Wednesday, February 24, 2021

📈 Daily analysts mail subscription

logo
The best broker in Asia

www.instaforex.com

Daily analysts mail subscription

Trading recommendations for starters of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 24, 2021
2021-02-24

The US dollar is still having a hard time due to speculators who open trade deals in favor of the euro and the pound.

On Tuesday, the UK's labor market was published. The unemployment rate continues to rise to 5.1%, while employment declined by 114 thousand. At the same time, the wages are growing from 3.6% to 4.1% due to large-scale layoffs of low-paid employees.

The situation in Britain is worse than ever, however, speculators do not pay attention to the economic problems inside the country. The media forced them into a different reality, in which everything is fine and quarantine measures will be lifted soon.

Europe, in turn, published its inflation data, which confirmed its rapid growth to 0.9% after staying at the deflation level for too long.

The market did not react when inflation data in the EU was released, since the quote already took into account the data.

On the other hand, the United States published the composite housing price index (S&P/CS Composite-20) for December, where there was growth from 9.2% to 10.1%. However, the market ignored the positive statistics.

What happened on the trading chart?

The EUR/USD pair continues to try to reverse the correction course from the peak of the medium-term trend of 1.2349 - - - > 1.1950, where the important indicator of 1.2190 was reached. The breakdown of this level may lead to a change in trading interests and a recovery relative to the correction course.

The GBP/USD pair continues to update the local high of the mid-term trend, where the breakdown of the important resistance area of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050 has occurred. Such a sharp growth can only be justified by the speculative behavior of market participants, since all other signals indicate the quote's early reversal.

analytics60360416a962d.jpg

Trading recommendations on EUR/USD and GBP/USD for February 24, 2021

Today, the United States will release its new home sales data, where it was predicted to rise from 1.6% to 2.1%. The expected data is positive, but speculators are unlikely to be interested in them.

Analyzing the trading chart of EUR/USD, it can be seen that the quote slightly slowed down its upward trend, forming a stagnation within the coordinate 1.2150. To confirm the signal of the restoration of the upward course relative to the corrective one, market participants need to hold above 1.2200 in the H4 time frame, with the prospect of moving to 1.2095-1.2050.

analytics603604369e95c.jpg

As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, there was a speculative price surge during the Asian session, which led to a rise of 100 points. Such strong price fluctuations in a low-liquid period of time confirmed speculators' theory of price manipulation once again.

In this situation, we can assume that there will be an impending correction due to the overheated long positions and overbought pound. However, some speculators are persistent.

To simply put it, speculators who ignore the economic problems from the UK can continue to reset the high in the direction of the peak of 2018 – the area of 1.4350.

In this case, it is necessary to closely monitor the high of 1.4224. Speculators will continue its manipulations until this level is broken through.

At the same time, we are currently in a situation where a massive correction can happen at any time. Therefore, the quotes should stay below the level of 1.4140, which will open the way towards the 1.4000-1.4050 range.

analytics6036044a16545.jpg

US bonds halt gold rally
2021-02-24

analytics6035fcf7ce770.jpg

Rising bond yields will continue to block gold rally, said Tom Winmill, fund manager in Midas Fund. He warned investors that they are losing sight of the looming threat of currency depreciation and rising inflation, while paying particular attention to the bond market.

According to Winmill, bond yields have not only reached their highest level in almost a year, but have also grown significantly from 0.5% in August.

Fortunately, earlier this week, the gold market was able to get rid of the influence of the bond market, respectively trading above $ 1,800 per ounce.

analytics6035fda052aa7.jpg

But of course, bond yields may continue to rise in the near future. However, with all the debt the US government has accumulated in an effort to prop up the economy, a sell-off will not be sustainable. At the moment, US debt accounts for 133% of US GDP.

"Growing public debt is an impending problem to deal with," Winmill said. "If bond yields continue to rise, it will be difficult for the government to meet its obligations," he added.

Winmill pointed out that if yields continue to widen, the Federal Reserve, at some point, will be forced to buy Treasury bonds on its own. When that happens, investors will turn their attention back to inflation, which the central bank wants to exceed 2%.

But on Tuesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from commenting on the rising bond yields. Nevertheless, he said that overall yields are increasing because investors are anticipating a more "sustainable and complete economic recovery."

Powell also noted that the Federal Reserve is still far from achieving its goals and will continue to pursue adaptive monetary policy.

Winmill said that while the US Fed is relatively calm about the threat of inflation, official government figures do not reflect what is happening in the economy as a whole. Growing commodity prices, increasing house prices and the market value of securities are all signs of rising inflation. He added that consumers can see the impact of inflation through their grocery bills.

Hence, consumers will feel the tightening of inflation as energy prices continue to rise.

To add to that, inflation is penetrating the economy more and more, which creates a negative cycle.

"If the Fed starts to tighten the yield, it will be way behind the curve, which will be good for gold," Winmill said.

Forex forecast 02/24/2021 on NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY from Sebastian Seliga
2021-02-24

Let's take a look at the technical picture of NZD/USD, AUD/USD, EUR/GBP and GBP/JPY on the daily time frame chart.

Technical analysis recommendations for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 24
2021-02-24

EUR/USD

analytics6036149eba41f.jpg

The pair increased in the influence and attraction zone of the resistances of the weekly short-term trend (1.2150) and the all-time level of (1.2170) again. Once these levels are broken and the pair exits from the daily Ichimoku cloud (1.2200), the bulls will slightly strengthen their positions. However, the pair will still stay in the downward correction zone on the weekly and monthly time frames, so all bullish prospects will remain relative to the breakdown of the high extremum (1.2349). Today, the daily gold cross and the weekly Fibo Kijun (1.2102 1.2070-64) formed the nearest support.

analytics60363680d38e9.jpg

There is a current struggle in the central pivot level of the day (1.2155) on the H1 chart. If the bulls remain above this level, then we can note the following pivot points set at 1.2174 - 1.2200 - 1.2219 (classic pivot levels). Alternatively, if the euro consolidates below it, then the next pivot point to continue the downward correction can be seen at 1.2113 (weekly long-term trend). The final support for the classic pivot levels is 1.2084.

GBP/USD

analytics603614bd77abe.jpg

The bulls continue their growth after slightly declining at the first target (1.3904) of the weekly target. Today, they managed to test the resistance level of 1.4181, after fully breaking through the weekly target. Now, they are making an attempt to further rise. The pivot point will be the upper border of the monthly cloud (1.4314). The current nearest support is located quite deep, that is, at 1.4007 (daily short-term trend), which is unlikely to be significant.

analytics60363683614e0.jpg

Presently, the movement is inclined on the final upward pivot level 1.4197 (R3). There is a corrective deceleration. In this case, the levels in the upper time frames (i.e 1.4314 level), are the only levels allowed to be the bulls' pivot points. In turn, the key support levels in the smaller time frames are now located at 1.4093 (central pivot level) and 1.4004 (weekly long-term trend).

The following methods are used in the technical analysis of the situation:

Higher time frames – Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52) + Fibo Kijun levels

H1 – Pivot Points (classic) + Moving Average 120 (weekly long-term trend)

USD/JPY analysis for February 24 2021 - Strong upside impuslive movement with potential for test of 106.22
2021-02-24
US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 19 February -11.4% vs -5.1% prior

Prior -5.1%

  • Market index 790.6 vs 892.6 prior
  • Purchase index 264.9 vs 299.5 prior
  • Refinancing index 3,848.1 vs 4,337.0 prior
  • 30-year mortgage rate 3.08% vs 2.98%

It looks like the housing market is not taking too kindly to the higher rates as both purchases and refinancing activity took a heavy dip in the past week. After the more robust period following the initial impact of the virus crisis, this may be tricky times for the housing market and is something that the Fed will have to watch closely if rates continue t

Further Development

analytics60364b2100dcf.jpg

Analyzing the current trading chart of USD/JPY , I found that the buyers took control from the sellers and completed that downside correction ABC.

Stochastic is going very aggressive to the upside, which is another sign of the strength.

Key support is set at the price of 105,07.

Analysis of Gold for February 24,.2021 - Breakout of the rising channel and potential for test of $7.465
2021-02-24
BOJ's Kuroda: ETF purchases not significantly crippling market functions

Further remarks by Kuroda

  • Does not think ETF purchases cause serious corporate governance problems
  • Aware of the view that ETF purchases may lead to decline in stock market function

He also adds that they are not targeting any specific levels with their ETF purchases but as long as they keep with the buying, it just means current levels are not enough

Further Development

analytics60364c3904bc3.jpg

Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold , I found that the buyers don't have enough power for anything bigger and that sellers might use that condition for their short positions.

My advice is to watch for selling opportunities using the intraday charts....





Author's today's articles:

Vladislav Tukhmenev

Vladislav graduated from Moscow State University of Technologiy and Management. He entered the forex market in early 2008. Vladislav is a professional trader, analyst, and manager. He applies a whole gamut of analysis – technical, graphical, mathematical, fundamental, and candlestick analysis. Moreover, he forecasts the market movements using his own methods based on the chaos theory. Vladimir took part in development of trading systems devoted to fractal analysis. In his free time, Vladimir blogs about exchange markets. Hobbies: active leisure, sporting shooting, cars, design, and marketing. "I do not dream only of becoming the best in my field. I also dream about those who I will take with me along the way up."

Andrey Shevchenko

Andrey Shevchenko

Sebastian Seliga

Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu

Zhizhko Nadezhda

Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn

Petar Jacimovic

Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"


Subscription's options management

Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda

Edit data of subscription settings

Unsubscribe from the mailing list

Sincerely,
Analysts Service

If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the
InstaForex Toll free numbers right now:


InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. InstaForex Group members include regulated companies in Europe, Russia and British Virgin Islands. This letter may contain personal information for access to your InstaForex trading account, so for the purpose of safety it is recommended to delete this data from the history. If you have received this letter by mistake, please contact InstaForex Customer Relations Department.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Private investors pour $50 billion into booming sector… investment opportunity

Unstoppable megatrend driven by hundreds of billions in government spending ...