| Analysis of GBP/USD on January 20. UK inflation supported the demand for pound 2021-01-20  The section of trend, which began on September 23, has taken a complete five-wave form. However, the internal wave pattern of the supposed wave 5 in 5 is still not fully convincing, which may require some additions and correction in the entire wave 5. Nevertheless, the upward trend has been long nearing its end. In any case, the pound still has high demand. A successful attempt to break the previous high (around 1.37th mark) will lead to another complication in the upward section of the trend.  The wave marking in the smaller time frame also made certain changes and might likely be corrected again. Currently, it is quite possible to continue the growth of the pair within the 5 in 5 in 5 wave, but the wave pattern of wave 5 to 5 does not look quite convincing. A successful attempt to break down an important 127.2% Fibonacci level will indicate that the markets are ready to buy the pound again, which can further complicate the upward trend. The demand for the pound has recently risen again, although there were no important news and reports from the UK during this period of time. Inflation report was only released this morning, which showed an acceleration to 0.6% y/y. Last month, the consumer price index was 0.3% y/y. Markets received such growth optimistically. At the moment, the quotes have already returned to the level of 1.37. Attempts to break through it failed three times. Nevertheless, the fourth attempt is expected to end successfully and if not, then we will try for the fifth time. And although the markets have not yet even built a three-wave correction structure in recent weeks, they still maintain a positive mood. Today, Bank of England's Governor, Andrew Bailey, will make another speech. The Governor was not extremely optimistic for the first time (at the beginning of the year), but the markets responded to it in the form of buying the pound. If Bailey discusses the topic of negative rates again and expresses his skepticism about them, the pound may grow even stronger. All other news from the UK has currently no effect in the markets – neither the third lockdown, nor the growing COVID-19 case in the last month, nor the threat of recession. This means that nothing can stop the pound's increase. At the same time, news from the US about Donald Trump's resignation and Joe Biden's inauguration also do not have much impact. At the very least, it is difficult to draw a parallel between these events and the new fall in the dollar. Overall conclusion and recommendations: The GBP/USD pair can continue the construction of the upward section of the trend. Thus, it is recommended to buy this pair after it successfully breaks through the 127.2% Fibonacci level, with targets located near the 40th mark located within the expected 5 in 5 in 5 wave of the upward trend section. But if it fails to do so, the quotes may leave the reached highs. EUR/USD: Biden's inauguration could set a medium-term decline in USD. Trade policy towards China will not change with the new administration. 2021-01-20 Janet Yellen, who will take over as the new US Treasury Secretary, said in a speech yesterday that she directly supports large-scale fiscal stimulus measures. She pointed out that the US economy will face a recession if the Congress does not approve additional assistance. Yellen advocates a further increase in stimulus and major changes in fiscal policy, which caused a number of grievances among Republicans. 
In another note, today, Joe Biden will be inaugurated as the new US president. Last week, he presented a new program of assistance to the economy, the amount of which is $ 1.9 trillion. It includes $ 1,400 payments to most households (plus the $ 600 that Trump promoted), as well as the allocation of additional funds for social programs and the fight against the coronavirus pandemic. The program also provides assistance to businesses and large corporations. Going back to Yellen, she touched on the issue with China. In particular, of how Beijing is utilizing unfair trade dynamics. Yellen is also not the only one from the newly-formed administration who advocated maintaining active pressure on China. For example, Antony Blinken, who will take over as US Secretary of State, said he agreed with the Trump administration that China's actions threaten the stability of the US economy. In a statement to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Blinken proposed to ban imports of goods produced in Xinjiang and to ban exports to companies that engage in rights violations. Avril Haines, Biden's candidate for the post of Director of National Intelligence also issued a similar statement. Haynes said she wants to use intelligence to better support efforts to counter China's unfair, illegal and aggressive human rights practices. Yellen also noted that she is ready to use a full set of tools to combat price dumping imposed by China, as well as the provision of illegal subsidies to corporations. With regards to exchange rates, Yellen abandoned the use of policies to gain a competitive advantage. This is in contrast to the actions of former Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, who has repeatedly expressed his preference for a weaker dollar. Yellen said her goal is to resist attempts by other countries to gain a trade advantage, thus hinting at China's attempts to do so with the weak yuan. 
At the end of her speech, Yellen mentioned the increasing national debt and US budget deficit. But at the moment, the main goal is to help people amid the coronavirus pandemic and support investments in infrastructure and technology. An important moment for the US economy is the payment of interest on government bonds, which are now below the level observed in 2008 during the financial crisis. According to Yellen, this strengthens the argument for using additional funding to help the economy hit by the pandemic. 
As for the EU, the IMF said it forecasts the German economy to grow by 3.5% in 2021, after contracting by 5.4% in 2020. Economic recovery will be fragile and uneven, depending on the effectiveness of the fight against the coronavirus. The real economic recovery will begin only after the widespread distribution of the vaccine, which is projected to happen only by fall. In this regard, production will return to pre-crisis levels only at the beginning of 2022, as Germany's export dependence makes it more vulnerable due to lower external demand. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to rise from 4.2% to 4.3%, while the budget deficit is expected to decrease to 3.4% of GDP. Aside from that, the IMF also released an economic forecast for France, that is, a jump of about 5.5% this year. However, medium-term production will remain below pre-crisis levels until early next year. As for the unemployment rate, it is expected to rise to 10.4% this year, while the budget deficit will decrease to 7.7%. National debt, on the other hand, will grow to 117.6% of GDP. With regards to EUR/USD, further direction will depend on trading activity at 1.2110. In particular, if the bulls manage to hold the quote above this level, EUR/USD may rise to 1.2180 and 1.2225. But if the bears successfully drag the euro down to 1.2055, the quote will drop to 1.1990 and 1.1920. An interesting report was also published by EU banks yesterday. The ECB said credit standards for enterprises were tightened in the fourth quarter, and the conditions for household loans were changed significantly. The changes were due to a deterioration in the overall economic outlook, as well as an increase in the credit risk of borrowers. The situation is expected to escalate in the first quarter of this year. The report also said demand for loans in the fourth quarter continued to decline, while the demand for home loans increased. As for consumer lending, there is a noticeable decrease in demand. Despite this, banks note that government guarantees are helping to maintain more favorable lending conditions this year. Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 20, 2021 2021-01-20  Overview : The GBP/USD pair can still form an ascending impulse, it continues to rise upwards. The major support is seen at 1.3611 which coincides with the ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion. According to the main scenario, it may start forming correctional structures. Today, we foresee the price to move towards the level of 1.3710 and then reach a new maximum again around the price of 1.3750. Please, note that the strong resistance stands at the level of 1.3750. If the price breaks the level of 1.3710, we expect potential testing of 1.3750. The current ascending structure implies that the market may reach the level of 1.3800. The bullish outlook remains the same as long as the RSI indicator is pointing to the upside on the four-hour chart. In this area, the trend is challenging a major resistance level. The ascending impulse is strong enough to buy above the support of 1.3710. Therefore, the price is expected to reach a high once again. It is rather gainful to buy at 1.3710 with the targets at 1.3750 and 1.3800. So, it is recommended to place take profit at the price of 1.3800 as the third target today. On the contrary, stop loss should be placed at the price of 1.3611 (below the daily support). Conclusion : - The depicted resistance level of 1.3611 acted as an important key level offering a valid buuy entry. Hence, buy above the 1.3611 level with the targets of 1.3750, 1.3800in coming 48 hours. Conversely, stop loss should be placed below the high reached near the second support (1.3611). Buy Stop and Sell Stop are more precise to place your orders that what you will see in our weekly strategies.
Alternative scenario : - The breakdown of 1.3611 will allow the pair to go further down to the levels of 1.3511 and 1.3450 (bottom).
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 20, 2021 2021-01-20  Overview : The EUR/USD pair continues to move upwards from the area of 1.2054 - 1.2124. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 1.2124, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 1.2054 , which coincides with the last bearish wave. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the EUR/USD pair to trade between 1.2054 and 1.2167. So, the support stands at 1.2054, while daily resistance is found at 1.2167. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.2100 - 1.2130. Hence, strong support will be found at the level of 1.2054 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 1.2167. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 1.2167, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 1.2202in order to test the daily resistance 2. The EUR/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.2202. The market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Forecast : Buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.2054/1.2100 with the first target at the level of 1.2167; and continue towards 0.6766 the next objectives 1.2202. However, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the support level of 1.2054 today, the market will decline further to 1.1996. Trading idea for gold 2021-01-20  To date, gold continues to rally in the markets, approaching a price level of 1863. The growth took place during the Asian session, and the movement totaled about 4,000 pips.  Taking this into account, it would be best to open positions targeting 1863 and beyond. Otherwise, you will fall into a sellers trap, aside from the fact that there is no place here to hide risks. But in case of a true breakout in 1863, gold's next target will be 1965. Of course, risks are needed to be monitored to avoid losing profit. Trading is very precarious, but also profitable if the approach used is correct. The strategy above uses Price Action and Stop Hunting methods. Good luck! Analysis of Gold for January 20,.2021 -Upside continuation and potential for the larger upside movement towards $1.863 2021-01-20 US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 15 January -1.9% vs +16.7% prior Latest data from the Mortgage Bankers Association for the week ending 15 January 2021 - Market index 946.8 vs 965.2 prior
- Purchase index 348.2 vs 338.9 prior
- Refinancing index 4,484.2 vs 4,706.3 prior
- 30-year mortgage rate 2.92% vs 2.88% prior
The drop in the overall market index comes from a larger decline in refinancing activity, meanwhile purchases surged higher once again as the housing market continues to keep more robust to start the new year. The jump in the purchase index pushes it to the highest since November 2008. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart Gold, I found that buyers reacted as I expected and that Gold is heading towards the $1,863. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got VIX and Live Cattle today and on the bottom Natural Gas nad Soybean Meal. Gold is positive on the list, which is good confirmation for the rise,,,, Key Levels: Resistance: $1,863 and $1,957 Support level: $1,805 EUR/USD analysis for January 20 2021 - Potential for the another upside movement towards 1..2220 2021-01-20 No change to the initial estimates and this reaffirms that core inflation in the euro area keeps at a record low towards the end of 2020. Further Development 
Analyzing the current trading chart of EUR/USD, I found that EUR tested my yesterday's upside target at 1,2155 but it rejected today. Stochastic is in overbought zone and we got the fresh bear cross, which is sign that there is potential for downside movement first. 1-Day relative strength performance Finviz 
Based on the graph above I found that on the top of the list we got VIX and Live Cattle today and on the bottom Natural Gas nad Soybean Meal. Key Levels: Resistance: 1,2160 and 1,2220 Support level: 1,2055
Author's today's articles: Alexander Dneprovskiy  Graduated from Kiev State University of Economics. On Forex market since 2007. Started his work at Forex as a trader. Since 2008 is working as a currency analyst. Pavel Vlasov  No data Mourad El Keddani  Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Andrey Shevchenko  Andrey Shevchenko Petar Jacimovic  Petar was born on July 08, 1989 in Serbia. Graduated from Economy University and after has worked as a currency analyst for large private investors. Petar has been involved in the world of finance since 2007. In this trading he specializes in Volume Price Action (volume background, multi Fibonacci zones, trend channels, supply and demand). He also writes the market analytical reviews for Forex forums and websites. Moreover Petar is forex teacher and has wide experience in tutoring and conducting webinars. Interests : finance, travelling, sports, music "The key to success is hard work"
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A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda
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