Friday, January 22, 2021

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Trading plan for EUR/USD on January 22
2021-01-22

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COVID-19 mortality peaked yesterday, reaching a huge 4,300 deaths in the US. Other countries also recorded all-time highs.

With regards to vaccinations, the pace is still slow around the world.

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EUR/USD - the euro is moving without a definite direction.

Open short positions from 1.2075.

Open long positions after a decline.

Simplified wave analysis and forecast for EUR/USD and GBP/JPY on January 22
2021-01-22

EUR/USD

Analysis:

The unfinished section of the upward trend has been counting down since November 4 last year. In the last month and a half, the price forms a correction in the form of a stretched plane. Since January 18, a section of the chart that does not have a reversal potential and does not go beyond the rollback of the last part of the bearish wave has been developing upwards.

Forecast:

Over the next day, the general mood of the movement is likely. The pair's upward trend is expected to end, then reverse and re-decline to the support area. When the exchange rate changes, a sharp increase in volatility is not excluded.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 1.2210/1.2240

Support:

- 1.2140/1.2110

Recommendations:

Today, trading the euro is possible within the intraday. The potential for purchases is limited by the calculated resistance. Sales from the resistance zone look more promising.

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GBP/JPY

Analysis:

The upward wave of the pair, which began in March last year, is approaching the lower border of the wide zone of a potential reversal of a large TF. Until the end of the entire current wave, you can not count on long downward movements.

Forecast:

Today, in the first half of the day, a flat mood of movement in the side plane is more likely. A short-term decline is not excluded, not further than the support zone. Activation and an attempt to break through the nearest resistance is likely at the end of the day or the beginning of next week.

Potential reversal zones

Resistance:

- 143.50/143.80

- 142.20/142.50

Support:

- 141.50/135.60

Recommendations:

Selling the pair today can be risky and is not recommended. The main attention should be paid to the search for signals for the purchase of the instrument.

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Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted line shows the expected movements.

Attention: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the tool movements in time!

EUR/USD: plan for the European session on January 22. COT reports (analysis of deals). Euro aims to surpass 1.2178 and continue the upward correction
2021-01-22

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Several signals to enter the market appeared yesterday. The bulls surpassed 1.2130 in the first half of the day during the European session. Being able to test this level from top to bottom resulted in a good long entry point, which was fully realized during the speech of European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde. I recommended taking profits and opening short positions from the 1.2174 level. Selling from 1.2174 led to a slight downward correction of 20 points. There were no other signals to enter the market.

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Considering that the pair spent the afternoon in a horizontal channel, from a technical point of view, nothing has changed much. Lagarde's speech was rather deterrent, although many expected that she would outline a brighter outlook for the economy. This did not happen, and neither did a major rise in the euro. The whole emphasis has shifted to the 1.2174 level. A breakthrough of this range and being able to test it from top to bottom creates a good signal to enter long positions in hopes to reach a high of 1.2220, where I recommend taking profits. A high of 1.2260 is a distant target, and such a breakthrough is hardly possible today. If the bulls are unable to do anything at the 1.2178 level in the first half of the day, then there is a risk of a downward correction to the support area of 1.2138, where a false breakout will be a signal to open longs in sustaining the trend. There are also moving averages that play on the side of the euro buyers. If buyers are noticeably inactive at the 1.2138 area, then it is best to wait for a downward correction to the more powerful area of 1.2098, where the lower border of the new rising channel passes. You can open long positions immediately on a rebound from it, counting on an upward movement of 20-25 points within the day.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Sellers of the euro will focus on forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.2178. However, only weak fundamental data on the European economy, and since a number of important reports on activity in the manufacturing and services sectors will be released today, could significantly weigh on the euro, which will open a direct way to the area of yesterday's support at 1.2138. Moving averages also pass there, so it will hardly be possible to fall below this level the first time. A lot depends on this range, as its breakout will result in removing a number of stop orders of the bulls and EUR/USD could fall to the 1.2098 area, where the lower border of the current rising channel passes. I recommend taking profit there. If the euro grows above the 1.2178 level in the first half of the day, it is best not to rush to sell, but wait for an update of resistance at 1.2220, where forming a false breakout will be a signal to open short positions. I recommend selling EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the 1.2260 area, counting on a downward correction of 20-30 points within the day.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for January 12 recorded a sharp increase in long positions and a reduction in short ones. Buyers of risky assets continue to believe in a bullish trend, especially after such a large decline in the euro earlier this year, which made it possible for new large players to enter the market. Vaccination against the first strain of coronavirus continues in Europe, leading to new buyers for the euro. The likely approval of the next $1.9 trillion bailout plan for the US economy is likely to further erode the dollar. A limiting factor for the euro's growth is the risk of extending quarantine measures in February this year, both in Germany and in a number of other European countries. Thus, long non-commercial positions increased from 224,832 to 228,757, while short non-commercial positions fell from 81,841 to 72,867. Due to the sharp drop in short positions, the total non-commercial net position increased from 143,902 to 155,890 a week earlier.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by euro buyers to return to the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.2130 area will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A breakout of the lower boundary at 1.2089 will increase pressure on the pair.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
GBP/USD: plan for the European session on January 22. COT reports (analysis of deals). Pound actively grows. Aims to surpass 1.3743
2021-01-22

To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:

I did not enter the market despite the fact that a fairly large upward movement of the pound took place yesterday morning. I waited for a return and a false breakout at 1.3669 and only then did I plan to open long positions at these prices. Rising to the new resistance at 1.3716, which took place in the first half of the day, resulted in this level constantly being tested from top to bottom. At the very beginning, this resulted in creating a good entry point for sustaining the pair's growth. But then, as the bears were constantly smearing this level, and the upward movement was interrupted each time at around 1.3735, it ended up showing a result of only 20 points in profit, I left long positions in order not to get into a reverse downward correction, like the one which could be observed the day before.

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The pound buyers are currently focused on protecting support at 1.3704, which was formed by the results of the US session. The pair's succeeding direction depends on it. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will make it possible for us to expect that the pound would rise to an annual high of 1.3743. A breakout of 1.3743 and being able to test this area from top to bottom will hit a number of buyers' stop orders and result in a new strong bullish momentum and an exit to the 1.3803 high, where I recommend taking profits. The downward correction for the pound will intensify if bulls cannot protect support at 1.3704 in the first half of the day, and today we have a number of important fundamental reports on retail sales and activity in the service sector and manufacturing in the UK. In this case, it is best not to rush into long positions, but wait until support at 1.3669 has been updated, from which a new wave of growth was formed yesterday. However, I recommend buying the pound from there only if a false breakout is present. If bulls are not active at this level, I recommend postponing longs until the low of 1.3624 has been tested, where you can open long positions immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 25-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:

The bears will do their best to regain control of the 1.3704 level and rely on weak fundamental statistics at the end of last year. The main thing is that the final data diverges with economists' forecasts for the worse. After getting the pair to settle below the 1.3704 range and testing it from the bottom up, one can expect a resumption of the downward correction and being able to return to the 1.3669 area. We can only talk about a more powerful bearish momentum when sellers have finally achieved a breakdown of this level, as this will open a direct road for GBP/USD to the lows of 1.3624 and 1.3585, where I recommend taking profits. You have to be very careful with short positions in case the pair grows in the first half of the day. Forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3743 generates a signal to open short positions. I recommend selling GBP/USD immediately on a rebound from a high of 1.3803, counting on a small correction of 25-30 points within the day.

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The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for January 12 recorded an increase in both long and short positions, but there were more of the first ones, which caused the delta to increase. Long non-commercial positions increased from 35,526 to 47,935. At the same time, short non-commercial positions increased from 31,861 to 34,993. We can see that sellers turned out to be much less than new buyers. As a result, the non-commercial net position rose to 12,942 against 3,665 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders continue to bet on the strengthening of the pound, even in the face of the new Covid-19 strain, for which there is no vaccine yet. The demand for the pound is limited by quarantine measures in the UK, which will sooner or later be canceled after the infection situation stabilizes. The Bank of England's recent refusal to introduce negative interest rates and the pound's decline earlier this year have brought many large medium-term buyers back into the market, expecting a continuation of the bull market this spring.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out just above the 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates succeeding growth for the pair.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

A breakout of the upper border of the indicator at 1.3743 will lead to a new wave of growth. A break of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.3704 area will increase the pressure on the pound.

Description of indicators

  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart.
  • Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart.
  • MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9
  • Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20
  • Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements.
  • Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Non-commercial short positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders.
  • Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.
EUR/USD. PMI, ZEW and a weakening USD
2021-01-22

The US dollar index declines continuously. This indicator is slowly but quite confidently moving towards the base of the 90th mark, expressing the general skepticism in the market about the US currency. This fact allows the buyers of the pair to maintain above the support level of 1.2150 (Tenkan-sen line on D1) and expect to retest the nearest resistance level of 1.2200 (middle line of the Bollinger Bands, coinciding with the Kijun-sen line). Today's Asian session was quite calm, without any superior strength that could provoke volatility. The currency market is quite moving by inertia, supported by the dollar's gradual weakening.

In fact, the US currency has become a victim to its protective status, which has a high demand in times of uncertainty and rising anti-risk sentiment. But as soon as the difficult times are over, all traders take profits and abandon this currency. In early 2021, there was a stir around the dollar, following the tragic events in Washington, when Trump supporters decided to attack the Capitol. This event was historic, not to mention there were people who died due to the confrontation. This assault was a kind of culmination of the events that had unfolded throughout the previous weeks, starting on November 3rd. Rumors that Trump would refuse to hand over power to his successor started interest in a safe dollar, while the Washington event acted as a trigger – the demand for the US currency increased in many ways, but it turned out that it was the last shot.

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The following US events that happened after that were predictable. Initially, it was clear that congressmen would not have time to consider the impeachment process before Trump's term ends, and so, this fundamental factor has currently completely faded in the background. If the Senate votes for Trump's impeachment in February, it will only act as a preventive measure so that Trump does not run for office in 2024. Meanwhile, Biden's inauguration went smoothly and without incident. The 46th president took office and has already signed a dozen executive orders, many of which canceled the presidential decrees of his predecessor. In particular, he returned the United States to the WHO and the climate agreement.

In the context of the currency market, this means that interest in protective instruments will continue to decline, as the political situation in the United States returned to its usual course. We are talking about the medium-term period, since the market will return to hot topics in February, which may return interest to the dollar again. In particular, this is about congressmen's approval of the "American Rescue Plan" in the amount of $ 1.9 trillion, and most importantly, about the prospects for US and China's further relations.

However, if we talk about a short time period, it will be difficult for the US dollar to find a reliable support point for the development of a large-scale rally. In view of the EUR/USD pair, this means that buyers will be able not only to test the resistance level of 1.2200, but also move to the target 1.2330 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands on D1) in the near future. Moreover, the euro is now in a fairly favorable position: First, the political crisis in Italy has stopped. Both houses of parliament supported Giuseppe Conte, who managed to keep the government and prevent early elections in the country. Secondly, the euro passed the test of the Central Bank: ECB members kept the parameters of monetary policy unchanged during their meeting yesterday, and Lagarde's rhetoric was restrained and optimistic. And although there has been some pessimistic comments about the near-term prospects, the overall result of the January meeting was in favor of the Euro currency.

Today, PMIs will be released in key European countries. Most experts believe that these indicators will reflect a certain trend: the manufacturing sector will remain above (the indicators will be released in light with the previous month), while the service sector will clearly decline, being in the "red" zone. This is not surprising, since quarantine restrictions, which are only strengthening in Europe, primarily hit the service sector.

At the same time, January's preliminary data will be discussed today, so we can now make certain conclusions about the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. It is worth recalling that the December ZEW indices came out much better this week than what was expected. The German business sentiment index surged to 61 points, against the forecast of 55 points; whereas, the pan-European index rose to 58 points, with a forecast growth of 54 points. If the PMIs follow the course of the ZEW indices, the euro will receive significant support.

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From a technical viewpoint, traders managed to break through the price level of 1.2150 (Tenkan-sen line on the daily time frame), but failed to reach the resistance level of 1.2200 (midline of the Bollinger Bands indicator, coinciding with the Kijun-sen line on the same timeframe). It is important for buyers to break through this resistance level to be able to further rise. The pair will be initially between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1, then the Ichimoku indicator will form a bullish signal "parade of lines", in which all the lines of the indicator will be under the price. In this case, the way towards the next main resistance level of 1.2330 (upper line of the Bollinger Bands) will be opened. Therefore, you can open longs a few points away from the current positions, that is, to the level of 1.2200, or to the level of 1.2330.

Technical analysis of EUR/USD for January 22, 2021
2021-01-22

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Overview :

The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.2233 to bottom at 1.2054 this week. But the trend rebounded from the last bearish wave of 1.2054 to close at the point of 1.2160.

Today, the EUR/USD pair faced strong support at the level of 1.2119.

So, the strong support has already faced at the level of 1.2119 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again.

Hence, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to trade in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2119; to form a bullish channel.

According to the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.2119 and 1.2223. Also, it should be noted major resistance is seen at 1.2223, while immediate resistance is found at 1.2186.

Then, we may anticipate potential testing of 1.2186 to take place soon. Moreover, if the pair succeeds in passing through the level of 1.2186, the market will indicate a bullish opportunity above the level of 1.2223. A breakout of that target will move the pair further upwards to 1.2254.

Buy orders are recommended above the area of 1.2119 with the first target at the level of 1.2186; and continue towards 1.2223, then 1.2254.

On the other hand, if the EUR/USD pair fails to break out through the resistance level of 1.2186 ; the market will decline further to the level of 1.2054 (daily support 2).

Bearish outlook :
  • Besides, the daily resistance 1 is seen at the level of 1.2223. However, traders should watch for any sign of a bullish rejection that occurs around 1.2223. The level of 1.2223 coincides with 100% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as a major resistance today. Since the trend is below the 1000% Fibonacci level, the market is still in a downtrend. Overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario.
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for January 22, 2021
2021-01-22

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Overview :

The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3608.

The pair rose from the level of 1.3660 (the level of 1.3660 coincides with a ratio of 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to a top around 1.3745. However, the trend moved downside and the structure of a fall does look corrective - close at 1.3670.

Today, the first support level is seen at 1.3608 followed by 1.525, while daily resistance 1 is seen at 1.3745.

According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3608 and 1.3790; for that we expect a range of 182 pips (1.3790 - 1.3608).

On the one-hour chart, immediate resistance is seen at 1.3745, which coincides with the highest price in last five days. Currently, the price is moving in a bullish channel.

This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market. The price is still above the moving average (100).

Therefore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level of 1.3745, we should see the pair climbing towards the daily resistance at 1.3790 to test it. It would also be wise to consider where to place stop loss; this should be set below the second support of 1.3523.

Forecast :

Amid the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3608 and 1.3790. The major support can be found at 1.3608 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 1.3790. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 1.3790, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 1.3790 in order to test the daily support 2. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay above the zone of 1.3608.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for January 22, 2021
2021-01-22

Technical Market Outlook:

The GBP/USD pair has made a new swing high at the level of 1.3744. After the high was made, the market consolidated for some short time and then pulled-back again towards the level of 1.3667. Only a sustained breakout above the level of 1.3744 will trigger another wave up, so the bears continue to defend the range located between the levels of 1.3744 - 1.3667. The strong and positive momentum supports the short-term bullish outlook despite the overbought market conditions.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.3982

WR2 - 1.3839

WR1 - 1.3718

Weekly Pivot - 1.3586

WS1 - 1.3464

WS2 - 1.3322

WS3 - 1.3204

Trading Recommendations:

The GBP/USD pair keeps developing the up trend and the trigger for this trend was the breakout above the level or 1.3518 on the weekly time frame chart. The recent top was made at the level of 1.3744. All the local corrections should be used to open a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. The long-term target for bulls is seen at the level of 1.4370.

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Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for January 22, 2021
2021-01-22

Technical Market Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair bounce has hit the level of 1.2177, which is the upper level of the short-term supply zone located between the levels of 1.2154 - 1.2177. The market reversed back to the level of 1.2154. In order to move higher, the bulls must break through 1.2177 clearly and rally towards the level of 1.2212. On the other hand, any failure here will reverse the bounce and the market will again resume the down move towards 1.2088 or lower. Please notice the overbought market conditions support the short-term bearish outlook.

Weekly Pivot Points:

WR3 - 1.2304

WR2 - 1.2263

WR1 - 1.2147

Weekly Pivot - 1.2111

WS1 - 1.2005

WS2 - 1.1985

WS3 - 1.1848

Trading Recommendations:

Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support seen at the level of 1.1609 is broken. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. The market made the Falling Wedge trend reversal pattern around the levels of 1.2200 - 1.2300 and now the corrective cycle might have started. Any violation of the level of 1.2154 supports the trend change/corrective cycle scenario.

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Technical analysis EUR/USD for January 22, 2021
2021-01-22

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I was giving a webinar on chart patterns for InstaForex yesterday and we went over 13 different charts and ended with some live examples from EUR/USD. As a follow-up, I will show the 4-hour EUR/USD chart as I have used as an example multiple time already. For the final part of the movement since December 28 till today, I have added the 30-minute chart adding the different chart patterns, starting with a S/H/S top playing out from January 5 to January 7. Once the S/H/S neckline broke at 1.2280, the price of EUR/USD went into a triangle consolidation before moving lower towards the S/H/S target at 1.2201. The descending price action struggled a bit after breaking down from the triangle consolidation and went into a Diamond consolidation - One of the more rare chart patterns as they can both be a topping and a continuation pattern. In this case, it was a continuation pattern as the price broke out to the downside to hit the S/H/S target at 1.2201 and the diamond target at 1.2149. Once the diamond target was hit, the price of EUR/USD went a bit lower before entering a sideways consolidation - a rectangle - which broke to the upside to test the triangle-resistance near 1.2222 before turning lower again to complete the decline at 1.2052 or the 50% corrective target of the rally from 1.1825 to 1.2296.

Once the low was in place, we saw the first S/H/S bottom grow into an even bigger S/H/S bottom with a target at 1.2266. As long as the price move higher from 1.2052 follows the path of higher highs and higher lows the short-term trend will be up as is the longer-term trend from 1.0736.

A day trader would follow the 30-minute chart or maybe even a shorter time-frame, while a medium-term trader would follow the 4-hour chart to stay with the trend for as long as possible.

Pattern recognition is one of the fundamental stepping stones for the technician to navigate the price action. and the targets that can be derived from the chart patterns are good guidelines for the possible next price target, but they are only guidelines as all patterns can exceed the price target or they can fail and miss the derived target.

Remember that the trend and patience are your friends

EUR/USD: Tax for wealthy Americans will be increased. Meanwhile, the EU is heading towards a double economic recession.
2021-01-22

The announcement of the ECB yesterday was unexpected. Its president, Christine Lagarde, said the EU economy is heading towards a double recession, but noted that the current bond purchase program is sufficient to offset it.

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In particular, Lagarde expects output to decline again this 1st quarter, as the ongoing lockdown is sure to disrupt activity in all sectors. And, as a result, GDP will most likely shrink in the first three months of this year.

In any case, the ECB still left interest rates unchanged, which is what many expected. Refinancing rate is still at 0%, while the rate on deposits is at -0.50%. The ECB reiterated that it will continue to maintain a very loose monetary policy.

With regards to the bond purchase program, the central bank also retained its current scope and scale. It will continue buying bonds worth € 20 billion monthly, but if necessary, the governing board is always ready to adjust all of its instruments.

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More detailed discussions (related to monetary policy) will take place at the next meeting in March. Lagarde said by that time, new economic data will be available, and the situation with COVID-19 will become clearer.

On the bright side, vaccinations, which began at the end of last year, are promising a faster resolution to the current health crisis.

Funds created for the EU are also helping sustain economic recovery.

But on a published data yesterday, consumer confidence in the EU was revealed to have deteriorated this January, dropping to -15.5 points, which is a bit lower from what economists had expected. This data was collected from January 1 to January 20, and the final figure will be published on January 28.

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As for the United States, news emerged that future Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is working to push for changes in the tax code, which did not appeal to all investors. This is because taxes for corporations and wealthy Americans will be increased, as Joe Biden and his administration is trying to make efforts to reduce infrastructure costs and do more social protection for the population. Yellen is awaiting Senate approval of her candidacy for the post of US Treasury Secretary. The Senate Committee is scheduled to vote on it today, although a full Senate approval vote may not take place until next week.

Meanwhile, on his first day at the White House, Joe Biden signed another package of documents aimed at implementing his plans to counter the spread of the coronavirus. The Biden administration plans to focus efforts on more active vaccination of the population, as well as the availability of tests for COVID-19.

With regards to macro statistics, a report from the US Department of Commerce said the volume of US housing construction in December rose from the previous month. Thus, the number of new homes (commissioned in December 2020) increased by 5.8%, to 1.669 million a year. Economists had expected a less modest rise in the indicator, by only 0.8%, to 1.560 million. Building permits also rose by 4.5%, totaling to 1.709 million a year.

As for the labor market, it continues to show very weak indicators, demonstrating weekly growth in applications for unemployment benefits. A report released by the US Department of Labor said initial claims were 900,000 last week, down by 26,000 from the previous week. Economists had expected the number to fall to only 910,000.

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But the moving average rose to 848,000, which suggests that outlook may improve, especially amid wider vaccine availability.

Meanwhile, other economic reports, which are scheduled to be published today, may lead to a surge in market volatility. Retail sales, lending data and UK procurement briefs are expected to come out this morning.

With regards to the EUR/USD pair, the picture remained the same. Bulls have spent a lot of energy to keep the market on their side. However, an upward trend will resume only if the quote consolidates above 1.2180. Such a move will enable EUR/USD to reach price levels 1.2230 and 1.2280. But if the bears manage to regain control of the market, the euro could fall to 1.2090, and then drop to 1.2055.

Forex forecast 01/22/2021 on EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY and Crude Oil from Sebastian Seliga
2021-01-22

Let's take a look at the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, USD/JPY and Crude Oil technical picture in the last and busy trading day of the week.





Author's today's articles:

Mihail Makarov

-

Vyacheslav Ognev

Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle

Maxim Magdalinin

In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006.

Irina Manzenko

Irina Manzenko

Mourad El Keddani

Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development).
Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch.
Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy.

Sebastian Seliga

Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu

Torben Melsted

Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets.

Pavel Vlasov

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Theme's:
Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets
Author's :
A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda

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