Monday, December 14, 2020

Our VC predictions for 2021

Froth meets fear in private debt; Abcellera stock soars ~200% after IPO; Examining exit routes for GP stakes; TPG-backed SPAC lines up $1.4B merger
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The Daily Pitch: VC, PE and M&A
December 14, 2020
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Today's Top Stories
Private debt rides out crisis despite fears of loose deal terms
(Oscar Wong/Getty Images)
Amid the unprecedented economic emergency caused by the coronavirus, many private debt managers are facing their first real test since the global financial crisis. The frothy market and loose lending habits that preceded 2020 have fueled fears that some aren't prepared for a downturn—and a wave of defaults could be imminent.

Yet while there have been casualties, the industry has shown resilience, and many direct lenders have fared better than anticipated. This is especially true for those who targeted specific sectors and strategies:
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Pharma fundings, SPACs and our other VC predictions for 2021
The ongoing rollout of COVID-19 vaccines will help shape VC in 2021. (Karen Ducey/Getty Images)
After 2020 turned into a year nobody saw coming, trying to predict what will unfold in the next 12 months of VC dealmaking might seem like an ambitious errand. Luckily, it's one for which our analyst team is well equipped.

The rollout of vaccines and the future of the pandemic will have obvious influence on what's to come. So too will the presence of a new administration in the White House, with the potential for major changes to policies on taxes, immigration and trade. What will it all mean? Here are a few of our best guesses for what's ahead in 2021:
  • After a record-breaking 2020, biotech and pharma VC deal activity will again top $20 billion

  • Fewer than 30% of the SPACs that went public in 2020 will close an acquisition in 2021

  • The Bay Area will fall below a 20% share of US deal count for the first time
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A message from Lincoln International
PE investors expect deal activity to be up in 2021—but with specific priorities, survey says
Lincoln International
In a recent survey conducted by Lincoln International, 88% of private equity investors indicate their most important objective for 2021 is deploying capital, a nearly 10-point increase from 79% in 2020.

Investors remain focused on identifying acquisition targets, with 89% expecting to be more active in buying than selling portfolio companies in 2021. However, they face the continued challenge of a supply-demand imbalance of quality businesses. Given the shortage of quality buying opportunities, investors are willing to pay higher multiples for these businesses, and Lincoln anticipates investors will work quickly to complete these deals.

For sellers, the key to success will be a quality management team that has a strong pandemic story to tell. Those who can explain the specific steps they took to manage through the crisis and unlock new potential for future growth will achieve the best outcomes.

To explore additional results of Lincoln's survey of private equity investors and outlook for 2021, click here.
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The many routes to liquidity for GP stakes investors
When an investor acquires a minority stake in a private equity firm—usually referred to as a GP stakes deal—it is often doing so for the long haul. But even asset managers with the longest horizons may eventually feel pressure around achieving some sort of liquidity from these deals. And doing so isn't always simple.

Our new analyst note takes a thorough look at the myriad possible paths to liquidity that are available to GP stakes investors, including multi-asset sales, single-asset sales, partial sales and dividend recaps. Some are more challenging, some are more feasible—but familiarity with them all may be key for GP stakes investors moving forward:
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EVBox to go public in $1.4B TPG SPAC
TPG Pace Beneficial Finance, a special-purpose acquisition company formed by TPG Capital, has agreed to buy EVBox, a Dutch company that builds electric vehicle charging stations, from French utility group Engie for $1.4 billion. Engie, which acquired EVBox in 2017, will keep a 40% stake.

The combined entity will have about $425 million in cash on hand, including a $225 million private placement from a group of investors including Wellington Management, BlackRock, Neuberger Berman and Inclusive Capital Partners, once the deal is closed.

Founded in 2010, EVBox makes EV charging hardware and software and maintains a network of 190,000 stations across 70 countries. The company will use the capital to expand its global network. TPG Pace raised $350 million for its IPO in October.
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Recommended Reads
As a teenager, Taihei Kobayashi spent two winters sleeping on the streets of Tokyo. Now, he's the CEO of a billion-dollar tech startup. [Bloomberg]

In the early days of the pandemic, life in the small town of Mitchell, S.D., went along pretty much as it always has. Then people started dying. [The Washington Post]

Some of the biggest oil and gas companies in the world have very different opinions about the industry's future. The same is true for oil and gas investors. [The Wall Street Journal]
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  2015 Vintage Global Venture Funds with more than $250M  
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  Squire picks up $59M Series C  
  Orbex lands $24M to fund rocket launch  
  PE Deals  
  CVC Capital strikes $700M deal in Myanmar  
  Norwest Equity purchases Red Monkey in SBO  
  Exits & IPOs  
  Roblox, Affirm pause IPO plans  
  AbCellera soars nearly 200% in market debut  
  Lidar maker Innoviz to merge with SPAC  
  Lightning eMotors to go public via SPAC merger  
  Gores pulls in $300M with latest blank-check listing  
  Fundraising  
  Waterland raises $3B for new fund  
  Corporate M&A  
  EA inks deal for racing game publisher Codemasters  
 
 
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People
Benchmark adds general partner
Miles Grimshaw has signed on with Benchmark as a general partner. The 29-year-old investor placed early bets on Airtable, Segment and Benchling, and was previously a general partner at Thrive Capital.
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VC Deals
Squire picks up $59M Series C
Squire has raised $59 million in a round led by Iconiq Capital, with participation from investors including Tiger Global and Trinity Ventures. The New York-based company develops barbershop management software designed to help barbers operate their businesses with cashless transactions. In June, Squire raised a $34 million Series B at an $85 million valuation, according to PitchBook data.
Select Additional Investors:
CRV, SoftBank
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Orbex lands $24M to fund rocket launch
Octopus Ventures and BGF have led a $24 million investment in UK-based space launch company Orbex. The capital will go toward funding the first launch of the environmentally sustainable Orbex Prime rocket, which is expected in 2022.
Existing Investors:
Elecnor, Heartcore Capital, High-Tech Gründerfonds
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PE Deals
CVC Capital strikes $700M deal in Myanmar
CVC Capital Partners has agreed to acquire Irrawaddy Green Towers in a deal that values the Myanmar-based telecom provider at $700 million, including debt, according to Reuters. Founded in 2014, Irrawaddy operates about 100,000 telecom towers around the world.
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Norwest Equity purchases Red Monkey in SBO
Norwest Equity Partners has acquired Red Monkey Foods, a provider of spices and seasonings, from San Francisco Equity Partners, which had owned the Missouri-based company since 2017. Red Monkey previously received a $23.8 million equity investment from undisclosed investors in 2018, according to an SEC filing.
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Exits & IPOs
Roblox, Affirm pause IPO plans
Roblox and Affirm, two high-valued tech companies that were poised to go public soon, are putting off their planned IPOs in light of the bullish debuts last week by Airbnb and DoorDash. Roblox, an online videogame company, and Affirm, a consumer lending platform that was valued last year at $2.9 billion, had been expected to join an end-of-year IPO stampede. But both companies are now looking to get back on track early next year, The Wall Street Journal reported. Affirm's reasons for postponing were unclear. As for Roblox, the decision allows the company time to adjust its deal's pricing and other matters in line with the intense investor appetite that has greeted new issues coming to market, the Journal reported. Roblox has raised more than $335 million, most recently at a $4 billion valuation in February, according to PitchBook.
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AbCellera soars nearly 200% in market debut
Stock in AbCellera, the biotech company co-developing a COVID-19 antibody treatment with Eli Lilly, surged some 195% on its first day of trading on the Nasdaq. The company's closing stock price on Friday was $58.90 per share. It raised $483 million after pricing its shares at $20 apiece. AbCellera's investors include Peter Thiel, DCVC Bio and Viking Global.
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Lidar maker Innoviz to merge with SPAC
Innoviz Technologies plans to go public by merging with special-purpose acquisition company Collective Growth. The deal gives Innoviz a total of $350 million in gross proceeds, including a $200 million PIPE investment led by Antara Capital, with support from Magna International, Phoenix Insurance and others. Innoviz is working with BMW to bring its light detection and ranging technology for autonomous vehicles to market. The startup's existing investors include China Merchants Capital, SoftBank and Samsung.
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Lightning eMotors to go public via SPAC merger
Electric vehicle maker Lightning eMotors has agreed to merge with GigCapital3, a blank-check company. The Loveland, Colo.-based startup is developing battery- and fuel cell-powered vans, buses and trucks. Lightning eMotors will be valued at around $823 million in the deal, which includes a $125 million PIPE investment from existing investor BP Technology Ventures and others.
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Gores pulls in $300M with latest blank-check listing
The Gores Group has raised $300 million in an IPO for Gores Holdings VI, the firm's latest special-purpose acquisition company, selling 30 million shares for $10 each. The news comes after Gores pulled in $525 million in August for Gores Holdings V by selling 52.5 million units at $10 apiece.
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View 161 investments »
 
Fundraising
Waterland raises $3B for new fund
Dutch firm Waterland Private Equity Investments has closed its eighth flagship fund on €2.5 billion (about $3 billion), three months after the vehicle's launch. Waterland will use the vehicle to continue its buy-and-build strategy, with a focus on medium-sized European companies in fragmented growth markets.
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Corporate M&A
EA inks deal for racing game publisher Codemasters
Electronic Arts has agreed to buy UK-based videogame publisher Codemasters in a deal valuing it at around $1.2 billion. EA's 604 pence per share bid represents a 14.4% premium on an earlier offer from Take-Two Interactive Software last month, which the Codemasters board initially accepted but has since withdrawn its recommendation. Codemasters develops racing games for various platforms, including Formula One's officially licensed F1 series of games.
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Chart of the Day
Source: PitchBook's Q3 2020 North American M&A Report
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