| | | | | |  | | By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver | Presented by Harry's | Editor's Note: Morning Money is a free version of POLITICO Pro Financial Services' morning newsletter, which is delivered to our subscribers each morning at 6 a.m. The POLITICO Pro platform combines the news you need with tools you can use to take action on the day's biggest stories. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro. | | | Welcome to hell week — Congress has until Friday to fund the government and perhaps finally inject some fresh stimulus into a struggling economy suffering through another massive Covid-19 surge. And it somehow has to do this with large differences remaining over stimulus spending priorities and an outgoing president focused almost exclusively on a fantasy world in which he did not lose. This sounds impossible. But it's not. Congress has connected on some Hail Mary's in the past and could again, given significant areas of bipartisan agreement on small business aid in particular. But it remains a long-shot — even though there is ample reason for approving significant new stimulus this week given the obvious further slowing evident in the November jobs report. The labor force shrank. Job growth slowed. Per CNBC, the share of workers unemployed over six months is close to a historical peak. And it's probably too late — MM has said for a while that Congress already pretty much missed the window for avoiding another economic blow. Stimulus has already run through the system. The slow-down is already here. All Capitol Hill can do is stop it from getting worse. Via Pantheon's Ian Shepherdson: "Payroll growth has slowed in the face of the Covid third wave. The slowdown between October and November was broad, with the leisure/hospitality and retail sectors suffering badly … "We can see absolutely no reason why payroll growth would rebound in December or January, even if Congress passes a stimulus bill over the next few days. It takes time for money to start flowing, and for firms and individuals to react to it, and for the data then to capture that reaction" GOOD MONDAY MORNING — Happy Monday, 44 days until the inauguration. Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver. | | | | A message from Harry's: Introducing Harry's new, sharper blades: From past experience with other brands, we've grown used to razor innovations often leading to higher price tags. Not this time around. Men's grooming startup Harry's just came out with their sharpest blades ever—without raising prices, breaking the traditional pattern of upcharging used by many razor companies. Learn more about Harry's new, sharper blades and how you can give them a try, 100% risk-free. | | | | | | STRESS TEST PREVIEW — CapAlpha's Ian Katz: "The Fed announced that it will release the stress test results Friday, Dec. 18 at 4:30 p.m. ET, about the least market-sensitive time it could have chosen. "We remain skeptical that the Fed will lift the share buyback ban for the largest banks for Q1 2021. While we expect the banks to perform well on the tests as a group, the broader economic data, politics and optics don't point to a loosening of the restrictions." DEESE THE HAWK — Our Victoria Guida and Zachary Warmbrodt: "Joe Biden's first order of business as president will be convincing Congress to approve massive new government spending … But the man he has put in charge of his economic policy was on the side of deficit hawks during the last recovery, which is sparking concern among progressives now. "Brian Deese, who will become National Economic Council director, talked extensively about the need to curb government spending as deputy NEC director under President Barack Obama, over the protests of many Democrats. Deese also irked progressives by helping to push landmark 2012 legislation rolling back financial regulations that was billed as good for economic growth. FIRST LOOK: BUSINESS GROUPS PRESS FOR AID — The Economic Innovation Group (EIG) and a "broad coalition of leading business and policy groups" are sending a letter pressing Congress to get stimulus done. BIDEN PICKS CDC CHIEF — Our Tyler Pager scooped: "President-elect Joe Biden has selected Rochelle Walensky, the chief of infectious diseases at Massachusetts General Hospital, to run the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention … "Walensky, who is also a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, will be tasked with rebuilding a critical health agency that has been sidelined by the Trump administration amid a pandemic." LONG READ … Ian Frisch in Esquire on "the inside story of a black sheep hedge fund, their massive bet that shopping malls would crash, and how they proved Wall Street wrong." GOLDMAN TO NY: DROP DEAD? — Bloomberg's Sridhar Natarajan: "Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is weighing plans for a new Florida hub to house one of its key divisions, in another potential blow to New York's stature as the de facto home of the U.S. financial industry. "Executives have been scouting office locations in South Florida, speaking with local officials and exploring tax advantages as they consider creating a base there for its asset management arm, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The bank's success in operating remotely during the pandemic has persuaded members of the leadership team that they can move more roles out of the New York area to save money." | | | |   | | | | | | STOCK FUTURES RISE SLIGHTLY AFTER FRIDAY'S RECORD-SETTING SESSION — CNBC's Fred Imbert: "U.S. stock futures rose slightly on Sunday night following a record-setting session as Wall Street searched for clues on additional fiscal aid. "Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded higher by 50 points, or 0.2 percent. S&P 500 climbed 0.2 percent, and Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.3 percent. The major averages posted intraday and closing all-time highs on Friday, with the Dow popping more than 200 points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.9 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively." UPDATE: Futures turned slightly red later Sunday night. AND ASIA WENT NEGATIVE ON VIRUS CONERNS — Via Reuters: "Asian shares retreated from a record peak on Monday after a Reuters report the United States was preparing to impose sanctions on some Chinese officials highlighted geopolitical tensions, while oil prices fell on surging virus cases. … "China's blue-chip index dropped 0.6% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 1.2%. … The sell-off began after Reuters exclusively reported, citing sources, that the United States was preparing sanctions on at least a dozen Chinese officials over their alleged role in Beijing's disqualification of elected opposition legislators in Hong Kong"
| | | | THIS WEEK - DON'T MISS #MIHealthSummit: POLITICO will feature a special edition Future Pulse newsletter at the Milken Institute Future of Health Summit this week. Go inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators determined to confront and conquer the most transformative health challenges. The pandemic exposed weaknesses across our health systems, particularly in treating our most vulnerable communities. This year's conference focuses on the converging crises of public health, economic insecurity, and social justice. Sign up today for exclusive coverage from December 7–9. | | | | | THANK THE FED FOR THE STOCK MARKET'S RUN — WSJ's James Mackintosh: "Many investors are still bewildered that the shock of 2020's economy gave rise to the awe that is this year's stock market. The puzzle gets worse: Stocks have done better than their norm of the past century even if you invested at the high in 2007 and held through both the worst financial crisis and worst pandemic in 100 years. What on Earth is going on? "The answer should give pause to investors who plan to hold for the long run. Stocks have won big, not primarily because earnings went up but because the cost of money went down almost to zero. A repeat in the next decade is almost inconceivable, which means future returns are likely to be pedestrian, at best." THE EMERGING-MARKET RALLY IS STARTING TO STIR LONGEVITY DOUBTS — Bloomberg's Netty Idayu Ismail, Sydney Maki and Lilian Karunungan: "For all the risks of a year-end cooling-off period, emerging-market backers can't complain about the lie of the land right now. "From the rollout of vaccination programs in some countries to rising commodity prices and the prospect of a breakthrough in U.S. stimulus talks, there are plenty of tailwinds to justify the buying spree that has sent gauges of developing-nation stocks, currencies and bonds to five straight weeks of gains. Inflows into emerging markets reached a monthly record in November, according to the Institute of International Finance." | | | | A message from Harry's: Harry's just came out with its sharpest blades ever. But what do sharper blades mean for you? Well, guys who shave four times a week say that, with Harry's new blades, their eighth shave is as smooth as their first. And yet, Harry's didn't raise prices—not even a little. Harry's new, sharper blades are (still) just $2 each for an 8-pack. But you don't have to take our word for it. Snag a Trial Set and decide for yourself. (And remember: if you don't love your shave, just let them know and get a full refund. That's their 100% Quality Guarantee at harrys.com). | | | | | | BLEAK OUTLOOK FOR MILLIONS FACING CUTOFF OF JOBLESS AID — AP's Christopher Rugaber and Casey Smith: "The end of jobless aid is approaching at an especially perilous time. Job growth slowed sharply in November, and the resurgence of viral cases appears to be out of control across the country. Even with the prospect of an effective vaccine being widely distributed in coming months, economists say the picture will worsen before it improves. Many foresee a net loss of jobs in December for the first time since April. "On Friday, President-elect Joe Biden called on Congress to quickly approve a bipartisan $908 billion package that would establish a $300-a-week jobless benefit as well as send aid to states and localities, help schools and universities, revive subsidies for businesses and support transit systems and airlines. Details are still being worked out, but the outlines of a final bill could emerge soon." EUROPE SEEKS TO BOOST PANDEMIC-DAMAGED ECONOMY BY SPENDING — WSJ's Paul Hannon: "Europe hopes to spur an economic recovery from the pandemic by boosting government spending, a shift in strategy from the 2008 financial crisis that economists say could lift the global economy. Two events in the coming week are set to underscore the change. "First, European Union leaders on Thursday will begin a series of virtual meetings aimed at gaining final approval of a €750 billion fund, the equivalent of $912 billion, borrowed by the bloc as a whole to aid countries hit hardest by the pandemic's effects. The European Central Bank the same day will almost certainly announce an expansion of its bond-purchasing program, with the explicit aim of keeping down borrowing costs for governments, thereby enabling them to spend more freely." | | | | JOIN TUESDAY TO POWER FORWARD WITH WOMEN RULE: Americans have endured multiple crises in 2020, from the pandemic to the economic recession, racial injustices, and a highly contentious presidential election. Women have often led the way in helping the country navigate these crises and will continue to in the new year. Join us for the conclusion of "Powering Forward," a series of virtual conversations that has brought the Women Rule community together during a year that changed how women live, work, and lead. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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