REALITY CHECK — The fiscal update landed Monday, at long last, which means it's time for a fresh round of everybody's favorite: election speculation! The Liberals will introduce a bill to implement parts of the economic statement as early as today, which will lead to a confidence vote that could bring down the government. There are a few things to remember here, though. One is that it's December, Covid-19 cases are spiking across the country, and the Liberals are still leading in the polls. The opposition was gun-shy in October, the last time an election seemed like a possibility, and if they didn't go for it then, it's unclear why they would now. Another is that the entirety of the fall economic statement will not be up for a vote. The Liberals only need to pass legislation to enact certain measures — for example, their C$2.4-billion top-up to the Canada Child Benefit, which O'Toole took credit for on Monday. The opposition parties haven't yet said whether they'll vote against the bill, but they've generally supported emergency financial aid during the pandemic. Also: Trudeau said Tuesday he's "reasonably confident" no party wants an election right now, and added that all parties should be able to find things they support in the bill. A Liberal source tells Corridors the bill should pass after Parliament resumes in late January, and there's "no drama expected." If not now, when? The bigger question is how soon the Liberals might find a more opportune moment to head to the polls. Reuters on Tuesday reported that insiders say an election is likely coming in 2021, when Freeland's promised C$70 billion to C$100 billion in stimulus spending will start to roll out and Covid-19 vaccines will — theoretically — become widely available. Writing for the Globe and Mail, Campbell Clark argues that Freeland's stimulus plan will form the backbone of the Liberals' next election bid. In the Toronto Star, Heather Scoffield says the economic statement does "double-duty as an election platform." Ditto from Don Martin over at CTV News. Heads up: The National Post reported Tuesday evening that Paul Rochon, deputy minister of Finance Canada, sent out a resignation letter to staff just one day after the fiscal update was released. VACCINE POLITICS — If you'd accidentally happened upon O'Toole's speech in the House of Commons on Monday, you'd have been hard-pressed to guess he was responding to a fall economic statement. O'Toole took a few requisite jabs at the size of the deficit, but spent most of his time attacking the Liberals' pandemic response, especially the vaccine rollout, claiming Canada is "near the back of the line." The Conservatives clearly see more opportunity in the Liberals' shaky messaging on vaccine distribution than in government accounting. As John Ibbitson recently wrote for the Globe and Mail, "there'll be hell to pay" if Canadians have to wait months longer for immunizations than our neighbors to the south. The Liberals have been working hard to build confidence in their vaccine deployment plans since Trudeau admitted last week that Canada may have to wait longer than some other countries. And they've been given a boost in recent days by Moderna officials saying Canada will actually be among the first to receive doses once its vaccine is approved. Trudeau is suggesting most Canadians could be immunized by September, while a new poll finds voters may not be as worried about timing as the Conservatives might have hoped. On Tuesday, Procurement Minister Anita Anand pushed back against what she called "misinformation," insisting vaccines will arrive in the first quarter of 2021, pending approval from Health Canada. The regulator is currently evaluating four vaccine candidates from Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and, as of this week, Johnson & Johnson. "I am negotiating with our vaccine suppliers every day for earlier delivery dates," Anand said during a press conference. Hot off the press: The U.K. on Wednesday approved the Pfizer vaccine for emergency use, becoming the first Western nation to approve a Covid-19 vaccine, and may begin inoculating its citizens next week. Related: Remember near the end of Contagion when they decide to use a birthday-based lottery to roll out their vaccine? That may turn out to be the least plausible part of that movie, aside from the part where the CDC, you know, functions. Canada's first vaccines are expected to go to high-priority groups like the elderly, health-care workers and Indigenous communities. On Tuesday, chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam said the easiest way to roll out doses after that is by age group, since older people are more likely to get seriously ill. In the meantime: Several cabinet ministers will have to explain to the House of Commons industry committee what happened to Canada's plan to manufacture vaccines domestically, thanks to a Conservative motion passed on Tuesday. The Tories have also served notice of an opposition day motion calling on the government to provide details of its vaccine plans in the House of Commons by Dec. 16. UNHAPPY ANNIVERSARY — This week marks two years since the arrest of Huawei senior executive Meng Wanzhou, which triggered a rapid deterioration of Canada-China relations. The sore spots are numerous, from China's detention of two Canadians following Meng's arrest to Canada's criticism of Beijing's national security law for Hong Kong. And then, of course, there's Canada's looming decision about whether to allow Huawei technology in this country's 5G networks. As POLITICO reports this morning, the incoming Biden administration may deepen the U.S. government's resolve to get western democracies like Canada to ban the Chinese telecom giant's equipment. Canada has yet to announce its decision on Huawei, but a senior government official tells POLITICO's Andy Blatchford it's coming "soon." China policy: Conservative MP Garnett Genuis, co-chair of Parliament's special committee on Canada-China relations, says the Liberal government needs a China policy. "There's, I think, a big lack of clarity now in terms of what they actually want, what their plans are and that's creating a lot of problems," Genuis told Andy in an interview Tuesday. "I think the government has been very, very naive for a long time about what is going on. And the government has tried to sound a little bit tougher lately, but we haven't actually seen any new policy." Meanwhile, the Globe and Mail reported Tuesday that Canada-China trade has actually increased during the pandemic compared to last year, despite the frosty relations. PLEASE, SIR, WE WANT SOME MORE — Trudeau is slated to meet with the provincial and territorial premiers Dec. 10 to discuss federal funding for health care, but is remaining non-committal about whether he'll meet their demand for increased health transfers. The premiers say Ottawa is currently covering only about 22 percent of total health care costs, and are demanding an increase to 35 percent. But Monday's fiscal update was silent on the matter, which Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet seized on as a major point of contention. Trudeau said Tuesday he's "look[ing] forward" to next week's discussion. EXPECTED TODAY — CBC News is reporting the Liberals will admit today they won't meet their target to lift all drinking-water advisories in First Nations by March 2021, but are promising another C$1.5 billion to get the job done. Meanwhile, the government is planning to introduce its bill to implement the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples as early as Thursday. | 
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