaches the resistance level 1.2172 (blue bold line), further work downward is possible, with the target of 1.2063, the 38.2% retracement level (red dotted line). GBP/USD: plan for the European session on February 24. COT reports. Pound tested resistance at 1.4241 and intends to continue rising 2021-02-24 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: Only one signal to enter the market appeared yesterday afternoon. Let's take a look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. Forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.4055 led to forming a signal for opening long positions, afterwards the pound quickly returned to resistance at 1.4105, where I recommended taking profits. The movement was around 50 points. It did not settle above this range, but the pound continues to rise in today's Asian session. Good data on the UK labor market and the prospect of lifting quarantine measures and lifting the lockdown has fuelled Asian investors to make large purchases on the pound. And although today, we expect to hear parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary policy report and a speech from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, traders continue to believe in the pound's strength amid a faster recovery in the British economy this spring. The optimal scenario for opening long positions in sustaining the bull market would be forming a false breakout in the support area of 1.4119, just below which are moving averages that play on the side of buyers. In this case, one can count on a new wave of growth for the pound and its return to the 1.4186 area, the pair's succeeding growth depends whether the price can surpass it or not. A breakout and being able to test this level from top to bottom will lead to forming a new signal to open long positions in order to update 1.4241, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be a high at 1.4324. In case buyers are not active around 1.4119, and the growth should be quite sharp from this level, then I recommend holding back from long positions until a low like 1.4055 has been tested, from which you can buy the pound immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day... The next level to buy is seen in the area of 1.3983, being able to test it will mean a reversal of the upward trend. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The initial task of the bears is to regain control of support at 1.4119, which they missed in today's Asian session. However, it is clear that this will not be so easy, given what kind of bull market we are currently seeing. Only a consolidation below this level and a test of it on the reverse side can create a signal to open short positions in order to pull down the pair to the 1.4055 area, where I recommend taking profits. The succeeding target will be the 1.3983 level. In case GBP/USD grows in the first half of the day, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for a false breakout in the 1.4186 area. I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound but only from a high of 1.4241, counting on a downward correction of 30-35 points within the day. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 16 revealed a reduction in both long and short commercial positions. Despite this, the bulls break through to new highs each time, taking advantage of the good news on vaccinations in the UK and good fundamentals, indicating economic growth even during the lockdown. The news that the UK will resort to easing quarantine measures in March will further fuel investors' interest in the pound. Long non-commercial positions fell from 60,513 to 60,269. At the same time, short non-commercial positions fell from 39,395 to 38,102, which kept the market bullish. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 22,167 from 21,118 a week earlier. The weekly closing price was 1.3914 against 1.3745. Any downward corrections with an immediate buy-back of the pound once again proves the presence of large players in the market. Constant updates of local highs and consolidation on them will contribute to the bullish trend that we have been observing since the beginning of February this year. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the pound's succeeding growth in the short term. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the channel at 1.4170 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In the event of a decline, support will be provided by the lower border of the indicator in the 1.4055 area. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. GBP/USD. February 24. COT report. The British pound increased by 170 points for no particular reason 2021-02-24 GBP/USD – 1H. According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.4190, a rebound from it, and now traders can count on a slight drop in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.4063). As already mentioned in the headline, in the last few days, several news reports have come from the UK, which could increase the interest of traders in the British. Although, where is even higher? This question concerns both the rate of the British dollar itself and the interest in it from traders. Let me remind you that the Briton has been growing for several months, and it was not always possible to explain its growth. The other day, Boris Johnson announced that the country will begin to gradually come out of quarantine from March. A detailed plan was released, and some traders were happy about it. Also, the UK is in third place in the world in terms of the rate of vaccination of the population, which is also positive news. However, do not forget that in the United States, the vaccination process is in full swing. President Joe Biden promised that during his first hundred days in office, he would provide the country with 100 million doses of the vaccine. According to the latest data, 1.3 million people are vaccinated every day in America. Thus, it is unlikely that positive epidemiological news can be regarded as the reason for the growth of the Briton. Recent economic reports have also been upbeat. Yesterday, the unemployment rate showed a negative trend, increasing to 5.1%. According to economists, unemployment will continue to rise in the UK in the coming months. Less significant reports on wages and applications for unemployment benefits were slightly better than traders' expectations. GBP/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair closed above the level of 1.4126. Thus, the growth process can be continued towards the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.4287). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow us to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight fall in the direction of the levels of 1.4126 and 1.3979. Let me remind you that the ascending trend line also remains unchanged, which continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". GBP/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the pair's quotes closed above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084), which increases the chances of continuing growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812). GBP/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased. Overview of fundamentals: On Tuesday, the US and UK calendars contained interesting events, however, the peak of the growth of the British dollar fell on Wednesday night, when all the events of Tuesday were already far behind. In any case, none of the reports and events could cause the pound to rise by another 170 points. News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom: UK - Bank of England MPC member Andy Haldane will deliver a speech (12:00 GMT). UK - parliamentary hearings on the Bank of England's monetary policy report (14:30 GMT). UK - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey will deliver a speech (14:30 GMT). US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT). On February 24, several important performances will take place in the UK and the US, in particular Andrew Bailey and Jerome Powell. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: The latest COT report from February 16 on the British pound was extremely boring, as was the report on the euro. During the reporting week, the "Non-commercial" category of traders opened 369 long contracts and closed 3,308 short contracts. Thus, the mood of speculators has become more "bullish", which further increases the chances of the British dollar continuing to grow. In general, during the reporting week, almost an equal number of long and short contracts were opened by all players. Nevertheless, despite the small changes, the pound continues a strong and long process of growth. Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders: It was recommended to buy the British dollar in case of closing above the level of 1.3979 on the 4-hour chart with a target of 1.4126. This goal was worked out with a margin. I recommend new purchases when closing above the level of 1.4190 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.4287. I recommend selling the pound sterling when the quotes are fixed under the upward trend corridor on the hourly chart with the targets of 1.3895 and 1.3820. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. February 24. COT report. Jerome Powell: economic outlook remains uncertain 2021-02-24 EUR/USD – 1H. On February 23, the EUR/USD pair continued to trade inside the upward trend corridor, which keeps the current mood of traders "bullish". However, closing the pair under this corridor will work in favor of the US currency, and some fall in the direction of the corrective level of 38.2% (1.2104). The rebound from the lower limit of the corridor will work in favor of the European currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 61.8% (1.2197). The most important event of the last day was the speech of Jerome Powell in the US Congress before the Committee on Financial Services. The Fed chairman said that price pressure remains negligible, inflation is weak, and the economic outlook is uncertain. Powell noted that the current state of the economy is too far from the target levels of employment and inflation and may take a sufficient amount of time to reach them. Powell also recalled that at the end of last year, the Fed changed its approach to inflation. Inflation will now be allowed to stay above the 2% level for an extended period without tightening monetary policy. This is a response to periods of low inflation. The Fed is still waiting for the value of the consumer price index at the level of at least 2%. Powell also noted that progress in vaccination can accelerate economic recovery and improve the economic outlook. In general, his speech to the financial services committee was quite predictable. This is not the first time we have heard many theses. Thus, in general, Powell did not surprise traders with anything. Also, traders were not surprised by the report on inflation in the European Union, which was released yesterday morning with an indicator of 0.9% y/y. Traders did not expect this indicator to change in any way in January. EUR/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes continue the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2204 after rebounding from the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027) and the formation of a bullish divergence at the CCI indicator. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the US currency and a slight drop in the direction of 1.2027. Closing the pair's rate above the level of 1.2204 will work in favor of continuing growth in the direction of the next Fibo level of 200.0% (1.2353). EUR/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed the second breakdown of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, and also false. Therefore, at the moment, the pair still retains the chances of continuing the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Closing under the corridor will allow you to count on a long drop in quotes. EUR/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On February 23, there were events in the European Union and the United States that could have affected the pair's movement but did not. The activity of traders throughout the day was low. News calendar for the United States and the European Union: US - Federal Reserve Board of Governors Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech (15:00 GMT). On February 24, the calendar of economic events in the European Union is empty, and in America, Powell's second speech to the US Congress will be held. It is unlikely that it will differ from the first one, so the information background may be weak today. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: Last Friday, the next COT report was released, and for the second week in a row, it turns out to be very calm. If a week earlier the "Non-commercial" category of traders increased long contracts and got rid of short contracts, then in the last week they increased both long and short contracts, but in even smaller quantities. A total of 2,537 long contracts and 1,284 short contracts were opened. Thus, the mood of the major players became only slightly more "bullish". On the other hand, it has not become more "bearish", which means that the prospects for the European currency remain wonderful. In general, during the last reporting week, more short contracts were opened, however, we are more interested in the data on the speculator group. Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders: Sales of the pair are recommended when closing quotes under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2104 and 1.2046. It was recommended to buy the pair in the case of closing quotes above the trend line on the hourly chart with targets of 1.2151 and 1.2197. The first one has already been reached, and we are waiting for the second one until the closure under the corridor is completed. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Indicator Analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair 02/24/21 2021-02-24 Yesterday, the pair moved up, failed to reach the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator of 1.4151 (black dotted line) and closed the daily candle at 1.4110. Today, the price will try to continue moving up according to the economic calendar news that is expected at 15.00 and 15.30 UTC (USD). Trend Analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.4110 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator of 1.4297 (the black dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to move down with the target of 1.4018-8 average EMA (blue thin line). Figure 1 (daily chart). Comprehensive Analysis: - Indicator Analysis - up - Fibonacci Levels - up - Volumes - up - Candlestick Analysis - up - Trend Analysis - up - Bollinger Bands - up - Weekly Schedule - up General Conclusion: Today, the price will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.4110 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the upper limit of the Bollinger line indicator of 1.4297 (the black dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to move down with the target of 1.4018-8 average EMA (blue thin line). Unlikely scenario: the price will try to continue moving up from the level of 1.4110 (the closing of yesterday's daily candle) in order to reach the historical resistance level of 1.4285 (the blue dotted line). In the case of testing this level, it is possible to go down with the target of 1.4076 - 5 is the average EMA (red thin line). Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for February 24, 2021 2021-02-24 Technical Market Outlook: After the EUR/USD pair had made a new local high at the level of 1.2177 the bullish momentum decreased and the price has started to consolidate in a narrow range between the levels of 1.2135 - 1.2166. The last attempt to break through this zone was a failure, so bulls need to break through if they want to continue the up trend towards 1.2284, which is the next target for them. The intraday support is seen at the level of 1.2163, 1.2154 and 1.2135 and the next technical support is seen at 1.2088. Any violation of the old 61% Fibonacci retracement located at the level of 1.2035 will invalidate the bullish scenario. The weekly time frame trend is still up and intact. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2336 WR2 - 1.2251 WR1 - 1.2185 Weekly Pivot - 1.2101 WS1 - 1.2042 WS2 - 1.1960 WS3 - 1.1894 Trading Recommendations: Any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken, because since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. Any violation of the level of 1.2175 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for February 24, 2021 2021-02-24 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has broken out of the channel and hit the level of 1.4223, which is now a new swing high. Nevertheless, there are some signs of incoming correction due to the extremely overbought market conditions, so please keep an eye on the intraday technical support seen at 1.4098 and the local technical support located at the level of 1.4143. Any violation of this level will open the road towards the next technical support seen at the level of 1.3982. The higher time frame trend is still up and the potential correction is only an internal corrective cycle inside of the up trend. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.4313 WR2 - 1.4176 WR1 - 1.4112 Weekly Pivot - 1.3970 WS1 - 1.3906 WS2 - 1.3764 WS3 - 1.3698 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend. The recent top was made at the level of 1.4050 and this was the higher close in over two years. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370. Technical analysis of AUD/USD for February 24, 2021 2021-02-24 Overview : The AUD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 0.7800. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.7800 (the level of 0.7800 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 0.7919. Today, the first support level is seen at 0.7800 followed by 0.7775, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 0.7998. According to the previous events, the AUD/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 0.7800 and 0.8041; for that we expect a range of 241 pips (0.8041 - 0.7800). On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 0.7946, which coincides with a ratio of 100% Fibonacci retracement , highs. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100). Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 0.7946, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 0.7998 to test it. Consequently, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.7800 with the first target at 0.7998. Then, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to 0.8020 mark and further to 0.8041 levels. The level of 1.0128 will act as strong resistance, and the double top is already set at 0.7946. On the other hand, the daily strong support is seen at 0.7711. If the AUDUSD pair is able to break out the level of 0.7711, the market will decline further to 0.6575 (daily support 3). It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the third support of 0.6575. EUR/USD: Federal Reserve promises to keep monetary policy ultra-soft. US House of Representatives to vote on the proposed $ 1.9 trillion bailout bill this Friday. 2021-02-24 Recent statements from the Federal Reserve did not affect the forex market, but provided sufficient support to the US stock market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking to members of the Senate Banking Committee, said the central bank will continue to support an ultra-soft monetary policy. To put it more precisely, the Fed will keep interest rates near zero and leave the current bond purchase program at the same level. All of these measures will continue until "substantial progress" is achieved. For example, if the US already reaches the target employment and inflation levels. Regarding government bonds, concerns on the outlook for inflation have helped boost Treasury yields. As a result, 10 and 30-year bond yields hit their highest levels for the first time since the early days of the coronavirus pandemic. Of course, this is not good news for the Fed. A similar situation is observed in the Euro area. During her last speech, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said she is closely monitoring the bond market, and noted that she could take measures to prevent a rise in yields. Lately, these are growing because investors are expecting a huge economic recovery amid the release of COVID-19 vaccines. They expect consumer spending to surge, which will accordingly lead to an increase in inflation and interest rates. However, the rise in profitability hurts the pace of economic recovery since it increases the cost of financing for the debt burden of the public and private sectors. Powell also said the recent rise in consumer prices is temporary and is more related to the recovery of prices in individual sectors of the economy. Meanwhile, the areas most affected by the pandemic are not showing such growth, which will limit inflationary pressures, at least until economic activity is fully restored. He also mentioned that progress in vaccination should help accelerate the return to normal activities, but in the meantime, it is necessary to continue following the advice of health experts and observe social distancing measures. In another note, the US House of Representatives will vote on the proposed $ 1.9 trillion bailout bill on Friday, but the main snag is that Democrats may not be able to push an increase in minimum wage. To date, there is disagreement among Democrats, not to mention Republicans, who are generally not happy with the new aid program. In terms of macro statistics, the latest data indicated that US consumer confidence has risen to much better level than expected. According to the Conference Board, the index rose to 91.3 points this February, up from the projected 90.0 points. The growth was mainly due to a strong current situation index, which jumped to 92.0 points this month, from 85.5 points earlier. These figures suggest that economic growth will continue and not slow, unlike the previous months. Unfortunately though, the index of expectations has decreased, dropping to 90.8 points in February, from 91.2 points in the previous month. The decline is most probably due to concerns associated with the delay in the adoption of new economic stimulus. But nevertheless, in general, consumers are cautiously optimistic on the outlook for the coming months. As for EUR/USD, the technical picture is still the same. Although the euro has dropped a bit, the market remains in favor of the bulls. In fact, to continue the bull market, traders just need to push the quote above 1.2180, as such will lead to a new upward wave towards 1.2220 and 1.2260. There is also no need to panic if the euro falls slightly, since 1.2135 will act as a strong support. And even if this area is broken down, long positions will still increase, especially around 1.2090. Recent COT report also showed that long non-commercial positions have risen from 220,943 to 222,895, while short non-commercial positions increased from 80,721 to 82,899. All in all, the total non-commercial net position fell slightly from 140,222 to 140,006. The weekly closing price was also at 1.2132, which indicates the presence of buyers in the market. Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 24, 2021 2021-02-24 GBP/JPY has been accelerating higher without time for even the smallest correction, but we are getting close to the 161.8% extension target for wave iii/ at 150.79. This should ideally cap the upside for a correction in wave iv/ towards 146.64 and ideally closer to 144.04 before turning higher in wave v/ towards 154.99. Longer-term we continue to look for more upside above the 2018 peak at 156.66. R3: 150.79 R2: 150.45 R1: 150.12 Pivot: 149.70 S1: 149.28 S2: 148.60 S3: 148.29 Trading recommendation: We are long 50% GBP from 142.27 and we will raise our stop higher to 147.75 AUD/USD. Australian dollar heads toward a key price range 2021-02-24 The Australian dollar, paired with the US currency, continues to trade at multi-month price highs. It settled within the 79th mark this week, the last time the currency was at such heights was in February 2018. The reason for this movement is that the dollar pairs are taking advantage of the general weakness of the US dollar, which came under additional pressure yesterday from Fed's head, Jerome Powell. However, the price of the AUD/USD pair is not only rising due to the devaluation of the US currency, it is also due to the confidence of the Australian dollar in many cross-pairs, which speaks of its demand. In terms of the mid-term and long-term prospects of the AUD, we should highlight two main points. First, it is possible that the AUD/USD pair will not only consolidate in the area of 0.79, but also test the 0.80 level. However, the second point contradicts the first one: AUD/USD buyers will have a hard time to break through the level of 0.8000 mark. It is likely that they will attack this target for several weeks, similarly to what happened to the 0.7000 level. Here, it is fair to note that the AUD/USD pair has its own specifics: as a rule, it is traded within a wide price range, whose borders are quite strong support and resistance levels. After choosing a price target, the Australian dollar attacks it and moves to a strong barrier. For example, the target level of 0.7000 was assaulted for several weeks last summer, when AUD/USD buyers tried to break it upwards. As this year began, the "Aussie" hovered within the range of 0.76-0.77 range for a few weeks. It continued the upward trend this month, moving in the price range of 0.78-0.80. Judging by the dynamics of the upward movement, it will be simple for AUD/USD buyers to reach the borders of the 80th mark in the medium term, but it is not clear whether it will further rise. Last January-February 2018, the Australian dollar reached three-year highs, reaching the area of the level 0.81. However, buyers could not maintain their positions at such heights, so the Aussie began to slowly decline after reaching a peak of 0.8137. In this case, almost every candle on the monthly chart was bearish. As a result, the Australian dollar plunged to the support level of 0.7000, and traded in the range of 0.68-0.71 for a year and a half, until last year. If we consider a wider time range, it can be concluded that the AUD/USD pair has hardly stayed above the level of 0.80 for more than a few weeks over the past seven years. The pair was in the range of 0.95-1.10 between 2009-2014, that is, after the end of the global economic crisis and before the strong dollar era, when the US regulator began to actively raise interest rates. This background suggests that the Australian dollar is approaching an extreme, from which a large-scale correction is possible. There are less than a hundred points left to reach the key 80th level, while the pair has overcome almost 400 points in the last three weeks alone. Another point is that as soon as the AUD/USD pair enters the area of the 80th mark, the RBA may discuss it. Earlier, Central Bank's members regularly criticized the overvalued rate of the national currency. It is likely that the RBA Governor, Philip Lowe, will focus on this point at the next meeting, which will take place next Tuesday, March 2. All this suggests that long positions can be opened with the main target of 0.8000 from the current position, or from the downward recessions. The Australian currency is currently supported by many fundamental factors. The latest data on the labor market and inflation came out in the "green" zone, which confirmed the economic recovery of the country. Moreover, the RBA takes an optimistic wait-and-see position, and the commodity market is rising (especially with regard to the dynamics of prices for copper and iron ore). In addition, Australia's epidemiological situation is doing well. According to the latest data, there are less than 2,000 active cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Moreover, a vaccination campaign began in the country on Monday: the authorities ordered more than 150 million doses of vaccines, hoping to vaccinate most of the population by the beginning of autumn. In turn, the US dollar is under pressure from Powell's "dovish" rhetoric, amid general risk appetite and low demand for protective instruments. The Fed Chairman clearly stated that the Fed will continue to pursue an accommodative policy. At the same time, inflation and employment remain well below the Fed's targets, while other macroeconomic indicators unevenly rise. In general, Powell repeated the same comments, although his rhetoric was cautious and pessimistic this time. This fact added more pressure on the US currency, which was reflected in the major dollar pairs. The current decline of the AUD/USD pair is due to the contradictory statistics that were published in Australia during the Asian session on Wednesday. So, in view of quite decent growth in the labor force index (the indicator came out in the "green zone" both on an annual and monthly basis), the indicator of completed construction projects was disappointing – it remained in the negative zone, slowing to -0.9% instead of rising to 1.1%. The downward pullback can be used as an excuse to open long positions, since the upward trend stays significant. The first upward target is set at 0.7950 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). The main target is 0.8000. Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 24, 2021 2021-02-24 Overview : The GBP/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 1.4083. The support is found at the level of 1.4083, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 1.4083, while immediate resistance is seen at 1.4034. Accordingly, the GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 1.4150. So, buy above the level of 1.4150 with the first target at 1.4240 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and move further to 1.4300. Also, the level of 1.4369 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top at the same time frame. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the GBP/USD pair to climb from 1.4150 to 1.4369 in coming days. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.4034, a further decline to 1.3829 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market. Conclusion : We expect the GBP/USD pair to continue moving in the bullish trend from the support level of 1.4150 towards the target level of 1.4240. If the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.4240, the market will indicate the bullish opportunity above the level of 1.4240 in order to reach the second target at 1.4300, then 1.4369. However, the price spot of 1.4369 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend will probably be rebounded again from the double top as long as the level of 1.4240 is not breached. Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 24, 2021 2021-02-24 EUR/JPY is ready for the next run higher towards the 129.06 target. Once this target is hit, we should see a minor correction/consolidation before the next push higher towards 132.87 and 137.50 as the next more serious upside targets. Long-term, we continue to look for much higher levels with key-support seen at 127.06 R3: 129.06 R2: 128.65 R1: 128.36 Pivot: 128.26 S1: 128.10 S2: 127.66 S3: 127.06 Trading recommendation: We are long EUR from 125.85 with our stop placed at 126.85. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: l Kolesnikova text Mihail Makarov - Maxim Magdalinin In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Sergey Belyaev Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Grigory Sokolov Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu Mourad El Keddani Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development). Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch. Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Pavel Vlasov No data Torben Melsted Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Irina Manzenko Irina Manzenko Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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