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The best broker in Asia www.instaforex.com Daily analysts mail subscription EUR/USD: plan for the European session on December 14. COT reports. Coronavirus vaccine news keeps euro at current levels. Bulls aim to surpass 1.2164 2020-12-14 To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need: Last Friday no signals were formed for the euro to enter the market. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see that the euro surpassed 1.2145, but I did not wait for the reverse test of this level from the bottom up to produce a convenient entry point to the market. As a result, the signal was missed. Good data on consumer sentiment in the US did not provide much support for the euro, as the focus shifted to news on the coronavirus vaccine. The approval of its distribution is good news for euro buyers who believe in strengthening the EUR/USD pair. But, before talking about the pair's further prospects, let's see what happened in the futures market and how the Commitment of Traders (COT) positions changed. Changes were very significant, and they are all in the direction of euro buyers. Many market participants continue to bet on the strengthening of the euro, even at current annual highs. Last week's news about the expansion of the asset repurchase program did not affect the quotes in any way, and the likelihood of a later introduction of strict quarantine measures in the United States forces traders to bypass the US dollar. The COT report for December 8 recorded an increase in long positions and a reduction in short positions. Buyers of risky assets believe in sustaining the bull market and the euro's growth after surpassing the psychological mark in the area of the 20th figure. Thus, long non-commercial positions rose from 207,302 to 222,521, while short non-commercial positions fell from 67,407 to 66,092. The total non-commercial net position rose from 139,894 to 156,429 a week earlier. It is worth paying attention to the growth of the delta, observed for the third consecutive week, which completely negates the bearish trend observed at the beginning of this fall. We can only speak of a larger recovery after European leaders negotiate a new trade agreement with Britain. Neither the EU summit nor the decision of the European Central Bank managed to exert pressure on the euro, so it is best to bet that the EUR/USD pair will continue to strengthen by the end of the year. Now for the technical picture of the pair. Buyers need to take control of resistance at 1.2164, as only this can lead to another upward wave and will continue to produce a bull market. Being able to overcome and settle above 1.2164 and test it from top to bottom produces a good signal to buy EUR/USD in hopes of renewing the next high in the 1.2211 area, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the high of 1.2255, which buyers will be aiming for this week. Since we will not receive important fundamental statistics on the eurozone economy today, it will hardly be possible to count on surpassing 1.2255. However, if this happens, I recommend building up long positions to the highs of 1.2339 and 1.2417. In case the euro falls in the first half of the day and buyers are unable to go above 1.2164, it is best not to rush with long positions, but to wait until a false breakout forms in the support area of 1.2110. I recommend buying EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from a low of 1.2060, counting on a correction by 20-25 points within the day. To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need: Sellers will actively defend resistance at 1.2164, just above which the annual highs pass. Forming a false breakout there will lead to a new downward correction, which will be aimed at breaking the 1.2110 low. Being able to settle below this range will open a direct road to the 1.2060 area, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the 1.1986 area, a test of which will mean a reversal of the current upward trend. If the bulls find strength following the speeches of the ECB representatives and the data on German prices, and they also manage to surpass the resistance of 1.2164, I recommend not to rush to sell. The optimal scenario would be a test of the 1.2211 high, where a false breakout will be a signal to sell the euro. I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from the 1.2255 level, counting on the pair's correction down by 15-20 points. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates that the pair is hanging in a horizontal channel. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands Volatility is quite low, so I would recommend not paying attention to the indicators in the morning. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 14, 2020 2020-12-14 EUR/JPY failed to break above the minor resistance at 126.78. It made a second dip to support at 125.75. This does not really change anything other than delay the expected rally higher to 127.02 and 129.06 as the next upside targets. We expect minor support at 125.95 to be able to protect the downside for the rally above 126.78 and higher. R3: 127.75 R2: 127.30 R1: 126.78 Pivot: 126.30 S1: 125.95 S2: 125.75 S3: 125.50 Trading recommendation: Our stop at 125.80 was hit for a nice profit of 237 pips. We will re-but EUR here at 126.25 and place our stop at 125.70. Indicator analysis. Daily review on the EUR/USD currency pair for December 14, 2020 2020-12-14 Last Friday, the pair pushed off from the upper fractal of 1.2158 (daily candlestick from 10.12.2020) and went down, closing above the pullback level of 14.6% - 1.2093 (red dotted line). Today, the price may continue to move up. According to the economic calendar, news is not expected on Monday. Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market may continue to move up from the level of 1.2111 (closing of last Friday's daily candlestick), with the upper target of 1.2177 - the resistance level (blue bold line). If this level is tested, we can expect the continuation of the upper work with the target of 1.2274 - the pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). Figure 1 (Daily Chart). Comprehensive analysis: Indicator analysis - up Fibonacci levels - up Volumes - up Candlestick analysis - up Trend analysis - up Bollinger bands - up Weekly chart - up General conclusion: Today, the price may continue to move up with the target of 1.2177 - the resistance level (blue bold line). If this level is tested, we can expect the continuation of the upper work with the target of 1.2274 - the pullback level of 85.4% (yellow dotted line). Alternative scenario: from the level of 1.2121 (closing of last Friday daily candlestick), the pair may move downward to reach the pullback level of 14.6% - 1.2093 (red dotted line). If this level is tested, we can expect the continuation of the upper work with the target of 1.2177 - the resistance level (blue bold line). GBP/USD: plan for the European session on December 14. COT reports. Brexit talks to proceed. Bulls brace to surpass 1.3340 again 2020-12-14 To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: A lot of profitable signals to enter the market appeared last Friday. Let's take a look at the most interesting ones. If you look at the 5-minute chart, you will see how the bears are trying to break through support at 1.3290 even in the first half of the day, and then it was tested from the bottom up, which produces an excellent signal to enter the market. A breakout and being able to settle below the 1.3246 level with a similar entry point in short positions leads to sustaining the bearish trend and will return the pair to a low of 1.3198. Retesting this area produced a long entry, which turned out to be unprofitable. A breakout and the pair being able to settle below 1.3198, similar to the morning sales, resulted in the pound being sold by another 50 points in the afternoon. Before examining the technical picture of the pound, let's take a look at what happened in the futures market last week. Obviously serious changes in the direction of buyers clearly indicate that traders believe that the Brexit trade deal will be signed at the very last moment, even despite the fact that all the real terms for negotiations have long passed. The expectation that the leaders will still be able to make concessions and find the necessary common ground on the key issue of fisheries leaves hope for the pound's succeeding growth. The Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for December 8 notes significant interest in the British pound. Long non-commercial positions rose from 37,087 to 39,344. At the same time, short non-commercial positions decreased from 44,986 to 33,634. As a result, the non-commercial net position became positive and jumped to 5,710 against a negative value of -7,899 a week earlier. All this suggests that traders are ready to bet on the pound's succeeding growth at the beginning of 2021 and on the buyers' advantage in the current situation even when there is no trade deal at the moment, and take note that there is just around two weeks left until the end of the year. As for the technical picture, despite the high volatility last Friday and the large Asian gap earlier this week, the situation has not changed much. The buyers' task is to maintain control over the 1.3290 level. Forming a false breakout there in the first half of the day will be an excellent signal to open long positions, in hopes for the pound to recover in the short term. The main goal is to form a breakout and have the pair surpass the resistance of 1.3340, testing it from top to bottom, produces an additional entry point to long positions in hopes to reach a high of 1.3388, where I recommend taking profits. The next targets will still be resistances 1.3437 and 1.3489, but they will only be available when we do not receive good news on the Brexit deal. In case bulls are not active in the 1.3290 support area, it is best not to rush into long deals, but to wait for the 1.3246 low to be updated. However, I recommend opening long positions from this level only after a false breakout. A larger support level is seen in the 1.3193 area, where you can buy GBP/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on a correction of 20-30 points. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The absence of important fundamental statistics on the UK and the Bank of England's wait-and-see attitude regarding monetary policy may positively affect the pound today. Therefore, forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3340 will exert pressure on the pair and lead to a test of support at 1.3290, where the moving averages pass, which play on the side of those who buy the pound. Only a real breakthrough of this level with a test from the bottom up, similar to last Friday's short deal that I analyzed above, can produce a good signal to sell the pound in hopes of pulling it down to a low of 1.3246, on which the bear market will depend. Bad news on the trade deal will sharply pull down GBP/USD towards the 1.3193 and 1.3114 lows. If the bulls manage to regain the 1.3340 level, then it is better not to rush with short positions. The optimal scenario for selling the pound would be failure to surpass 1.3388. I recommend opening short positions immediately on a rebound from a high of 1.3437, counting on a downward correction of 25-30 points within the day. Let me remind you that the parties agreed to continue negotiations this week, which will further complicate the issue of ratifying the deal if it is reached at the last moment. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates an attempt by the bulls to take over the market. Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart. Bollinger Bands A breakout of the upper border of the indicator in the 1.3365 area will lead to a new wave of growth for the pound. In case the pair falls, support will be provided by the average border of the indicator in the 1.3246 area. Description of indicators Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders. Technical Analysis of EUR/USD for December 14, 2020 2020-12-14 Technical Market Outlook: The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the short-term trend line support around the level of 1.2060, so the trend line is still being recognized by the market participants and still provides the support. The bulls are still trying to break higher above the level of 1.2177, the previous swing high. The momentum is now strong and positive, so if the technical resistance located at the level of 1.2154 and 1.2163 is broken, EUR could rally higher towards the level of 1.2411. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.2281 WR2 - 1.2233 WR1 - 1.2171 Weekly Pivot - 1.2118 WS1 - 1.2069 WS2 - 1.2005 WS3 - 1.1960 Trading Recommendations: Since the middle of March 2020 the main trend is on EUR/USD pair has been up. This means any local corrections should be used to buy the dips until the key technical support is broken. The key long-term technical support is seen at the level of 1.1609. The key long-term technical resistance is seen at the level of 1.2555. GBP/USD: pound is in between growth and decline, so reaching a Brexit compromise is necessary until the end 2020-12-14 The pound is in an uncertainty state again amid quite decisive actions of European leaders, who are determined to continue Brexit negotiations. Experts emphasize that they intend to make progress in finding mutually beneficial trading conditions and close this issue. The issues of finding a compromise for the European Union and the UK in view of the last exit from the European bloc have been extending for a long time. The parties cannot agree on a number of trade issues such as fisheries, labor laws, government support and environmental standards. Such disagreements are increasing pressure on the pound as well as destroying the UK economy, weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, London and Brussels' negotiations resemble a time bomb that could blow up any time. The discussions on the provisions of the trade agreement, which will take effect after Brexit, are not producing any results. Analysts say that most of the controversy is over the fisheries regime. The British authorities are fighting for sovereignty over the catch zones, and the European leaders want to reserve the right to fish in these areas. The deadline for signing a trade agreement is already pressing, which adds pressure to the situation. It can be recalled that the document must be ratified to become effective from January 2021, so the negotiators did not have time to find compromises. The current situation strongly affects the dynamics of the pound. Analysts are sure that internal economic problems, and Brexit issues are shaking up the British currency. At the same time, the high probability of the UK leaving the EU without a deal contributes to its further decline. It should be noted that the GBP/USD pair has reversed in the direction of the downward trend five times, moving around the level of 1.3500 over the past two and a half years. This morning, the indicated currency pair started at 1.3320, trying to move higher. Its efforts ended successfully: it managed to consolidate in the range of 1.3321-1.3322, although a decline is still very likely. In turn, the US dollar's current weakening across the entire market spectrum supports the pound. According to experts, this gives a good chance for GBP buyers who can make a profit even if the negotiations fail. However, Standard Bank experts have a different opinion. Last Friday, they recommended selling the pound, afraid of another stagnation in Brexit's negotiations or a negative decision. However, amid optimism about further successful discussions, the pound soared on Monday, inspiring markets. But currency strategists at IG Securities claim that this is just a temporary growth. They summarized that a deterioration of the situation will lead to another sell-off of the pound. Nevertheless, experts are confident that a partial deal with the ability to continue negotiations in 2021 can save the pound. Earlier, Boris Johnson, Britain's Prime Minister, expressed concerns about the unlikelihood of concluding a deal with the European Union. The fundamental differences over fishing rights continues to be the main problem. An additional burden was a number of economic issues which remain unsolved. Economists fear that the trillion-dollar trade turnover of both countries will fall under WTO rules if no-deal Brexit is implemented. Experts emphasized that this means a multiple increase in trade duties. As a result, companies on both sides of the channel will be at a loss, and mutual trade will become unprofitable. The increased pressure on the Euro, which is at risk of declining, will also worsen the situation. According to experts, the inability to compromise on the United Kingdom's withdrawal from the Euro bloc will lead to the restoration of full-scale customs and border controls. The implementation of such a scenario in the first months of this year will ensure a collapse at the borders and serious interruptions in the supply of goods. Analysts said that another negative consequence will be a 7.6% decline in UK GDP in 15 years. But in case of leaving the EU with a free trade agreement, the country's GDP will decrease by only 4.9%. Experts sum up that this document will minimize the negative impact on the British economy. Indicator analysis. Daily review for the GBP/USD currency pair on 14/12/2020 2020-12-14 Trend analysis (Fig. 1). Today, the market may continue to move up from the level of 1.3234 (the closing of Friday's daily candle) with the target of 1.3382 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). After testing this line, continue to work up with the target of 1.3442 which is a pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). Figure 1 (daily chart). Complex analysis: Indicator Analysis – up Fibonacci Levels – up Volumes – up Candle Analysis – up Trend Analysis – up Bollinger Bands – down Weekly Chart – up General conclusion: Today, the price may continue to move up with a target of 1.3382 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). After testing this line, continue to work up with the target of 1.3442 which is a pullback level of 76.4% (yellow dotted line). Alternative scenario: From the level of 1.3234 (the closing of Friday's daily candle), the price may continue to move up with the target of 1.3382 which is a pullback level of 61.8% (yellow dotted line). After testing this level, work downwards with the target 1.3307 – 21 average EMA (black thin line). Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for December 14, 2020 2020-12-14 GBP/JPY dipped to a low of 136.76. Slightly below the expected 137.17. It does not change the larger picture calling for more upside pressure through minor resistance at 140.33 and more importantly through resistance at 140.71 for a continuation higher to 142.72 and above. In the short-term, we see support at 138.27 and then at 138.05. R3: 140.33 R2: 139.63 R1: 139.17 Pivot: 138.88 S1: 138.43 S2: 138.27 S3: 138.05 Trading recommendation: We took profit on our short-position from 138.95 at 137.25 for a nice 170 pips profit. We will re-buy GBP at 138.10 or upon a break above 139.02. EUR/USD. Brexit, COVID-19 and vaccinations; US dollar weakens again 2020-12-14 The US dollar index opened a new trading week with a downward gap, which is relatively small, but very significant. If the index finished trading at 90.97 on Friday, then during the Asian session on Monday, it fluctuated around 90.70. In turn, the demand for the US dollar has declined due to several factors that reduced the overall interest in anti-risk assets, which include the US dollar. Yesterday, it became known that the Brexit negotiations, which were supposed to end on December 13, will be extended for several more days. We should recall that the parties have already postponed the deadline several times, while the transition period ends in just two and a half weeks. Last week's face-to-face meeting between Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen ended unsuccessfully: politicians agreed only to continue negotiations, which were supposed to end last Sunday. However, both parties did not come to a compromise during the allotted time. Moreover, the worst-case scenario was not implemented: the negotiators did not put the final point in the negotiation process, saying that they need to "go another mile". Traders of the GBP/USD pair reacted strongly to this news. It opened today's trading with a significant upward gap (150 points). And although the future prospects are still quite vague, the very fact of prolongation of the negotiation process has increased the demand for risky assets. In turn, the US dollar stopped working again. The coronavirus factor also failed to help the dollar. Even though the States recorded a daily growth in COVID-19 cases – 230 thousand last Friday, the previous anti-record (227 thousand) was recorded quite recently (early December). In total, almost 16 million infected and almost 300 thousand deaths from COVID-19 have been registered in the country since the beginning of the pandemic. In both indicators, the United States ranks first among other countries in the world. In Autumn, USD benefitted from this crisis, as the growth of panic increased the demand for a safe dollar. But the situation has changed now: the market has literally and figuratively got vaccinated. Earlier that season, the indicated currency steadily strengthened its position amid rapid growth in the number of COVID-19 cases in the US and around the world. After that, the press discussed the probability of repeated lockdowns and the possible economic consequences of such a step. The scenarios were "one worse than the other". Such prospects gave interest in defensive instruments, and above all in the dollar, which dominated almost all dollar pairs for several weeks. It is also noteworthy that the market is quite logical (and even somewhat cynical) about the spread of coronavirus. Traders are primarily concerned about the reaction of the authorities and the possible economic consequences of the pandemic, while the growth in the number of infected is only secondary. At the moment, traders are considering the "coronavirus factor" through the spectrum of mass vaccination, which starts today in the United States. Pfizer has already delivered the drug to 145 vaccination centers, another 425 centers will receive the vaccine tomorrow and 66 on Wednesday. By the end of the week, the vaccine will be available in all centers that now have equipment for storing it at very low temperatures. Similar news is coming from other countries, in particular from the UK, where the vaccination process has already begun. In other words, the "coronavirus factor" has lost its former influence. For example, the market actually ignored the coronavirus anti-record in the US last Friday, although such dynamics would have caused a surge in anti-risk sentiment even in the fall. This week's focus is on the Fed and the US Congress. Members of the US regulator will hold their last meeting this year (December 15-16), while congressmen will continue negotiations on approving a new package of assistance to the economy. The approval of this package will determine the continued provision of unemployment assistance to more than 11 million Americans, as the current program will end on December 31. In my opinion, Congressmen will still come to a compromise before this week ends, judging by the statements of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Ms. Nancy Pelosi. She previously advocated the adoption of the $ 2 trillion package, disagreeing with the smaller amounts offered by the Republicans. However, it hypothetically supported a smaller package over the weeked, in light of Joe Biden's victory in the presidential election. According to her, a new, larger package of assistance will be agreed after the inauguration of the newly elected president. Now, in case that American politicians still pass the long-suffering bill, the US dollar will be under pressure again, amid general optimism, growth in the stock market and Fed's dovish intentions/decisions to expand the existing stimulus programs. If we talk directly about the EUR/USD pair, we can still consider longs here. This is also indicated by the technical picture. First, the pair is above all the Ichimoku indicator lines (including the Kumo cloud) on the D1 and W1 time frames. Second, the price on the weekly chart is located on the upper line of the Bollinger Bands trend indicator (it is between the middle and upper lines of this indicator on the daily chart). The first upward target is the level of 1.2177 (the two and a half year high reached the week before last). The main target is still the psychological important level of 1.2200, which also coincides with the upper Bollinger Bands line on the daily chart. Technical Analysis of GBP/USD for December 14, 2020 2020-12-14 Technical Market Outlook: The GBP/USD pair has been seen trading below the level of 1.3476, which is the last local high before the sell-off to the level of 1.3134. The bulls are still trying to resume the up trend as the market opened with a gap up in the Monday morning. If the bulls will break through the trend line resistance seen around the level of 1.3420, then the next target is the local high at 1.3476. Please notice, the up trend at the daily time frame chart is still in progress. Weekly Pivot Points: WR3 - 1.3813 WR2 - 1.3637 WR1 - 1.3455 Weekly Pivot - 1.3298 WS1 - 1.3125 WS2 - 1.2955 WS3 - 1.2786 Trading Recommendations: The GBP/USD pair is in the down trend on the monthly time frame, but the recent bounce from the low at 1.1411 made in the middle of March 2020 looks very strong and might be a reversal swing. In order to confirm the trend change, the bulls have to break through the technical resistance seen at the level of 1.3518. All the local corrections should be used to enter a buy orders as long as the level of 1.2674 is not broken. Simplified wave analysis and forecast for GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and USD/CHF on December 14 2020-12-14 GBP/USD Analysis: Quotes of the British pound are confidently returning to the values of the beginning of 2018. The current upward trend continues. Its last section from October 10 is in the area of the intermediate zone of a potential reversal. The wave structure shows the completion of a hidden correction and the formation of a reversal model before a new break in the trend. Forecast: In the current day, we should expect the general upward mood of the movement to continue. In the first half of the day, a sideways mood is possible in the area of settlement support. Activation of the pair is likely towards the end of the day. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 1.3420/1.3450 Support: - 1.3310/1.3280 Recommendations: There are no conditions for selling the pound today. It is recommended to track the reversal signals in the area of the support zone to enter long positions. USD/JPY Analysis: In the short term, the direction of the Japanese yen is set by the downward wave from November 9. In the structure of the wave, an upward correction has been formed in the last two weeks. Its structure lacks the final section. The price is squeezed between the reversal zones of a large TF. Forecast: Today, the price is expected to move in a sideways plane between the nearest counter zones, mainly with an upward vector. By the end of the day, you can expect a change in the exchange rate and a decline to the original values. A breakout of the support zone is likely in the next few days. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 104.50/104.80 Support: - 103.90/103.60 Recommendations: Trading on the yen market today is possible within the intraday. When making purchases, you should reduce the size of the lot used. In the area of the calculated resistance, it is recommended to track the reversal signals for selling the pair. EUR/JPY Analysis: The direction of the pair's price movement in the last month and a half points to the north of the price chart. Since the beginning of December, quotes have been moving sideways along a strong resistance, forming an intermediate correction. Forecast: In the next trading session, the price rise is expected to continue until it ends in the area of the calculated resistance. Then you can wait for the formation of a reversal and the beginning of a price decline. There is a small probability of a breakout of the support zone in the current day. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 126.50/126.80 Support: - 125.60/125.30 Recommendations: The pair's upcoming moves are against the main trend, so selling the pair may be risky. It is safer to refrain from trading until the entire correction is complete and look for signals to enter long positions at the end of it. USD/CHF Analysis: The chart of the Swiss franc major this year is dominated by the trend of strengthening the national currency against the dollar. On November 11, the final part of the main wave started. In the last 2 weeks, a counter-side correction is formed on the chart in the form of an expanding triangle or "stretched plane" according to Elliott. This wave is nearing completion. Forecast: In the next trading sessions, the end of the upward section, the formation of a reversal, and the beginning of a price decline are expected. The last phase may coincide with the release of important news and have increased volatility. Potential reversal zones Resistance: - 0.8920/0.8950 Support: - 0.8850/0.8820 Recommendations: When buying a franc, you should take into account the limitations of the current price growth. In the area of the calculated resistance, it is recommended to track the reversal signals for selling the instrument. Explanation: In the simplified wave analysis (UVA), waves consist of 3 parts (A-B-C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. The solid background of the arrows shows the formed structure, and the dotted one shows the expected movements. Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of the instrument's movements in time! Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 14, 2020 2020-12-14 Overview : The GBP/USD pair is struggling to hold onto the level of 1.3228 (close price) after hitting a low of 1.3134 (bottom) on the H1 chart. Last week, the GBP/USD pair dropped to as low as 1.3134 as fall form 1.3538 extends (top). Further decline is in favor this week as long as 1.3538 major resistance holds. Current price set at the point of 1.3228. Strong support will be found at the level of 1.3134 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 1.3288 (pivot point). On the upside, above 1.3288 minor resistance will turn intraday bias bullish market first. In overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario as long as the price is above the level of 1.3134. In addition, if the GBP/USD pair is able to break out the first resistance at 1.3288, the market will climp further to 1.3384. The level of 1.3134 coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor resistance today. Since the trend is above the double bottom (1.3134), the market is still in an uptrend. Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.3134 support and above. Some support is at the new low of 1.3134. It is followed by 1.3050, 1.3134 and 1.3050, all levels that were in play back in December. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 1.3288, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 1.3384 in order to test the daily resistance 1. The GBP/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 1.3384. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Rise from could either be a correction or starting a long term up trend. In either case, next target will be 38.2% retracement of 1.3288 to 1.3384 at 1.3449. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.3449 and further to the level of 1.3538 so as to the double top. Nevertheless, rejection by 1.3449 will maintain medium term bearishness for another lower below 1.3449 at a later stage. Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 14, 2020 2020-12-14 Overview : The EUR/USD pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the level of 1.2080 last week. The level of 1.2080 coincides with a golden ratio (61.8% of Fibonacci, pivot point), which is expected to act as major support today. The market opened above the weekly pivot point. It continued to move upwards from the level of 1.2080 to the top around 1.2154. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.2177 followed by 1.2220, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.2080. Right now, the pair is trading above this level (1.2080). It is likely to trade in a higher range as long as it remains above the support (1.2080) which is expected to act as major support today. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. The trend is still calling for a strong bullish market from the spot of 1.2080. Note that buyers are bidding for a low price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests the pair will probably go up in coming hours. This would suggest a bullish market because the moving average (100) is still in a positive area and does not show any signs of a trend reversal at the moment. Amid the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2080 and 1.2220, so we expect a range of 140 pips in coming hours. Therefore, the major support can be found at 1.2080 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 1.2177. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 1.2177, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level of 1.2220 in order to test the daily resistance 2. Overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario which suggests that the pair will stay above the area of 1.2080 this week. However, stop loss should always be taken into account, accordingly, it will be beneficial to set the stop loss below the last bearish wave at 1.2050. Forecast : Buy orders are recommended above 1.2080 with the first target at the level of 1.2177. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 1.2220 and further to the level of 1.2256. The level of 1.2177 will act as strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 1.2177. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 1.2050, then this scenario may be invalidated. EUR/USD and GBP/USD: Federal Reserve to publish latest data on the United States. Meanwhile, pound bulls are looking forward to the intervention of key European leaders. 2020-12-14 The euro appears to be gearing up to resume gains this week, however, an increase will only happen if Republicans and Democrats finally agree on a new US stimulus package, and if the UK and the EU signs a post-Brexit trade agreement. Last week, the deadline for negotiations was again set, and it was supposed to end this Sunday. But the leaders decided to continue their dialogue this week, the reason for which was not reported. As a result, pound bulls remained optimistic and continued to set up long positions in the GBP / USD pair. Regarding the long-awaited US stimulus, on Friday, the US Senate approved a bill to finance the work of the government for another week, thus giving lawmakers time to agree on a new package of measures to help the economy. Last week, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin proposed to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi a package worth $ 916 billion, which includes state and municipal funding. The program essentially echoes Donald Trump's proposed package which states that households would receive $ 600 per person in direct benefits, however, it lacked the $ 300 weekly unemployment benefit supplement. Nonetheless, if this package is approved, the US dollar will undergo additional pressure, thereby weakening its position against the euro. At the moment though, the movement of the EUR / USD pair depends on whether the quote successfully breaks above 1.2165 or not. Going beyond this level will make it easier for the euro to reach 1.2250 and 1.2340, but if the quote returns and moves below 1.2060, the EUR / USD pair will collapse to 1.1980 and then to 1.1890. Meanwhile, rather bad news emerged in Europe, when the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) decided to tighten restrictive measures from December 16 to January 10, 2021. All shops except for those who sell food and essential goods will be closed from December 16, and selling of alcohol in public places will also be prohibited. No more than 5 people representing two households are also allowed to meet. The service sector is seriously affected as well. Aside from the closing of salons, it is now forbidden to use dishes and other products in establishments that sell them. All that remains for public catering is to work on delivery and pickup. The only good news related to the coronavirus was the decision of the US Food and Drug Administration to approve the application of pharmaceutical companies, Pfizer and BioNTech, to register their COVID-19 vaccine under an accelerated procedure. The US Department of Health said that there is every reason to consider the developed vaccine effective. In another note, this week, the Federal Reserve will publish latest data on the United States, including economic forecasts from the FOMC. Last Friday, a document was released in which the regulator said it is going to provide charts indicating how much uncertainty the Fed sees in variables such as GDP, unemployment rate and inflation, which once again confirms the fact that forecasting these main indicators is now a rather complicated process, especially considering the many risk factors. The Central Bank has decided to allow investors to draw their own conclusions. At the moment though, US consumer sentiment came out much better than expected. The report published by the University of Michigan said the preliminary index of consumer sentiment jumped immediately to 81.4 points this early December, while economists had expected it to reach only 75.5 points. Unsurprisingly, much of the growth was driven by news about the vaccine, as well as on more positive sentiments about economic recovery. Household personal finance expectations also remained unchanged, which is a plus in this situation. As for the data on inflation, US PPI rose by 0.1% this November, while the underlying index, which excludes volatile categories, also gained 0.1%. The annual growth of the PPI was 0.8%. GBP/USD On Friday, the Bank of England said its current banking system is resilient in the face of downward risks associated with the pandemic. Therefore, it expects that risks of financial instability due to Brexit will not have serious pressure on the functioning of the entire system. During his speech, Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that banks will remain strong even in the event of a more negative than expected economic situation. He said that most of the risks associated with Brexit have been mitigated, but failures in providing services to customers in the EU will occur at the very beginning of the period of adaptation of the banking system to new conditions. With regards to Brexit and negotiations, which were supposed to end last Sunday, the parties once again agreed to continue negotiations this week, and now many market participants expect the intervention of key European leaders - German Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Emmanuel Macron. Many expect a trade deal to be signed at the last moment, which gives confidence to pound bulls, thereby keeping the currency at its current high price levels. But at the moment, movement of the GBP/USD pair depends on whether the quote breaks out of 1.3340, as only by that will the pound be able to reach levels 1.3390 and 1.3490. But if the quote returns and moves below 1.3245, the GBP/USD pair will collapse to 1.3190, and then to 1.3140. GBP/USD. December 12. COT report: major players are buying up the pound in the hope that London and Brussels will still be able to agree before the New Year 2020-12-14 GBP/USD – 1H. According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair fell by the end of last week to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3176). The rebound of quotes from this level allowed us to perform a reversal in favor of the British and start the growth process, which continued tonight to the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.3375). This level was followed by a rebound, which allows us to expect a new drop in quotes in the direction of 1.3264 and 1.3176. There is also a descending trend line nearby, which characterizes the current mood of traders as "bearish". The end of the past week brought exactly the news that traders were waiting for. London and Brussels continued negotiations until Sunday, as planned, and on December 13, Ursula von der Leyen and Boris Johnson made a joint statement, from which it follows that there is still no significant progress in the negotiations, and the parties decided to continue them as long as there are at least a slim chance of signing a deal. This means that Michel Barnier and David Frost will now work until at least December 31 or so. It will not be surprising if the negotiations are eventually extended to 2021. A few months ago, this option looked fantastic, but now, when Brexit is only a little more than 2 weeks away, this is a very real prospect. The main thing to understand is that neither the UK nor the EU want a "No Deal" Brexit. Therefore, it is in their interest to continue trying to negotiate. Although, of course, if an agreement is not reached in the last days of the outgoing year, then the negotiations may be over. GBP/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 61.8% (1.3174), a reversal in favor of the British and a consolidation above the Fibo level of 76.4% (1.3291). Thus, the growth process can now continue in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). The bullish divergence of the CCI indicator also worked in favor of the beginning of the pair's growth. But the potential of bull traders is still constrained by the trend line on the hourly chart. GBP/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a rebound from the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). And this rebound remains the most important and clear signal on all charts. If the rebound is not false (and so far it does not look false), then the British pound is waiting for a significant drop. GBP/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the second downward trend line. A rebound from it in the long term will mean a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a long fall in the British dollar's quotes. Overview of fundamentals: On Friday in the UK, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey made a speech in which he said that the regulator is doing everything possible to reduce the risks of a possible Brexit "No Deal". There was no more news. The economic calendar for the US and the UK: On December 14, the calendars of economic events in the UK and USA is completely empty, so the background information will be absent that day. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: The latest COT report showed a new increase in the number of long contracts held by speculators. This time, their total number increased by 2,866 contracts, while the number of short contracts decreased by 9,189 units. Thus, the mood of speculators has become much more "bullish" and is becoming so for the third week in a row. Given this fact, the growth of the British dollar is quite understandable, although the information background is not entirely on the side of the British currency. However, given that speculators have again taken up quite large purchases of the pound, we can assume its new growth. In this regard, I recommend that you carefully monitor the level of 1.3513 on the daily chart. Closing above it will confirm the intention of traders to re-open long contracts. The total number of open long and short contracts for all groups of traders remains approximately the same. GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: At this time, I recommend that you be extremely careful with opening any deals on the British. The pair continues to move very raggedly and often changes direction. I recommend making new purchases of the British dollar if it is fixed above the trend line on the hourly chart with the target level of 200.0% (1.3499). I recommend selling the British dollar with targets of 1.3264 and 1.3176 if a new rebound is made from the level of 161.8% or the trend line on the hourly chart. Terms: "Non-commercial" - large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. EUR/USD. December 14. COT report: speculators continue to increase purchases of the European currency. 2020-12-14 EUR/USD – 1H. On December 11, the EUR/USD pair performed a fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2094), but this morning it turned in favor of the European currency and seeks to resume the growth process in the direction of the Fibo level of 261.8% (1.2201). Although all the traffic of the last week passes almost in a side corridor. Nevertheless, the rising trend line (new) characterizes the mood of traders now as "bullish". Last week ended more than boring. There were no reports or important news that day. However, there were plenty of them on Thursday. Traders again interpreted all the information received in their own way, so there were no sharp changes in the dynamics of the pair. Nevertheless, both positive and negative news came from the European Union. Let me remind you that the European Central Bank has decided to expand the PEPP program (countering the economic consequences of the pandemic) by another 500 billion euros (previously it had already done this for 600 billion), and also extended its validity for 9 months. And this is bad for the euro. On the other hand, Poland and Hungary withdrew their vetoes concerning the 750 billion euro economic recovery fund and the 1.1 trillion euro budget for 2021-2027. Thus, all beneficiaries will now receive their funds. And this is good for the euro. However, in general, the pair continued to trade in a very limited range, despite all these reports. EUR/USD – 4H. On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the European currency and resumed the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). The upward trend line still characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish". As long as the quotes do not consolidate under this trend line, you should not expect a strong fall in the pair. EUR/USD – Daily. On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the Fibo level of 323.6% (1.2079), which allows traders to expect continued growth in the direction of the next corrective level of 423.6% (1.2495). And until the pair completes the consolidation below the level of 323.6%, there are still high chances of growth. EUR/USD – Weekly. On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term. Overview of fundamentals: On December 11, in the European Union and America, the calendars of economic events were completely empty. Thus, the information background was zero. The news calendar for the United States and the European Union: On December 14, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and America are almost empty. There will only be a couple of non-important reports, such as industrial production in the European Union, which are unlikely to interest traders. COT (Commitments of Traders) report: For the fourth week in a row, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders has become more "bullish". This is indicated by COT reports and it coincides with what is happening now for the euro/dollar pair. During the reporting week, speculators opened as many as 13,000 new long contracts (more than in the previous three weeks), and also got rid of 300 short contracts. Thus, they significantly increased their "bullish" mood. The gap between the total number of long and short contracts in the hands of the "Non-commercial" category is growing again. Therefore, the European currency now continues to maintain high chances of continuing growth, although a month ago it was preparing for a powerful fall. The "Commercial" category of traders, on the contrary, opened short contracts, but it always trades against speculators. And we pay attention primarily to them. EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders: Today, I recommend selling the euro with a target of 1.2060, if the consolidation is made under the trend line on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair could be opened by fixing quotes above the descending corridor with the goal of 1.2175 and 1.2201. Trades have been held recently without a clear advantage of bulls or bears, but the 4-hour and daily charts keep high chances of growth with their signals. Terms: "Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors. "Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations. "Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price. Trading plan for the EUR/USD pair on December 14. Mass vaccinations have begun. 2020-12-14 According to the latest data, global COVID-19 incidence has retreated from peak levels, only reaching 539,000 this weekend, which is 25% below the maximum. The number of deaths has also dropped. In the United States, morbidity has dropped below 200,000. Further positive news is that following the start of mass vaccination in the UK last Friday, the United States will also begin today. The vaccination rate is projected to be enormous- up to 20 million are expected to be vaccinated by the end of December. And today, 2.9 million doses are to be delivered to the vaccination centers. To add to that, the vaccination plan of the UK and the US are the same. First to be injected will be of the oldest ages (over 80 years old, and then over 60 years old). EUR / USD: A new upward wave has started in the euro. Open long positions from 1.2165. Open sell positions from 1.2058. On Wednesday, December 16, the Fed will publish its minutes, which will include latest economic data for the United States. But in the meantime, today, the electoral college is to formally elect Joe Biden as President of the United States. Forex forecast 12/14/2020 on AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Gold from Sebastian Seliga 2020-12-14 Let's take a look at the AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Gold markets at the beginning of the trading week. Make money Deposit funds Author's today's articles: Maxim Magdalinin In 2005 graduated from the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Belarus, law faculty. Worked as a lawyer for three years in one of the biggest country's company. Besides the trading, he develops trading systems, writes articles and analytical reviews. Works at stock and commodity markets explorations. On Forex since 2006. Torben Melsted Born in November 1962. Graduated from CBS, got Diploma in Finance. Began trading on Forex in 1986 and since that time held various positions such as advising clients, hedging client flows on FX and commodity markets. Also worked for major corporations as Financial Risk Manager. Uses Elliott wave analysis in combination with classic technical analysis, and has been using a Calmar Ratio of 5.0 for over 3 years. Has his own blog, where he uses Elliott wave and technical analysis on all financial markets. Sergey Belyaev Born December 1, 1955. In 1993 graduated from Air Force Engineering Academy. In September 1999 started to study Forex markets. Since 2002 has been reading lectures on the technical analysis . Is fond of research work. Created a personal trading system based on the indicator analysis. Authored the book on technical analysis "Calculation of the next candlestick". At present the next book is being prepared for publishing "Indicator Analysis of Forex Market. Trading System Encyclopedia". Has created eleven courses on indicator analysis. Uses classical indicators. Works as a public lecturer. Held numerous seminars and workshops presented at international exhibitions of financial markets industry. Is known as one of the best specialists in the Russian Federation researching indicator analysis. Sebastian Seliga Sebastian Seliga was born on 13th Oсtober 1978 in Poland. He graduated in 2005 with MA in Social Psychology. He has worked for leading financial companies in Poland where he actively traded on NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ exchanges. Sebastian started Forex trading in 2009 and mastered Elliott Wave Principle approach to the markets by developing and implementing his own trading strategies of Forex analysis.  Since 2012, he has been writing analitical reviews based on EWP for blogs and for Forex websites and forums. He has developed several on-line projects devoted to Forex trading and investments. He is interested in slow cooking, stand-up comedy, guitar playing, reading and swimming. "Every battle is won before it is ever fought", Sun Tzu l Kolesnikova text Irina Manzenko Irina Manzenko Vyacheslav Ognev Vyacheslav was born on August 24, 1971. In 1993, he graduated from Urals State University of Economics in the Russian city of Ekaterinburg holding a degree in Commerce and Economics of Trade. In 2007, he started concentrating on the Russian stock market, trading stocks on the RTS Stock Exchange and futures contracts on FORTS. Since 2008 he has been engaged in analyzing Forex market and trading currencies. He is an author of a simplified wave analysis method. He has also developed a trading strategy. At present, Vyacheslav is a co-author of training materials on two web portals dedicated to Forex trading education. Interests: fitness, F1 "Experience is the best of schoolmasters, only the school fees are heavy." - Thomas Carlyle Mourad El Keddani Was born in Oujda, Morocco. Currently lives in Belgium. In 2003 obtained B.S. in Experimental Sciences. In 2007 obtained a graduate diploma at Institut Marocain Specialise en Informatique Applique (IMSIA), specialty – Software Engineering Analyst. In 2007–2009 worked as teacher of computer services and trainer in a professional school specializing in computer technologies and accounting. In 2005 started Forex trading. Authored articles and analytical reviews on Forex market on Forex websites and forums. Since 2008 performs Forex market research, and develops and implements his own trading strategies of Forex analysis (especially in Forex Research & Analysis, Currency Forecast, and Recommendations and Analysis) that lies in: Numerical analysis: Probabilities, equations and techniques of applying Fibonacci levels. Classical analysis: Breakout strategy and trend indicators. Uses obtained skills to manage traders' accounts since 2009. In April 2009 was certified Financial Technician by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. Winner of several social work awards: Education Literacy and Non-Formal Education (in Literacy and Adult Education in The National Initiative for Human Development). Languages: Arabic, English, French and Dutch. Interests: Algorithm, Graphics, Social work, Psychology and Philosophy. Pavel Vlasov No data Grigory Sokolov Born 1 January, 1986. In 2008 graduated from Kiev Institute of Business and Technology with "Finance and Credit" as a major. Since 2008 has studied the behavior of various currency pairs and their correlation on Forex. In his works and trading practice he uses candlestick analysis and Fibonacci technique. Since 2009 has written analytical reviews and articles which are published on popular Internet resources. Interests: music, computers and cookery. "Out of five deadly sins of business and as a rule, the most widespread, excessive striving to get profit is the worst". P. Drucker Mihail Makarov - Subscription's options management Theme's: Fundamental analysis, Fractal analysis, Wave analysis, Technical analysis, Stock Markets Author's : A Zotova, Aleksey Almazov, Alexander Dneprovskiy, Alexandr Davidov, Alexandros Yfantis, Andrey Shevchenko, Arief Makmur, Dean Leo, Evgeny Klimov, Fedor Pavlov, Grigory Sokolov, I Belozerov, Igor Kovalyov, Irina Manzenko, Ivan Aleksandrov, l Kolesnikova, Maxim Magdalinin, Mihail Makarov, Mohamed Samy, Mourad El Keddani, Oleg Khmelevskiy, Oscar Ton, Pavel Vlasov, Petar Jacimovic, R Agafonov, S Doronina, Sebastian Seliga, Sergey Belyaev, Sergey Mityukov, Stanislav Polyanskiy, T Strelkova, Torben Melsted, V Isakov, Viktor Vasilevsky, Vladislav Tukhmenev, Vyacheslav Ognev, Yuriy Zaycev, Zhizhko Nadezhda Edit data of subscription settings Unsubscribe from the mailing list Sincerely, Analysts Service If you have any questions, you can make a phone call using one of the InstaForex Toll free numbers right now: 1 866 8000 719 0 8000 51 88 99 0 800 898 548 1 800 882 528 001 803 017 910 0 800 500 329 822 140 799 8 800 080 5553 Other countries +7 (499) 7042343, +7 (812) 4580351 E-mail: support@instaforex.com InstaForex Group is an international brand providing online trading services to the clients all over the world. 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