Monday, December 7, 2020

Defense policy bill faces final test — Progressives to put forward preferred picks — Spike in civilian deaths in Afghan war

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By Bryan Bender

Presented by Northrop Grumman

With Lara Seligman, Jacqueline Feldscher and Connor O'Brien

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Quick Fix

Congress is facing a lame duck bottleneck, including the defense bill, UAE arms sales and averting a government shutdown.

Progressives are building a list of candidates to fill out Biden's national security team.

Relaxed rules on airstrikes in Afghanistan are leading to more civilian deaths, according to a new report out today.

HAPPY MONDAY AND WELCOME TO MORNING DEFENSE , on the 79th anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. The U.S. Pacific Fleet will hold a commemoration ceremony at 12:50 EST, though the exceedingly few remaining survivors can't be there in person. We can't help but wonder whether only a violent foreign enemy can unite us. Clearly not a global pandemic nor growing threats to our ecosystem. "Let us remember," President Gerald Ford told us during another difficult period, "that our national unity is a most priceless asset." We're always on the lookout for tips, pitches and feedback. Email us at bbender@politico.com, and follow on Twitter @bryandbender, @morningdefense and @politicopro.

 

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On the Hill

WELCOME TO HELL WEEK: Congress enters the decisive days of the lame duck session with a huge to-do list and little time to accomplish it — including passing a final defense policy bill, funding the government, and clinching another round of coronavirus relief. Lawmakers could sew it all up this week or it could fall apart, as POLITICO's Burgess Everett writes .

NDAA vote: The House is set to vote Tuesday on the final National Defense Authorization Act and buck Trump's threat to veto the bill because it doesn't repeal legal protections for tech companies, our colleague Connor O'Brien reports.

The question is whether it will gain enough bipartisan support to overcome a veto. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer predicted Friday both chambers will "overwhelmingly" pass the defense policy bill and muster a veto-proof two-thirds majority.

Republicans are wary of crossing Trump and some hope he reconsiders. But the congressional unity on the bill caused Trump to lash out last week at Senate Armed Services Chair Jim Inhofe, one of his closest allies in Congress, for not repealing the social media protections as part of the NDAA.

Omnibus or CR? Lawmakers have until midnight on Friday to pass a new government funding measure to avert a government shutdown. Talks for the $1.4 trillion omnibus package have been ongoing since last month, but now a final bill may get even bigger, POLITICO's Caitlin Emma and Heather Caygle report.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi says she also wants to attach a coronavirus relief bill and reports that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell agreed on combining the two.

But it might take a little longer to nail down a deal. The number of outstanding issues in the spending bill this late in the game means congressional leaders may offer up a brief funding patch to buy negotiators more time to reach a broader deal.

VOTE ON ARMS SALE: The Senate is also expected to vote on a bill as early as this week to halt the proposed sale of fighter jets, drones and missiles to the United Arab Emirates over concerns it could fuel an arms race, cause more human misery in Yemen's civil war and undermine Israel's security.

The vote comes as the Trump administration crows about how many high-tech weapons it is selling around the globe. On Friday, the State and Defense departments reported the government has authorized more than $175 billion in foreign arms sales in 2020, a 2.8 percent increase from fiscal 2019, our colleague Jacqueline Feldscher reports .

Officials lauded the security and economic benefits of the deals. "We're increasingly expanding our sales, moving beyond standard U.S. programs of record, and offering a rising number of non-program-of-record systems, which are opportunities to integrate ally and partner nation systems into the U.S. platforms," Heidi Grant, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, told reporters.

R. Clarke Cooper, assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs, also cited an estimated one million domestic jobs that are directly supported by foreign arms sales.

But is it something to be so proud of? William Hartung, an analyst at the progressive Center for International Policy, doesn't think so. "Pushing out tens of billions of dollars worth of weaponry is not in and of itself an accomplishment worth bragging about," he said. "It depends on who is getting the arms and what they are likely to be used for. The recent offers of $23 billion worth of combat aircraft, armed drones, and bombs to the UAE are a case in point."

Related: Chinese arms industry ranks second behind U.S., report says, via The Wall Street Journal.

And: 'Possible' UAE F-35 deal can be inked before Trump administration ends, say top arms officials, via Defense News.

HILL HEARINGS: We're also tracking a trio of congressional hearings this week:

On Tuesday, the Senate Commerce Committee's security panel will convene a hearing on the Coast Guard's role in the Arctic with Vice Commandant Adm. Charles Ray at 2:30 p.m.

On Wednesday, the House Foreign Affairs Committee will hear testimony from Joel Rayburn, deputy assistant secretary of state for Levant affairs and special envoy for Syria, at 10 a.m.

And the House Armed Services Committee's personnel subcommittee will hear testimony on the final report of the Fort Hood Independent Review Committee that examined the command climate and culture at the Texas Army base at 1 p.m.

 

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Happening This Week

'EXCITING ANNOUNCEMENTS': The Air Force and Space Force host a weeklong networking event beginning today to establish new partnerships with industry on new technologies.

The virtual sessions will feature presentations from Air Force Secretary Barbara Barrett and Acquisition Chief Will Roper, Vice Chief of Staff Gen. David Allvin, Chief of Space Operations Gen. John Raymond, and Mike Brown, director of the Defense Innovation Unit.

The event will "conclude with exciting announcements on December 11th," according to the organizers.

Register for the full rundown.

THE NUCLEAR AGENDA: Several online events grappling with what the new year and a new administration mean for nuclear security are being held this week:

Today, Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy holds a discussion with former Sen. Sam Nunn and former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz titled "Reducing Global Security Risks: The Agenda for 2021 and Beyond," at 11 a.m.

On Tuesday, the Center for Strategic and International Studies holds a webcast on "Nuclear Modernization and Arms Control in 2021" featuring Rep. Adam Smith, chair of the House Armed Services Committee, at 12 p.m.

Pentagon

'IT'S UNPRECEDENTED': The Trump administration's Pentagon purge continued on Friday with the firing of nine members of the Defense Business Board and installation of presidential loyalists such as political activists Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie, POLITICO's Lara Seligman, Daniel Lippman and Jacqueline Feldscher report.

Michael Bayer, who served as the board chair, bemoaned the politicization of yet another nonpartisan organization. "This kind of a move really will weigh heavily on people in the future and their willingness to serve on these outside advisory boards if they're going to be subjected to political loyalty tests," he said. "It's unprecedented. I'm just saddened."

The White House liaison also prohibited the publication of the advisory board's "Transition Recommendations" for the incoming administration, a former board member said.

The report, they explained, contains "insights on the key management challenges the new team will face and the Board's advice on what to do about them."

MILLER IN ASIA: Acting Defense Secretary Chris Miller left Saturday for a swing through Indonesia, the Philippines and the headquarters of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Honolulu. He is scheduled to return to Washington on Thursday.

War Report

SOMALIA EXIT STRATEGY: "President Donald Trump has ordered the withdrawal of the majority of U.S. troops from Somalia by early next year, the Pentagon announced Friday," O'Brien reports.

The Pentagon said the move does not reflect a "withdrawing or disengaging from Africa."

An estimated 700 U.S. troops are stationed in Somalia to assist the government in its fight against Al-Shabab, a terrorist group with links to al Qaeda.

FIRST LOOK — 'More civilians than in any other year'': The cost of peace is growing steeper for civilians in Afghanistan, according to a new study to be published today by the Cost of War Project at Brown University.

The study by co-director Neta Crawford found that new rules of engagement ushered in by the Trump administration three years ago coincided with a 95 percent increase in civilians killed by U.S and allied airstrikes compared to the previous decade.

"In 2017 the Pentagon relaxed its rules of engagement for airstrikes and escalated the air war in Afghanistan," the report says. "The aim was to gain leverage at the bargaining table. From 2017 through 2019, civilian deaths due to U.S. and allied forces' airstrikes in Afghanistan dramatically increased. In 2019 airstrikes killed 700 civilians — more civilians than in any other year since the beginning of the war in 2001 and 2002."

It also found that amid peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban, the Afghan Air Force has stepped up its own airstrikes. "As a consequence, the AAF is harming more Afghan civilians than at any time in its history."

 

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Transition 2020

'PROGRESSIVE POLICY PRACTITIONERS': The pressure from the left for President-elect Joe Biden to recruit more progressive national security experts will enter a new phase this week when outside groups put forward a list of some 200 candidates.

"Progressive organizations are serious about supporting the incoming administration in living up to the commitments made during the campaign," Alex McCoy, political director at the veterans-led group Common Defense , told Morning D. That means to "help connect the transition team with talent and expertise, in order to staff the Department of Defense, Department of State, USAID, Intelligence Community, and National Security Council with policy practitioners who will serve the best interests of the American people, rather than corporations and special interests."

Yasmine Taeb, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, added: "In order for progressives to be able to hold the Biden administration accountable, not only do we need to have an organized and coordinated outside strategy, but need to also advance progressives in key foreign policy positions in the administration."

Stay tuned for the book of names, which Taeb says will be made public after it is shared with the transition team this week.

'LLOYD AUSTIN AND JEH JOHNSON': Meanwhile, Congressional Black Caucus Chair Karen Bass on Sunday told CNN that members would like to see Biden choose a Black nominee for Pentagon chief, specifically either Jeh Johnson, a former Homeland Security secretary, or Lloyd Austin, a retired Army general,

But the caucus is not unanimous in its view. Reps. Anthony Brown, a member of the Armed Services Committee, and Marc Veasey wrote to Biden last week urging him to select Michèle Flournoy.

Meanwhile, Flournoy, long considered the leading contender, also got another thumbs up on Friday from seven Democratic women in the House. Reps. Jackie Speier, Lois Frankel, Julia Brownley, Veronica Escobar, Anna Eshoo, Lizzie Fletcher and Ann Kuster told Biden they believe she would be a highly qualified and historic pick.

But the opposition to Flournoy is still vocal even if it's on the extreme left: Antiwar group CODEPINK will hold a webinar tonight on why some insist she is the wrong choice, citing her past support for U.S. military interventions in the Middle East and arms sales to Saudi Arabia.

Related: America's diplomats should look like America, by Karen Bass, via Foreign Policy.

And: Biden's dilemma: military or civilian control of the Department of Defense? via Newsweek.

BACK IN BUSINESS: As for the Pentagon transition process itself, it sounds like discussions between the Trump and Biden teams are back on track after a hiccup in the incoming administration's request for access to defense intelligence agencies, Seligman reports.

"The DoD and its transition leadership are fully cooperating with the Biden transition team, placing national security and the protection of the American people at the forefront of any and all discussions," Miller said in a statement on Saturday.

Related: Unnamed Pentagon officials blast use of anonymous sources, via Task & Purpose.

Speed Read

'It's an unusual setup': Kerry's climate job scrambles Biden's org chart: POLITICO

Appeals court rules for Trump taking military money for wall: The Associated Press

Backing Trump, some ex-military officers spread conspiracies, urge martial law: NPR

Eight former troops, contractors seeking Trump pardons: Military.com

Fort Bragg soldier killed on Outer Banks was decapitated: The News & Observer

U.S. Navy official says 'uneasy deterrence' reached with Iran: The Associated Press

Iran says scientist was killed using satellite-controlled gun: CNN

Trump wish to end the 'endless wars' denies reality: Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Military's use of social media accounts widens: Jane's

Will artificial intelligence ever live up to its hype? Scientific American

Inside Operation Gideon, a Coup Gone Very Wrong: Rolling Stone

Photographing Custer: The National Review


 

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JOIN TUESDAY TO POWER FORWARD WITH WOMEN RULE: Americans have endured multiple crises in 2020, from the pandemic to the economic recession, racial injustices, and a highly contentious presidential election. Women have often led the way in helping the country navigate these crises and will continue to in the new year. Join us for the conclusion of "Powering Forward," a series of virtual conversations that has brought the Women Rule community together during a year that changed how women live, work, and lead. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
 

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