Thursday, September 24, 2020

FX Strategy 24 Sep 2020

 
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FX Strategy 24 Sep 2020

 

In the G10 FX Market, USD and GBP are the top gainers today while NOK and AUD are the top losers, down -1.4% and -1.35% versus the dollar, respectively. In the rates market, global yields were trading mixed today. The UK 10-year was trading at 0.219, up 1.4bp. The US 10-year was trading at 0.677, up 0.6bp. The German 10-year was trading at -0.502, flat 0.0bp. The Japan 10-year was trading at 0.006, down -0.1bp.

 

In the Asian equities, markets were trading mixed today. The Hang Seng was trading at 23742.51, up 0.11%. The Kospi was trading at 2333.24, up 0.03%. The Nikkei 225 was trading at 23346.49, down -0.06%. In the European equities, indices were trading firm today. The FTSE 100 was trading at 5899.26, up 1.2%. The DAX 30 was trading at 12642.97, up 0.39%. The Euro Stoxx 50 was trading at 3180.11, up 0.51%.

 

Looking at Equity Futures so far, the FTSE100 Futures was trading at 5832.5, up 0.27%. The Euro Stoxx 50 Futures was trading at 3141.0, down -0.7%. The SP500 Futures was trading at 3230.75, down -2.08%.

 

In the Energy space, Oil futures were trading weaker today. The WTI Crude Futures was trading at 39.59, down -0.03%. The Brent Crude Futures was trading at 41.48, down -0.58%.

 

In terms of economic data releases, we have already had September data Business Confidence from France (Actual 96 v Forecast 93) and Turkey (Actual 105.3 v Forecast 97) and Capacity Utilization from Turkey (Actual 74.6% v Forecast 72.5%). This morning we look forward to Ifo Business Climate from Germany (Previous 92.6 v Forecast 93) at 08:00 GMT and UK CBI Distributive Trades (Previous -6 v Forecast -12) at 10:00 GMT. TCMB Interest Rate Decision follows at 11:00 GMT with no change expected from the current 8.25% rate.

 

Moving into the afternoon session, we have weekly US Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 860K v Forecast 840K) and Continuing Claims (Previous 12628K v Forecast 12100K) data at 12:30 GMT. US New Home Sales MoM for August follows at 14:00 GMT (Previous 13.9% v Forecast -2.3%) alongside a number of speakers with Bank of England Governor Bailey, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's Testimony and Fed's Chair Powell also testifying. Bundesbank's Wuermeling is speaking at 15:00 GMT also. Later we have Interest Rate Decision from Mexico (Previous 4.5% v Forecast 4.25%) and Fed's Williams is due to speak at 18:00 GMT, with South Korean Consumer Confidence for September released at 21:00 GMT (Previous 88.2 v Forecast 85).

 

10-Year Yields Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Daily FX Pivots

 
 

Brent Crude Daily Chart (1-month)

 
 

Forex Chart and Technical Analysis

 

EURUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 1.1641 for 1.1725
Short-term view: EURUSD MACD and RSI are flat but support comes in at 1.1641 and we see a rise to 1.1725 enter at 1.166. Below 1.1641 to open 1.1591

 

GBPUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 1.2772 for 1.2673
Short-term view: GBPUSD MACD and RSI are flat but resistance comes in at 1.2772 and we see a dip to 1.2673 enter at 1.2739. Above 1.2772 to open 1.2832

 

USDJPY Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Support at 104.8 for 105.87
Short-term view: USDJPY support comes in at 104.8 MACD and RSI have a bullish bias. Hence, we see a bounce to 105.87 enter at 105.15. Below 104.8 to open 104.53

 

AUDUSD Chart (Two-week)

 
 

Strategy: Resistance at 0.7105 for 0.7055
Short-term view: AUDUSD resistance comes in at 0.7105 MACD and RSI have a bearish bias. Hence, we see a dip to 0.7055 enter at 0.7088. Above 0.7105 to open 0.7137

 
 
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