| | | | | |  | | By David Wertime | This week's slate of China news offers a ready, if grim theme: the arrest or detention of dissidents in China. All three cases, it happens, involve journalists of a sort — one a researcher, one a former reporter, and one a publisher. For the last several years, China's diminishing civil society and authorities' increasing truculence have been contextualized, although by no means justified, as part of a rising cycle of hostilities and mutual recrimination with the United States under President Donald Trump. But while President-elect Joe Biden won't reboot the bilateral relationship, his deputies, many of them quiet technocrats, will certainly change the way they talk about it. Their approach will invite a sharp, favorable contrast with Chinese "wolf warriors," whose diplomatic rhetoric pleases ruler Xi Jinping and elevates some careers, but does not advance China's greater interests or represent the decency and thoughtfulness of which many of its people are eminently capable. None of this may matter to nationalists convinced China's besting of the U.S. is foreordained. To others, it may look like Beijing just missed its soft power moment. | | | | NEW EPISODES OF THE GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST: Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, and these issues have exploded over the past year amid a global pandemic. This podcast helps us identify and understand the impediments to smart policymaking. Subscribe for Season Two, available now. | | | | | TRANSLATING WASHINGTON Don't expect Disney chair Bob Iger to be the next ambassador to China. On Wednesday, the Hollywood Reporter (and not, say, DC insider publications like The Washington Post or POLITICO) cited unnamed sources in reporting the Walt Disney Company chairman is "at the top" of Biden's wish list for an ambassadorship in Beijing or London. The Biden camp declined to comment to your host. But merits aside, this writer cannot imagine the new administration weathering the political costs the appointment would incur, from the right or the left, particularly given Disney's much-reviled decision to film a portion of its rebooted Mulan movie in Xinjiang — and then to thank the authorities for letting them. Anyway, Iger would probably enjoy being ambassador to the U.K. quite a bit more; it's a plum role, and less hemmed in by the censorship and travel restrictions that frustrate the typical U.S. ambassador to China, one that would feel like a status reduction to an exec already feted in the country. Bloomberg op-ed: Biden's pick for trade chief "radical." Moving on to someone who will actually serve in a crucial China-related role: Congressional staffer Katherine Tai's selection as the next U.S. trade representative is lauded but unusual. "USTRs of the past have had close political or personal connections to the presidents they served," Shawn Donnan wrote on Monday. "Tai is starting without any that are apparent. She also is making an unusually large leap from the staff ranks in Congress to be lead trade negotiator for the world's largest economy." It's one reason Donnan writes that "the consensus in Washington is that trade policy is not going to be a high priority for the Biden administration." — But Tai's skills look like a match for Biden's preferred approach. Tai is "an institutionalist and an excellent choice to lead the agency," says McLarty Associates' James Green, a former trade official who previously overlapped with Tai at USTR and cites her experience working with U.S. allies and Congress as a strong point. — Reality check: Tai's Mandarin skills, cited in most recent stories about her, won't matter. "I honestly do not recall being in a meeting and hearing her speak Chinese, although I think operating at the Cabinet level, her language abilities and ethnicity won't really make much difference in Beijing," Green says. "For some U.S. officials, and here I am thinking of former Ambassador Gary Locke, many Chinese elites and media have an unrealistic expectation of loyalty to China from these American officials." Beware unintended side effects of the new U.S. rules on CCP members entering the country. A White House rule announced earlier this month limiting Chinese Communist Party members to short, single-entry visas to the U.S. won't have much practical impact with travel all but shut down, but as both countries' populations get vaccinated and travel resumes, its practical implications could be problematic. Making it harder for CCP members to enter "would force U.S. businesspeople, academics and officials to go to China more often to meet with their counterparts, potentially exposing them to even more Chinese intelligence and influence efforts," Victor Shih, political economy professor at U.C. San Diego, tells China Watcher. "Besides, I am sure the Chinese government would provide the real spies with covers that preclude Party membership, so a membership litmus test really doesn't tell you much." — Better idea: Allow CCP members to renounce their Party. "Given that a good number of the smartest and most educated people from China had been inducted into the party early on, the U.S. should provide a path for citizenship even for party members," Shih says. "Beyond signing a legally binding document prohibiting them from participating in party activities, they also can fill out a detailed questionnaire on how they joined the party. This would allow the U.S. to continue to naturalize the best and brightest from China without the cat and mouse game of people lying about their party membership." | | | | STAY UP TO SPEED ON THE PEOPLE AND POLITICS DRIVING GLOBAL HEALTH: The global pandemic has revealed just how critical it is to keep up with the politics, policy and people driving global health. Will America reclaim its leadership on the worldwide health stage as the Biden administration assumes power in 2021? What will the global distribution of a Covid-19 vaccine look like? Which counties and people will be prioritized? Our Global Pulse newsletter connects leaders, policymakers and advocates to the politics impacting our global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today. | | | | | WHAT'S NEXT FOR HONG KONG Hong Kong's pro-democracy media tycoon has been charged under the city's feared National Security Law. Apple Daily publisher Jimmy Lai, whose newspaper has become synonymous with what's left of democratic resistance to Beijing's incursions, was formally charged on Friday for "colluding" with foreign forces. On Saturday, he was denied bail. The Beijing-authored security law has rapidly squelched open dissent in the city, belying assurances the law would impact only a small portion of people. Incoming National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan indicated the Biden administration would not let the issue of Hong Kong autonomy drop, tweeting on Dec. 8 that he was "deeply concerned by the continuing arrests and imprisonment" of Hong Kong democracy activists. — "The mass arrests and heavy jail terms have just barely begun," and "there is not much the rest of the world can do to change the general direction of the crackdown," Victoria Tin-Bor Hui , a professor of political science at the University of Notre Dame, tells China Watcher. "What the U.S. can do is to help soften the blows for the most affected and force those in authority positions to think twice. Pass the Hong Kong People's Freedom and Choice Act to offer asylum and refugee status to activists. Facilitate immigration by ordinary Hong Kongers who want to breathe the air of freedom." — U.S. options are limited. Human Rights in China's Sharon Hom tells China Watcher that "the arrests, together with increasing restrictions on the media, are aimed at crushing the spirit of Hong Kong people and ensuring 'order, i.e. authoritarian control." Hom says that "strong public international condemnation and sanctions also need to be coupled with a longer-term strategy, one that is anchored to the key normative and strategic tools of the international human rights system." | | Hot from the China Watchersphere | | China once sent a U.K. journalist to prison. Now he helps get others out. On Sunday, CNN's James Griffiths published a gripping account of Peter Humphrey, a former journalist and former prisoner in China. Humphrey spent decades as a correspondent, much of that time in China, before founding an investigative firm with his wife. One of their investigations involving GlaxoSmithKline's massive 2013 Chinese bribery scandal landed Humphrey in detention and then prison for a total of nearly two years for obtaining information using "illegal means." Humphrey eventually started interviewing his fellow (Chinese) prisoners, and learned very few "really deserved the sentences they were getting." Humphrey ultimately made what he said was a forced confession on China's state broadcaster CCTV. He now advises other foreigners in conflict with the Chinese judicial system, which he describes as "inhumane." — Learn vocab: "Exit ban." Rather than imprisonment, it's the prospect of getting stuck in China that's keeping foreign executives (and their lawyers) up at night. "There is concern among foreign businesspeople that the use of exit bans is increasing," says John Kamm , founder and chairman of the human rights group Dui Hua and himself a former exec. "One of the problems with exit bans — aside from their arbitrariness and questions as to their legality — is the fact that one often doesn't know whether an exit ban is in place until one arrives at the immigration counter on the way out of China," Kamm tells China Watcher. "Many exit bans appear to have been levied due to business disputes, the resolution of which can drag on for years." University of Science and Technology in China (far) surpasses Google in quantum computing power. According to a Monday report in Newsweek, a USTC team led by Pan Jianwei announced "its quantum computer succeeded in performing a calculation 100 trillion times faster than a conventional computer could — surpassing Google's achievement," announced in October 2019 , "by a factor of 10 billion." Both computers appear to have achieved "quantum supremacy," in which quantum computing exceeds the power of conventional computing, with major implications for the future of cryptography and, therefore, international cyber-espionage. — Stop saying "quantum supremacy" and start saying "quantum advantage," advises Cornell University particle physicist Yangyang Cheng, picking up on a suggestion by over a dozen signatories to a December 2019 letter in Nature. The original "loaded term," in either English or Chinese, bakes in the concept of great power competition and is "a failure of moral imagination," Cheng tells China Watcher, particularly because "from what I understand, what the Google and USTC teams have achieved is a proof of concept, and the two experiments used different techniques: Science still has a long way to go before a quantum computer can be used to solve any real-world problems." Cheng says it would be more useful to "reject the nationalistic, militaristic framing, and to come up with and abide by standards of equity and safety in terms of development, access and application." "I think China has gained the psychological edge." On Monday, the New York Times' Chris Buckley wrote of a growing swagger among China's intellectuals and its youth convinced that China's system isn't just as good as America's, it's better. He quotes futurist artist Fan Wennan : "America isn't that heavenly kingdom depicted since decades ago," said Mr. Fan, who is in his early twenties. "There's nothing special about it." Even if you strongly disagree, Fan's vivid depictions of a China-dominated future from 2098 are worth a look. — Reality check: It's not just fire-breathing nationalists talking U.S. decline. University of Montreal professor David Ownby translates a November 2020 discussion in Shanghai among liberal intellectuals saying the same thing. "Buckley's nationalists were, of course, crowing about U.S. decline, while the presumably more liberal Shanghai scholars were not, but all seem to be more or less on the same page when it comes to how they view what is happening in the United States," Ownby writes. Oxford doctoral candidate Xu Xibai told the assembled audience, "I think the phenomenon of democratic decay does exist, but it doesn't mean that the United States is about to collapse. Because political decline can be an extremely long process." | | | A Chinese "researcher" for Bloomberg is in detention. The outlet reports that at some point last week, Chinese authorities detained Haze Fan (whose first name is pronounced like the English word "haze"), a Chinese employee in the news service's Beijing bureau, on suspicion of endangering national security. Fan's disappearance into the maw of China's harsh, opaque legal system has sent shock waves through the U.S. press. Bloomberg has famously censored what it publishes in China, particularly on Bloomberg terminals, to placate Beijing; if its employees aren't safe, whose are? In particular, the news has rattled Chinese reporting staff at international news outlets in China, all of whom are categorized as news assistants or researchers to comply with Chinese law. — Chinese journos are wondering at a potentially significant bureaucratic change. Several Chinese journalists told POLITICO's Shen Lu earlier this month that the Beijing Service Bureau for Diplomatic Missions, an agency of China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese staff's employer on paper, had updated their credentials, adding a new classification, "Chinese Secretary," to their work permits. The agency also asked everyone to sign a pledge, when they claim their new credentials, that promises they will comply with regulations that dictate they can only engage in "auxiliary work" as Chinese citizens employed at foreign news bureaus. A Chinese pop star takes on violence against women. Mainstream pop singer Tan Weiwei recently released a powerful, defiant new song, "Alias," which takes on the issue of violence against women in stark terms. "Flush us down the drain/From wedding bed to riverbed," goes one refrain. In fact, every song in Tan's new album, 3811, tells the story of an individual woman. The song made huge waves on Chinese social media after its release, with many lauding Tan's bravery for taking on such a sensitive topic. Gender issues have become one of the most discussed topics on China's social media; just two weeks ago, the landmark court hearing of a high-profile #MeToo case garnered widespread attention online and off. Meryl Streep wows Chinese fans by reciting a Tang dynasty poem in (pretty good) Mandarin. The megastar appeared to impress host Stephen Colbert with her Chinese on The Late Show earlier this month — "we so rarely get Mandarin poetry on late night these days," he deadpanned. Her performance and pronunciation also amazed her large following in China, who call her "Meiyi," meaning Aunt Mei or Aunt Meryl. Fans were particularly impressed at her saying correctly a character that native speakers often flub. In cyberspace, the knives are out for Jack Ma. Following Ma's clashes with regulators and the collapse of Ant Financial's IPO, China has entered a new chapter in what looks like a one-sided rivalry between two of the most powerful men in China — President Xi and Ma, an entrepreneur with rockstar-like status and the panopticon-like insight into Chinese people's behavior afforded by Alibaba, the company he founded. Ma's spectacular fall from Beijing's favor is becoming evident in the way China's once-fawning netizens have begun to treat him, Shen Lu reports. On video-cum-comment site Bilibili, thousands of users recently condemned Ma as an evil capitalist. A video explainer condemning Ant Financial and accusing Ma of taking advantage of regular users has received 6.6 million clicks and 26,000 comments. The swift shift in his appellations doesn't mean there's a government directive aimed at slandering Ma, but it does mean negative comments about him are now tolerated, and perhaps tacitly encouraged. Programming note: China Watcher will not publish Thursday of next week. We will be back in your inbox on Thursday, December 31. Thanks to: Editor Emily Cadei, Luiza Ch. Savage, Shen Lu, Matt Kaminski. Do you have tips? Chinese-language stories we might have missed? Stories we should follow and haven't? (Reasoned) complaints? Email davidwertime at politico dot com.
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