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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription Analysis and forecast for EUR/USD on February 4, 2021 2021-02-04 Yesterday's trading on the main currency pair of the Forex market was similar to the previous one, that is, uneven and nervous. It is possible that such market sentiment was influenced by the situation with vaccination of Europeans, which is significantly behind the initial calculations. As of last night, about two million people have been vaccinated in the euro area countries. For example, in the UK, where the population is much smaller, this figure already reaches six million. Now, regarding yesterday's statistics and what data market participants expect today. The main macroeconomic reports from the eurozone yesterday were consumer price indices, which indicate the degree of inflationary pressure in the region. I should immediately note that the data on consumer prices came out quite ambiguous. If every month, the indicator was weaker than the previous indicator of 0.3% and amounted to 0.2%, then in annual terms, as well as the base value of the index exceeded the expectations of experts. As for the American statistics, the change in the number of employees from ADP was significantly better than the previous indicator of minus 123 thousand and showed an increase of 174 thousand. The difference, as you know, is very significant. If we take into account that ADP data is often a leading indicator of Nonfarm Payrolls, then on Friday, we can expect very positive reports from the US Department of Employment. However, there is still time until Friday, and today all the attention of investors will be focused on data on retail sales in the euro area, as well as on US reports on initial applications for unemployment benefits and production orders. The release time, as well as forecasts for this and other current data, can be seen in the economic calendar. Daily At yesterday's trading, the euro bears continued to put pressure on the quote, however, having reached the area where the black 89 exponential moving average passes (this is near 1.2000), the pair found strong support and quite predictably began to recover the losses incurred before. As a result, yesterday's candle formed with a long lower shadow (or tail) and a small bearish body, and the closing price on February 3 was 1.2034. Thus, two consecutive daily candles closed below the important support zone of 1.2060-1.2050. If today's candle closes at 1.2050, then the breakdown of this strong price zone, which for a long time kept the pair from moving in the south direction, can be considered broken. On the other hand, Friday's data on the US labor market may turn everything upside down and radically change the technical picture for the main currency pair. However, something suggests that the weakening of the US dollar across a wide range of the market is complete and now the US currency has changed the trend and will strengthen. Conclusions about this can be made only after Friday's closing of daily and weekly trading. Now, at the moment of writing, the bears for EUR/USD are not calming down and continue to put quite aggressive pressure on the quote. The pair has again dropped to 89 EMA and is re-testing this strong moving trend for a breakdown. H1 On the hourly chart, the euro/dollar pair is trading in a descending channel and is trying to fall below the average dotted line of this channel. At the same time, the downside players are trying to rewrite yesterday's lows, shown on 1.2003, and lower the rate below the most important psychological level of 1.2000. I'll assume that they can do it. However, the mark of 1.2000 is precisely psychological, and not a strong technical one. According to long-term observation, the level of 1.2000 very rarely had an impact on the price and turned it in the opposite direction. Bounces or reversals occurred from 1.2060, 1.2050, 1.2030, 1.2011, 1.1980, 1.1960 , 1.1940. You can list it further, however, it is from 1.2000 that the pair very rarely radically changed its price direction. Despite the above-mentioned factors, this does not mean that the level of 1.2000 should be ignored, it is just better to open positions above or below this mark. Trading recommendations for EUR/USD: Given the current ambiguous situation and the upcoming release of tomorrow's labor reports from the United States, I recommend considering positioning in both directions, while giving priority to the pair's sales. So, to open short positions at more favorable prices, you can look closely after the short-term rise of the pair in the price area of 1.2030-1.2055. In turn, those who want to buy EUR/USD can do so from the price zone of 1.2000-1.1975. At the same time, in both cases, it would be nice to enlist the support of the corresponding candle signals on this or four-hour charts. Trading idea for silver 2021-02-04 Silver is now declining very sharply, after rallying at the end of January amid tricks of speculators. In fact, quotes have formed a wave pattern (ABC), in which wave "A" is the bearish initiative observed in the last three days. Taking this into account, short positions may be opened from $ 27.7- $ 28.0, the target of which is a 50% retracement. Limit should be set at $ 29, and then take profit as soon as the quote breaks through $ 26, $ 24 and $ 21.50. Of course, traders still need to carefully assess the situation before placing any position. Trading is very precarious, but profitable as long as the correct strategy is used. The plan above follows Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! Analysis and Forecast of GBP/USD for February 4, 2021 2021-02-04 The pound/dollar currency pair declined on Wednesday, closing the trading at 1.3640. Although the support level 1.3631 once again held out and was only pierced, today, at the time of writing, the pressure on the pound sterling has increased significantly, and now the pair is trading down near 1.3595, with attempts to break through one of the key technical levels 1.3600. This is quite natural since the inability to gain a foothold above another important level 1.3700 gave rise to a reversal in the opposite direction. Another possible reason for such aggressive selling of the pound may be today's decision of the Bank of England on rates, an accompanying statement to this decision, the announcement of the volume of the bond purchase program, and the subsequent press conference of the Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey. Market participants probably expect a soft remark from Bailey and "dovish" signals in the accompanying statement of the Bank of England. As for the main interest rate and the asset purchase program, the rate is projected at the same level of 0.10%, and the volume of bond purchases, according to experts, will remain the same, at £875 billion. At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that Bailey's rhetoric will not be so soft and the price dynamics of the GBP/USD pair will radically change in favor of the growth of the pound sterling. Daily As already noted, at this point, the pair is experiencing serious selling pressure, if it continues, the quotes risk falling to the area of 1.3528, where the daily 50 simple moving average passes. It is quite possible that near 50 MA, the pair will find strong support and at least bounce strongly from this moving average, otherwise if today's trading ends below 50 MA, the players' positions on the downside will significantly strengthen. However, as has been repeatedly assumed, the final impact on the results of weekly trading will have labor statistics from the United States, which will be published tomorrow. To bring back the bullish sentiment on GBP/USD, it is necessary to close today's trading above the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator, which passes at 1.3669. In this case, and the case of weak US labor reports, the pair is once again able to test the strong resistance zone of 1.3700-1.3757 for a breakdown. A true breakout (which implies a consolidation) of 1.3757 will clearly indicate that the sterling is ready to continue its strengthening against the US dollar. H4 The current and rather strong pressure on the pound sterling is particularly seen in the four-hour timeframe. At the end of this article, the pair is testing the orange 200 exponential moving average for a breakdown, and if successful, it risks falling lower to the support area of 1.3518. It is also worth noting that before testing for a breakdown of the 200 EMA, two consecutive candles closed under the support level of 1.3608. If the third candle closes below this mark, then on the pullback to the price zone 1.3600-1.3630, it is worth considering the sale of the sterling. More precisely, it would be worth it, if not for today's events related to the Bank of England. In such a situation, it is difficult to give unambiguous forecasts, anything can happen. The same applies on the following day, upon the publication of the data on the US labor market. Nevertheless, in my opinion, the preference should be given to selling GBP/USD. Recently, the market situation has changed dramatically in favor of strengthening the US dollar, which should be confirmed by tomorrow's positive labor reports from the US. Technical analysis for EUR/USD and GBP/USD on February 4 2021-02-04 EUR / USD The situation in EUR / USD is still the same. Bearish players did renew the low, but there was no active decline. As a result, price remains below 1.2054-64, with resistances at 1.2093, 1.2119 and 1.2136. If the decline resumes, the nearest support and pivot points are 1.1975-38 (weekly medium-term trend + lower border of the daily cloud). In lower time frames, bearish traders are still at an advantage. In fact, at the time of writing, EUR / USD is testing 1.2009 (S1), while further targets are 1.1983 (S2) and 1.1963 (S3). But if the quote pulls back and consolidates above these levels, the trend in the euro may completely change. Nonetheless, key levels are 1.2029 (daily pivot) and 1.2077 (weekly long-term trend), while intermediate resistance can be noted at 1.2055 (R1). GBP / USD GBP / USD continues to decline. Because of this, there is a high chance that the golden cross will be broken, especially since its final levels are 1.3604 (Kijun) and 1.3568. To add to that, overcoming the daily supports will set off a downward correction towards 1.3446, which will accordingly strengthen the Ichimoku cloud. Pound bears are at an advantage because GBP / USD continues to trade below 1.3647 (daily pivot) and 1.3679 (weekly long-term trend). These levels allowed the pair to test 1.3583 (classic pivot), as well as 1.3548 (S3). Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120) EUR/USD analysis for February 04, 2021 - Breakout of strong HSS pattern and potential for test of 1.1900 2021-02-04 BOE leaves bank rate unchanged at 0.10% Prior 0.10% Bank rate votes 0-0-9 vs 0-0-9 expected Gilts purchases £875 billion Corporate bond purchases £20 billion Total asset program £895 billion (unchanged) Existing stance of monetary policy remains appropriate Financial markets have remained resilient GDP is projected to recover rapidly towards pre-virus levels over 2021 Vaccine rollout is assumed to lead to an easing of virus-related restrictions Outlook for the economy remains unusually uncertain CPI inflation is expected to rise quite sharply towards the 2% target in the spring Does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence that significant progress is being made in eliminating spare capacity and achieving the 2% inflation target sustainably Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR, I found that the sellers are very consistent and in full control, which is sign that selling power is much stronger then demand power. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2060 Support levels: 1,1930 and 1,1810. Analysis of Gold for February 04,.2021 - Potential test of $1.803, sellers are in control.... 2021-02-04 Much like the dollar swap lines, these are mainly to ensure that non-euro area central banks have sufficient euro liquidity as the virus crisis continues to play out. "The European Central Bank (ECB) decided in December 2020 to offer a nine-month extension of its temporary swap and repo lines with non-euro area central banks. The central banks of Albania, Croatia, Hungary, the Republic of North Macedonia, Romania, San Marino and Serbia have agreed to extend the duration of their euro liquidity lines with the ECB to March 2022." Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of Gold, I found that the sellers are very consistent and in full control, which is sign that selling power is much stronger then demand power. As I mentonied yesterday there is the downside movement and potential for the test of the pinbar low at $1,803. Key Levels: Resistance: $1,830 Support levels: $1,803 Analysis of Gold for February 04,.2021 - Watch for selling opportunities if you see the breakout of upside channel 2021-02-04 Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that the buyers are exhausted and that there is potential for the downside movement. Key Levels: Resistance: $38,500 Support levels: $32,375 and $29,565. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Ivan Aleksandrov Ivan Aleksandrov Andrey Shevchenko Andrey Shevchenko Zhizhko Nadezhda Graduated from Irkutsk State University. Having acquainted with Forex market in 2008, followed the courses in the International Academy of Stock Exchange Trading. The agenda was so exiting that she moved to St. Petersburg in order to get professional education. Obtained a diploma of the retraining course on the discipline Exchange market and stock market issues, defended the graduation paper with distinction on the subject "Modern technical indicators as the basis of the trading system". At the moment obtains a master degree in International Banking Institute on specialty Financial markets and investments. Apart from trading is occupied with development of trading systems and formalization of the working strategies using Ichimoku indicator. At the moment is working on the book dedicated to the peculiarities of Ichimoku indicator and its operating methods. Interests: yoga, literature, travelling and photograph. "You can only get smarter by playing a smarter opponent" Basics of Chess play, 1883 "Successful people change by themselves, the others are changed by life" Jim Rohn Petar Jacimovic Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work" Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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